Is Santana Worth Trading?

by Obscurity on Nov 8, 2006 11:04 PM PST Comment 14 comments

I'm still confused about this, and the impending offseason still has yet to help me figure what the Angels intentions are with Ervin Santana. Someone just noted that Santana was moved to the 'untouchable' list, yet every media outlet I see says that he's going to be traded and its likely that the Angels will sign Barry Zito to be the other starter in the rotation. I've also seen a few idiots that think the Angels would trade McPherson/Aybar for Cabrera (Orioles), but that's a seperate side note.

My question is that, what is he really worth to the Angels? His talent sure has a high ceiling, but is it worth trading a possible future cy young winner to get someone like, ugh Tejada? And why would we really need to sign Zito, especially since Stoneman likes to go in route of FA signings for our impact bats?

The whole issue confuses me, does anyone have anything to enlighten me on the situation?

This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.

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Ervin Santana

The good: VERY High Ceiling.

The bad: Has already had one season-long injury in the minors.

He is not at all untouchable, but rest assured Stoneman will get value for him or he will be an Angel in 2007.

by Rev Halofan on Nov 8, 2006 11:11 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

impact bats?

I assume you mean this to not include last offseason right?

by Zookeeper on Nov 9, 2006 9:03 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

It was in reference

to Bill Stoneman's history with obtaining players.

by Obscurity on Nov 9, 2006 9:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I still don't see why Arte

hasn't been rumored in the Matsuzaka sweepstakes. Yes it will cost a lot, and there is no guarantees of getting him, but he changed the name so he could market the team on a higher level. Wouldn't a little "NOMO MANIA" in so cal take the marketing thing up a notch, and tap into a new market?

Matsuzaka pitched at the Big A during the WBC, and the Asian teams drew better than team USA. Everyone sees the Ichiro effect and Matsui effects for their teams, this seems like something Arter would be all over, and would free up a starter to trade.

If they commit to a Zito or Schmidt, you're lookin at about 15 Mil per, so pony up the cake and try to work it so DM gets about the same (with the posting fee added to his salary). Say 30 mill posting fee and 6 years at 10 mil.

A bad day at the ballpark is better than the best day at work

by SoCalSoxFan on Nov 9, 2006 11:53 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Not gonna happen

Matsuzaka is only 26 and Boras will use this to his advantage by seeking only a 3 year deal at $11-$12 million per year (or more). With the posting fee likely to be $25 million, that makes him cost roughly $20 million per year along with the risk of losing him after only 3 years OR having to pony up even more for 5-6 years, and that's IF he's the real deal.

In retrospect, I'd rather have Zito at $14 million and a good reliever like Speier for another $5 than Daisuke on his own. That is, IF we need to replace Santana after a trade.

DarkAngel hath spoken....

by darkangel01 on Nov 9, 2006 12:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Keep in mind

That the posting fee is not paid if we don't actually sign him to a contract. It also gives the bidders exclusive bargaining rights. So basically, either a deal is worked out or the player goes back to play in Japan and no money changes hands.

by akathelorax on Nov 9, 2006 1:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

True but...

...what's the point of winning the posting if you're not going to pony up?

There is merit to the argument that the Angels could bid something like $35 million and trade his rights to either of the NY teams. They might have to eat $5-$8 million of it, but if Bill could buy Milledge and/or Humber for that price, he'd be a fool not to.

You might get Sheffield straight up for his rights too, or possibly Texeira from Texas. If I was Bill, I'd do it in a NY minute.

DarkAngel hath spoken....

by darkangel01 on Nov 9, 2006 2:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The point is

that if you win the posting you can negotiate from a position of strength. Daisuke has to either accept the contract or go back to playing in Japan.

The last time we were in this situation, it worked out pretty well...and this time it would only be a 30 day negotiating window.

The only real question is this: Do you want to sign guy who has never played a day in the majors to a 5 year $75 million deal?

by akathelorax on Nov 9, 2006 3:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

No...

...but I'd want an option year or two. Boras won't go for it. If the rumors of the Angels winning the posting (which I doubt) are true, I'm sure they'll move him. If they don't Santana is as good as gone (and Vernon Wells will probably wear red in 07).

DarkAngel hath spoken....

by darkangel01 on Nov 9, 2006 8:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Boras

will negotiate with the winning team with only one card to play. 'If it's not what we want, he'll go back for another year'. Most 'experts' agree that this is a very hollow threat.

Boras will in my opinion only go for a 3 year deal. That puts him back out at 29, this time free to go wherever the Yen leads.

If Dice K is as good as his translated stats lead us to believe, the 12M a year over 3 plus 21M bid (my numbers) may still be on par with ace/2 contract numbers. This is a big if; IF his translated stats are correct, he is likely the best SP on the market (and he's only 26!)

Which is a better fit; Zito 5/85, or Dice K 3/57 (or maybe 4/69)? Only time will tell.

It's a well known fact that if you try to take apart a cat to see how it works one of the first things you have on your hands is a non-working cat

by ineptituderunsamok on Nov 9, 2006 10:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs