Adam Dunn not offered arbitration

by PhiSlamma on Dec 1, 2008 9:10 PM PST Comment 55 comments

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/diamondbacks/articles/2008/12/01/20081201dbacks-CR.html

This means Dunn can be had without giving up picks.

He has averaged 40 home runs the last five years (with 46 in 04), and averaged 100 RBI, 100+ walks, and a 800+ OPS in that time frame.

Obviously his average and strikeout rate leave something to be disired, not to mention his defense, but his bat would fit nicely after Hunter (or replacing his 5th spot).

Replacing GA in left or taking over DH would be the most logical options.

This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.

2 recs | Comment 55 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

If no Teix...

I’d sign Dunn for 3 years/$39 million to DH and/or play 1B…

Dude can mash and gets on base – I’d hit him in FRONT of Vlad and Hunter to make use of his high OBP.

Just a thought.

Jim Scully

Jim Scully Home
Haloville - Land of the Halos

by jimmuscomp on Dec 1, 2008 9:30 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

looking over his numbers i was impressed, for a pure power guy. i don’t know if 3-39 is going to work, but the Angels should look into him if Teix is somewhere else. i think he’ll go for alot higher only because once Teix signs then the market will heat up. or until people find out what Teix is atleast being offered.

by HALO_86 on Dec 2, 2008 12:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Does anyone else find Dunn boring?

give me The Defector.

by UCIHalo on Dec 1, 2008 9:43 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I'd love for this team to bore me with someone who hits for such power and gets on base that often.

by snowhor on Dec 1, 2008 9:48 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs

Yep....

Sorry sack of shit with his high OBP and 40 home run seasons….

Just kidding, UCIHalo….

Dunn would be an upgrade if no Teix….

Jim Scully

Jim Scully Home
Haloville - Land of the Halos

by jimmuscomp on Dec 1, 2008 10:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

i'm for it

even with a Tex signing.

this was brought up in another thread, and with the news that Garland may actually accept arbitration, could you imagine this…?

Figgins 3B
Kendrick 2B
Teixeira 1B
Guerrero RF/DH
Dunn LF/DH
Hunter CF
Napoli C
Morales DH/RF/LF
Wood SS

Lackey
Santana
Saunders
Weaver
Garland

Tex signs a huge deal for around $20MM/yr. Dunn signs for somewhere around $12MM/yr for like 3 years. you keep payroll around the same, you get more powerful, a little bit younger, and become a powerhouse. what’s not to love?

even if Garland doesn’t actually accept and goes somewhere else, we could flip Aybar and a prospect for a solid #4-5 starter. probably a younger one, too.

Kotch would've had that.

by howiestheman on Dec 1, 2008 10:23 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

again i think i said it before

Dunn is not gonna be 12 MM a year. think 13.5-16 Million range, depending on how the market shakes down.

Mr Moreno,
Please re-sign Tex.
Sincerely yours,
Halo fans everywhere

by anaheim angels on Dec 2, 2008 10:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

market is seriously down for him

and not many people seem to high on him
when the Nationals are considered real players for him, you know things can’t be that bad.

Kotch would've had that.

by howiestheman on Dec 2, 2008 11:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Lets see

A 239 batting average and a complete inability to hit with RISP.

Can’t walk runs in.

Man Ram please. OBP and and the ability to hit with RISP

Teixeira............Everything else can wait.

by hauldog on Dec 1, 2008 10:32 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

well then

In the last 3 years his average overall is .244, and with RISP is .234

Overall OPS of .897, .888 with RISP.

He is what he is all the time. I would be nervous about giving him a long term deal moving to the harder league and not being in a high scoring park, but the Angels desperately need a LHB with power and walks to balance the team.

His D is definitely worse than GA, but that can be mitigated with late inning replacements and DH time.

by elricsi on Dec 1, 2008 11:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with the LHB thing

but Manny is Manny. I’d take him over Ibanez or Dunn any day despite his non-southpawdness. I wouldn’t consider Burrell though because he is no where near Manny and thus Ibanez and Dunn get the edge over him by being lefties.

by Chzburger Jones on Dec 1, 2008 11:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

totally agree

Its all about balance. Between Vlad, Torii, Howie, and Kendry we have plenty of guys that will come out of their shoes trying to bring runners home. Its no secret that we desperately need an infusion of power and patience (Napster can’t do it all himself). Obviously Dunn is not ideal, but he’d cost half of what Manny wants, and in my opinion is a much better option than Burrell, Ibanez, Giambi, etc.

by dmhead on Dec 2, 2008 10:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed.

Plus Man Ram isn’t AS bad defensively and he can hit homers in any ballpark. He hit 17 during his time in Los Angeles and that isn’t exactly a hitters park since they face the same marine layer issues that we do in Anaheim. Adam Dunn benefited from playing in Cincinnati and his home run rate alarmingly decline when he went to Arizona. He ended up hitting his annual 40 homers because he was on pace to break that before he got traded.

by Chzburger Jones on Dec 1, 2008 11:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The idea is to take the walk if you don't get the right pitch to hit.

A walk is better than an out. It keeps the threat alive.

by snowhor on Dec 1, 2008 11:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Well for the 15 mil or so he is going to get I would like him to hit with men on base

Not just extend innings.

Teixeira............Everything else can wait.

by hauldog on Dec 2, 2008 1:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think the patient hitter would like to get a hit as well, but is smart enough to recognize that swinging at something other than his pitch is more likely to result in an out.

Case in point: Howie Kendrick in the playoffs. He wanted to get a hit because there were runners on base, so he didn’t care what pitch was thrown to him and swung at everything.

What made Barry Bonds such a great hitter, well in addition to the steriods, is he was smart enough to take the walk if he didn’t get his pitch. Once a player learns that there is no shame in walking, he will produce better because he’ll be less likely to give away outs.

And I would expect this from someone at any salary.

by snowhor on Dec 2, 2008 9:38 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs

I appreciate a walk

Spin it any way you want, the guy can not hit with RISP.

Teixeira............Everything else can wait.

by hauldog on Dec 2, 2008 9:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Okay, yeah, it's just spin. I'm totally just makin' this shit up.

And on that note, he hit .234/.405/.483 over the past 3 years with RISP and .244/.379/.518 overall. Seems like he hits to his true ability in all situations.

So, go ahead and spin it any way you want, as I’m sure you will if you’re one of those who think a player magically becomes a different hitter with runner on versus off.

by snowhor on Dec 2, 2008 5:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

My point is this:

$15-16 Million dollar guys need to do more than walk. You really want him to walk so Mathis or someone else can hit into a double play?

He should drive the runs in, which he has shown an inability to do.

Tex has a better OBP. I love his OBP. He also HITS the ball.

Teixeira............Everything else can wait.

by hauldog on Dec 3, 2008 9:48 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

You point out the problem here perfectly.

Dunn wouldn’t be the problem for taking the walk, it would be the impatient hitter behind him, Mathis in your scenario, who fucks this team up.

And this debate was never about Tex or Dunn. This started as Dunn should be Ninja’s to do list after Tex. And Dunn’s .518 SLG shows he does more than walk.

by snowhor on Dec 3, 2008 10:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

My problem is paying him that much money to NOT be an imact hitter

Teixeira............Everything else can wait.

by hauldog on Dec 3, 2008 2:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Rec'd for excellent content!!!

Jim Scully

Jim Scully Home
Haloville - Land of the Halos

by jimmuscomp on Dec 3, 2008 10:10 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs

I'll return the favor.

by snowhor on Dec 3, 2008 10:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

What is up

with the love fest for Dunn? I know that 40 HRs and 100 RBIs would be great to get from one guy, but at the cost of a .240 average and 170 Ks. It seems like it’s all or nothing with his at-bat and add in his liabilities on defense and it’s no thanks to Dunn.

by turs12 on Dec 1, 2008 11:34 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I think Brandon Wood

could hit .239 and strikeout 160+ times…
…but he MIGHT be better than that!

Dunn ain’t and he will cost 30 times more than Wood.

by Rev Halofan on Dec 1, 2008 11:36 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Came here to make the same argument

Well stated. I am so comfortable with our in-house talent, that I would way rather they saved the money if they can’t sign Teixeira, or even Frankie or CC. I feel like those are the only moves to make, and if they can’t be done, I am more than happy to see what these youngsters are capable of when given the starting nod. We need a lil more pop, but sacrificing hits for homers and strikeouts doesn’t seem like Angels baseball to me.

White trashin' the 909

by Red114 on Dec 1, 2008 11:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Wood no walky

Wood may hit .239 and K 160+ times, but he’ll still only walk 35-55 times at the most – less than half of what Dunn would do to get on base. I understand the point you’re making against Dunn, but I don’t think it’s safe to say Wood can provide the same value in terms of OB.

by Sethy on Dec 2, 2008 7:35 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

No, but...

Wood also plays much better D at a premium position. Combine that with the potential to be better than Dunn all at a low cost and I’d say the two are pretty close in actual value.

All that being said, if the Angels have money in the budget to sign Dunn, I’m not going to complain. The guy is a well above average hitter, despite his problems with the K.

I feel the need, the need...for speed!

by Gorbachav5 on Dec 2, 2008 6:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

close in actual value?

I definetely see the point you are making, and recognize it, but at some point you need to have more +4 win players making 15 Million than +1 Win players making 300k

Mr Moreno,
Please re-sign Tex.
Sincerely yours,
Halo fans everywhere

by anaheim angels on Dec 2, 2008 10:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure what it's safe to say

Wood is young, and hasn’t really had a chance to shine yet. I understand that Dunn, despite the whiffs, gets on base a lot. But that is a lot of money to pay for walks. I have no problem spending money, but when guys like GMJ are sucking (almost literally and figuratively) off of bloated contracts, you better make for damn sure that the money is going to the highest caliber player. That is Teixeira or CC, or even Manny. That’s it. Save the money, and let Kendry and Wood start rakin’ like I think they can. There are plenty of teams that would kill to get their hands on those two.

White trashin' the 909

by Red114 on Dec 2, 2008 7:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I like where you're going with this...

Majority of world series winners win with home grown talent and select free agents. When the right players (Tex – Manny – CC) come along in FA, you try to grab one. Same with trades. Everyone else you sign or trade for just kinda fills in the cracks. The Angels learned their lesson from GMJ. The best CF on the market that specific year doesn’t always translate into a good signing. Maybe we should go all out and try to sign two of the big three this year, and let the rest fall where they may for the right price. I’m happy in house, but I have a man crush on great pitching (Lackey-Sabathia-Peavy-Santana-Saunders), but it’ll cost some of our youth for Peavy. So, double edged sword.

I’m cool with Manny and CC. We have a viable replacement for Tex in Morales. We don’t have a great SP where CC would fill in, or a great LF for Manny. Though Dunn is available and for a substantially lower cost.

by matt92130 on Dec 3, 2008 1:37 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Bring Back...

D-Mac!

Peanuts...Get your Overpriced Peanuts!

by Angel Hawker on Dec 2, 2008 12:40 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

D-Mac

Man crush…. agreed. Love the guy.

by matt92130 on Dec 3, 2008 1:38 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

BTW, he hits in Cincinati, can someone say inflation?

by Big Bad , "VLAD"! on Dec 2, 2008 1:41 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

I was going to make the same arguement

however his Home/Road aren’t that drastically different. Still don’t like that he’s a all or nothing guy.

by Seik1177 on Dec 2, 2008 10:32 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

all nothing or walk

we have enough high contact low OBP guys. The difference between hitting .250 and .233 is 20 hits a year over 600 ABs. There are 23 weeks in the season. Thats less than 1 hit a week. Thats a seeing eye grounder, or a bloop, or a defensive. mis-positioning. and also, do you think Vlad or Torii or Tex is gonna get alot more fastballs and hittable pitches if they see Dunn on deck? Think about what a pitcher thinks when he sees Figgins on first, Vlad at the plate, Tex on deck and Dunn in the hole (and then torii, then naps possibly). You think Vlad is gonna get hittable pitches? Yes he will. Teixiera is already selective, but he could be even more so with Dunn as protection. You guys have been complaining about not having a big bat for a long time (me included) and now one can potentially fall into our laps for cheaper and better and more plausible then ever before (with the possible exception of A-Ram who didnt even pursue FA), and were complaining and nitpicking him and saying that we dont need him. Also, think of the impact on the young guys when they see Tex and Dunn and Naps takin pitches, driving balls, and being selective. When a player can take a walk they become a much better hitter. Think of how much better GA or Howie would be if they just took walks more.

Mr Moreno,
Please re-sign Tex.
Sincerely yours,
Halo fans everywhere

by anaheim angels on Dec 2, 2008 10:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

You're right about the average thing

My issue is the strike outs, I know alot of people don’t believe in “productive outs”, but watching this team since Scioscia took over I’ve seen numerous times were outs moving the runner up has resulted in runs. If Dunn was putting the ball in play hitting .233/.400/.500, I would like him more.

With Napoli & Dunn in the line up we could be looking at 250 – 300 (strike outs) outs where the ball isn’t even put into play from 2 players. Add Wood who’s strike out rate was in the high 20% range. This scares me

by Seik1177 on Dec 3, 2008 10:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

and even with all those K's

between the 3 of them, that’s close to 100 HRs.

i’ll take the K’s for the added muscle.

Kotch would've had that.

by howiestheman on Dec 3, 2008 10:40 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I haven't seen any hard numbers, but...

A strike out isn’t such a bad thing when the alternative could be a double play. I agree with your statement about productive outs, but I’d bet the number of productive outs and double plays is about the same…so it’s a wash. I don’t have any numbers to back this up, just thinking off the top of my head.

I was uncool before uncool was cool.

by WiHaloFan on Dec 3, 2008 11:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think I just have a different opinion about strike outs

anytime a ball is put into play any number of things can happen (gets a hit, makes an outs, fielder makes errors, etc… ) with a strike out you really don’t have the possibility of anything happening except mostly likely an out (yes, I know about the PB/WP strikeout).

So IMO Strikeouts are the worst kinda out you can make because they put no pressure on the other teams fielder to “make the play”.

by Seik1177 on Dec 3, 2008 1:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know...

I seem to remember quite a few times this year hoping for a strikeout with Mathis or GMJ batting with a runner on first. GMJ especially seemed to love himself some sharp grounds to 2B.

by snowhor on Dec 3, 2008 4:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

With that frame of mind

I guess you’ld like to see Vlad strike out a little more.

by Seik1177 on Dec 5, 2008 11:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

You guessed wrong. I can tell the difference between a player who can hit and ones who can't.

by snowhor on Dec 5, 2008 4:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure if that's as back handed as it looked.

The reason I mentioned Vlad, is he grounded into 27 double plays while Mathis(1)/GMJ combined for 13.

My memories of Mathis & GMJ were weak popups to the middle infielders on the 1st pitch or being down 0-2

As far as knowing the “difference between a player who can hit and ones who can’t.”, well I’m going to leave that statement alone.

by Seik1177 on Dec 5, 2008 4:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Idea

Let’s have Dunn bat leadoff!!!! Brian Downing style. Except that it’d really clog up the bases worse than the 405 at 5 pm.

by Sethy on Dec 3, 2008 3:30 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Sosh wouldn't know what to do with leadoff hitter who got on base 40% of the time.

by snowhor on Dec 3, 2008 4:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

You are right because Figgy never that right? Twice........

Erstad also had an OBP of 400+ as a lead off man one year.

Teixeira............Everything else can wait.

by hauldog on Dec 3, 2008 5:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

WOW

Looking at SLG as opposed to OBP is very bad.

Erstad did do it though

Teixeira............Everything else can wait.

by hauldog on Dec 3, 2008 5:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I meant that kind of as a joke. Figgy has gotten close once, though hasn't he? Around .390 if I remember correctly.

by snowhor on Dec 3, 2008 7:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

yes sir 393 in 2007 I think

Sorry did not catch the sarcasm. Sometimes the bagging on Scioscia for strategy rubs me wrong.

Teixeira............Everything else can wait.

by hauldog on Dec 4, 2008 2:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Not trying to be a nay sayer or anything

, but I want to emphasize a point that has not been brought up all that much. Despite his consistency, I don’t believe it is reasonable to just expect him to hit 40 home runs in Anaheim. Don’t forget that he spent most of his career in Cincinnati, which has a really small, homer friendly ball park. In his brief stint in Arizona, he hit 8 home runs in 144. He averages 554 ABs per 162 games so if you project his Arizona home run rate to a full season, you get (8 / 144) * 554 = 30.7777778. So basically the change in ball park turned a 40 home run guy into a 30 home run guy (er, 31 if you want to be nit picky). Then again I’m pretty sure Arizona has a bigger ball park than the big A, but we do have the marine layer and Anaheim has never been known as a place that is conducive to the long ball. Though he could take advantage of the short wall in RF.

I am in no way saying that I’m fully against signing Dunn and I am not saying that a 30 home run guy as a opposed to a 40 home run guy wouldn’t help this team. I just want to make sure everybody is on the same page. And who knows? Maybe I’m wrong. Mark Teixeira didn’t have any problems going yard in the big A.

In fact, Tex had 13 homers in 193 Halo ABs and he averages 612 ABs per 162 games so that projects to (13 / 193) * 612 = 41.2227979 homers. If you want a direct comparison to Adam Dunn, then you have (13 / 193) * 544 = 36.642487.

Maybe these stats are meaningless. Maybe Dunn just went on a cold streak and Tex went on a hot streak. Tex’s numbers went up a lot after his trade, and Dunn’s went down some. But I still think we should be cautious and not jump the gun on the “Dunn will hit 40 homers” conjecture.

by Chzburger Jones on Dec 4, 2008 12:27 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

He has done ust about as well outside of his home park.

Over the last three years, he’s hit 62 HRs in 801 AB at home and 58 HRs in 799 ABs on the road. This gives me comfort that any drop from a change in home ballparks will be minimal.

by snowhor on Dec 4, 2008 9:24 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

it's a valid point

but considering his history of home/road splits, as snowhor pointed out, it’s not unreasonable to expect 35-40 HRs from Dunn, no matter the environment. and with the added lineup protection with us, that should aid his numbers.

Kotch would've had that.

by howiestheman on Dec 4, 2008 9:39 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs