Interesting Stat about Steals

by LosAngel on May 22, 2007 10:26 AM PDT

Leave it up to the genius Greg Maddux to throw this one out there and leave it up to Bud Black to not believe it. Too fresh off the So-sha (much easier to spell it this way) ball perspective, in my eyes, Figgins just got even less valuable. I didn't think it was possible, but it is.

When Padres manager Bud Black first heard Maddux
say that only 17 percent of runners who steal
bases eventually score, he was skeptical. But
after digging deeper, it all made sense to him.

http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070519&content_id=1975007&vkey=news_sd &fext=.jsp&c_id=sd

It might take sometime to unprogram Buddy, but it's clear he's learning from the professor.

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Comments

Yeah

but what percentage of guys who did score, wouldn't have if they didn't steal a base?

by Caseys Kiss of Death on May 22, 2007 3:05 PM PDT reply actions

exactly... but the more prevalent question

is how many baserunners who get to 2b score in general compared to a basestealer.

That would be a far more relevent analysis.

by shiftyeyedgoat on May 22, 2007 3:17 PM PDT reply actions

well

not even baserunners who get to 2b, but just baserunners in general.

you first look at how likely it is for any baserunner to score without stealing bases. you then look at how much (if any) their chances increase if they steal a base successfully.

i agree with you, though, that the 17% is a useless stat unless its placed in the context of something

by ZiK on May 23, 2007 5:27 PM PDT up reply actions

You also have to factor in

that a batter's gonna get different pitches with a guy on second. In some cases you walk the next guy cause he's either dangerous (Bonds) or to set up a force out situation at 3 bases.

Captain, there are doubt's...

by Match Day 5 on May 23, 2007 6:59 AM PDT reply actions

Stealing doubles your chances.

Chances are you're stealing with two outs more often than with no outs. So with two outs a man in scoring position is less likely to score.

Also I don't think the 17% number is correct. That appear to be the same as the number of RBIs divided by the number of PAs with a man on second. However, the batter often gets walked in that situation resulting in a 20% chance of runs scoring.

At any rate, the chance of a run scoring in that exact at-bat with a man on first is 8 percent so stealing second essentially doubles the likelihood of a score.

by melvintoast on May 24, 2007 10:31 PM PDT reply actions