Wildcard chances?

by bc56274 on Sep 8, 2006 1:41 PM PDT

We are currently tied with Boston, 5.5 games behind Minnesota, and 5 games behind Chicago.

Granted, our most likely avenue to the playoffs is to win the division, but is this a possibility also?

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I wouldn't be surprised if we won the WC

Both the ChiSox and the Twins have seemed very human lately.

My second favorite team for today: Tampa Bay

by thrill000 on Sep 8, 2006 1:42 PM PDT reply actions

As long as we aren't officially eliminated

from the wild card, there is still a chance, but trying to jump over the White Sox and Twins seems quite a bit more difficult than passing Oakland, who will likely choke soon anyways.

by MistaRaggy @ Halos Heaven on Sep 8, 2006 1:43 PM PDT reply actions

Actually

If the Twins sweep the A's, I like our AL West chances, if we sweep the Chisox and Oaky no Choaky the Twinkies, I like our wildcard chances.

by Rev Halofan on Sep 8, 2006 2:24 PM PDT reply actions

We play the A's 7 more times, so I assumed...

other teams in their respective divisions did too.

At first I thought there was no way we could make the wild card because I figured the ChiSox and Twins played eached other a bunch of times to close the season and one of them would win ever night. But not so. They only play each other 3 times!

My second favorite team for today: Tampa Bay

by thrill000 on Sep 8, 2006 2:31 PM PDT reply actions

I like our WC chances better than the team

we're tied with in winning pct (Boston).

Rev's right, there are myriad ways this next week can greatly improve our postseason chances with either the WC or Division being closer to reality.

DarkAngel hath spoken....

by darkangel01 on Sep 8, 2006 2:47 PM PDT reply actions

Water Closet

Our wild card chances are currently anywhere from less than 1% down to 0.5% (not kidding)

Not too good, but once every 20 something years you will see a team do something like that.

by elricsi on Sep 8, 2006 4:41 PM PDT reply actions

oh ye of little faith...

we're talking about a team BUILT on faith -- after all, they are called the "angels".

and it was only 11 years ago (1995) since a feat of much larger proportions.

by yeswecan on Sep 8, 2006 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions

Odds and Ends

I have faith, I'm just stating the best estimations currently known.

We have a much better chance of winning the division than the WC tho, around 10%.

I used to do simulations with my own program back in the early and mid nineties, and I don't think the Angels ever got over 99% in '95, but they were well over 90%. It was crushing.

by elricsi on Sep 8, 2006 6:31 PM PDT up reply actions

WORD

by yeswecan on Sep 8, 2006 7:19 PM PDT up reply actions

No Wild Card for the Halos

In the Wild Card era 90% of the Wild Cards have been within 3.5 games of the Wild Card lead on September 1st. Being 6 games behind Wild Card leader Minnesota one week AFTER that makes it extremely doubtful that the Angels could be the Wild Card. One percent odds of the Angels being the Wild Card conjure "The One Percent Doctrine" book title by the author Ron Suskind. One in a hundred events can happen. When I lived in Nepal and the doctor said there was a one percent chance of dying if you got hepatitis B I decided to get the vaccine for it. Strat-O-Matic players throw three dice. The odds on one throw of getting triple snake eyes or triple box cars are 108:1. That is about the same odds of dying from hepatitis B or the Angels being the 2006 A.L. Wild Card.

The odds eight now (September 9th a.m.) are about 9:1 against the Angels winning the A.L. West. After the Angels narrowed the gap from 8.5 to 5.5 games I pegged the odds at 8:1. The Angels and A's have each tacked on two victories since then and the 5.5 game gap remains the same.

This could be the greatest Angel regular season homestand in history. To achieve that the Halos must go 9-0. I do not foresee that. I believe the Angels can stretch their 4-0 homestand up to 8-0 before losing the finale. The Wednesday afternoon pitching match-up is Freddy Garcia vs Joe Saunders. Garcia is 5-1 in games I have seen him pitch at the Big A for Seattle and the Chisox. I don't always pick the Angels to win in the Halo's Heaven pregame contest. I believe the Angels are 3-3 in the games I have picked them to lose. Hey, I reserve the right to be wrong. An 8-1 homestand should get the Angels one more game closer to Oakland.

The key to catching the A's is to be within 3 games when going into Oakland with 10 games left to play and to be within 2 games when Oakland arrives in Anaheim for the last 4 games of the season. For the seven head-to-head Angels-Athletics games the Angels will go 5-2 or 4-3. It is not realistic to expect the Angels to do better than 5-2. Don't look too far ahead. Concentrate on tonight's Gustavo Chacin vs Kelvim Escobar match-up. Scioscia knows these games are played one at a time.

by Yetijuice on Sep 9, 2006 12:55 AM PDT up reply actions