How about this trade?

by RallyMonkey5 on Nov 2, 2006 7:56 PM PST

Here's a trade that would get us one of the best hitters in the game:

On BTF, I got into a discussion with some Red Sox fans and wound up negotiating a trade:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/sox_therapy/discussion/the_manny_question_again/

Colon, Juan Rivera, and Erick Aybar for Manny Ramirez and Mike Lowell.

Our payroll increases by 11 million, but we've upgraded two spots hitting, one on defense. Our lineup looks like:

CF Figgins
SS OC
RF Vladimir
DH Manny
LF Anderson
3B Lowell
1B Kendry KotchPherson
2B Kendrick
C Napoli

And the rotation is the same as what we ended 2006 with. Now all we need is some bullpen help.

We'd need to know

A) if Manny is going to complain about being the primary DH or not - though he'd still get some OF time when Vlad/GA need rests

B) He'd accept the trade, and not demand we guarantee his option years in return for waiving his 5/10 rights.

What do you guys think? Should we tell Bill our am I fired from trade negotiations?

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Comments

And then

trade Figgy for bullpen help and put Willits ic CF

by Rev Halofan on Nov 2, 2006 7:55 PM PST reply actions

I don't want Manny.

by Obscurity on Nov 2, 2006 8:05 PM PST reply actions

What's in it for Boston?

A prospect who runs real fast when he already knows when to make left turns, but is yet to figure out big league fielding. To replace what is arguably one of the AL's most productive 3B (defensively).
A pitcher who once was a stud, but now needs to totally prove that he is healthy enough to come back from a major injury, overcome gross obesity, and pray to reach 91mph again. At the tail end of his career.
And a replacement LF who is a major step up on defense, but a fraction of Manny's offense.

And you say you talked Boston fans into this deal? That explains a lot.

Check yer daily ' toons here!

by Stirrups on Nov 2, 2006 8:10 PM PST reply actions

What's in it for Boston

A young top prospect, the contract year of a comeback-trail Cy Young winner and 85% of Manny's offense for 1/18th the cost.

Oh and a savings of $40 million, plus two over-the-hill types regress in Anaheim off John Henry's dime.

by Rev Halofan on Nov 2, 2006 8:13 PM PST up reply actions

Bleh

By your own admission Colon coming back to form will be a miracle.

Aybar is still a prospect. And prospects are just that. The visible part of Aybar is that he is a slap singles hitter with fast feet and fast hands but a slow release on throws to first and is still error-prone in the infield. That is a huge step down at 3B in Boston from Lowell. And forecasting forward, with Aybar you gotta wonder. With as many different lineups and shuffling of players that Sosh pulled last season, there might be a reason that Aybar barely made it to the level of Utility.

As for Ramirez vs. Rivera, last year Manny was hurt. In a full season Rivera is only half the offense that Ramirez is. Yeah, he costs a lot more that Rivera next season. But you don't know what Rivera's cost is going to be in 2008. It will still be less, for sure, but it will be more than what it is now.

So for Boston, who have to compete with the Yankees and figure out how to make up 11 games, you are proposing to slice offensive production by 50% in LF and 85% at 3B, and take a pitcher who would need a miracle to return to form. You ditch Manny's 2007 $18 and Lowell's $9M, but you pick up Colon's $14m and Rivera's $2M and Aybar's pocket change. Net savings for 2007: app. $13M. Net loss in offense: 170 hits, 50 doubles, 40+ HR's, 170 RBI's, 370 total bases, 100 walks. On defense you gain a Vegas chance at a 20 game winner, and a good possibility your fielding will get even worse (Aybar's projected fielding deficit versus Lowell more than makes up for Rivera's fielding advantage over Ramirez).

Conversely I, as an Angels fan, would gladly pick up that $13M for all that offense and defense. I only needed 5 more wins to get into the post-season, and that lineup would easily get me a shot at the Cards this past year.

Check yer daily ' toons here!

by Stirrups on Nov 3, 2006 8:49 AM PST up reply actions

More on Manny

As for Ramirez vs. Rivera, last year Manny was hurt.

AND he was hurt playing Boston's tiny left field. Imagine what his DL time might be like if he had to patrol a real LF, like the one they have at Anaheim.

Fire Mickey Hatcher. An entire generation of Angels offense depends upon it.

by scareduck on Nov 3, 2006 9:01 AM PST up reply actions

Most of his career he HAS played

on larger fields. Even half the time as a Red Sox. Last year was the DL anomoly.

Look, I am not saying I want the guy. I am on record as saying NO to Ramirez. LF is an important defensive position and the guy is all 3 stooges rolled into one out there. Always fun for a non BoSox fan to watch, 'cuz you never know when he's gonna pull a bonehead.

What I AM saying is that this deal doesn't make sense to the Red Sox. Yeah, they move $13M off their books for 2007. Yeah, they move two guys with only a few years left in their tank. But they also lose a gargantuan percentage of their offense, trade problem fielding in left for problem fielding at 3B, and pick up an arm that will require comeback player of the decade to nab another 20-win season. Why would they want to do that?

Check yer daily ' toons here!

by Stirrups on Nov 3, 2006 9:30 AM PST up reply actions

What a terrible trade

You already have two aging corner outfielders with chronic problems with their legs and back, and so you ... acquire Manny Ramirez? And trade away the one healthy young guy who can play those positions well and hit? And who costs 5% Manny's salary?

And then you "solve" 3B with an expensive 33-year-old whose OPS+ the last two years has been 77 and 106?

I have a feeling this isn't getting through, so I'll say it again -- our problem is NOT a lack of bad-fielding corner outfielders on the wrong side of 30. Our problems are:

3B (especially certainty at 3B)
CF (must include very good defense)
back end of the bullpen
oversupply at a couple of positions (SS, DH, maybe C)

Solutions that don't solve those problems aren't much worth talking about. Solutions that don't solve those problems, WHILE MAKING SOME OF THOSE PROBLEMS WORSE AND ADDING MILLIONS IN PAYROLL ... well, not so good.

by mattwelch on Nov 2, 2006 9:42 PM PST reply actions

What I like about the trade

Is that we get Manny without touching our top prospects - we have better SS options than Aybar.

For Colon, with all the uncertainty and our depth he's the 5th or 6th best option at starter - him or Saunders. But for the Red Sox, Colon for 1 year is a worthwhile gamble, far better than giving 24-30 million to an average pitcher - and that's what guys like Weaver and Suppan will probably command this year.

Lowell is a great defender at third. If he hits .270 with 15 homers at the bottom of the lineup, he's useful, and he's only got 1 year left anyway.

Getting Manny would give us a chance to have a serious offense. The last few years, even while contending, our offense has ranked with the Royals, Devil Rays, Orioles, and A's.

This is our shot to score with the big boys - and actually improve the defense in the process. It hurts the D that we can't DH Anderson and play Rivera in left, but Scioscia DH's Rivera far too often anyway.

The net cost of this trade, 11 million, is less than signing ANY of the top free agents who've been talked about.

by RallyMonkey5 on Nov 3, 2006 7:33 AM PST reply actions

totally

overvaluing colon. . .too huge a risk, i don't think anyone would take him on right now. And Aybar is the third best SS prospect for the Angels right now. Rivera had a great year, but is it a career year or a breakout? I dont see the Sox wanting to get rid of Manny that bad, and if they would, Colon wouldn't be a piece of the puzzle, they'd probably rather have another prospect, or if it's someone injured, maybe McPherson.

A bad day at the ballpark is better than the best day at work

by SoCalSoxFan @ Halos Heaven on Nov 3, 2006 9:15 AM PST reply actions

Boston Media

would rip any Colon deal - and if he didn't start 30 games and win 20 would rip the team a new one...

by Rev Halofan on Nov 3, 2006 10:12 AM PST reply actions

Don't they rip on Manny?

I doubt the Wonder Kid takes that sort of stuff into consideration, very unSABER.

i have sloppy handwriting

by rjcicc on Nov 3, 2006 10:40 AM PST up reply actions

I like it,

The Sox should do it if not for any other reason than to unload ManRams awful contract. I personally think there are few teams-Angels, Dodgers, Yanks, Mets- who can even think about taking Manny. If we were to assume his whole contract than the talent listed should be sufficent. If im the Red Sox, I'm (talking funny, and dry humping Mark whalberg/Matt Damon) wondering who's going to replace his production and if there's enough Chorizo in Bean town to feed General Colon.

i have sloppy handwriting

by rjcicc on Nov 3, 2006 10:37 AM PST reply actions

Let me begin by

saying I'm pro-Stoneman. That is far too many players in one transaction for him to be able to complete. How many --years-- have gone by without that many players being traded, and you're asking for all of it in one fell swoop?

It's a well known fact that if you try to take apart a cat to see how it works one of the first things you have on your hands is a non-working cat

by ineptituderunsamok on Nov 3, 2006 6:32 PM PST reply actions