Finley by the numbers

by ziggy on Sep 28, 2005 3:23 AM PDT

i noticed during the game that finley's rbi numbers aren't that horrific, considering his awful season. but i looked at the numbers compared to last year and was surprised to find out how similar his numbers really are:

More below the fold:

Last year he went: 628 ABs, 28 Doubles, 36 HRs, 94 RBI

2005 Season to Date, he's gone: 391 ABs, 20 Doubles, 12 HRs, 54 RBI

Okay, not the most productive season in the history of the world. However, adjusting for a full season of ABs (last year's 628) shows that, at his season-long below average, tear-our-hair-out-that-he-is-still-in-the-lineup pace extrapolated to playing a full season, he actually comes VERY close to last year's production numbers:

628 ABs adjusts to: 32 doubles (12 more than last year), 22 HRs (14 less than last year), and 88 RBI (only SIX! less than last year -- and all of this considering he's hitting 50 points lower than he did last year!

The homerun disparity is the only real eye-popping production drop (other than the 50 point drop in batting average, but the sharp increase in doubles may
account for this: 12 more doubles, 14 less homeruns --> half of those were probably a drop in distance per fly ball, the other half due to ballpark differentials -- but his rate of extra base hits actually went up this year, he averaged 1 extra-base hit per 2.4 ABs this season, last year it was 1 per every 2.8 ABs.

If he hadn't been injured and tried to play through it, he likely would have been able to top 100 rbis even if he only hit .240. not bad. If he had put up a season of hitting .240-.250, with 22-25, homeruns, 30+ doubles, and 90 rbi, would he really have been such a disappointment, statistically? (the strike-outs with the bases loaded still suck). I'm not so sure it would have been, considering what he put up last year. The only real difference would have been an upswing in doubles and a downswing in homeruns, offset by the equal number of RBIs.

Food for thought, at least. Now, he just better not screw up in the playoffs.

Poll

In 2006, Juan Rivera will be...

The everyday left fielder (Garrett DH)

8 votes

The 4th outfielder, platooning with Finley

8 votes

Playing for another team (traded)

2 votes

18 votes | Poll has closed

This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.

Tweet Comment 4 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

interesting

i'm not a stathead by any stretch of the imagination (no smartass comments from you, Rev).

can any of our resident number-crunchers comment on ziggy's assessment?

by yeswecan on Sep 28, 2005 3:21 PM PDT reply actions

I think it means...

if Finley was playing hockey he'd have about 5-6 good years left, but because it's baseball he's like an old man trying to return soup at a deli.

since 1961

by Chompo on Sep 28, 2005 3:53 PM PDT reply actions

props for the seinfeld reference

"The sea was angry that day, my friend, like an old man trying to return soup at a deli." - George Costanza, in the episode where he removes a golf ball from the whale's blow hole.

by ziggy on Sep 28, 2005 6:43 PM PDT up reply actions

The Marine Biologist

"So I started to walk into the water. I won't lie to you boys, I was terrified. But I pressed on, and as I made my way past the breakers a strange calm came over me. I don't know if it was divine intervention or the kinship of all living things, but I tell you Jerry, at that moment I was a marine biologist."

Halo Country

by cupie on Sep 28, 2005 7:40 PM PDT up reply actions