One of the most worthless pitching statistics in baseball for projecting future performance. But nice effort.

...about Weaver, he didn't have his usual velocity that year. He couldn't put away hitters like he did in the past because he was injured and just didn't have his stuff. He didn't feel right the whole year. He couldn't do things he did before.

He came this season prepared. He's now 100% healthy, his velocity is back in the 92-94 mph range and he is putting away hitters like he did in the past.

How much do you want to bet that his ERA will be in the 3's this year?

I found this article yesterday and thought about posting about it myself............however, I didn't.

I usually find comfort reading Larry Stone's articles for knowledge and general information about the Mariners and baseball in general. Somehow, this one ticked me off.

A great post by Hardball Times writer Matthey Carruth, who occasionally posts on Lookout Landing, is "Identifying Candidates for Regression".

Regression isn't just the HR, K, and BB rates that FIP takes on, and Jered Weaver had sort of a perfect storm of good luck in his first year, particularly in LOB%, which no pitcher ever has shown an ability to consistently outperform (unlike BABIP). There's a bit on Weaver:

"PAST EXAMPLES
Jered Weaver, 2006.
-Weaver is perhaps the prototypical example. In 2006, Weaver struck out 23% more batters than you'd expect given his percentage of missed bats, he left 22% more men on base than normal, allowed a hit on 20% fewer balls in play than the league and had 21% fewer flyballs turn into home runs than you'd expect. Jered Weaver appeared on four the measurements and each one portended Weaver's 2007 to be worse than his 2006. So what happened? In 2007, Weaver saw his missed bat percentage drop to 7.83%, below league average (7.95%) and his K rate fell to minimally above league average (15.57%) to 15.97%. His BABIP went from .237 to .313. He went from stranding 86.2% of baserunners to 73.6%. His HR/FB% actually dropped, the only statistic he appears on for 2007, but again, one that suggests further regression. In 2006, Jered Weaver posted a 2.56 ERA coupled with a 3.99 FIP. In 2007, Weaver's ERA skyrocketed to 3.91 while his FIP remained relatively stable at 4.14."

There's more to a strikeout than just "missed bats". Striking out someone looking is also a strikeout. Not every pitcher will have the same ability to miss bats like a Kazmir, just like not every pitcher will have the same ability to freeze hitters and get called third strikes like a Jered Weaver. Besides, Weaver throws strikes. You usually see a lot more swing and misses with pitchers who are erratic and can't find the strike zone. Pitchers that throw strikes won't generate as many swing and misses because players are more prone to swinging strikes out of the strike zone, and some pitchers save their best stuff for the final strike. Not every pitcher pitches the same. Every pitcher has their own way of pitching and getting results...

Matthew is very good at distorting this stuff. He does his very best to discount the Angels every chance he gets, and it's not because he necessarily believes what he is saying is true. I'm willing to bet that he doesn't believe half the stuff he says. He's an M's fan. He is trying to remain optimistic for the season. I don't know what good will it do once the actual season starts, and the Angels just do what they have been doing since 2004, but whatever floats his boat.

I'm willing to make a bet with any M's fan that Weaver will have a much better year than last year. I'm going to go as far as saying that his 2008 season will be comparable to his 2006 in many ways. Maybe not quite as good, but he'll have a great season. His velocity is back, he's 100% healthy, he's putting away hitters like he did before, he knows how to minimize the damage and avoid big innings, he doesn't get rattled and he is simply a good pitcher. He knows how to pitch. Nothing more to it. He couldn't do the stuff he used to do in 2007 because he had arm problems. He didn't have his usual stuff and velocity.

You also got to know how to put hitters away. Some pitchers have good stuff but don't know how to set hitters up and put them away. You have to learn when to throw certain pitches in different counts. If you let a hitter sit on your fastball, odds are you'll get crushed. If you let a hitter know what pitch is coming and you don't do anything to change speeds, change pitches, etc, odds are you'll get crushed and won't survive in the majors. Weaver mixes up his pitches, keeps hitters guessing, and he goes for the K when he needs one. Weaver also throws strikes. Weaver pitches like a veteran out there. He can get the strikeout when he needs one. You can't possibly sit here and say you know how Weaver pitches by just looking at his swinging strike % and assume things about him that way. That's the one thing some of these geeks fail to realize. These are actual people, not numbers. You can't seriously sit here and say that every pitcher has the same ability to set hitters up as everyone else, the ability to put hitters away, the ability to change speeds, mix up pitches and keep hitters guessing, that every pitcher pitches the same way, etc. Will every pitcher be mentally fit to pitch in pressure situations? Does every pitcher know how to avoid big innings by trying to minimize the damage? I can go on forever. I can go on forever. Is every pitcher built the exact same way to do these things? The answer is no.

I hope some of you stat geeks will start looking at these players as human beings and realize that they're not some statistic for your own amusement.