So I thought I’d do a straightforward analysis of the Halo’s roster-building decisions by looking at Baseball Prospectus’ “Wins Above Replacement Player” and commonly projected salaries because (1) I’m a little surprised I haven’t seen anyone do it in the broader media yet, and (2) I find the order that spreadsheets impose on the world deeply comforting.  I really don’t know enough about the intricacies of VORP and/or WARP to have much faith in their ability to project reality more accurately than other measures - every time I try to read the full explanation, I feel a pressing need to sleep - but I do think they’re an interesting concept, and provide yet another tool with which to tinker with 2009 hypotheticals. 

Below is the list of players in order of wins that they hypothetically add to the 2009 Angels. For position players,I used a conservative projection of Gary Matthews Jr’s and Maicer Izturis offensive output as the “Replacement Level” floor. I do not account for defense, because really, we’re looking for corner outfielders and/or first basemen who mash. For pitchers, I used a conservative projection of Nick Adenhart’s and Dustin Moseley’s combined output as the replacement level floor, assuming that Jon Garland’s slot is the only one to be replaced. 

Mark Teixeira - 6.4 wins above Izzy-GMJ (without incorporating defense)

CC Sabathia - 4.7 wins above Aden-Mose

Jake Peavy - 4.7 wins above Aden-Mose

Adam Dunn - 4.3 wins above Izzy-GMJ

Milton Bradley - 3.3 wins above Izzy-GMJ

Manny Ramirez - 3.3 wins above Izzy-GMJ

Nick Johnson - 2.9 wins above Izzy-GMJ

Ben Sheets - 2.7 wins above Aden-Mose

Randy Johnson - 1.8 wins above Aden-Mose

Juan Rivera - 1.4 wins above Izzy-GMJ

Jon Garland - 1.1 wins above Aden-Mose

Garrett Anderson - .9 wins above Izzy-GMJ (and I'm being optimistic with Anderson)

Mark Teixeira clearly leads the board here. Milton Bradley could be much better than the projection, since it assumes regression and only puts him down for 400 at bats.  Manny Ramirez isn’t as high as I would have thought, but again, this is assuming he comes down quite a bit from his ’08 high.  I couldn’t help myself from throwing in Nick Johnson’s name - he could be a terrific "buy-low" opportunity.

On the pitching side, C.C. Sabathia edges Jake Peavy slightly.  HOWEVER, if Peavy replaces Jered Weaver (who is, I think, better than we generally give him credit for), and the fifth starter job remains open, those wins that Peavy adds to the team falls way down to 2.6. The WARP projection anticipates that neither Ben Sheets nor Randy Johnson will pitch a full season, so their wins added come over and above a half season of Adenhart / Moseley.   

Now let's introduce the money, and see who provides the most wins for the buck. 

Peavy - $1.88 mil. / Win (assuming he replaces Aden/Mose and not Weaver)

N. Johnson - $1.90 mil. / Win (assuming 500 at bats - I know, a huge if...)

Dunn - $3.28 mil. / Win, assuming a $14 mil salary.

Teixeira - $3.42 mil. / Win, assuming a $22 mil salary

Bradley - $3.46 mil. / Win, assuming a $12 mil salary

Peavy - $3.85 mil. / Win, assuming he replaces Weaver (and we’d still have to fill in the final slot).

Rivera - $4.29 mil. / Win, assuming a $4 mil salary

R. Johnson - $4.44 mil. / Win, assuming an $8 mil salary 

Sabathia - $4.79 mil. / Win, assuming a $23 mil salary

Sheets - $5.19 mil. / Win, assuming a $5.19 mil salary

Ramirez - $6.82 mil. / Win, assuming a $20 mil salary

Garland - $9.09 mil. / Win, assuming a $10 min salary

Anderson - $12.41 mil. / Win, assuming a $6 mil salary

Again, this is simply an analysis of what BP’s WARP and projected salaries tells us.  I know the conclusions that jump out at me - spend $20+ mil / year on Tex for however long it takes and  put together a package for Peavy that does not include Weaver - but I’m curious about what other combinations you see. I think some of the projections of how much money we have available are too optimistic because they don’t include the raises we owe Matthews, Hunter, Speier, Escobar, Shields, Figgins, Izturis, etc.  By my count, we will probably have a little less than $30 mil for next year, unless we expand payroll.

Cheers!