The Dan Haren Trade: Glass Half Empty for the Angels

by Rev Halofan on Dec 16, 2007 1:12 PM PST in News

There is a detailed analysis of the Dan Haren trade over at the subscriber-driven Baseball Prospectus, and for Angel fans, it is not a pretty picture.

In short, don't pop the division crown corks any time too soon, especially you pre-2009-11 AL West crown revelers.

The gist of the article is that the 6 prospects that the A's received from Arizona are SO good, that Fremont's pre-trade #11 prospect is now it's #16 prospect - and BP doesn't rate players over 25 as prospects, thus eliminating former-D-Back minor league pitcher Dana Eveland from it's consideration.

The analysis adds four of the players acquired in the Haren trade as firmly entrenched in the Joakland Top Ten prospects. Many pundits have given Outfielder Carlos Gonzalez a Carlos Beltran ceiling, and author Kevin Goldstein (the John Sickels of subscriber shakedown baseball websites) slots him as the #2 prospect for the She-Wolffs, implying that there is more than just an outside chance that Gonzalez will be the opening day centerfielder under Mount Davis. He calls lefty Brett Anderson the best teenage pitching prospect in baseball. Position players Chris Carter and Aaron Cunningham are #5 and #7 prospects respectively in Goldstein's very educated guesstimation.

This is NOT rebuilding. Billy Beane reloaded.

Before you point out all of the trouble facing Tarp Town, what with its proclivity for injuries and/or Kotsay/Krosby deadweight, consider that if Billy Beane is within 5 games of first place in July, he can take on two months of payroll for just about any star rental, and could trade a host of these glamorous prospects for serious pennant race mojo.

The Dan Haren trade should give Angel fans the queasy tension that early season games against the Athletics are of double import - Billy Beane's team cannot be allowed to sniff first place in midsummer. Complicating matters even more is the pathetic state of the Mariners and Rangers. Talk about the Green and Gold cakewalk - we all know that had the Mariners simply played .500 ball against Choakland in 2006 that the division crown would have comfortably rested in L.A. of Anaheim. With these two gelded inbred franchises being allowed on the field, there is no end to what the Connie Mack Attack can achieve in the A.L. West standings in 2008.

In other words, pop that bottle on New Year's Eve for the new year, not October.

0 recs | Comment 30 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Yeah, without looking at the prospects too closely

I was at a loss to comment on the trade. But Carlos Gonzalez could be worth the whole deal by himself. Like I said in the other thread, to be playing well in AA at the tender age of 21 is an impressive accomplishment.

Hoping Ervin Santana turns it around in Salt Lake. Go, Ervin!

by scareduck on Dec 16, 2007 1:37 PM PST 0 recs

Brandon Wood

Was better at age 21 in AA than Gonzalez was. And he's no sure thing. I'm not worried about the A's.

Reagins on a return to Fenway: "Mr. Henry, tear down this wall!"

by RallyMonkey5 on Dec 16, 2007 5:53 PM PST up 0 recs

How many division titles does the A's organization

have post-philladalphia A's era????? Does anyone know??? We've been racking up some division titles these last years and obviously are due for some more in these years to come.

If I hear the word "red sox"...POW!!! RIGHT IN THE KISSER!!!

by Halofanatic on Dec 16, 2007 2:12 PM PST 0 recs

I know this

they have exactly the same amount of Division Titles as the Angels do since 2002.

by Angel Aviator on Dec 16, 2007 7:15 PM PST up 0 recs

And I know that...

it's not even close. Halos-6 A's-14

by sbalzac on Dec 16, 2007 7:36 PM PST up 0 recs

The Oakland A's were World Champions

in '72, '73, '74, &'89. World Series losers in '88, & '90.

They seem to do things in 3's.

The Philadelphia A's were World Series winners in '10, '11, '13, '29, & '30, and losers in '05, '14, & '31.

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/ws/wsmenu.shtml

The Oakland A's have won 14 AL West division championships: '71, '72, '73, '74, '75, '81, '88, '89, '90, '92, 2000, '02, '03, & '06.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_League_West

(If I were an Oakland A's fan, I'd be very proud of that record!)

by wumbug on Dec 16, 2007 7:51 PM PST up 0 recs

Good Ole Charlie Finley!

by wumbug on Dec 16, 2007 7:55 PM PST up 0 recs

always potential...

with prospects, but they are just that, prospects. I don't disagree that this was a great trade for oakland on paper, but it will be a definite wait and see approach before i panic.

by azangel on Dec 16, 2007 2:16 PM PST 0 recs

They all make the top 11

because outside of Barton, the A's system was chock full of jack-crap. They had nobody left.

Gonzalez- if they do put him in, he'll likely be worse than Alex Gordon was last year, so I'm not worried there. I also still don't really buy that he's all that anyway.

Looking at their rotation, they have Blanton, Gaudin (just had hip surgery), Lenny DiNardo, Dallas Braden, and the undead corpse of Rich Harden. Not really that impressive.

Anything could still happen, but we are legitimate division favorites by a pretty good margin.

Frankly, the Mariners worry me more than the A's where the division is concerned. Adam Jones is a better prospect than Gonzalez, and they'll have a full year of him. Jose Lopez will very likely be better than last year. Richie Sexson is unlikely to be horrendous again. They still have Felix Hernandez and his ridiculous stuff, and they might give Morrow a shot at their rotation. Jeff Clement could come up and make difference at DH if they find a way to move Vidro. And the back of their bullpen is really, really good.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Dec 16, 2007 2:34 PM PST 0 recs

Hmm

I only counted one 5 star prospect and one 4 star prospect that they received (according the BP, opinions may vary on other sites, such as Baseball America) and the rest are 3 or below. There's also no guarantee that either of those guys pan out.

Keep in mind that the Diamondbacks system is no longer what it used to be, since many of their previous prospects are on the team. Also, the A's system was very weak, so the players they received replenishes them.

Besides that, Haren is affordable for the next 3 years, and is one of the best starters in the AL, so you figure they could've gotten a lot more quality in return. Gonzalez might have potential, but that's all it is at this point. He has an OPS in the 700's in 138 games at AA and is batting .277/.324/.464. The pitcher they received is also 19, so he's probably 4-5 years away.

The A's are decimating their pitching, and without it, or anything good to replace it, they're not going to win.

by Angels on Dec 16, 2007 3:40 PM PST 0 recs

By the way Rev

He didn't call Anderson the best teenage pitching prospect, and he's not even close to being that. He called him the most polished. Clayton Kershaw is the best teenage pitching prospect. Anderson doesn't have nearly that kind of potential. Anderson is seen as a future #3 starter, which is good, but not star quality.

by Angels on Dec 16, 2007 3:48 PM PST 0 recs

Yeah

I think he also said he's the most likely to have a productive major league career...

Low ceiling, but high chance of reaching it, versus someone like Porcello...

by lonestarball on Dec 16, 2007 6:26 PM PST up 0 recs

Yep

That's why he was labeled as a 4-star prospect, instead of a 3-star prospect. He's nothing special, but he's likely to reach his ceiling, compared to other high potential players who may or may not reach their ceiling. I'm loving how Beane is getting rid of his pitching without having anything good to replace it and his best pitching prospect, who is nothing special, is 4-5 years away from being ready. What a disaster the A's are going to be when/if they trade Blanton and Harden (although he can't stay healthy.) Their pitching will be awful.

by Angels on Dec 16, 2007 7:11 PM PST up 0 recs

Just relax...

There's nothing to worry about. They're talented prospects that haven't proven anything at the majot league level.

In one hand, people say, they're young, good, and cheap. Okay folks, what the hell do you think Wood and Adenhart is? They're young, good, and cheap.

That's still a big if... not even our beloved Brandon Wood or Nick Adenhart has shown shit at the major league level so le's not overreact to a move Oakland makes to help themselves in the year 2010.

by matt92130 on Dec 16, 2007 3:54 PM PST 0 recs

Nice try, Rev...

It's more fun to root for an underdog, and you're trying to turn the Angels into exactly that. But...

Well...

We're not. We will be in October, but not until then.

Get M-Cab, try to save the Howie.

by 101halo on Dec 16, 2007 4:05 PM PST 0 recs

no way a's compete in 2008

Sorry Rev.... you won't find a bigger A's fan than me but there's no way we compete next year.

At best our line up looks like this-

buck
ellis
barton
chavez
cust
swisher
gonzalez
crosbu
suzuki

IF everything goes right we're slightly above avg.

Some combo of Blanton/Gaudin/DiTardo/Duke/Myer/Braden starting makes us well below avg.

I see a fire sale /w Beane dealing Blanton and Street and playing for 2010.

by sbalzac on Dec 16, 2007 8:07 PM PST 0 recs

Imagine if we had Billy Beane.

We would be unstoppable, and we would get there at two-thirds the cost!

by bc56274 on Dec 16, 2007 8:59 PM PST 0 recs

Rev

I love 99% of what you write, and even enjoy like crazy the hyperbolic expressions you often use...

But this entry just reads as unwarranted alarmist claims. As sbalzac said above, their lineup is really just average at best. Assuming everyone in their lineup performs to their ceiling and doesn't get injured, they're marginally above average. Knowing that won't be the case, I can't see them as being anything more than average. Crosby and Chavez are virtual locks for missed playing time, Cust is due for a regression, Barton is sky-high ceiling, but totally unproven...it's sort of just a massive collection of 'what ifs?'...moreso than even the Angels.

The ACE of their rotation is our #3, maybe #4 starter. Second half Gaudin is far more on par with what we should expect from him that first half Gaudin, and the rest is interchangeable garbage or unprovens. Street may or may not stay healthy, and even if he does, he and Blanton could be shipped off if they show any sign of slipping.

I agree that they could very well stay competitive, relative to their payroll, but in the broad scheme of things, this is a marginally-over-.500 team next year. If they play to their ceiling, I'd suggest 88-90 games for them, AT MOST. From what I'd guess of the current Angels, 97-98 wins ain't out of reason. I feel fine about it. One less ace to have to face regularly.

by Caseys Kiss of Death on Dec 16, 2007 9:09 PM PST 0 recs

What Am I S'post ta do...

...wait for a trade to write something / anything about the team?

by Rev Halofan on Dec 16, 2007 10:13 PM PST up 0 recs

Ouch

Even if not attended, I'm gonna take that as a dig at my blog and slump into a corner.

No, but seriously. It's still a good analysis, but I just disagree with the jist of it. In regards to the Angels' division title in 2008, let me quote the 2000 SNL version of Al Gore:

"Lockbox."

by Caseys Kiss of Death on Dec 16, 2007 10:41 PM PST up 0 recs

attended? i'm retarded

*intended

by Caseys Kiss of Death on Dec 16, 2007 10:41 PM PST up 0 recs

on the other hand....

they gave up the one guy that struck fear in my heart to an already solid D'Back team. If we're talking '08/'09, this trade is fantastic for the D'Backs.

by thewebb on Dec 16, 2007 9:14 PM PST 0 recs

Is your username

a reference to Brandon?

by Caseys Kiss of Death on Dec 16, 2007 9:25 PM PST up 0 recs

nope

but if he ever ends up on the Angels, yes!

by thewebb on Dec 18, 2007 5:50 PM PST up 0 recs

Cust

Cust strikes out more than any player I have ever seen. He struck out 10% more than Adam Dunn this year. Cust averages 250 K's every 600 ABs, which is mind-boggling. Gaudin also allowed 100 walks in less than 200 innings, which is terrible. He'll get crushed allowing that many walks, as he did in the second half (6.30 ERA) He might be their #1 starter if Blanton goes, which goes to show how awful their pitching is now that it is getting decimated.

I really don't even see how the A's are going to compete in 2010 without pitching. If they had promising pitching prospects, such as a Walden (possible ace, although it's early) or Adenhart (possible #2 starter) as the Angels do, then that'd be different, but their best pitching prospect is 19, is probably 4-5 years away, and is considered nothing more than a possible #3 starter. The A's are in shambles.

by Angels on Dec 16, 2007 9:28 PM PST 0 recs

A little early on Walden there

but I like the optimism.

by Caseys Kiss of Death on Dec 16, 2007 10:12 PM PST up 0 recs

True

It's still early, and he turned 20 just a month ago, but I've heard great things about him. He even has a classic pitcher's build (6'5", 230 lbs), which should allow him to throw 96-98 mph on a regular basis and even hit 100 on occasion from what I've heard. His slider has potential to be an out pitch (he has already shown flashes of it), and his changeup could also be a plus pitch, which he is currently developing and is improving.

Here is what he did in his final 33 innings this year: 33 innings, 26 hits, 2 walks, 35 K's. Pitcher's who throw as hard as he does don't usually exhibit that kind of great command, and that's ridiculous command for any kind of pitcher, yet alone a fireballer.

He was also rated as the #1 high school prospect by Baseball America in 2006, ahead of players like Kershaw, Drabek, etc. until his velocity dropped in his senior year because of a groin injury.

by Angels on Dec 16, 2007 10:50 PM PST up 0 recs

I hadn't looked at his stats yet.

They're impressive to say the least. He's definitely going on my keep an eye on his MILB stats in 2008 list. Think he'll open the year in Cedar Rapids and finish the year in Rancho?

Get M-Cab, try to save the Howie.

by 101halo on Dec 16, 2007 11:08 PM PST up 0 recs

Yea

He'll definitely open the year in Cedar Rapids, and I can see him moving up quickly, although given his age, I'm not sure the Angels are going to rush him. There's simply no need to rush him.

by Angels on Dec 16, 2007 11:15 PM PST up 0 recs