ARod v. MCab

by halofan91 on Nov 23, 2007 12:29 PM PST Comment 32 comments

Here are two players, both at age 24:

AB Avg OBP HR SLG
Player A 2572 .308 .359 148 .551
Player B 2694 .313 .388 138 .542

One has been hailed as the greatest player in baseball. One is a player the Angels might trade for.

Would anyone consider this trade? Kendrick, Mathis, Santana/Saunders, Wood for a 24-yo ARod

Before eveyone jumps all over this comparison, I realize that ARod 1) was a GG-caliber SS, and 2) is still in better shape at age 32 than MCab is at 24.

However, we have a chance to get the offensive production of a 24-yo ARod-type hitter, who will only make $10-12M/year for the next two years, and who we can probably sign long-term. All we have to do is put in a few weight clauses, and we could have one of the best, or even the best hitter in MLB for the next 10 years!

Why are we debating this?

This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.

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TALENT YES

But we would be giving the farm away for Cecil Fielder(3).At 24 and that is alot of talent.
I guess it's good that Colon may be gone so we could get him into shape(NOT)

by MOJOJAZZ72 on Nov 23, 2007 12:18 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Cecil was good

Until he turned 33. If Miggy only lasts that long that's 8 years of great hitting before he eats his way out of the league. And Miggy is a better hitter than Fielder was.

Reagins on a return to Fenway: "Mr. Henry, tear down this wall!"

by RallyMonkey5 on Nov 23, 2007 8:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Fielder, at 24, had 31 HRs, not 138

And he was a .243 hitter, not .313. And he also wasn't much of a third baseman.

by mattwelch on Nov 23, 2007 9:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

Mcab is a great hitter, I think people here worry about long term success. I am one person that is hesitant to trade howie because im not sure a Vlad/Tejada/Hunter/Howie wouldnt be as productive as a Vlad/Cabrera/Hunter combo. One lets us likely retain our #1 pitching prospect, and a cheap star 2nd baseman which aids in financial flexibility AND offensive insurance for when tejada is likely not re-signed.

the other mortgages insurance for guarenteed 2 years of stellar production in the middle.

So, are we playing for long term serious contension or 2 years of being the hands down favorite?

by ihearhowie2.0 on Nov 23, 2007 12:27 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

HK47

KEEP HOWIE
And all the other guys also.
I want a championship just as much as the next person.But giving up that much for one guy a french fry away from a heart attack is to much.
They did OK this year and next year will be better.
The young guys are the future and couls start to show this year.

by MOJOJAZZ72 on Nov 23, 2007 12:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

What a ridiculous question

Why are we debating this?

Because, as Texas discovered, one player is not a winning team. Unloading a whole mess of A-tier prospects AND some guys who are in fact proven, CHEAP players for said prodigy is not a winning strategy. One player who can blast balls out of the yard does not guarantee winning seasons or winning postseasons, or has the post-Vlad Angels' failure to advance to the World Series escaped your notice?

Hoping Ervin Santana turns it around in Salt Lake. Go, Ervin!

by scareduck on Nov 23, 2007 6:15 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

but but but

the Vlad Angels HAVE BEEN winning seasons, and they won the ALDS in the 2005 postseason.

And comparing the 2008 Angels to the 2001 Rangers is quite a stretch.

If you are desperate to be a contrarian then PLEASE name our A-tier prospects so that when they come up mediocre you won't be accuse of being a fence-sitter, you will be accused of being WRONG.

by Rev Halofan on Nov 23, 2007 6:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

so is your suggestion

to stop signing free agents, to stop thinking about trading for impact players, or to lower payroll?

the "post-vlad Angels" have arguably been the best era of angels baseball ever in terms of winning, attendance, consistency etc.

What should we do? Not sign guys like troy glaus in favor of "A-tier" prospects like dallas mcpherson?

My point is that theres no gaurentee with prospects. Theyre there for depth, cheap replacements and trades. I dont like the idea of trading howie and some others either, but its not like weve seen adenhart or wood do anything in the bigs. If anything, I think Wood's pedestrian numbers in AAA and complete lack of anything but Ks in his limited at bats up here shows he serves more value to a team like us in netting a PROVEN commodity.

if we were the A's or the Royals, itd be a different story. Wed cling to him until he was up for a contract. But this team, as built, doesnt have time to wait on brandon wood and the other "potential" stars to become just that. We have too much money committed in other areas aimed at winning championships right now. Its that fact that makes me thing the Miguel Cabrera trade is probably for the best or else this hunter contract will look extremely stupid.

by ihearhowie2.0 on Nov 23, 2007 7:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The Duck read Moneyball

and I suppose he can't think outside the BeaneBox...

by Rev Halofan on Nov 23, 2007 8:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

more buts

ditto Rev. The Angel's front office has produced cosistent winning teams, which is unprecedented in team history. They have maintained the fine balance of youth and veterens, speed with hitting, starting rotation and bullpen. So, arguably what's lacking? We need protection for Vlad, some bullpen help (a lefty would be ideal), the other pieces are arguably in place.

We can beat the Yankees now, split with the Tribe, and we still need to DOMINATE the hated ones.

Go get at least one of the Miggies!

and Salmon goes upstream!

by LAcubedfan on Nov 23, 2007 6:44 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I would like for the Rev to ban the word

"redsox" from this site. that's how much i hate those guys.

If I hear the word "red sox"...POW!!! RIGHT IN THE KISSER!!!

by Halofanatic on Nov 23, 2007 8:25 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

With Hunter now on board.....

I would rather get Tejada and keep Howie, Wood and Adenhart than give them up and get Cabrera

Cabrera is one great player now.

Two years of Tejada....Wood should be ready to take over SS. Howie should be a superstar. Adenhart might be in the rotation.

Yeah...I think I'd rather hold on to the kids at this point and bring in Tejada.

by KPBruin on Nov 24, 2007 8:06 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

If we keep Howie, Wood, and Adenhart ...

how do you plan to get Tejada? I don't think Santana and Aybar will suffice any longer. Wood would likely be part of any trade for him.

I share the opinion of many others that we should trade for Cabrera without giving up Howie. I do not know what I would do if Florida refuses, but I seriously doubt that Florida could walk away from the following proposal:

Santana or Saunders plus any three of Mathis, Willits, Morales, Izturis, Aybar, Adenhart, and Wood.

I would be comfortable with this trade and, from Florida's perspective, I do not believe that any other team will offer anything better.

by DChalofan on Nov 24, 2007 10:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Arod put up his numbers in the ML.

Not in AAAA. He also never gained over 75 lbs. while partying his ass off. This guy has too many red flags to risk putting all our eggs in his considerably ample basket.

Behavior just doesn't change overnight and Cabrera has burn-out written all over him.

Another very likely scenario is whether we get some success out of him before he becomes useless (a la Bartolo) or will he just go straight to Mo Vaughn status.

I'm not saying 'absolutely not' but we can't give up the ENTIRE farm for a career DH with somewhat 'fluffed-up' statistics, who just also happens to be a known empenada addict.

by thehasegawaexpress on Nov 24, 2007 12:29 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

fluffed up

why are his numbers fluffed? because you think the NL is that much inferior?

how about the fact he plays in a pitcher's haven that is pretty tough to homer in(before this year)

unreal that you guys wont give up 3-4 prospects for one of the best players in baseball

by The Halowed One on Nov 24, 2007 12:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

To answer your questions...

Yep. Especially in that crappy division.

And I no longer consider Kendrick a prospect. That's the entire point.
When 'weighing' all the pros and cons, he's nearly as proven as 'Big Boy' at one 20th the cost over the next several years.
And this is the best part. We already have him.

by thehasegawaexpress on Nov 24, 2007 2:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

You are removing all validity

from your statements by saying crap like Howie is "nearly as proven" as Cabrera. That's just absurd. They aren't even in the same realm. Get off your Howie-horse.

Wherever Red Sox Nation is, I just wish Bush would invade it. President: Miggy C Man-Crush Club

by agermer on Nov 24, 2007 6:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Howie and Cabrera

I'm definitely of the camp that doesn't think Howie should be included in the deal for Cabrera.

Negatives for Cabrera..

He's already having weight issues.

His numbers are inflated from playing in the AAAA.

His numbers are inflated from an unbalanced shedule in the NL East (PHI, NY, PIT, and WAS all have horrible pitching)

He's not a good defender at all and will likely be moved to DH eventually. I don't want a 23 million dollar a year DH.

His teammates have called him out on his effort. I think Olson did it during a game in public. How sure do you think he has to be to call a player out like that, especially the best player on the team?

With all those negatives I still think he will put up BETTER numbers than HK for the forseeable fututure.

However there are many reasons I would not include Howie in the deal.

He unlike M-Cab plays a solid defense, and plays a position where it is MUCH harder to find offense.

He hit .322 in his first full year and he was definitely not healed when he came back from the wrist injury. If you take out his first 44 abs after coming back from his injury his line for the season would have been an outstanding .350/.375/.493. Which is in line with his Minor League performance.

He unlike Cabrera is loved by all his teammates and is not going to cause any problems in the clubhouse.

But the MAIN MAIN REASON.... Over the next 4 years, Cabrera is going to have to be paid somewhere around 70 million dollars while whatever team has Howie can pay him in peanuts while he builds up service time. Money does not grow on trees and especially with the Angels shelling out 28 million dollars a year to OF's on the Wrong side of 30 (that not even counting GA and Vlad) the Angels drastically need cheap contracts to supplement those contracts otherwise I really doubt they'll have the money to resign Lackey, Weaver, K-Rod which are the FOUNDATION for the Angels recent success.

I am not at all against the Angels acquiring Cabrera and I am certainly not an Angels homer for suggesting the Angels really think about trading HK. HK is a special player and I think he's the best pure hitter the Angels have EVER produced and for the next several years he is dirt cheap.

I'd give up any 4 of Adenhart, Mathis, Willits, Figgins, Izturis, Sullivan, and Wood. But keep HK out of it.

by MH25 on Nov 24, 2007 12:59 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Olson?

You are using Olson calling him out as a negative? Olson is freaking cancer. DUI and a fight with another starting in just the last year.

Um.........

by hauldog on Nov 24, 2007 1:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

sorry

fight with another staring pitcher. A fist fight

Um.........

by hauldog on Nov 24, 2007 1:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

the plays

Did you actually remember seeing the plays? I do, I could have sworn he was imitating Dornan from Major League.

by MH25 on Nov 24, 2007 1:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

haha

crazy.

the only player Cabrera has ever had issues with is Scott Olsen... and besides, who hasn't Olsen had issues with?

And agreed, if money is an issue, then by all means don't trade Kendrick if we can't sign Cabrera long term. No argument there.

Look, I love HK as much as the next, but this is Miguel Cabrera here. If we can sign him to a ltc, I'd trade anything for this guy. He's just 25 and is already so good, playing in a pitcher's park, mind you

by The Halowed One on Nov 24, 2007 2:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Olson

I know Olson is far from a model citizen but you think what he said had no merit?

Many many many people are convicted based on the word of criminals in court (far worse than Olson), so why don't you stop worrying about M-Cab/HK and go protest that somewhere.

by MH25 on Nov 24, 2007 1:07 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I come here to talk baseball

and not social issues.

Um.........

by hauldog on Nov 24, 2007 1:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

lol

And I noticed you totally ignored all of my other arguments for not wanting to include Howie in the deal.

Don't care to argue with his stat line if you take out his injury?

Don't care to debate that he'll be paid next to nothing compared to Cabrera the next four years?

Don't care to debate that HK plays a more important defensive position far better than M-Cab plays position where it is much easier to find offense?

Don't care to debate that HK has about 60 lbs less of fat on him than M-Cab?

Don't care to debate that Howie already fits in well with our team and Cabrera would be an complete unknown in that category.

What I find insane is just how arrogant the M-Cab camp is. Telling people they are homers or just need to look at the numbers to see that it'd be a great move.

If you come to talk baseball then why don't you pick apart each one of my arguments piece by piece. Until you do that, I'll think that you should just look at the numbers.

by MH25 on Nov 24, 2007 1:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Because I see the merit the arguments

I agree with them for the most part, but I think Miguel at 24 is better than Howie at his peak. I am hoping that there is a way to get Miguel and keep Howie.

Um.........

by hauldog on Nov 24, 2007 1:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Here is a stat for you

HK's K/BB ratio. Thoughts?

I find it insane how arrogant you are to totally dismiss M Cab's stats because he plays in "AAAA".

Um.........

by hauldog on Nov 24, 2007 1:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

K/BB ratio

Yes his K/BB ratio is not great but it should improve a bit, but even then he doesn't have to draw 75 walks to have a well above average OBP.

And I'm not dismissing his Cabrera's numbers. Like I said he will out hit Howie for the forseeable future. But pretty much everything else I favor Howie.

And I definitely agree with you that I hope they get Cabrera w/o giving up Howie. They still have a lot to offer in Adenhart, Wood, Sullivan, Mathis. And honestly I think the Angels should hold out Howie for awhile. Having just gotten Hunter the fish know our need isn't as great as it was. And who is going to offer more for Cabrera? Not the Yanks or Red Sox who have 3B.
And he means less to an NL team like the Dodgers who know in a few years he could very well be a complete liability on D. The Dodgers have already balked at what was asked, and I'm sure the fish would rather he goes out of their league.

by MH25 on Nov 24, 2007 2:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The "Reply to this"

button is pretty nifty. I suggest you try it out.

Um.........

by hauldog on Nov 24, 2007 1:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

For those who like to project statistics...

2003 Miguel Cabrera 185 lbs.
2007 Miguel Cabrera 260 lbs.

that's 15 lbs a year folks. Screw ARod, these are Ruthian numbers.

by thehasegawaexpress on Nov 24, 2007 1:52 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I know I already

posted this elsewhere, but I have to kill this "MCab is playing in AAAA so he isn't really that good" idea.

Here are Vlad's splits NL v AL:

AB AVG OBP HR AB/HR SLG
Vlad v. NL 3762 .323 .385 234 16.1 .588
Vlad v. AL 2313 .327 .389 131 17.7 .566

Clearly, Vlad made the transition fine. In fact, as I also pointed out, Vlad and MCab were also remarkably similar at age 24:

AB AVG OBP HR AB/HR SLG
Vlad 2156 .322 .373 136 15.9 .592
MCab 2313 .313 .388 138 19.5 .542

Please stop saying MCab is playing in AAAA and therefore can't cut it in the AL.

I also find it funny that someone would refer to MCab's weight issues as "Ruthian" as if that is a problem. If I remember, that Ruth guy did OK.

Vladdy + MCab > Manny + Big Papi

by halofan91 on Nov 24, 2007 10:57 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

You aren't killing anything....

In the other thread it showed (don't know if it was posted by you or not) but it showed Cabrera has had his OPS drop by 40 points in his career against the AL.

40 points is nothing to sneeze at.

I did a rough calculation of the AL vs NL the last 2 years and I calculated that the AL had a winning percentage of .572 which is an obsolute huge advantage when you consider that is the entire 2 leagues.

Look at some players that have had huge dropoffs when coming to the AL.

JD Drew last year lost 100 points in OPS.

Barfield went from .741 in SD which is a huge pitchers park to .594 in Cleveland.

Finley posted an 823 OPS in the NL before posting his awe inspiring 645 in the AL.

I'm not saying MCab's numbers would be anywhere as dramatic as that. But even if you use the 40 points which he has had in his career in the AL then you are talking about a .925 OPS. And when you consider that Howie will likely put up an OPS of .850+ then I don't think that the difference offensively makes up for EVERYTHING else being in Howie's favor. And by everything I mean conditioning, service time and therefore how much he needs to be paid, team chemistry, and defense.

by MH25 on Nov 25, 2007 12:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs