Interesting Stat about Steals
Leave it up to the genius Greg Maddux to throw this one out there and leave it up to Bud Black to not believe it. Too fresh off the So-sha (much easier to spell it this way) ball perspective, in my eyes, Figgins just got even less valuable. I didn't think it was possible, but it is.
When Padres manager Bud Black first heard Maddux
say that only 17 percent of runners who steal
bases eventually score, he was skeptical. But
after digging deeper, it all made sense to him.
It might take sometime to unprogram Buddy, but it's clear he's learning from the professor.
This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.
6 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Yeah
by Caseys Kiss of Death on May 22, 2007 3:05 PM PDT reply actions
exactly... but the more prevalent question
That would be a far more relevent analysis.
well
you first look at how likely it is for any baserunner to score without stealing bases. you then look at how much (if any) their chances increase if they steal a base successfully.
i agree with you, though, that the 17% is a useless stat unless its placed in the context of something
You also have to factor in
Stealing doubles your chances.
Also I don't think the 17% number is correct. That appear to be the same as the number of RBIs divided by the number of PAs with a man on second. However, the batter often gets walked in that situation resulting in a 20% chance of runs scoring.
At any rate, the chance of a run scoring in that exact at-bat with a man on first is 8 percent so stealing second essentially doubles the likelihood of a score.

by 


























