Catcher ERA
by Sam Miller OCR on Dec 31, 2008 8:37 AM PST
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PrintSo I was writing more Whicker bait a post about catcher ERA with the presumption that the difference between Napoli's CERA (4.45) and Mathis' (3.66) would be completely explained by the different pitchers they caught. Mathis was Santana's catcher, Napoli caught most of Garland and all of Adenhart, etc. But what I found actually surprised me.
Yes, Napoli caught by far the lesser half of the Angels' staff. His expected CERA should have been something like 4.50, while Mathis' should have been something like 4.00. But even when lining up their CERA for each individual pitcher, Mathis was better than Napoli for everybody but Saunders, and even that was close.
Now, I assume this is a fluke. The sample sizes are small, CERA is a pretty lame stat to begin with, etc. But I mostly listen to games on the radio, so I wanted to see whether any of you who watched games in person or on TV had any explanation for this besides just calling it a fluke. Is it possible that Mathis actually is much better at calling games? If it is possible, does this matter at all, or is the difference in offense far more important?
Here's the chart:
| Pitcher | ERA | Napoli ERA | Mathis ERA | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weaver | 4.33 | 5.24 | 3.77 | Mathis |
| Garland | 4.90 | 4.99 | 4.7 | Mathis |
| Santana | 3.49 | 4.44 | 3.18 | Mathis |
| Moseley | 6.79 | 7.09 | 5.59 | Mathis |
| Saunders | 3.41 | 3.29 | 3.52 | Napoli |
| Adenhart | 9.00 | 9.00 | N/A | N/A |
| Lackey | 3.75 | 3.83 | 3.61 | Mathis |
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A couple thoughts...
1. Doesnt Soc “call the game?” I only mention this because if Soc calls the game from the dugout then I dont really know what influence Nap or Mathis would have on how well a pitcher throws other than the advice given on the obligatory walk to the mound or placing a pitch.
2. I would assume that Nap would get the call over Mathis against teams who have a strong offense. This is b/c Nap has the better bat and Soc knows we are going to need all the run support we can get regardless of who is out there. Thus, if Nap catches against teams with big bats then naturally, the pitchers he is catching are most likely going to give up more runs that usual and Naps CERA goes up.
3. CERA is just a shitty stat.
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Dec 31, 2008 9:02 AM PST reply actions
Soc only calls running game defense
Pitch selection is all catcher/pitcher
That's funny you bring that up.
There have been SEVERAL times while at games or watching on TV where I noticed Mathis looking to the dugout before EVERY pitch. During the Fox saturday broadcasts, they’d keep showing mathis looking to Soth, then cut to Soth doing his signs (Chin, ear, forehead, nose…). That’d go on for an entire inning.
IMO, I’ve watched plenty of them both closely because I was at first very negative on Napoli. Two years ago, before they fixed his starting position of his hands, his swing was crazy long and completely robbed him of the ability to adjust, and his defense didn’t justify his starts.
Aesthetically, Mathis is a more athletic catcher. He moves side to side better, and as a result keeps the ball in front of him better, but I think Napoli’s bat potential is far higher than Mathis’ and we need everything we can get at this point.
by MidwayCityLivestock on Dec 31, 2008 9:54 AM PST up reply actions
let's just fuse
Napoli’s offensive ability with Mathis’ game-calling and create Jeff Napoli, uber catcher.
by Chzburger Jones on Dec 31, 2008 9:59 AM PST reply actions
The D still sucks. Jeff Napoli can't thow people out
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
thanks for the nods, Sam
it’s an interesting debate.. one that will (i’m sure) continue into next season
Kotch would've had that.
Catcher ERA is meaningless. There's no correlation from one year to the next.
Nor is there any correlation from the same pitcher/catcher combination over several years.
I’m not saying that the catcher’s playcalling has no effect on the pitcher, only that it’s not statistically significant. The catcher isn’t the guy throwing the ball, guys.
The Hunt for a Red October ...and please keep telling Clutch to chill!
But
he’s the guy who tells K-Rod to throw a hanging change up to J.D. Drew.
by Chzburger Jones on Dec 31, 2008 1:43 PM PST up reply actions
And K-rod is the one who can shake it off the sign...
or keep that change low.
Neither of which he did.
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Dec 31, 2008 4:19 PM PST up reply actions
Just because Mathis calls for a pitch...
…doesn’t mean the pitcher delivered it, as requested.
A curveball ain’t much if the pitcher doesn’t snap it off and it hangs for easy pickin’s. Likewise with the change. A fastball in the wrong location isn’t the pitch the catcher requested, even if he called for a fastball.
The catcher can request a pitch, based upon the guessing game of catcher vs. hitter. After he makes the request, it is up to the pitcher to execute that request. If the pitcher doesn’t execute properly (or at all), then the ball will gain velocity in the opposite direction.
by George Kaplan on Dec 31, 2008 11:08 PM PST up reply actions
In case you didn't notice,
that was supposed to be a joke.
by Chzburger Jones on Dec 31, 2008 11:47 PM PST up reply actions
No, Mr Jones
I didn’t see the joke. My bad, my apology.
by George Kaplan on Jan 1, 2009 10:51 AM PST up reply actions
Regardless
Mathis should be the backup, a job he will be destined to fill for the rest of his career. Nipples is the starter, with Hammerin’ Hank coming down the pipe.
Mathis’ defensive woes last year were the last straw for me. Yes, yes, the whole streak of games with no caught stealing was partly the blame of the pitchers, but come on.
It's Napoli
I think the Baseball Prospectus guys exploded CERA in their book a few years ago. There is nothing to suggest a catcher can make pitchers better consistently from one year to the next. Skills like “calling a good game,” and “managing a pitching staff” are not necessarily garbage, but if they do exist, no one has developed a way to measure them yet. Overlooking a good-hitting catcher because “he’s not a good receiver” is bound to be a mistake (unless it’s A.J. Pierzynski; word is most pitchers absolutely hate throwing to him).
Throwing runners out is the only existing stat that does, and neither Angel catcher was particularly good at that last year (both below average). Napoli was worse (11-for-52) than Mathis (20-for-57), but those samples are so small that if, say, three more calls had gone Napoli’s way, and two less had gone for Mathis, they’d have ended up the same. That’s not a significant margin. However, Mathis did commit the most errors of any catcher in MLB: 13 in 793 1/3 innings, two more than Russell Martin committed with almost 450 more innings. Oh yes, Mathis also failed to bat his weight.
The point is, the defensive comparisons are for the most part moot, but the offensive numbers say that Napoli deserves to start, and Mathis deserves to have his ass busted back to Salt Lake. It’s someone else’s turn to hit infield flies and play catch with Torii in center field.
by Suboptimal on Jan 1, 2009 1:20 AM PST reply actions 2 recs
Mathis
Maybe it’s just me, but sometimes I feel like Math works Blue a bit better than Naps does.
Whatever that means.
If GA wasn't so Lazy, I'd have something clever here.
Yes, but
CERA probably fluctuates year to year (as some have mentioned) and Napoli beats Mathis senseless with the bat anyway so that should more than make up the deficit, if it exists.
visiting halos fan
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