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Where We Stand: Money, and the Angels Future

This FanPost was inspired by Kristie_Joe and Marshgr.

Alright, I am going to try and tackle our payroll situation and future considerations. I'm a bit in-over-my-head here, but I can give it a go. I'm rounding here, give me a break.

Our Current Payroll:

1) 2008 starting 25 payroll = 118mil (minus Kotch)

2) Minuses (mil) = Frankie (10), GA (14?), White Sox Pitcher guy (12) = 36mil

3) Plusses (contract increments) (mil) = Tori (1.5), Vlad (.5), Escy (.5), GMJ (1), Lackey (2) Shields (0.75), Speier (.5), Morales (0.1), plus Oliver increase (1mil) = 9mil

4) Plusses (arbitration eligible) guess (mil) = Nap, Santana, Fig, Iz, Q = 10  mil

5) Other 25 man (typical 50K or so raise) (mil) = Mathis, Aybar, Kendrick et al = 1 mil

So what I have here is a payroll so far for 2009  = about 100mil (right now)

Our Max payroll is 120 mil (I would guess this is as high or higher compared to Yankee and Red Sox payroll compared to what they take in. Don't expect it to be higher). Tex would probably have broken this barrier.  Obviously Moreno and Team were ready to go for it despite the cost (and future cost).

Future Cost, 2010: The economy isn't going to get much better. Let's say are budget is still 100mil and we don't sign anyone else this year. The add on for next year would be:

Re-sign Lackey (raise 10 mil/yr min) and Vlad (raise 3mil/yr min) = 13 mil

Add on 10 mil arbitration eligible and a couple mil increments = 12 mil

That puts us at 125mil for 2010

Tex was a luxury that was worth (maybe) the gamble because of  his exceptional ability. He would have cost us in the future. Who else out there is worth this gamble?

Fuentes? add 10 mil. Lowe? add 10 mil. Peavy trade? add 10 mil.

With Peavy we go over budget, but like Tex, he is  (maybe) worth it.

Let's say I'm 5/10 mil high or so.  Let's not split hairs.

Like I've said before, it ain't easy having a contending team year after year. Cudos to Moreno and Co. Keep it real.

This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.

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Thanks, and I would expect us to end up closer to $120 mil for 2009.

There are a lot of teams right now desperate to shed payroll and gain young talent, from the Pads on up. Pitchers and catchers don’t report for a l-o-o-o-ng time.

by mattwelch on Dec 26, 2008 4:20 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I like it

When I see “shedpayroll,” " gain young talent," “Pads,” and “Pitcher” in the same paragraph. So let’s say Arte decides to end up at 120mil. How much CASH are we allowed to offer to a team in a trade? For instance, could we sweeten the pot to get a deal done with say 5-10 mil cash? Leaving 10-15 plus or so to sign someone else.

Angel Pitching, Angel Defense - get past that.

by vladtheimpaler on Dec 26, 2008 6:46 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

believe that's against MLB rules

You can, however, offer to pay the salary of player you trade. Which, if we do a deal w/ San Diego, might come into play with Chone Figgins.

by mattwelch on Dec 26, 2008 10:38 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

This is why

I don’t think the Angels should sign Fuentes. They are going to have to give some big contracts to keep the talent they already have. Lackey, Saunders and Santana are all good investments and I don’t want the Angels unable to sign them because they have a guy throwing 55 innings a year making 10 million.

by MH252525 on Dec 26, 2008 8:44 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I'm OK

With a two-year deal. It’s DEFINITELY not a guarantee that Vlad or Lackey stay with us, unfortunately. And even if they do, Fuentes is gone after ’10 anyways.

by Sethy on Dec 26, 2008 9:00 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

i dont mind fuentes if his price tag dropped to 8 mil or so a year

simply because it makes one of our excess relievers available for trade

by ihearhowie2.0 on Dec 26, 2008 11:51 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

yup

namely Jepsen.
if he really wants to come here, i’d take him on a 2/$17MM deal with an option

Kotch would've had that.

by howiestheman on Dec 26, 2008 12:22 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Skip Fuentes and keep a draft pick.

Right now, we have 3 draft picks in the first round and will have 3 in the supplemental after Garland signs with someone. We should only be willing to lose a draft pick to sign an elite player, like Bill Stoneman did with GMJ.

by snowhor on Dec 26, 2008 10:04 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Agree

I rather give someone like Jepsen another chance to see what he can do or get another reliever that is either younger or won’t cost us the higher draft pick.

by stolenbases on Dec 28, 2008 9:27 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

some points

1) you missed the $5M or so coming off the books for Tex’ salary
2) The name is “John Garland” — not “White Sox pitcher guy”
3) We will lose $6-9M or so from Figgy being gone as a FA sfter next season
4) $9.5M comes off the books after next season for Escobar.
5) i don’t think Vlad will see his salary increase over his current $15M for next year. He won’t get higher than that anywhere considering his health and that he’ll basically be a Full-time DH.
6) Also note that Shields/Speier both come off the book in 2 years ($10M+).

Go Angels!

by Four Ts on Dec 26, 2008 9:05 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I disagree with you on Vlad

He will have another great offensive year and be in RF most of the time and playing a decent defense. And we can’t afford to lose a player of his caliber then get into a bidding war over his replacement who we might not get. We should make him a decent/respectful offer now. Make him an offer he will take.

3yr 54mil with a club option for a 4th year. Put’s him in the same pay range as Hunter. We can’t afford to lose him.

While I’m at it we do the same for Lackey because, once again, we can’t afford to lose that caliber of player and expect to get someone of equal value in return.

5yr 90mil with a club option for a 6th year. If we get Peavy in a trade, I’d have to rethink it. But ifs don’t often happen.

Angel Pitching, Angel Defense - get past that.

by vladtheimpaler on Dec 26, 2008 5:56 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

we agree to disagree with vlad then

because ain’t no way a team gives him close to $20M per year. Look at what Big papi got as a DH 2 years ago compared to what non-DH guys got. Teams will not pay a guy who is a DH only (which vlad will be for the most part of his post 2009 playing years) and who has knew/injury issues and is on the wrong side of his 30’s. He may even be older than we think he is too.

I would bet the house on it. He’ll be much closer to $15M than $20M.

Go Angels!

by Four Ts on Dec 26, 2008 7:26 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Vlad at 15 mil

And I will bet the house that won’t happen.

Get him now. I’ll say it again, 3yr 54mil with a club option for a 4th year. Put’s him in the same pay range as Hunter. We can’t afford to lose him.

Angel Pitching, Angel Defense - get past that.

by vladtheimpaler on Dec 26, 2008 8:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

 You have my vote..Besides,when you over pay players and give them your biggest contract,your BEST player may feel he deserves a piece of that 2.. I think Angel fans really don’t appreciate what Guerrero has done these past 5 years,he has been the best player and our most important offensive player.. I see the fact that he hasn’t signed yet as an indication it may not get done.. He will be an offensive force for at least 5 years (33 yrs old for 09) and I think is worth 15-18 mill a year.. I can understand some Angel fans thinking he doesnt deserve a pay raise, but his numbers the past 5 years show otherwise…

by raven191 on Dec 27, 2008 6:21 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Vlad

we all have to wait. he got the surgery on his knee that he should have gotten couple of yrs ago. when spring training comes around we’ll see how the knee looks. if he’s good then he’s got probably 3-4 good yrs left in him. he’ll get 1 last good contract if that knee is good from us or another team. Big Papi never played any good D in the first place.

by HALO_86 on Dec 27, 2008 3:01 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Vladdy is staying and Lackey probably isn't

Unless Vlad really falls apart or the Angels become super cheap, I can’t imagine the Angels letting their face of the franchise leave. He isn’t the Vladdy of 2004-2006, but he is still one hell of a hitter as most true Angels’ fans know. He also seems comfortable in Southern CA and is likely to take a home team discount to stay with the Angels.

Lackey on the other hand won’t take a home team discount and is looking for his first and likely only big payday on the open market which means his chances of staying with the Angels are slim to none. I brought this up earlier, but the Angels might want to consider putting his name out on the trading market and seeing what is available in terms of prospects. I bet a team like the Mets would be willing to listen though I am not sure if they have any good prospects available.

It sucks to see home grown and long time Halos go, but without Lackey I feel the rotation will still be solid with Santana taking Lackey’s mantle as the ace.

by stolenbases on Dec 28, 2008 9:54 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

A point

The name is “Jon Garland”—-not “John Garland”

by Chzburger Jones on Dec 27, 2008 3:42 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The only current commitments for 2010 are:

- Torii Hunter ($18M)
- Gary Matthews Jr. ($11M)
- Scot Shields ($5.35M)
- Justin Speier ($5.25M)
- Juan Rivera ($4.25M)
- Kendry Morales ($0.7M)

Technically, no one else is owed any money, though it’s hard to imagine guys like Santana and Weaver not being tendered a contract. But, for the sake of argument, that’s $44.55 million. The Angels would still have to fill 19 roster spots, so with a league minimum salary of $400,000 in 2010, they’ll have to pay no less than $52.15 million to field a major-league baseball team.

Depending on Arte’s budget, he has between $50 and $70 million to work with for 2010. Even if he signs $20 million of that away to free agents this off-season, that’s still $30 to $50 million. Most of that will probably go to paying the kids as they become arbitration-eligible: Santana, Weaver, Kendrick, Aybar, Napoli, etc., unless any of those guys are traded. If they continue to progress, Santana and Weaver in particular should be up for huge arbitration raises.

The Angels could have afforded Teixeira in 2009, but they might have been worried about 2010. He might have forced them to dump the salary of a very good player like Santana. I blame the centerfield fiasco: Arte’s paying $29 million to centerfielders in 2010 (Hunter and Matthews) where even a centerfield of, say, Carlos Beltran and a replacement player would have cost under $19 million. The Angels just don’t have the revenue to completely paper over the Matthews mistake.

Signing bonuses for first-round picks also keep getting more expensive, and with as many as six first-round picks coming next June and possibly six more in 2010 if Lackey, Figgins, and Guerrero leave (though it’s unlikely they wouldn’t sign other Type A’s to compensate), I would expect more payroll to be shunted away from the team on the field.

by Suboptimal on Dec 26, 2008 11:57 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I kind of roundballed 2010 assuming we pick up everyone and offer all arbitration

You came at it from a different and interesting perspective. Still, if we keep everyone, including Figgins (able to replace a slumping newbie or an injured player in a single bound), the 2010 budget will be close to what I said and if we sign let’s say a Fuentes and Dunn, we are at a point where it will be very difficult to re-sign Lackey and Vlad at a price that will not tempt them to go free agent.

Angel Pitching, Angel Defense - get past that.

by vladtheimpaler on Dec 26, 2008 6:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You're right

Signing Fuentes and Dunn right now would probably push John Lackey out the door in 2010, unless he’s willing to take a discount or creatively structure his contract. But if he pitches as well next year as he did in 2007-2008, he’ll easily be the cream of the 2010 free agent class (unless Rich Harden stays healthy…wait, I didn’t just say that, did I?). He could be in for a big payday if the Yankees realize they need more pitching. I was thinking the Angels might be worried about the money Ervin Santana will have coming to him if he keeps it up, but since he’s younger than Lackey, they’d probably choose to keep him over John.

by Suboptimal on Dec 27, 2008 12:21 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Lackey

Unfortunately I see Lackey leaving the Angels after 2009 unless they either offer him a crazy contract or at least get to the ALCS and have a good offense. Lackey wants to win another WS ring soon since he isn’t getting any younger. Even if the Angels win, the 3 headed monster of the Yankees, Boston, and Mets will come calling and drive Lackey into a contract that the Angels won’t be able to afford.

by stolenbases on Dec 28, 2008 9:38 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Until we learn to stop knee-jerk spending

we will always be limited when the right opportunity comes along. Face it – we have $140mm invested in center fielders – duh?
While I can appreciate the fact that Arte stuck it to Boras, we have sat around and made second tier financial moves for 3 years while passing on all the marquis names, and then maybe we get one good year out of them, Steve Finley notwithstanding.
The worst part is that whether it is Soth’s decision or Arte’s, we will see GMJ get significant playing time this year because we can’t stand to see $11mm ride the pine. Sad, but true.
So, except for Hunter, we pretty much have a below average outfield with questionable ability to reach balls and stop singles from turning into doubles, and gappers into triples – that is, assuming when the throw comes in, it is somewhere in the general vicinity of the cutoff man / infielder….
I think there needs to be more of a longer term strategy with regards to the spending. It seems we are always playing catch-up instead of leading the way.

by SocalAngelFaninOC on Dec 27, 2008 1:02 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Kind of makes you want to give a go this year with what we got

And bank the rest for the future.

Angel Pitching, Angel Defense - get past that.

by vladtheimpaler on Dec 27, 2008 5:10 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Agree for the most part

I know people disagree with me on this, but I still think Ben Sheets is worth looking into and rolling the dice on since teams like Boston, NYM, and even the Yankees have not showed much interest in him which means he shouldn’t break the bank. You just have to ask if the risk of giving up a draft pick for a pitcher with an injury history that so happens to have the talent to be the ace or at the very least a #2 pitcher of a staff is worth it. I think the gamble is worth it for the right contract which means we should seriously consider signing him since the right contract is likely going to be there.

by stolenbases on Dec 28, 2008 10:06 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Sheets is intriguing

Like Bradley. I wouldn’t cry if we got either one at a decent price. Their numbers when healthy are top notch. But, of course, your taking a chance and not a lot of people are on that bandwagon.

Angel Pitching, Angel Defense - get past that.

by vladtheimpaler on Dec 29, 2008 12:50 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Sheets

avoid him unless he comes a rock bottom price tag. why get someone that can’t stay healthy? were not a team thats desperate for pitching. getting any good pitcher right now is a luxury that would be nice but not with someone with health issues. right now we have Escobar that fits that bill. we have no idea whats going to happen with him so i wouldn’t want to spend more money on a guy who has a good chance of getting hurt.

The Yanks are going to regret signing AJ with his history of arm issues.

by HALO_86 on Dec 29, 2008 10:34 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It will be interesting to see how the market develops for Sheets

It seems that so far the Rangers are interested in him though I am not sure if they will overpay anymore for pitching. If he comes cheap then gamble and sign him since Lackey will likely be gone after 2009 and Jared Weaver has Bora$$

by stolenbases on Dec 29, 2008 6:48 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Heck, why not?

It’s not like we have an absolute lock for our 5th starting spot right now.

visiting halos fan

by 442 on Dec 29, 2008 8:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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