2007 AL Cy Young

by SocalAngelFaninOC on Nov 10, 2007 10:02 AM PST

Who will prevail? The below is the MLB Cy Young "predictor" calculation. I think they have got it right that CC is above Beckett. I am surprised that they have Lackey above Beckett though. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/features/cy?season=2007

2007 Cy Young Predictor - American League
RK PLAYER CYP G GS IP ER K SV SHO W-L ERA VB
1 C.C. Sabathia, Cle 178.3 34 34 241.0 86 209 0 1 19-7 3.21 12
2 John Lackey, LAA 174.4 33 33 224.0 75 179 0 2 19-9 3.01 12
3 Josh Beckett, Bos 172.3 30 30 200.2 73 194 0 0 20-7 3.27 12
4 J.J. Putz, Sea 169.3 68 0 71.2 11 82 40 0 6-1 1.38 0
5 Fausto Carmona, Cle 168.9 32 32 215.0 73 137 0 1 19-8 3.06 12
6 Francisco Rodriguez, LAA 161.7 64 0 67.1 21 90 40 0 5-2 2.81 12
7 Kelvim Escobar, LAA 154.7 30 30 195.2 74 160 0 1 18-7 3.40 12
8 Joe Nathan, Min 143.4 68 0 71.2 15 77 37 0 4-2 1.88 0
9 Joe Borowski, Cle 142.4 69 0 65.2 37 58 45 0 4-5 5.07 12
10 Justin Verlander, Det 141.9 32 32 201.2 82 183 0 1 18-6 3.66 0

Poll

Who will actually get the nod?

John Lackey

10 votes

Josh Beckett

34 votes

CC Sabathia

18 votes

62 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Yes, but

Lackey pitched fifteen less innings and has the roughly the same walks and k rates. Also, his era is less. Whether he's better, well I guess he's just as good as Beckett. (?)

what's better is that we have three guys in the top ten! The two front end guys and the "shut down" closer.

Awesome!

by halomatt on Nov 10, 2007 10:50 AM PST reply actions

oops

walks aren't represented here. sorry! (too lazy to look up stats! (tltlus)

by halomatt on Nov 10, 2007 10:52 AM PST up reply actions

Was the voting actually done

pre-postseason, or after? I know it's not supposed to include postseason stats, but when was the voting done?

You can't un-ring a bell.

http://kotchatthebat.livejournal.com/

by Caseys Kiss of Death on Nov 10, 2007 11:50 AM PST reply actions

Early October

Votes have to be in on a day a couple of days after the regular season is over. (Some voters even finish their ballot a couple of days before the season ends). So no way they were aware of Beckett's postseason heroics.

This year is the test to see if they pay attention to anything other than won-loss record. I would have given it to Beckett anyway, since he did his damage in the AL East.

by elricsi on Nov 10, 2007 12:35 PM PST up reply actions

They'll pick Beckett

What with their Yankee/Bosox love fest.

Angels fan since '67

by red floyd on Nov 10, 2007 12:20 PM PST reply actions

Lackey has the ERA title

That is the draw there, although I think CC will egt it based on teh voters' proclivities in the past...

by Rev Halofan on Nov 10, 2007 12:54 PM PST reply actions

Keep in mind how the votes are cast

2 sportswriters from each AL city vote, thus there are 28 votes. That should at least mitigate SOME of the East Coast bias / Lovefest.

CC should get it based on all around performance. He is only one win shy of Beckett, but pitched 40 more innings, has a slightly better ERA (over 40 more innings),has 15 more K's but 3 LESS BB's than Beckett, he has 4 CG's and 1 SO to Beckett's 1 and none, and their WHIP's are identical.

This is a no-brainer except for the bias.......

by SocalAngelFaninOC on Nov 10, 2007 1:18 PM PST reply actions

Exactly

But I doubt the voters actually break down the numbers like that. I predict that it will be a close vote but Beckett will win because he was the league's only 20-game winner and he pitches in Boston ... and just enough of the voters will have little clue as to how good CC was this year.

by DChalofan on Nov 11, 2007 8:39 AM PST up reply actions

Erik Bedard

In late August I thought Baltimore's Erik Bedard would win the A.L. Cy Young Award. Bedard's numbers are more impressive considering he pitches half his games at hitter friendly Camden Yards. Being on the disabled list the last month of the season knocked Bedard out of the running. I would still place Bedard in the top ten and kick out Cleveland's Joe Borowski. I would place Johann Santana above Borowski too. Not to bore you, but Joe Borowski should get Scott Boras as his agent. Perhaps it was Boras that lobbied to get Borowski placed # 9 in the list above?

I have no complaints with Josh Beckett winning the A.L. Cy Young Award. He was the only 20 game winner.

by Yetijuice on Nov 11, 2007 2:39 PM PST reply actions