Adam Dunn?
by AMB07 on Jun 29, 2007 3:39 PM PDT
61 comments
This is my two diary minimum. Slow day at the office.
I am starting to think long and hard about trading for Adam Dunn. I was watching my second favorite team (phillies) the other day and witnessed Adam Dunn hit a towering shot into the upper right field decks of Citizens Bank Ballpark (it was Bondesq).
I know he strikes out alot but he also walks alot. Bottom line: I can see him hitting alot of homeruns behind Vlad and helping the team. Our lineup would be really impressive with the addition of Dunn. Kennedy and Dibble were taliking about how good of clubhouse guy he is and that he would probably do better if he was playing on a contender. He could rotate between DH, left field and firstbase.
We would probably have to give up Santana and a couple of prospects. Not sure that I would do this but it is tempting.
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I have a man-crush on Dunn
Based on his stupid trade with the Nationals last year, Krivsky seems to like middle relievers. Not saying this trade is actually possible, but would you do Shields for Dunn? It would be a tough decision for me since Dunn can become a free agent after this season if he's traded. But I might do it.
I'd do Santana for Dunn. No doubt.
No where to play him
No
I don't care about the K's, it just means he won't hit .300, so what!
He may have some problems with RISP, but I'll take the bases empty walks and HR's.
Anyway, if we can get him at a good price seeing as he is a half season rental, then sure squeeze him in. But some other team will value him more than the Angels, and they will be lucky to have him.
He is terrible at first
There is nothing cheap about a 40 HR guy even if it is a rental.
Bad fielder?
</sarcasm>
by anaheimisnotla on Jun 30, 2007 12:44 AM PDT up reply actions
DH reference?
Bad fielder?
Damn, too bad there isn't a spot where he can just hit and not play in the field....
</sarcasm>
by anaheimisnotla on Jun 30, 2007 12:45 AM PDT up reply actions
No, No, No and No
This isn't a fantasy league after all, this is for keeps!
Enjoy the man-crush but I think if the Angels were to do either deal they'd look dumb. And when Santana throws a no-hitter we'll all be hating it. I'm glad Angelos nixed the deal last year too, for what Miggy has been providing back east--it ain't much and he isn't playing like he did when he was an Athletic.
Besides, this is one of the greatest beginnings an Angels team has ever had and why would we want to mess with what's developed the first half?
It's tough...
Santana >>>>>>> Ortiz
It seems it would be nice to have both
4 OF's w/o counting Garret
Willits
GMJ
Rivera
I like what Dunn does with the HR's and BB's
Exactly right
Send Kendry down
Who is that power hitting 3rd baseman
We Have PLENTY of pitching
Trade strength for a weakness = deep playoffs.
Keep too much strength and overlook weakness = early elimination.
Look at it his way. The new playoff system is setup so that you can have a three man rotation. Enough off days make this possible.
A Rotation of
Lackey
Escobar
Weaver
in the playoffs is deadly. Homeruns are incredibly important in the playoffs, they provide hude momentum swings that turn the tide of a game. Santana is a non-factor in the playoffs, Dunn hitting behind Vlad is a factor that would scare teams.
Lets think of the big picture here, winning the World Series. Santana may have some potential, but we cannot overlook the fact we need a slugger, something we havent had since our WS MVP Glaus.
I say do it.
Aybar and Santana for Dunn. Resign Dunn to a four year deal.
Money.
by Pwn on Jun 29, 2007 7:33 PM PDT reply actions
Reality check
Vlad
Willits
GMJ
Kotchman
Rivera
Morales
G.A.
Last time I looked, that's 7 players for 5 positions. Five of whom are pretty damned good hitters for their positions, the sixth of whom will probably turn into a pretty good hitter, and the seventh of whom is a guy we won't bench (though he's frequently hurt, and maybe he'll sit more against lefties).
The love-Dunn crowd wants to trade starting pitching -- the scarcest resource there is out there, with the possible exception of catchers who can hit -- and shovel over an extra $10 mil a year, to fix something that ain't broke (unless suffering through a month of Kendry Morales is just too much for you to bear).
It's not serious.
Sorry, but you are wrong
The Angels currently rank 25th in the majors in home runs. I would say that needs to be fixed.
And yes, starting pitching is scare, more the reason to trade a pitcher. We get lots of pitching in a market where pitching is scare therefore our most abundant resource is worth lots to everyone else.
I dont care how many players we have for certian places, NONE of them can do what Dunn does. That argument is shitty, "look we got a bunch of mediocre players for these positions, we are fine"
Sorry, three rice rockets dont make a Jag.
by Pwn on Jun 29, 2007 7:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Christ
Totally agreed. Here's a great way to fix it -- address the power position that has no long-term solution. That position is third base.
Also, a "fix" by the name of Juan Rivera -- who plays Adam Dunn's positions, except with skill! -- is coming back in the second half.
And yes, starting pitching is scare, more the reason to trade a pitcher. We get lots of pitching in a market where pitching is scare therefore our most abundant resource is worth lots to everyone else.
That is awe-inspiringly incoherent. Also, we are exactly one injury away, on an injury-prone staff, from having all our depth at SP wiped out. Joe Saunders is a quality 5th starter, but Dustin Moseley? And I shudder to imagine who's behind that.....
I dont care how many players we have for certian places
You'd make one helluva GM, Einstein.
NONE of them can do what Dunn does.
That's true -- nobody strikes out every third at bat, nobody fails to drive in 100 a year in a hitter's paradise despite 40 HRs a year, and nobody plays defense worse than Beachbum Willy (who is, to be fair, 68 years old).
That argument is shitty, "look we got a bunch of mediocre players for these positions, we are fine"
Vlad Guerrero = not mediocre
Casey Kotchman = not mediocre
Reggie Willits = not mediocre
Gary Matthews = not mediocre
Juan Rivera = not mediocre
Not only that, each of them play much better defense than Adam Dunn! Also, we don't need to trade a starting pitcher for any of them, nor increase payroll!
You want to solve a "problem" that won't last another six weeks, tops. (Six weeks during which Kendry Morales might learn to hit major league pitching, thus becoming a valuable, cheap asset for the next half-decade.) You're like Winnie the Pooh at a honey factory ... LOOK AT ALL THE BEES, MUST .. EAT .. DELICIOUS .. GOO.
This roster has two problems -- lack of power at 3B, and a bad front end of the bullpen. Adam Dunn solves neither, and would create a new hole. No thanks.
I'll agree with this, except...
"Vlad Guerrero = not mediocre"
Correct.
"Casey Kotchman = not mediocre"
Incorrect; he is untested at best, and has looked awful at the beginning of the year, and now recently coming back form the concussion.
"Reggie Willits = not mediocre"
Incorrect; see Casey Kotchman, except Willits showed he can be a slightly slower Figgins on the basepaths with a good batting eye... until the league adjusts. Who knows how teams will react to Willits the second time around.
"Gary Matthews = not mediocre"
Incorrect; He has a VERY MEDIOCRE BAT AT BEST. His defense is sparkling, there's no question, but his bat has perenially been terrible, save last year and most of this year. Inconsistent describes him as of late, mediocre describes his career offense.
"Juan Rivera = not mediocre"
Incorrect; Another case of "how will the league adjust to him?" with the additional question of "how will his leg adjust to being completely shattered and playing zero baseball for 6+ months?" Remember, he hit the majority of his 2006 HR PRIOR to the All-star break. He hit very few afterwards. Coincidence? Probably not.
This roster has two problems -- lack of power at 3B, and a bad front end of the bullpen. Adam Dunn solves neither, and would create a new hole. No thanks.
Very BAD and incorrect! Do you not remember 2004-2006 (and long long before in the 90s)? We have had serious missing components in power ALL AROUND in the team. Juan Rivera hit the second most homeruns on the club last year at 23. That's nearly to the level of pathetic.
We need someone like Glaus or Salmon or DMac (what he was projected to be) to be playing in any position, 3B or not. It would be nice if we could fit a cog to do so at 3B, but the market is looking tough unless we homegrow our own.
by shiftyeyedgoat on Jun 29, 2007 10:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Is it amateur night?
We'll start with Casey "untested at best" Kotchman -- 7th in the league in adjusted OPS+, 3rd among AL first basemen in Win Shares. In 2004, at the tender age of 21, he hit .372/.423/.558 at AAA. If you wipe out his mono-related statistics of 2006, in his last two years of big-league ball, encompassing 381 plate appearances -- less than a month away from qualifying for a batting title -- he's hit .304/.386/.515. What kind of planet must you live on to conclude this is "barely adequate"?
Willits? .448 OBP in Triple A last year; .411 in the Show. This year, it's .430 (3rd in the league). When the "league adjusts," do you really think that'll end up lower than .375? I'll bet you cash dollar bills he finishes in the top 3 among AL leadoff men in OBP. Note the lack of "top 3" in the definition of "mediocre."
Matthews? Since the second half of 2005 -- when he finally made the starting lineup for good -- he's hit .293/.358/.474 in nearly 1300 plate appearances, while playing a credible center field. Please note how similar that is to this year's numbers of .285/.342/.452 (especially given the difference in hitting conditions between Arlington and Anaheim). The only thing "barely adequate" about that is your analysis.
"How will the league adjust" to Juan Rivera? Jeez, I dunno, he's only had 1600 plate appearances in the bigs, so I'm sure his 115 OPS+ is just a fad. Once pitchers really get to know him -- maybe in his 40s? -- he'll be toast. Meanwhile, please note that "neither good nor bad," as measured by OPS+, is 100. So he's 15% better than that; 31% better last year.
Do you not remember 2004-2006 (and long long before in the 90s)? We have had serious missing components in power ALL AROUND in the team.
True. In 2004-06, we had Adam Kennedy; now we have Howie Kendrick, whose slugging near .450. In 2004-05 we had Darin Erstad, & 2006 we had a mono-ridden corpse; this year we have Casey Kotchman, who's slugging over .500. We've had Erstad, Finley and Figgins playing center; now we have Gary Matthews. We used to have Bengie Molina catching; now we have Mike Napoli. If you look closely you'll note that we are improving our power production all over the diamond, with grounds for expecting continued improvement.
wow, you. Are. So. Wrong,
So, the pretense: don't dredge up some passe minor league numbers to try to justify the weak bats of the team (PCL has extreme hitters parks, remember).
Kotchman HAD great numbers. And now? He's looking like he's lost them, given his injury most recent.
Willits and his bat in the minors has been remarkable, enough to justify bringing him up at the same time as Tommy Murphy (oops). He learned that no hitter on the Angels offense takes a pitch, so, thriving on such a haphazard offensive take, he gasp takes a pitch! Guaranteed, his current 35+ SO would skyrocket under the careful watch of Mickey Hatcher's "hack and slash" offense.
GMJ's career numbers in a nutshell:
BA OBP SLG
.265 .337 .422
TOTAL HR in 12 MLB seasons: 88.
Tell me that doesn't scream of inconsistent. Tell me. I dare you. And if you do, go placate your decision with "eating crow" like the neighsayers. Maybe he's come into his own, and myabe he hasn't; either way, his bat is INCONSISTENT. There is not argument there.
Juan Rivera will not be hitting homeruns directly after his berth in the disabled&minor leagues. I can all but guarantee you, he will not hit well this season. If he does, more power to him.
quote: "now we have Howie Kendrick"
untested rookie, nice.
"this year we have Casey Kotchman, who's slugging over .500." before or after his slump in April/May and concussion? Also, unproven.
"now we have Gary Matthews." Joy. 11$mil per year for some jackass who seldom makes a play in Center field and is almost directly connected to hormone dispersion in the Southeast.
"We used to have Bengie Molina catching; now we have Mike Napoli."
A career .333 Caught Stealing percentage with EXCELLENT game calling, vs. the baby-arm Napoli whose sole contribution to the team is that he's Italian and Scioscia likes his traditional Italian ways... along with his paltry .208 CS%.
"If you look closely you'll note that we are improving our power production all over the diamond, with grounds for expecting continued improvement."
Prove it. Show me the numbers. Go.
by shiftyeyedgoat on Jun 30, 2007 3:39 AM PDT up reply actions
Hard to "prove" something
We are 24th in team home home runs currently. That puts us one behind the Cards and one in front of the Twins.
If you're going to pull some magical stat of "power production" out of your ass, now might be a good time to defend your argument.
by shiftyeyedgoat on Jun 30, 2007 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions
ROTFALOL, FALAFEL, etc.
Napoli vs. Molina -- .446/.408
Kotchman vs. Erstad -- .415 (.520 this year).413 (no higher than .400 since 2000)
Kendrick vs. Kennedy -- .428.391
Cabrera vs. Eckstein -- .407/.361
Matthews vs. Figgins -- .422 (no lower than .436 the last four years).394
Those are five significant upgrades since 2004, with both Kotch & Kendrick sure bets (given their age & talent) to far exceed their career averages (as both are doing in fact right now).
The only positions that are backsliding, power-wise, are LF (two sluggers hurt; Willits is an on on-base machine), and 3B. Designated Hitter, besides being a sinkhole this year (again, with Rivera & his career .474 SLG on the DL, Hillenbrand undershooting his low expectations, and Morales maybe not ready), is still about the same poor level it's been for four of the last five years. This is likely to improve the second half of the year without lifting a finger.
So yes, our power is increasing all over the diamond, and has a terrific chance to improve even further given the young ages & high upside of many of those upgrades. OH HAI WE DONT HIT HOMERUNZ PLZ GET DUNN is a cute text message, but in addition to the multiple ignorances you've spewed already ("untested rookie" as a description for Howie Kendrick might be my favorite), here's what your no-defense, high-strikeout savior would likely to do for us:
.219.257/.459
.236/.368/.479
.221/.359/.446
Those are his stats away from the bandbox of Great American Ball Park the last three years.
So yeah, totally, let's trade a starting pitcher for them apples. I am so Pwned! LOL!
Yeah, but Matt...
But really, you shouldn't feel the need to respond to anyone dumb enough to post this:
Kotchman HAD great numbers. And now? He's looking like he's lost them, given his injury most recent.
That honestly might be the lamest "analysis" I've ever seen. 14 whole plate appearances. Shit, might as well just cut him right now.
I must say
Here's the money quote:
Guess where we finished ranked in
TWENTY-FIRST.
We also finished 4th in runs scored that year.
Okay, so we're 24th in homers this year. So our runs scored total must suck, too, right? Try 6th in all of baseball, a mere 5 runs behind third place in all of baseball, averaging 5.1 runs per game.
There's more than one way to score a run in the game, and the Angels happen to be of a method not involving putting the ball over the fence every time at the plate.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Jun 30, 2007 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions
And I quote
Wtf lol, can I have your drugs plz?
by Pwn on Jun 30, 2007 5:25 AM PDT up reply actions
I'd also like to point out
That sorta makes your whole argument about him unPROVEN.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Jun 30, 2007 1:04 AM PDT up reply actions
Pardon me
His big month (July) was 11 HR, which to date would be 5 less than his previous career year of 16 in 2005.
Pardon my mistake.
by shiftyeyedgoat on Jun 30, 2007 3:19 AM PDT up reply actions
You'll also notice
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Jun 30, 2007 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Playoffs, Matt, Playoffs
We have all of those, just need more pop.
I dont know how you can argue with that.
And how the fuck do you even come close to even thinking that Morales in going to be an answer to any problem with power, or the DH?
-He's not proven at the major league level.
-He's never hit 40 or more home runs.
-He's played the majority of his baseball career in Cuba and hitter friendly parks in the Angels farm system.
That won't solve any power problems, we need a slugger.
Rivera is streaky at best and wont play an inning in the majors this year. He hasnt picked up a bat in months, hasn't seen any pitching whatsoever in that time (especially pitchers who are right in the swing of the season). He is a line drive hitter who has lots of holes in his swing (constantly chases high fastballs, low and away offspeed pitches) and can be overagressive.
Can we stop talking about unproven people and actually make a trade for someone who we KNOW is going to hit homeruns and just stop waiting for Santana to turn into Cy Young and Morales into Babe Ruth?
by Pwn on Jun 29, 2007 10:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Hilelnbrand was proven
by Rev Halofan on Jun 29, 2007 10:18 PM PDT up reply actions
How
Dunn > Morales > Hillenbrand > GA
by Pwn on Jun 29, 2007 10:20 PM PDT up reply actions
your obsession with proven
Your use of the word PROVEN is a substitute for "GUYS I JUST DON'T LIKE" - when you want to dismiss an argument you say someone is not "PROVEN" which doesn't mean shit, because you have no hard and fast, quantifiable definition of "PROVEN, you just throw it around like "COMMUNIST" or "FASCIST" at things you do not like.
by Rev Halofan on Jun 29, 2007 11:15 PM PDT up reply actions
stick to politics
(rough analogy: Libertarian John McCain)
by Rev Halofan on Jun 30, 2007 12:30 AM PDT up reply actions
and I was slamming PWN
by Rev Halofan on Jun 30, 2007 12:30 AM PDT up reply actions
I know!
This one is for the Angels pitching staff
by Rev Halofan on Jun 30, 2007 12:52 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes Rev, very good
Its very simple, prospects are exactly that. Players who MIGHT have an effect at the major league level. Then there are players who actually have done something over many years, these are veterans.
by Pwn on Jun 30, 2007 2:45 AM PDT up reply actions
And Frankie was also a rookie
And further, your almost quantifiably pathetic divisive discussion of "proven vs. unproven" is childish at best, and scorned sore-loser of prediction at worst.
The mere mention of realpolitik spectrum is an admission of defeat to poor simile and even worse argumentative stance.
A major league player is not 'proven' until he shows he can have success at the major league level for several years without inconsistency. Is that too hard to understand? I can simplify if you wish.
by shiftyeyedgoat on Jun 30, 2007 3:47 AM PDT up reply actions
Proven
Dudes, lay off the crackpipe...
In case you have not watched a lot of baseball, a "proven" player can slump just as easily as a minor league callup can "bust-out".
by Rev Halofan on Jun 30, 2007 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions
I remember my first shrooms
Also, maybe we're just a little tiny speck on some giant's fingernail!
Some answers
If all you have is 3 starters, you won't get to the playoffs.
And how the fuck do you even come close to even thinking that Morales in going to be an answer to any problem with power, or the DH?
He probably won't this year. But that's not what he's being asked to do -- he's being asked to get some crucial developmental ABs right now, until G.A. and/or Juan Rivera returns, a couple weeks from now. G.A. is no Adam Dunn, true, but he's a decent hitter (especially against RHP), and more importantly he's under contract here in the real world, so we're stuck with him until he gets hurt again. When that happens, Rivera should be about ready, and I'll take Rivera over Dunn any day in the week (he can play defense, he's hit well the last several years, he's 28, and he costs nothing).
Can we stop talking about unproven people and actually make a trade for someone who we KNOW is going to hit homeruns and just stop waiting for Santana to turn into Cy Young and Morales into Babe Ruth?
It's idiocy like that that was demanding we trade Kotchman for Konerko, re-sign Kennedy instead of give Kendrick a chance, and give up Napoli because he's had a few slumps. It's reactionary, impatient bullshit that thankfully has no audience in the Angels front office.
Reactionary
I would just rather have Dunn DHing nearly full time rather than have GA do anything at all, ever.
I cant believe people would argue with that. We arent spending the money, so I dont think you should worry about that aspect too much, as it litterally doesnt effect you, nor the team, whatsoever.
I think Morales can get "developmental at bats" in AAA.
by Pwn on Jun 30, 2007 2:39 AM PDT up reply actions
And I would like the tooth fairy to be real
Here in the real world, we cannot DFA Garret Anderson, nor can we trade him, nor will Mike Scioscia bench him more than maybe sitting him against lefties as long as he's healthy. Giving up precious pitching for Adam Dunn would then take away ABs from Reggie Willits, which strikes me as terrible. Then, when Juan Rivera gets healthy (and all we need is for Juan Rivera to be healthy in September, which I think is a decent bet), you have an even bigger logjam. And then, when Kendry Morales is ready to hit big league pitching -- which might be sooner than you think; we're finding out -- you have an even bigger logjam. And then, when you want to rest Vlad, or maybe have him become a half-time DH (which I think he should be starting next year), you got some big Billy Beane wet dream of an oaf standing in his way.
Look, I would love Adam Dunn to be the DH instead of Kendry Morales for the next two weeks. And I'd choose him over G.A., sure. BUT WE DON'T GET THAT CHOICE. The question isn't "how hard can we wish for a pony," it's "what can we reasonably do with real-world construction of this roster?" The fact is, G.A.'s here to stay unless he's hurt, and despite the un-fantastic current production at DH, it's actually the most jammed position in the organization, given the various contracts, aging patterns, and guys getting un-hurt. So, your dedication to Fantasy Baseball is impressive, but sadly not very relevant.
Also
If you were to add a realistic bat to the lineup, who would you go after? Dunn is a tangible possibility, someone who can immediately help the team. A power hitting, gold glove third baseman might be a bit more expensive and also probably impossible to obtain at the moment.
by Pwn on Jun 30, 2007 2:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Are you a betting man?
How much would you like to put on that?
We CAN outslug our opponents
Let's face it - Cabrera and Figgins will most likely cool off. But it doesn't look like they'll hit .080 the rest of they year, just a more "normal" .290-.300, which still isn't half-bad. But if VLAD gets hot again like the second half of last year (.368/.433.618), look out...
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