Jon Garland - master of the strikeout
So far this year in 24 1/3 innings of work over 4 starts, Jon Garland has managed to strike out 3 batters. Yes, 3. I'm not an expert on matters statistical or historical, but I would hazard a guess that that's on the low side of what you might expect from a starting pitcher.
If he pitches 200 innings this year, he's on target for 25 Ks (if you round him up), which I suspect might be an all-time low (does anyone know how to check this?).
So my question is simple:
1. How many strikeouts will Garland deliver in 2008?
This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan and may or may not be a reflection of human evolution, divine enlightenment or nine cans into a 12-pack.
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That of which you speak is rare
but possible. I ran two lists, one for the modern (>= 1900) era and another for the Retrosheet (>=1956) era, limited to pitchers who threw 100 or more innings and ordered by ascending K/9. Modern era first:
+-----------+----------+--------+------+-------+------+------+ | nameFirst | nameLast | yearID | ERA | IP | SO | k/9 | +-----------+----------+--------+------+-------+------+------+ | Slim | Sallee | 1919 | 2.06 | 227.7 | 24 | 0.95 | | Ernie | Wingard | 1924 | 3.51 | 218.0 | 23 | 0.95 | | Ike | Butler | 1902 | 5.34 | 116.3 | 13 | 1.01 | | Slim | Sallee | 1920 | 3.34 | 116.0 | 13 | 1.01 | | Jack | Russell | 1928 | 3.84 | 201.3 | 27 | 1.21 | | Ernie | Wingard | 1925 | 5.52 | 145.0 | 20 | 1.24 | | Win | Mercer | 1902 | 3.04 | 281.7 | 40 | 1.28 | | Sam | Leever | 1908 | 2.10 | 192.7 | 28 | 1.31 | | Jim | Bagby | 1946 | 3.71 | 106.7 | 16 | 1.35 | | Jack | Russell | 1930 | 5.45 | 229.7 | 35 | 1.37 | +-----------+----------+--------+------+-------+------+------+
There’s a pretty clear bias toward the early part of the century (hint: Jackie Robinson and desegregation had yet to hit baseball).
Here’s the Retrosheet era:
+-----------+-------------+--------+------+-------+------+------+ | nameFirst | nameLast | yearID | ERA | IP | SO | k/9 | +-----------+-------------+--------+------+-------+------+------+ | Glenn | Abbott | 1979 | 5.17 | 116.7 | 25 | 1.93 | | Kirk | Rueter | 2005 | 5.95 | 107.3 | 25 | 2.10 | | Tom | House | 1978 | 4.66 | 116.0 | 29 | 2.25 | | Ricky | Horton | 1988 | 4.86 | 109.3 | 28 | 2.30 | | Glenn | Abbott | 1981 | 3.94 | 130.3 | 35 | 2.42 | | Dave | Rozema | 1978 | 3.14 | 209.3 | 57 | 2.45 | | Bob | Porterfield | 1957 | 4.05 | 102.3 | 28 | 2.46 | | Jim | Palmer | 1981 | 3.75 | 127.3 | 35 | 2.47 | | Ken | Holtzman | 1976 | 4.17 | 149.0 | 41 | 2.48 | | John | Doherty | 1994 | 6.48 | 101.3 | 28 | 2.49 | +-----------+-------------+--------+------+-------+------+------+
Obviously, some of these guys (Kirk Rueter, Jim Palmer especially) were at or near the end of their careers, living on guile and the defense behind them. But yeah, it’s pretty unusual to see strikeout rates this low. It’s often a sign that a pitcher is about to collapse (witness Jerrod Washburn’s flirting with a 4.00 K/9 just before the Angels let him go).
Witty .sig goes here.
by scareduck on Apr 18, 2008 9:21 AM PDT 0 recs
For 200+ innings
Since you asked for 200+ innings—in the modern era:
+-----------+----------+--------+------+-------+------+------+ | nameFirst | nameLast | yearID | ERA | IP | SO | k/9 | +-----------+----------+--------+------+-------+------+------+ | Slim | Sallee | 1919 | 2.06 | 227.7 | 24 | 0.95 | | Ernie | Wingard | 1924 | 3.51 | 218.0 | 23 | 0.95 | | Jack | Russell | 1928 | 3.84 | 201.3 | 27 | 1.21 | | Win | Mercer | 1902 | 3.04 | 281.7 | 40 | 1.28 | | Jack | Russell | 1930 | 5.45 | 229.7 | 35 | 1.37 | | Watty | Clark | 1935 | 3.30 | 207.0 | 35 | 1.52 | | Ted | Lyons | 1925 | 3.26 | 262.7 | 45 | 1.54 | | Urban | Shocker | 1927 | 2.84 | 200.0 | 35 | 1.57 | | Ray | Starr | 1943 | 3.64 | 217.3 | 42 | 1.74 | | Bill | Hubbell | 1921 | 4.33 | 220.3 | 43 | 1.76 | +-----------+----------+--------+------+-------+------+------+
... and in the Retrosheet era:
+-----------+----------+--------+------+-------+------+------+ | nameFirst | nameLast | yearID | ERA | IP | SO | k/9 | +-----------+----------+--------+------+-------+------+------+ | Dave | Rozema | 1978 | 3.14 | 209.3 | 57 | 2.45 | | Fernando | Arroyo | 1977 | 4.17 | 209.3 | 60 | 2.58 | | Jim | Barr | 1976 | 2.89 | 252.3 | 75 | 2.68 | | Johnny | Kucks | 1956 | 3.85 | 224.3 | 67 | 2.69 | | Dave | Roberts | 1976 | 4.00 | 252.0 | 79 | 2.82 | | Mike | Caldwell | 1980 | 4.03 | 225.3 | 74 | 2.96 | | Rick | Langford | 1982 | 4.21 | 237.3 | 79 | 3.00 | | Bob | Friend | 1965 | 3.24 | 222.0 | 74 | 3.00 | | Bill | Lee | 1974 | 3.51 | 282.3 | 95 | 3.03 | | Jim | Barr | 1974 | 2.74 | 239.7 | 84 | 3.15 | +-----------+----------+--------+------+-------+------+------+
Witty .sig goes here.
by scareduck on Apr 18, 2008 9:24 AM PDT 0 recs
Superb work Mr Duck
So, to answer the initial question as to whether or not it’s an all-time low (if he keeps it up), the answer is no. In the modern era though, it’s rarer than hens teeth.
200 IP and
I see red people
by The Limey on
Apr 18, 2008 12:32 PM PDT
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if he wins games
then who cares?
let the defense work. you don’t need to K every batter to be good.
he looked pretty good last night…
Bring up Wood!!!
by howiestheman on Apr 18, 2008 9:31 AM PDT 0 recs
See Jarrod Washburn
for why you care. His low strikeout rate predicted a collapse, as he has with the Mariners subsequently.
Witty .sig goes here.
by scareduck on
Apr 18, 2008 9:32 AM PDT
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Washburn
had one good year (2002). he had been terrible before that, and has been even worse ever since.
that’s not really a good comparison.
Garland can actually pitch.
Bring up Wood!!!
by howiestheman on
Apr 18, 2008 10:14 AM PDT
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No, it IS a good comparison
According to B-Ref, Washburn is Garland’s sixth most similar pitcher. The list also includes Ramon Ortiz and Paul Byrd, the latter being a crafty righty; Bobby Jones is his most similar comp, and fell off the face of the earth after his age 28 season.
Witty .sig goes here.
by scareduck on
Apr 18, 2008 10:56 AM PDT
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That said
small sample size caveats obviously apply, and it’s FAR too early in the season to say much with any confidence. But I thank The Limey for bringing up a pretty important point WRT 2009; if Garland can’t miss more bats, the Angels have no business re-signing him past this season.
Witty .sig goes here.
by scareduck on
Apr 18, 2008 10:57 AM PDT
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Garland...
for the last six years has averaged about 210 innings.
He has averaged 110K’s over the last six years.
I’m not worried. He SHOULD get around 90 to 100.
by Downing Rules on Apr 18, 2008 10:01 AM PDT 0 recs
If he was signed to a 5 year contract...
...I would be worried about this, as strikeouts are the best longterm indicator of a pitcher’s greatness (not innings-eating averageness).
by Rev Halofan on Apr 18, 2008 11:50 AM PDT 0 recs
The importance of Ks
Regular HH game-thread participants may be aware of my obsession over 1) pitch speeds and 2) Ks. This is in large part due to: declining pitch speed is a lead indicator for worsening future performance and Ks are vital for a pitcher to have consistent success.
Garland’s drop in K/9 from 4.77 in 2006 to 4.23 in 2007 was not a good sign. But this year’s 1.11 is absurdly low. For those who have watched his starts, notice that he can’t throw his fastball by anyone, even though it comes in at a decent 91 mph.
On the topic of low K rates Darren Oliver has only 1 K in 9 innings of work, a bad sign for an aging pitcher. This is very disappointing, given the strong 7.13 K per 9 he posted last year.
Ain't no stoppin' us now. We got the groove!
by Fan Since 1981 on Apr 18, 2008 12:34 PM PDT 0 recs
I'm friendly with a large minority shareholder of the ChiSox
And he told me the other week that Garland will “frustrate the hell out of you,” and that “it’s hard to keep winning in this league if you can’t strike anybody out.” I accused him of being a DIPS-loving Queen Felix fan and he just shook his head. “You’ll see,” he said. “You’ll see.”
Here’s what we need out of Garland—one year, 190 innings, and a league-average ERA. It’ll be a high-wire act to get there, but with our good infield defense, and his track record of 4 out of the past five seasons of 200+ IP & ERA+s of higher than 100, I’m cautiously optimistic.
by mattwelch on Apr 19, 2008 6:22 AM PDT 0 recs
No. Cedric the Entertainer.
The moniker “Cedric the Entertainer” makes about as much sense as “Jon Garland Master of the Strikeout”.
Ain't no stoppin' us now. We got the groove!
by Fan Since 1981 on
Apr 19, 2008 2:31 PM PDT
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