Jon Garland - master of the strikeout

but possible. I ran two lists, one for the modern (>= 1900) era and another for the Retrosheet (>=1956) era, limited to pitchers who threw 100 or more innings and ordered by ascending K/9. Modern era first:

+-----------+----------+--------+------+-------+------+------+
| nameFirst | nameLast | yearID | ERA  | IP    | SO   | k/9  |
+-----------+----------+--------+------+-------+------+------+
| Slim      | Sallee   |   1919 | 2.06 | 227.7 |   24 | 0.95 | 
| Ernie     | Wingard  |   1924 | 3.51 | 218.0 |   23 | 0.95 | 
| Ike       | Butler   |   1902 | 5.34 | 116.3 |   13 | 1.01 | 
| Slim      | Sallee   |   1920 | 3.34 | 116.0 |   13 | 1.01 | 
| Jack      | Russell  |   1928 | 3.84 | 201.3 |   27 | 1.21 | 
| Ernie     | Wingard  |   1925 | 5.52 | 145.0 |   20 | 1.24 | 
| Win       | Mercer   |   1902 | 3.04 | 281.7 |   40 | 1.28 | 
| Sam       | Leever   |   1908 | 2.10 | 192.7 |   28 | 1.31 | 
| Jim       | Bagby    |   1946 | 3.71 | 106.7 |   16 | 1.35 | 
| Jack      | Russell  |   1930 | 5.45 | 229.7 |   35 | 1.37 | 
+-----------+----------+--------+------+-------+------+------+

Here’s the Retrosheet era:

+-----------+-------------+--------+------+-------+------+------+
| nameFirst | nameLast    | yearID | ERA  | IP    | SO   | k/9  |
+-----------+-------------+--------+------+-------+------+------+
| Glenn     | Abbott      |   1979 | 5.17 | 116.7 |   25 | 1.93 | 
| Kirk      | Rueter      |   2005 | 5.95 | 107.3 |   25 | 2.10 | 
| Tom       | House       |   1978 | 4.66 | 116.0 |   29 | 2.25 | 
| Ricky     | Horton      |   1988 | 4.86 | 109.3 |   28 | 2.30 | 
| Glenn     | Abbott      |   1981 | 3.94 | 130.3 |   35 | 2.42 | 
| Dave      | Rozema      |   1978 | 3.14 | 209.3 |   57 | 2.45 | 
| Bob       | Porterfield |   1957 | 4.05 | 102.3 |   28 | 2.46 | 
| Jim       | Palmer      |   1981 | 3.75 | 127.3 |   35 | 2.47 | 
| Ken       | Holtzman    |   1976 | 4.17 | 149.0 |   41 | 2.48 | 
| John      | Doherty     |   1994 | 6.48 | 101.3 |   28 | 2.49 | 
+-----------+-------------+--------+------+-------+------+------+

Obviously, some of these guys (Kirk Rueter, Jim Palmer especially) were at or near the end of their careers, living on guile and the defense behind them. But yeah, it’s pretty unusual to see strikeout rates this low. It’s often a sign that a pitcher is about to collapse (witness Jerrod Washburn’s flirting with a 4.00 K/9 just before the Angels let him go).

Since you asked for 200+ innings—in the modern era:

+-----------+----------+--------+------+-------+------+------+
| nameFirst | nameLast | yearID | ERA  | IP    | SO   | k/9  |
+-----------+----------+--------+------+-------+------+------+
| Slim      | Sallee   |   1919 | 2.06 | 227.7 |   24 | 0.95 | 
| Ernie     | Wingard  |   1924 | 3.51 | 218.0 |   23 | 0.95 | 
| Jack      | Russell  |   1928 | 3.84 | 201.3 |   27 | 1.21 | 
| Win       | Mercer   |   1902 | 3.04 | 281.7 |   40 | 1.28 | 
| Jack      | Russell  |   1930 | 5.45 | 229.7 |   35 | 1.37 | 
| Watty     | Clark    |   1935 | 3.30 | 207.0 |   35 | 1.52 | 
| Ted       | Lyons    |   1925 | 3.26 | 262.7 |   45 | 1.54 | 
| Urban     | Shocker  |   1927 | 2.84 | 200.0 |   35 | 1.57 | 
| Ray       | Starr    |   1943 | 3.64 | 217.3 |   42 | 1.74 | 
| Bill      | Hubbell  |   1921 | 4.33 | 220.3 |   43 | 1.76 | 
+-----------+----------+--------+------+-------+------+------+

+-----------+----------+--------+------+-------+------+------+
| nameFirst | nameLast | yearID | ERA  | IP    | SO   | k/9  |
+-----------+----------+--------+------+-------+------+------+
| Dave      | Rozema   |   1978 | 3.14 | 209.3 |   57 | 2.45 | 
| Fernando  | Arroyo   |   1977 | 4.17 | 209.3 |   60 | 2.58 | 
| Jim       | Barr     |   1976 | 2.89 | 252.3 |   75 | 2.68 | 
| Johnny    | Kucks    |   1956 | 3.85 | 224.3 |   67 | 2.69 | 
| Dave      | Roberts  |   1976 | 4.00 | 252.0 |   79 | 2.82 | 
| Mike      | Caldwell |   1980 | 4.03 | 225.3 |   74 | 2.96 | 
| Rick      | Langford |   1982 | 4.21 | 237.3 |   79 | 3.00 | 
| Bob       | Friend   |   1965 | 3.24 | 222.0 |   74 | 3.00 | 
| Bill      | Lee      |   1974 | 3.51 | 282.3 |   95 | 3.03 | 
| Jim       | Barr     |   1974 | 2.74 | 239.7 |   84 | 3.15 | 
+-----------+----------+--------+------+-------+------+------+

then who cares?

let the defense work. you don’t need to K every batter to be good.
he looked pretty good last night…

for the last six years has averaged about 210 innings.

He has averaged 110K’s over the last six years.

I’m not worried. He SHOULD get around 90 to 100.

...I would be worried about this, as strikeouts are the best longterm indicator of a pitcher’s greatness (not innings-eating averageness).

Regular HH game-thread participants may be aware of my obsession over 1) pitch speeds and 2) Ks. This is in large part due to: declining pitch speed is a lead indicator for worsening future performance and Ks are vital for a pitcher to have consistent success.

Garland’s drop in K/9 from 4.77 in 2006 to 4.23 in 2007 was not a good sign. But this year’s 1.11 is absurdly low. For those who have watched his starts, notice that he can’t throw his fastball by anyone, even though it comes in at a decent 91 mph.

On the topic of low K rates Darren Oliver has only 1 K in 9 innings of work, a bad sign for an aging pitcher. This is very disappointing, given the strong 7.13 K per 9 he posted last year.

And he told me the other week that Garland will “frustrate the hell out of you,” and that “it’s hard to keep winning in this league if you can’t strike anybody out.” I accused him of being a DIPS-loving Queen Felix fan and he just shook his head. “You’ll see,” he said. “You’ll see.”

Here’s what we need out of Garland—one year, 190 innings, and a league-average ERA. It’ll be a high-wire act to get there, but with our good infield defense, and his track record of 4 out of the past five seasons of 200+ IP & ERA+s of higher than 100, I’m cautiously optimistic.