Two Complete Games Thread

by Rev Halofan on Jul 31, 2007 11:41 PM PDT in Angels News

FIRST TIME SINCE 1993 the Angels have had back-to-back complete games.

Is the bullpen better off a little rested or will this make them rusty?

Does Weaver have a chance in Hades to pitch deep into the game, especially with the team facing Seattle's Emperor Felix?

While other teams wonder how to plug that hole or hang in there until something breaks their way, Angel fans fret about our general manager having built too good a team to be helped by a trade deadline deal and then we pace the floor, fit-to-be-tied over a bullpen getting rest. Is the rested bullpen Jose Molina Revisionism redux -AKA- something that is really nothing? Are these considerations, musings and anxious ponderings the result of being fans spoiled with a team in sole possession of first place for 84 consecutive days?

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What are the odds on three straight CG?

80-to-1?

"A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on." - Sir Winston Churchill

by WeaverMania on Jul 31, 2007 11:40 PM PDT reply actions

An interesting question

In 2005 the Angels tossed 11 shutouts (roughly once every 14.7 games) Last season the Angels shutout their opponents 12 times (once every 13.5 games). This season they have 6 shutouts through 105 games (1 in 17.5). If we take the average shut-out rate for the last 3 years, we come out with about 1:14.2 . Without factoring in any variables like shutouts by WTY or the shutout rate of the M's, etc... I'd set the odds at 1:2862 against the Angels throwing three shutouts in a row. Of course since we're just talking about a single game now... the odds are right around 1:14 :) See mom, college does come in handy...

by Southie on Aug 1, 2007 1:18 AM PDT up reply actions

I should pay more attention

I just let my brain start working on shutouts without even reading the real question. I'll do it this time for CG's instead.

7 CG : Rate = 1 per 23.1
6 CG : Rate = 1 per 27.1
4 CG : Rate = 1 per 26.3

3 year average rate = 1 per 25.2 (17 CG/429 G)

Odds = 1:16002 against 3 consecutive CG's

by Southie on Aug 1, 2007 1:29 AM PDT up reply actions

So, what you're telling me is that betting $1

Could net me a new Kia? Is that what you're saying?

If so, good deal.

"A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on." - Sir Winston Churchill

by WeaverMania on Aug 1, 2007 1:31 AM PDT up reply actions

well...

Betting now nets you...a bus pass? If you make the bet now, they'll have to throw three more. :)

by Southie on Aug 1, 2007 2:06 AM PDT up reply actions

The odds are much better than that

now that the first two have been thrown!

by Rev Halofan on Aug 1, 2007 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions

the last part is confusing

by rjcicc on Jul 31, 2007 11:41 PM PDT reply actions

Screw the regular season.

I'm following it but let's face it, we're ready to go deep. Here's our starting 4.

MySpace 2.87
Thunder 3.07
WTY 3.68
Colonel 3.16

Daisuke 3.75
Beckett3.41
Lester 4.26
Wakefield 4.59
Shil? 4.20

Carmona 3.27
Bath 3.58
Byrd 4.40
Westbrook? 5.85

Verlander 3.49
Bonderman 4.33
Miller 3.76
Durbin 4.42
Gambler? 5.23

It's within reach. We can beat these guys. This may be our year!

by melvintoast on Aug 1, 2007 12:39 AM PDT reply actions

With all the problems

Thunder Mountain was having these previous couple of starts. This was the confidence builder that Big John from Abilene needed. Thank you Mikey. Two in a row nothing. Any complete game under Mike is totally underrated, and rarely heard of.

Let the pen rest. There is plenty of season yet to play. Them arms can use a rest at mid way thru the year.

Spoiled, bah. We could be in first place for the first 161 games and I would still feel the same. The season don't count until 162 is complete, and we are first in the west.

by eyespy on Aug 1, 2007 12:40 AM PDT reply actions

forgot to add

Goooooooooooooooo Haaaaaaaaalooooooooosssssssssssss

by eyespy on Aug 1, 2007 12:42 AM PDT up reply actions

indeed.

Actual odds are not necessarily Vegas odds... but yes. In the immortal words of Kevin from the Office: "If someone gives you ten-thousand to one on anything, you take it." I think this definitely applies.

by Southie on Aug 1, 2007 2:03 AM PDT reply actions

oops

still new to the commenting on this site... sorry.

by Southie on Aug 1, 2007 2:03 AM PDT up reply actions

Huh?

Does Weaver have a chance in Hades to pitch deep into the game, especially with the team facing Seattle's Emperor Felix?

What does the opposing pitcher have to do with how deep Weaver goes?

by LA Seitz on Aug 1, 2007 7:14 AM PDT reply actions

You can't fact-check poetry

by mattwelch on Aug 1, 2007 8:34 AM PDT up reply actions

Panther!

by melvintoast on Aug 1, 2007 8:46 AM PDT up reply actions

A little, but not a lot of rest looks good:

K-ROD
Days
Rest ERA
0 3.12
1 1.20
2 5.40
3 1.93
4 1.28
5 13.50
6 9.00

SCOT
Days
Rest ERA
0 3.00
1 1.96
2 1.42
3 0.00
4 4.91
6 0.00

And the halo shines tonight

by BP Scanner on Aug 1, 2007 7:45 AM PDT reply actions

LOL nice job. So if frankie has 2 days rest

you should play Scot.

And if Scot has 3 days or more than 4 days rest he's lights out.

Can you give us the standard deviation for those numbers?

by melvintoast on Aug 1, 2007 7:51 AM PDT up reply actions

Ha-Ha! Point well taken.

The problem with sports is that you have a very small finite data set with almost infinite variables. All you can try to do is get a general feel for trends. By the way, this data is for this year only. The data tends to confirm Scot's rubber arm and Frankie's need to have regular appearances because of his complex mechanics. That's about as far as I would take it. But Rev. asked the question, so I checked the data.

And the halo shines tonight

by BP Scanner on Aug 1, 2007 8:22 AM PDT up reply actions

I think the answer is that they are

musings and anxious ponderings the result of being fans spoiled with a team in sole possession of first place for 84 consecutive days?

by melvintoast on Aug 1, 2007 8:28 AM PDT up reply actions

I Think

Some people need to stop living and dying with every win and loss and realize - to quote the Angels fearless leader - "It's a long season. First place only matters in October."

Are there concerns?
Sure:
Vlad looks like there's something wrong with his power; plus he's reaching.
How long will GA stay healthy?
Are the Angels going into their awful habit of wasting great outings by Escobar with little/no run support?
What will Rivera give the team when he returns and how do you get him enough ABs to get him going?

"And the Anaheim Angels are the Champions of Baseball!"

by Grichfan on Aug 1, 2007 8:36 AM PDT reply actions

Why no props thrown out to Jeff Mathis?

With losing Jose Molina and his so-called rapport with the starters and now Napoli is down, it has thrust Jeff into the spotlight.

I'd like to give a "good job" to Mathis for being on the receiving end of these two complete games. He must be calling the right pitches.

'86 never happened!

by Downing Rules on Aug 1, 2007 9:56 AM PDT reply actions

No, no, no

It's all inspite of Mathis catching. So the pitchers should get an extra gold star for their performance.

by Seik1177 on Aug 1, 2007 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions

LOL two complete games in a row.

EXTRA GOLD STAR!

by melvintoast on Aug 1, 2007 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions

I love me some Judge Mathis!

by Sweetmeats on Aug 1, 2007 11:49 AM PDT reply actions

that was the point

of my previous comment :) The odds are at 1:25 for a CG tonight. That's why he only wins a bus pass and not a kia.

by Southie on Aug 1, 2007 12:24 PM PDT reply actions

stick these comments down at the bottom :)

grr... I need to get the hang of replying to the right post.

by Southie on Aug 1, 2007 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions

This question has now been answered.

How did our well rested bullpen do last night? Let's recap. Oliver did pretty damned good. But, then, he has had a couple of outings quite recently. Then what do we have? Uh, yeah. Rodriguez/Shields/Speier combined for 4 1/3 innings and surrendered 8 hits, 2 earned runs against two strikeouts, faced 21 batters and spent 75 pitches. Hmmm. Could have been better, I suppose. And an interesting dichotomy compared against Oliver's success.

But was there any reason to believe that any of that might have had anything to do with rust? Well, one might consider how poorly each of those three performed in their FIRST inning of real work, compared to their SECOND inning (Speier, of course, never got the chance for any second inning).

Conjecture? Sure. But one could wonder how the series might have fared had we given a Frankie or a Speier (the two relievers with the fewest innings since the All-Star break besides Jones/Gwyn) that initial live inning in the 8th or 9th of the Tuesday blowout before we got to a tight game like Wednesday's. It could not have turned out any worse than what actually happened and it might, just might, have turned out better.

by Stirrups on Aug 2, 2007 9:15 AM PDT reply actions