Mighty Casey

by darkangel01 on Jun 13, 2007 8:25 PM PDT

Moved Here From the Diaries, a Must-Read...

While there has been much love for young Casey these past few weeks and justifiably so, in analyzing Kotch's numbers in becomes apparent just how valuable he has made himself.

AL Batting

As you can see from the link above, Kotch currently trails only 4 perennial All-Stars (2 of which are likely 1st ballot HOFers) in .OPS.

When including the NL, Bonds, Fielder, and Miggy C knock Casey to 8th overall.

On offensive stats alone, Kotch has proven to be one of the most productive players in all of MLB. However, if you add in his truly stellar defensive play (1 error for his career and #1 AL Zone Rating), his overall value increases immensely especially given the fact that 2 of the 4 players ahead of him are either last in fielding pct. for their position (Vlad) or don't play defense at all (Ortiz).

Casey's saved untold runs with his soft hands at first and diving stops to take away extra base hits. He truly is coming into his own and making the lost 2006 season worth the wait.

To think if it weren't for Atlanta holding out for Shields too, he'd be doing this in a Braves uni.

All he needs to do now is hit lefties with a modicum of authority.

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Comments

What he said

Kotchman is tits.

by cupie on Jun 13, 2007 10:26 AM PDT reply actions

Against lefties

Sure he's done all his damage vs RHP but I think he's got a good approach against lefties. If he starts against one I don't think he's a zero. There are two good reasons to sit him vs lefties: Robb Quinlan needs to get some AB's, and we don't want to wear out Casey, who's never played a full season so far. But assuming we keep playing well and make the playoffs, Casey's bat and glove probably will be in there every day.

If I went to war and could only take one weapon, it would be an HK47.

by RallyMonkey5 on Jun 13, 2007 11:25 AM PDT reply actions

I agree

Even an MVP like Ortiz takes a 200 point hit historically against Lefties about where Kotch is for his career.

As for his approach anytime a young player can walk more than he strikes out, can go close to 100 ML ABs before striking out the first time in his career, and can foul off 15 pitches from an "in his prime" Pedro in a single at bat, he's gotta be something special.

DarkAngel hath spoken....

by darkangel01 on Jun 13, 2007 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions

MVP?

Probably not, but if he keeps this up, he's going to get some votes. What's amazing is: as well as he's been hitting, he's actually getting HOTTER recently.

If he can keep his May/June pace going (unlikely, but not impossible) he could finish around .350/20/100. Not bad...

"When you don't know that you don't know, it's a lot different than when you do know that you don't know" - Bill Parcells

by johnnyangel101 on Jun 13, 2007 11:32 AM PDT reply actions

Let's hope he doesn't

The last time we had a 1st baseman hit .350 with 20 homeruns and 100 RBIs he turned into Darin Erstad.

I'd settle his .330 and .550+ Slugging any day.

Another interesting observation regarding Kotch's stats is that the only real difference in OBP vs. Vlad is the intentional walks Vlad has been getting. If Kotch keeps hitting anywhere close to what he's doing now, those IWs will diminish making Vladdy all the more productive. If they don't then Casey gets to hit more with runners on base. Win/Win.

DarkAngel hath spoken....

by darkangel01 on Jun 13, 2007 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions

Bad comp

Erstad always struck out more than he walked. Not Casey; he had to go all the way up the ladder to Salt Lake before he hit his first professional season where he didn't walk more than he struck out, in 2004 as a 21-year-old in AAA, which would have made him one of the youngest players in that league at the time.

If pitchers can't get you to whiff, and you know the strike zone like the back of your own hand, you'll eventually get good pitches to hit. It is possible that Kotch is this year's flavor of Wally Joyner, but I doubt it. It's axiomatic that guys who hit a lot of doubles often end up hitting for power later in their careers; let's take a look at Kotchman, Joyner, Erstad, and two other players of interest. First, someone the Angels had high-visibility negotiations with two offseasons ago, Paul Konerko, and second, a player widely presumed to be on the block with the Rockies, Todd Helton (also the subject of trade rumors in years past):

Player Year Age Team AB/2B --------------------------------------- Kotchman 2004 21 Salt Lake 9.05 Erstad 1996 22 Edmonton 15.95 Joyner 1985 23 Edmonton 16.45 Konerko 1997 21 Albuquerque 15.58 Helton 1997 24 Col. Springs 12.65

I want you all to look upon Kotchman's doubles rate at Salt Lake and wonder upon the fact that he was accumulating them 72% faster at the same age as Konerko, and 40% faster than Helton while three years younger. Dude was going to erupt in the Show, no question about it.

Ervin Santana To AAA! (But only for road games.)

by scareduck on Jun 13, 2007 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions

Clarification

Guys who hit a lot of doubles in their minor league careers end up hitting homers in their major league careers.

Ervin Santana To AAA! (But only for road games.)

by scareduck on Jun 13, 2007 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions

The Erstad reference

was a joke.

Nice analysis however. Casey's power numbers took off after he starting opening his hips and turning on the ball. His approach was wrong for about a month or so.

The thing I like about Casey's chances to continue to thrive is indeed his eye at the plate and his overall discipline. It is going to be harder for opposing pitchers to feed him offspeed junk and get him to chase like has been the case with HK.

I love his future....just stay HEALTHY!!!

DarkAngel hath spoken....

by darkangel01 on Jun 13, 2007 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions

And by the way

Howie Kendrick: 11.60 AB/2B in 2006 as a 23-year-old.

Ervin Santana To AAA! (But only for road games.)

by scareduck on Jun 13, 2007 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions

Two points

First, on the negative side, he's doing in pretty much only against righties. That's not a knock so much as it's an observation. It's not his fault he's not in there against righties, but still, you have to add that to any evaluation.

Take the top 10 players in OPS in the AL, minus Casey, and minus the two catchers (Posada and Victor Martinez, since catchers routinely play less often than other position players). They average roughly 255 plate appearances. Casey only has 214, primarily against the side he hits better. Again, not a knock, but just something to keep in mind.

Second, on the positive side, for a guy who most people project to be a Mark Grace type 15-25 home run guy, he's been hitting some seriously long home runs this year. His last three or four have been absolute bombs. Real no-doubters. It's one thing to do that once or twice, but the authority with which he's hit his last few homers leads me to believe that while he may hit only around 20-25 this year, he's got some 35+ homer seasons in him before he's done.

by LA Seitz on Jun 13, 2007 12:18 PM PDT reply actions

Correction

It's not his fault he's not in there against righties

I mean lefties, obviously.

by LA Seitz on Jun 13, 2007 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions

Good call

Another positive more starters are righties.

I'm giving Figgins a big F U.

by hauldog on Jun 13, 2007 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions

Mark Grace be damned

I say his upside is Don Mattingly (hopefully without the back problems).

Besides, I can't picture Kotch chain smoking in the dugout.

DarkAngel hath spoken....

by darkangel01 on Jun 13, 2007 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions

I still say

a sea-level Todd Helton, only younger and thus more upside.

Ervin Santana To AAA! (But only for road games.)

by scareduck on Jun 13, 2007 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions

Better Sea-Level than C-Level

I got a C+ in Geometry as a sophomore in high school and consered the highest intelelctual achievement of my life.

by Rev Halofan on Jun 13, 2007 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions

I took my gentleman's C

in digital signal processing and was happy for it.

Ervin Santana To AAA! (But only for road games.)

by scareduck on Jun 13, 2007 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions

hooray for DSP!

Fuck that class with a hot iron in its ass

by shiftyeyedgoat on Jun 13, 2007 8:31 PM PDT up reply actions

Looks like you got an A in spelling, too.

'86 never happened!

by Downing Rules on Jun 13, 2007 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions

We'd be happy w/ Wally or Mark

And that's as far as I dare to hope at the moment.

Still, if you take out Casey's first cup of coffee (2004) and his mono year (2006), and instead combine 2005 & this year, you get this:

G H R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG 117 317 43 98 19 3 15 55 38 33 .309 .388 .530

I honestly don't think he's that good, especially considering his brutality so far against lefties (2 extra-base hits -- both doubles -- in 77 ABs), and I expect him to have more slumps this year. But it's fun to think otherwise!

by mattwelch on Jun 13, 2007 1:58 PM PDT reply actions

Grace's doubles rate

15.62 AB/2B at AAA Iowa in the then-American Association in 1988 as a 24-year-old. (I'm guessing the AA wasn't much of a hitter's league, since it contains all the PCL American divisions' parks, but I could be wrong.) Kotchman was playing in the majors as a regular at 23. He has more upside than Grace, whom I view as the very bottom of his ability level.

Ervin Santana To AAA! (But only for road games.)

by scareduck on Jun 14, 2007 8:56 AM PDT up reply actions