ARod v. MCab
by halofan91 on Nov 23, 2007 12:29 PM PST
32 comments
Here are two players, both at age 24:
AB Avg OBP HR SLG
Player A 2572 .308 .359 148 .551
Player B 2694 .313 .388 138 .542
One has been hailed as the greatest player in baseball. One is a player the Angels might trade for.
Would anyone consider this trade? Kendrick, Mathis, Santana/Saunders, Wood for a 24-yo ARod
Before eveyone jumps all over this comparison, I realize that ARod 1) was a GG-caliber SS, and 2) is still in better shape at age 32 than MCab is at 24.
However, we have a chance to get the offensive production of a 24-yo ARod-type hitter, who will only make $10-12M/year for the next two years, and who we can probably sign long-term. All we have to do is put in a few weight clauses, and we could have one of the best, or even the best hitter in MLB for the next 10 years!
Why are we debating this?
This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.
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TALENT YES
I guess it's good that Colon may be gone so we could get him into shape(NOT)
by MOJOJAZZ72 on Nov 23, 2007 12:18 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Cecil was good
by RallyMonkey5 on Nov 23, 2007 8:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Fielder, at 24, had 31 HRs, not 138
by mattwelch on Nov 23, 2007 9:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
the other mortgages insurance for guarenteed 2 years of stellar production in the middle.
So, are we playing for long term serious contension or 2 years of being the hands down favorite?
by ihearhowie2.0 on Nov 23, 2007 12:27 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
HK47
And all the other guys also.
I want a championship just as much as the next person.But giving up that much for one guy a french fry away from a heart attack is to much.
They did OK this year and next year will be better.
The young guys are the future and couls start to show this year.
by MOJOJAZZ72 on Nov 23, 2007 12:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What a ridiculous question
Because, as Texas discovered, one player is not a winning team. Unloading a whole mess of A-tier prospects AND some guys who are in fact proven, CHEAP players for said prodigy is not a winning strategy. One player who can blast balls out of the yard does not guarantee winning seasons or winning postseasons, or has the post-Vlad Angels' failure to advance to the World Series escaped your notice?
by scareduck on Nov 23, 2007 6:15 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
but but but
And comparing the 2008 Angels to the 2001 Rangers is quite a stretch.
If you are desperate to be a contrarian then PLEASE name our A-tier prospects so that when they come up mediocre you won't be accuse of being a fence-sitter, you will be accused of being WRONG.
by Rev Halofan on Nov 23, 2007 6:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
so is your suggestion
the "post-vlad Angels" have arguably been the best era of angels baseball ever in terms of winning, attendance, consistency etc.
What should we do? Not sign guys like troy glaus in favor of "A-tier" prospects like dallas mcpherson?
My point is that theres no gaurentee with prospects. Theyre there for depth, cheap replacements and trades. I dont like the idea of trading howie and some others either, but its not like weve seen adenhart or wood do anything in the bigs. If anything, I think Wood's pedestrian numbers in AAA and complete lack of anything but Ks in his limited at bats up here shows he serves more value to a team like us in netting a PROVEN commodity.
if we were the A's or the Royals, itd be a different story. Wed cling to him until he was up for a contract. But this team, as built, doesnt have time to wait on brandon wood and the other "potential" stars to become just that. We have too much money committed in other areas aimed at winning championships right now. Its that fact that makes me thing the Miguel Cabrera trade is probably for the best or else this hunter contract will look extremely stupid.
by ihearhowie2.0 on Nov 23, 2007 7:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The Duck read Moneyball
by Rev Halofan on Nov 23, 2007 8:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
more buts
We can beat the Yankees now, split with the Tribe, and we still need to DOMINATE the hated ones.
Go get at least one of the Miggies!
by LAcubedfan on Nov 23, 2007 6:44 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I would like for the Rev to ban the word
by Halofanatic on Nov 23, 2007 8:25 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
With Hunter now on board.....
Cabrera is one great player now.
Two years of Tejada....Wood should be ready to take over SS. Howie should be a superstar. Adenhart might be in the rotation.
Yeah...I think I'd rather hold on to the kids at this point and bring in Tejada.
by KPBruin on Nov 24, 2007 8:06 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
If we keep Howie, Wood, and Adenhart ...
I share the opinion of many others that we should trade for Cabrera without giving up Howie. I do not know what I would do if Florida refuses, but I seriously doubt that Florida could walk away from the following proposal:
Santana or Saunders plus any three of Mathis, Willits, Morales, Izturis, Aybar, Adenhart, and Wood.
I would be comfortable with this trade and, from Florida's perspective, I do not believe that any other team will offer anything better.
by DChalofan on Nov 24, 2007 10:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Arod put up his numbers in the ML.
Behavior just doesn't change overnight and Cabrera has burn-out written all over him.
Another very likely scenario is whether we get some success out of him before he becomes useless (a la Bartolo) or will he just go straight to Mo Vaughn status.
I'm not saying 'absolutely not' but we can't give up the ENTIRE farm for a career DH with somewhat 'fluffed-up' statistics, who just also happens to be a known empenada addict.
by thehasegawaexpress on Nov 24, 2007 12:29 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
fluffed up
how about the fact he plays in a pitcher's haven that is pretty tough to homer in(before this year)
unreal that you guys wont give up 3-4 prospects for one of the best players in baseball
by The Halowed One on Nov 24, 2007 12:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
To answer your questions...
And I no longer consider Kendrick a prospect. That's the entire point.
When 'weighing' all the pros and cons, he's nearly as proven as 'Big Boy' at one 20th the cost over the next several years.
And this is the best part. We already have him.
by thehasegawaexpress on Nov 24, 2007 2:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You are removing all validity
by agermer on Nov 24, 2007 6:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Howie and Cabrera
Negatives for Cabrera..
He's already having weight issues.
His numbers are inflated from playing in the AAAA.
His numbers are inflated from an unbalanced shedule in the NL East (PHI, NY, PIT, and WAS all have horrible pitching)
He's not a good defender at all and will likely be moved to DH eventually. I don't want a 23 million dollar a year DH.
His teammates have called him out on his effort. I think Olson did it during a game in public. How sure do you think he has to be to call a player out like that, especially the best player on the team?
With all those negatives I still think he will put up BETTER numbers than HK for the forseeable fututure.
However there are many reasons I would not include Howie in the deal.
He unlike M-Cab plays a solid defense, and plays a position where it is MUCH harder to find offense.
He hit .322 in his first full year and he was definitely not healed when he came back from the wrist injury. If you take out his first 44 abs after coming back from his injury his line for the season would have been an outstanding .350/.375/.493. Which is in line with his Minor League performance.
He unlike Cabrera is loved by all his teammates and is not going to cause any problems in the clubhouse.
But the MAIN MAIN REASON.... Over the next 4 years, Cabrera is going to have to be paid somewhere around 70 million dollars while whatever team has Howie can pay him in peanuts while he builds up service time. Money does not grow on trees and especially with the Angels shelling out 28 million dollars a year to OF's on the Wrong side of 30 (that not even counting GA and Vlad) the Angels drastically need cheap contracts to supplement those contracts otherwise I really doubt they'll have the money to resign Lackey, Weaver, K-Rod which are the FOUNDATION for the Angels recent success.
I am not at all against the Angels acquiring Cabrera and I am certainly not an Angels homer for suggesting the Angels really think about trading HK. HK is a special player and I think he's the best pure hitter the Angels have EVER produced and for the next several years he is dirt cheap.
I'd give up any 4 of Adenhart, Mathis, Willits, Figgins, Izturis, Sullivan, and Wood. But keep HK out of it.
by MH25 on Nov 24, 2007 12:59 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Olson?
by hauldog on Nov 24, 2007 1:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
the plays
by MH25 on Nov 24, 2007 1:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
haha
the only player Cabrera has ever had issues with is Scott Olsen... and besides, who hasn't Olsen had issues with?
And agreed, if money is an issue, then by all means don't trade Kendrick if we can't sign Cabrera long term. No argument there.
Look, I love HK as much as the next, but this is Miguel Cabrera here. If we can sign him to a ltc, I'd trade anything for this guy. He's just 25 and is already so good, playing in a pitcher's park, mind you
by The Halowed One on Nov 24, 2007 2:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Olson
Many many many people are convicted based on the word of criminals in court (far worse than Olson), so why don't you stop worrying about M-Cab/HK and go protest that somewhere.
by MH25 on Nov 24, 2007 1:07 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I come here to talk baseball
by hauldog on Nov 24, 2007 1:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
lol
Don't care to argue with his stat line if you take out his injury?
Don't care to debate that he'll be paid next to nothing compared to Cabrera the next four years?
Don't care to debate that HK plays a more important defensive position far better than M-Cab plays position where it is much easier to find offense?
Don't care to debate that HK has about 60 lbs less of fat on him than M-Cab?
Don't care to debate that Howie already fits in well with our team and Cabrera would be an complete unknown in that category.
What I find insane is just how arrogant the M-Cab camp is. Telling people they are homers or just need to look at the numbers to see that it'd be a great move.
If you come to talk baseball then why don't you pick apart each one of my arguments piece by piece. Until you do that, I'll think that you should just look at the numbers.
by MH25 on Nov 24, 2007 1:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Because I see the merit the arguments
by hauldog on Nov 24, 2007 1:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Here is a stat for you
I find it insane how arrogant you are to totally dismiss M Cab's stats because he plays in "AAAA".
by hauldog on Nov 24, 2007 1:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
K/BB ratio
And I'm not dismissing his Cabrera's numbers. Like I said he will out hit Howie for the forseeable future. But pretty much everything else I favor Howie.
And I definitely agree with you that I hope they get Cabrera w/o giving up Howie. They still have a lot to offer in Adenhart, Wood, Sullivan, Mathis. And honestly I think the Angels should hold out Howie for awhile. Having just gotten Hunter the fish know our need isn't as great as it was. And who is going to offer more for Cabrera? Not the Yanks or Red Sox who have 3B.
And he means less to an NL team like the Dodgers who know in a few years he could very well be a complete liability on D. The Dodgers have already balked at what was asked, and I'm sure the fish would rather he goes out of their league.
by MH25 on Nov 24, 2007 2:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The "Reply to this"
by hauldog on Nov 24, 2007 1:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
For those who like to project statistics...
2007 Miguel Cabrera 260 lbs.
that's 15 lbs a year folks. Screw ARod, these are Ruthian numbers.
by thehasegawaexpress on Nov 24, 2007 1:52 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I know I already
Here are Vlad's splits NL v AL:
AB AVG OBP HR AB/HR SLG
Vlad v. NL 3762 .323 .385 234 16.1 .588
Vlad v. AL 2313 .327 .389 131 17.7 .566
Clearly, Vlad made the transition fine. In fact, as I also pointed out, Vlad and MCab were also remarkably similar at age 24:
AB AVG OBP HR AB/HR SLG
Vlad 2156 .322 .373 136 15.9 .592
MCab 2313 .313 .388 138 19.5 .542
Please stop saying MCab is playing in AAAA and therefore can't cut it in the AL.
I also find it funny that someone would refer to MCab's weight issues as "Ruthian" as if that is a problem. If I remember, that Ruth guy did OK.
by halofan91 on Nov 24, 2007 10:57 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
You aren't killing anything....
40 points is nothing to sneeze at.
I did a rough calculation of the AL vs NL the last 2 years and I calculated that the AL had a winning percentage of .572 which is an obsolute huge advantage when you consider that is the entire 2 leagues.
Look at some players that have had huge dropoffs when coming to the AL.
JD Drew last year lost 100 points in OPS.
Barfield went from .741 in SD which is a huge pitchers park to .594 in Cleveland.
Finley posted an 823 OPS in the NL before posting his awe inspiring 645 in the AL.
I'm not saying MCab's numbers would be anywhere as dramatic as that. But even if you use the 40 points which he has had in his career in the AL then you are talking about a .925 OPS. And when you consider that Howie will likely put up an OPS of .850+ then I don't think that the difference offensively makes up for EVERYTHING else being in Howie's favor. And by everything I mean conditioning, service time and therefore how much he needs to be paid, team chemistry, and defense.
by MH25 on Nov 25, 2007 12:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
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