The Draft-Pick Factor on Teix

by mattwelch on Dec 20, 2008 8:25 AM PST Comment 30 comments

One thing people easily forget about the Teixeira sweepstakes -- even if the Sox offer the same money as us, it will be significantly more expensive for them.

Why? Because they'll have to give us their #1 draft pick, which is the 30th selection in the draft, according to this website that you need to bookmark. We, meanwhile, would have to give up zilcho to sign Teix ... that is, aside from the already-given Casey Kotchman (and perhaps our collective solar plexus).

If Boston signs him, I'll be devastated, but I'll also be licking my chops at what will be a historic 2009 draft. Already, because of Frankie signing with the Mets and the likely Jon Garland signing elsewhere, we will pick 25th (from the Yanks), 33rd (ours), somewhere around 46th (supplemental pick for Frankie), somewhere around 53rd (supplemental for Garland), and somewhere around 83rd (our last pick of the second round). Throw in Boston’s first-rounder, and yet another supplemental, and you're looking at something like this:

25
30 (Boston's)
33
46 (estimated, as are all the rest listed)
47 (Teix supplemental)
54
84

That's 7 picks between slots 21 and 90, ladies and germs. Or, more 21-thru-90 picks than we've had in the last five drafts combined. To give a sense of how valuable those picks might be, here are all 17 we've had within that band during the Scioscia era, long may it wave:

2000 50 Jared Abruzzo

2000 80 Tommy Murphy

2001 33 Jeff Mathis (compensation for Mark Petkovsek)

2001 57 Dallas McPherson

2001 81 Steven Shell (Petkovsek)

2001 89 Jake Woods

2002 53 Kevin Jepsen

2002 84 Kyle Pawelczyk

2003 23 Brandon Wood

2003 60 Anthony Whittington

2003 90 Sean Rodriguez

2005 37 Trevor Bell (Troy Percival)

2005 58 Ryan Mount (Troy Percival)

2005 71 Patrick Phillips

2006 25 Hank Conger (Paul Byrd)

2007 58 Jonathan Bachanov (Adam Kennedy)

2008 74 Tyler Chatwood

Other past Angel selections of note within that 21-90 band include Wally Joyner (for Don Baylor), Carney Lansford, Tim Salmon, Bruce Bochte, and Jarrod Washburn.

To repeat: I hope like hell we sign Teix. Just something to think about in the meantime, and to look forward to next June regardless of what happens.

This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.

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Comments

Oh yeah, I would want another Jeff Mathis

But anyway,good article

Do you know why Chuck Norris has no hair on his balls? Hair doesn't grow on steel.

by vlad IS my man on Dec 20, 2008 8:39 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

You may forget that in 2003...

Mathis looked like a big time future MLB starting catcher. His power dropped off the cliff in 2005 though – from a .499 SLG in AAA (age 22 season) to a .430 SLG in AAA (age 23 season) to a .376 SLG in AAA (age 24 season). But, there was a time where he was one of the top catching prospects in all of MILB.

What happens to these guys is a big time gamble, but there was a time where Mathis was a major asset to the organization. If we can sign 5 or 6 guys like him in 2009 chances are 1 will become very useful major league player and there is a not insignificant chance that one of them could become another John Lackey, Jim Edmonds, or something else…

Jim Scully

Jim Scully Home
Haloville - Land of the Halos

by jimmuscomp on Dec 20, 2008 9:15 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Even if we sign Tex...

…it stil looks like we are going to have a very productive draft.

by Ajax on Dec 20, 2008 8:54 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Great points Matt!

However I was wondering if you know if there was a rule change in the draft order. That’s the first time I EVER remember seeing compensation picks for unsigned 1st rounders actually being in the first round. In the past I would have sworn they were given picks after every team had picked. The Nationals getting the 10th pick for failing to sign a guy seems way too high to me.

by MH252525 on Dec 20, 2008 9:08 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

I'm no expert, but...

… I seem to recall a rule-change regarding unsigned picks beginning (I think) last year. It’s an anti-Boras rule, somehow….

by mattwelch on Dec 20, 2008 9:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, there was

There are no longer such things as type C compensation picks, which were eliminated in the most recent CBA. Teams always lost their first-round picks for signing type A players.

As for overall draft order, it’s in reverse order of overall finish regardless of league. I believe 2008 was the first year this happened (previously the leagues took turns, so the worst team in the NL then the worst in the AL one year, then they flipped leagues the next).

Witty .sig goes here.

by scareduck on Dec 21, 2008 10:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

In 2005 they went with overall record regardless of league

regardless of league. Prior to that it alternated between AL/NL picking 1st.

Willie Mays Aikens is FREeeeeeeee

by Angel Aviator on Dec 22, 2008 7:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Then if Teixeira does not sign with the Angels,

I hope he signs with the Nationals because their picks would be even higher than the Sux’s picks.

Recipient of the 2008 "The Iron Man" award from scottnak of Halos Heaven!

by 44FAN on Dec 20, 2008 10:56 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

their first rounder is protected, and so is the orioles'

wed get their 2nd rounder.

by ihearhowie2.0 on Dec 20, 2008 11:15 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

there is something about the new order and compensation that says if a team in the top 15 picks (sucky Nats) signs an FA, the losing team will not get the pick from the top 15, but not that they lose the 1st rounder altogether. I think BA has a pretty good explanation on it, but basically, if Tex signs with the Nats, we wouldn’t get their under 15 pick, but somehow have it pushed into the latter 15…. something like that…

www.13stoploss.com

by feNOMINAL on Dec 20, 2008 11:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

actually, if you read the very first paragraph above the draft order in the link that Matt suggest we bookmark, it spells it out pretty clearly.

www.13stoploss.com

by feNOMINAL on Dec 20, 2008 11:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think

that the first 15 picks are locked aren’t they?
So The Nats would give us a supplimental and the second round.
It is actually better to get Bostons 1st round and supplimental, but I don’t want him going there so maybe the Nats are a better option

Terrorist plot to blow up Fenway? I'm okay with that

by Sinatrasratpack on Dec 20, 2008 11:04 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

isn't the supplimental order wrong on your link

should the 1st round supplimental picks be ordered based on the FA rankings? Thus, Tex (if he signed elswhere) would be #34 not Ibanez. CC would be 2nd, etc. Frankie being the #5 ranked FA would give the Angels the #40 pick at worst.

It can’t possibly be given out in order of who signs first. Must be done in order of the elias rankings.

Go Angels!

by Four Ts on Dec 20, 2008 11:27 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

From what I gather...

… they are handed out like the draft itself is — in reverse order of the 2008 records of the affected team. So, we’ll be given the very last of the Type A compensation picks (somewhere around 46) and the last of the Type B compensation picks (around 53). That’s how I understand it, anyway.

by mattwelch on Dec 20, 2008 12:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

well that blows

Go Angels!

by Four Ts on Dec 20, 2008 12:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Consider the amount of money spent

as signing bonuses for that many first and second round picks.

by wumbug on Dec 20, 2008 11:55 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

a gamble that could pay off if we get solid offensive production for guys making the minimum

by ihearhowie2.0 on Dec 20, 2008 1:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

probably less

than 200 million.

Lamest poster of all-time.

by ineptituderunsamok on Dec 20, 2008 5:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

hahahah

by bruinbrah on Dec 20, 2008 10:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

We had the best record in baseball

we already have the 30th pick, red sox have the 28th pick i believe.

by Rev Halofan on Dec 20, 2008 1:13 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

According to dude at the link

There are supplemental first-rounders having to do with unsigned high draft choices from previous drafts. Hence, we’re 33rd, even though there’s only 30 teams. Don’t know if it’s true, but he seems to know more about it than I.

by mattwelch on Dec 20, 2008 3:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

SEE Josh Fields. . closer from UGA

Mariners first round pick last year, hasn’t signed yet. . (a boras guy) . . . if he don’t sign, SEA picks at that same position , think it was 21st

by SoCalSoxFan on Dec 21, 2008 12:24 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

You are correct

Willie Mays Aikens is FREeeeeeeee

by Angel Aviator on Dec 22, 2008 7:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll take another

Hank Conger for Paul Byrd.

by Chzburger Jones on Dec 20, 2008 9:06 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I saw mattwelch on "Red Eye" on the Fox Noise Channel on Sunday!

I was flipping channels. I would never make a point of watching that show. But you were funny Matt.

Recipient of the 2008 "The Iron Man" award from scottnak of Halos Heaven!

by 44FAN on Dec 21, 2008 12:09 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Really? I thought I bombed

That is — by far — the most difficult regular media gig I do. Al-Jazeera, Fox News, crazy AM talk radio from Arkansas … pieces of cake compared to YOU HAVE 15 SECONDS TO BE FUNNY.

by mattwelch on Dec 21, 2008 12:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I found this on MLB Trade Rumors. It makes this easier to understand:

Which Free Agents Will Cost A Draft Pick?
By Tim Dierkes [December 20 at 3:47pm CST]
It’s important to remember which Type A free agents were offered arbitration, because those players cost a draft pick if signed by a new team. Ten such free agents remain (the numbers will be explained later):

Mark Teixeira (98.889)
Manny Ramirez (93.438)
Brian Fuentes (86.694)
Orlando Cabrera (86.000)
Orlando Hudson (79.911)
Ben Sheets (79.038)
Oliver Perez (78.694)
Juan Cruz (76.627)
Jason Varitek (76.037)
Derek Lowe (75.430)
The following teams’ first-round picks for 2009 are protected: Nationals, Mariners, Padres, Pirates, Orioles, Giants, Braves, Reds, Tigers, Rockies, Royals, Athletics, Rangers, Indians, and Diamondbacks. These teams will not lose their first-round pick if they sign one of the above free agents.

Four Type A free agents who were offered arbitration have signed with new teams:

C.C. Sabathia (98.110) – Yankees
A.J. Burnett (89.729) – Yankees
Francisco Rodriguez (87.196) – Mets
Raul Ibanez (83.684) – Phillies
The numbers represent each player’s Elias rating. The numbers determined Type A/B status, but can also come into play if a team ends up signing more than one of these 14. Thoughts:

The Yankees’ #26 pick next year goes to the Brewers, unless the Yanks sign Teixeira. In that case the Angels would get it. If the Yanks sign Manny, the Blue Jays get the Yankees’ third-round pick for Burnett – pretty weak. In that case the Dodgers would get the Yanks’ second-round pick.
Unless a new suitor emerges aside from the Yankees and Rangers, the Brewers will not get a first-round pick for Sheets if he leaves.
The Dodgers won’t be signing Cabrera, which would’ve been the best case scenario for the White Sox. The Dodgers’ #17 pick remains up for grabs if they are to sign, for example, Hudson, Sheets, Perez, or Varitek.
Rockies fans would prefer the Cardinals sign Fuentes, giving them the #19 pick. Otherwise it could be the #27 pick from the Brewers or #33 pick from the Angels (unless the Halos also sign Manny or Tex).
If the Mets sign Lowe, the Dodgers are stuck with their second-round pick since K-Rod is ranked higher.

Recipient of the 2008 "The Iron Man" award from scottnak of Halos Heaven!

by 44FAN on Dec 21, 2008 12:54 AM PST reply actions 0 recs