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Does Francisco Rodriguez Increase Your Blood Pressure?

I almost became a Statistical Scold this afternoon.


You know what I am talking about – those assholes who inundate you with numbers to prove a point, the ones who cannot handle when you critique their numbers, the ones who claim to follow the great Bill James but do not share James’ primary traits of being inquisitively open-minded and rarely rigid.


All of their postings are for one purpose only – for you to tell them they are right. Do anything else and you will be scolded for not simply basking in their brilliance. If you disagree with them, you are scoffed at. If you point out the flaws in their methodology, you get a truckload of rationalizations. If you point out where they were wrong, you get more mumbo jumbo about “luck” and “crapshoots” then last month’s doomsaying astrologer explaining how we all survived that lunar eclipse.


Well, the Frankie-bashing was getting to be a bit much. I was going to scold you all, I was going to prove to you all that Troy Percival was just as dramatic and stress-inducing a closer as Frankie and then I was going to call all you Frankiebashers bandwagoneers for not having the memory of a true fan such as myself. But I am not a Statistical Scold; if the point I set out to prove is incorrect I don’t fuss with any other way to prove it – I can accept that my premise is wrong. You cannot tattoo the “EgoTiger” mark of close-minded, imperious arrogance on my forehead.


Well, bottom line, my memory is for shit – Percival’s drama factor (which I determined by using the player’s annual WHIP stat) was lower for almost every year of his career as an Angel than Frankie’s and to make things worse for my assumption, Percy was Frankie’s age when he became closer, that is, Frankie is worse now than Percy was when Troy was 6 years older than K-Rod is now.


Francisco Rodriguez is still a great closer, but he is slightly declining each season – from imperviously stellar to garden variety great. If the miniscule decline is a sign of inevitability, this offseason will be time for a laurel and hearty handshake to our new ex-closer. If there is a mechanical flaw to be perceived and fixed, let’s make the best bid next winter to re-up with Frankietime.


But, for now and the foreseeable future, Francisco Rodriguez is not the Angels best closer ever. Troy Percival was and is and you are not a bandwagoneer for jeering anyone’s stress-inducing 9th innings.

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There are plenty of OPEN-MINDED stat analysts out there

But so many shrill scolds that there is a stereotype forming that is not at all flattering to the vocation...

by Rev Halofan on Apr 3, 2008 7:30 PM PDT   0 recs

I can't take the walks

He has good stuff, but when he ends up nit-picking corners, bad things happen. Maybe it is the way that Percival handled himself or the numbers, but I felt better with him.

The stat thing is crazy. I can't fit my mind around it sometimes. Their are people who know who hits best on Mondays when their is a 2 in the date.

I know that their are people that love and can't handle that stuff, but that isn't for me. I think that is a big turnoff of fantasy baseball. Their is so much information to take in. But whatever, as long as I see "S" in the boxscore by Frankie's name, I can live with the 9th inning stress. It is the "BS" that will drive you crazy.

You guys in California really do live in heaven, the Angels are in town for more than just six games and there is Jack in the Box within 200 miles.

Myspacscobar has only one shoulder...maybe he could throw left handed....?

by Erik121 on Apr 3, 2008 7:34 PM PDT   0 recs

yes

it's the walks, that bother me. His breaking ball is so huge sometimes that he can't throw the slider for strikes. But I remain a big fan of Frankie and hope he is extended at some point. Remember only 2 years ago the guy was practically impossible to score against. He needs to try and get in front in the counts more, maybe throw the fastball more and then set up the slider for a two strike pitch. Then again, I have never been a big time major league closer so who am I to say.

Angels in 08!

by tanana40 on Apr 3, 2008 7:42 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

It's not just the "S" in the boxscore

I think that to be an elite closer you have to make the other team believe that when you take the mound, all hope is lost. That whole 'shorten the game to 8 innings' thing. You're right to note that the "Scolders" can ruin things. Especially closing which is so much about intangibles that they have to work extra hard to convince you, often with really tenuous stats to back up their arguments.

Captain, there are doubt's...

by Match Day 5 on Apr 3, 2008 7:51 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

BINGO!!!!!!

We have a winner, ladies and gentlemen!

When Percy came in, the Angels, at least (and probably the other team) knew it was game over. When K-Rod comes in, the other guys know they're *probably* going to lose, but they've got a shot and the Angels are probably all holding their breath.

Angels fan since '67

by red floyd on Apr 4, 2008 10:21 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Those daredevil types

probably get-off on the thrill of treading so close to disaster. The older I get, the less I like the risk.

Captain, there are doubt's...

by Match Day 5 on Apr 4, 2008 7:01 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

There are three ways of telling the truth:

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Scioscia, "Roll the hole!"

by 44FAN on Apr 3, 2008 7:49 PM PDT   0 recs

he's hot & cold

I remember saying last year/year before how inconsistent he was, he was wild etc and got my ass chewed up one side and down the other on how wrong I was.

I wasn't then and I'm not now.

He is amazing when he's good. There's not enough (fill in your favorite sedative) in the world when he's bad.

He gets rattled easily and then overthrows. If he gets behind in a count, he's off kilter.

I suggest a Xanax as part of his warm up regimen

by ladybug on Apr 3, 2008 7:51 PM PDT   0 recs

FORKBALL GOT HIM SWINGIN'

Al Conin is in my ear forever.

by Rev Halofan on Apr 3, 2008 8:12 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Nice!

Rev! Nice with the Al flash back! Of course these up start fans since 2002 would have no idea who you are talking about! Only those of us who remember the lean Von Hayes & Ruppert Jones years can appreciate good old Al.

by Hacksaw4 on Apr 4, 2008 8:08 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Jonny Ray

I ment Jonny Ray not Ruppert Jones!

by Hacksaw4 on Apr 4, 2008 8:12 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Thank you Frankie; you made my avatar a reality

Frankie is a baseball god for 2002 alone. I don't ever want to come across as a Frankie-basher (regardless of my comments regarding soiled undergarments). I do, however, get on edge during a 1-run late inning lead, no matter who is pitching. Real-time blogs are simply magnifying criticisms because fans react immediately to situations.

Compare Percy's 1st 3 yrs as a closer (96,97,98) vs. Frankie's (05,06,07)

___SV% K/9 WHIP
P__92.3 12.2 0.93
F__90.0 12.2 1.14

P__87.1 12.5 1.19
F__92.2 12.1 1.10

P__87.5 11.8 1.23
F__87.0 12.0 1.25

First 3 years for these guys are remarkably even. However, my concern is that Frankie seems to already be losing zip on his pitches, as he no longer seems to posess a mid-90s fastball. I hope he can remain effective.

Ain't no stoppin' us now. We got the groove!

by Fan Since 1981 on Apr 3, 2008 8:21 PM PDT   0 recs

So... wait

If the two of them are that similar, what is Rev talking about?

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Apr 4, 2008 7:11 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

That is lining them differently

I lined them up by AGE ... percy put up the 0.93 WHIP at age 26 ... Frankie's Age 26 season will be this season

by Rev Halofan on Apr 4, 2008 11:44 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

My point of posting these particular stats

was to demonstrate how very effective both guys have been. There is nothing to suggest from these numbers that either closer's saves were markedly more "dramatic".

Ain't no stoppin' us now. We got the groove!

by Fan Since 1981 on Apr 4, 2008 1:57 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm not a pitching coach and certianly not an expert

Hell, this is only my third full season of watching baseball. But I'm curious as to whether Frankie's delivery needs some serious alteration.

I watched the 2002 Series DVD and his delivery sucked a LOT less. I think he needs to go on the DL and spend some time in the minors refining his delivery and removing all the crap that makes him fly open and torque off o first base. He was most effective before he started doing that, and while it's risky (if not impossible...again, not educated on the matter), it's probably worth it if we want to keep a top-notch closer for longer than the rest of this season.

His delivery is the source of his current problems, and I think it needs to be stripped down to a standard leg kick and rebuilt.

Northeastern University Huskies: Mediocre hockey, guaranteed.

by Carl Johnson on Apr 3, 2008 8:27 PM PDT   0 recs

This is extremely true.

You look at his outings in that WS, and he had GREAT balance on the mound. It wasn't like he was falling over every time.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Apr 4, 2008 7:14 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

" I think he needs to go on the DL and spend some time in the minors refining his delivery and removing all the crap that makes him fly open and torque off o first base "

Thats a liitle extreme.....................................Actually a bit ludicrous.

I'll take K-Rod anyday.

TonZ of GunZ

by Funke5ive on Apr 4, 2008 2:21 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

that is insane

to send a guy to the minors because his delivery looks bad is about the most ridiculous thing i've ever heard. he saves 40+ three years in a row, and he's 2 for 2 so far this year. what exactly is he doing to hurt the team right now? succeeding too much?

on your logic, vlad should never be allowed to hit in the majors again because his swing looks bad. let's trade him for troy glaus, because troy just looks better at the plate. insane!

by yeswecan on Apr 4, 2008 3:11 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

If I were convinced Vlad's ugly swing was gonna injure him

I'd say the same thing. We're considering a long, multi-million dollar investment in a guy whose delivery is causing him physical pain on a daily basis. It's not stupid, it's not insane. It might be a little extreme, but so is playing people 10 mil/year to play baseball.

Northeastern University Huskies: Mediocre hockey, guaranteed.

by Carl Johnson on Apr 4, 2008 5:39 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

i'm not concerned about his value in november

you're talking about sending him to the minors NOW. we need him to close games, and as long as he can do it, don't fix what ain't broken. if he's healthy to pitch, then the angels need him to pitch. he seems just fine right now.

by yeswecan on Apr 4, 2008 5:46 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

KROD

krod walks because his fastball isnt what it used to be and he knows it. he doesnt trust it. Its why he he gets Ks by making guys miss on ONE pitch. giving a long term deal to a guy with one REALLY plus pitch is not smart. To be honest, i dont know why guys even swing until they have to. He is more wild than ever and his fastball when he does trust it ends up 2 blocks away from fenway in october.

by ihearhowie2.0 on Apr 3, 2008 8:51 PM PDT   0 recs

ps

dont be surprised if frankie starts systematically making it known he's back to being open to negotiating with the angels during the year if hes having a down year. he might be in for an andruw jones type contract year. lets hope not for the TEAM's sake

by ihearhowie2.0 on Apr 3, 2008 8:56 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Not to make too fine a point of it...

But we got 300 saves out of a guy with only "one plus pitch."

And towards the back end, he didn't even have a plus pitch.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Apr 4, 2008 7:09 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

no, believe me

i know what hes done for us and he'll always be one of the most important angels EVER, its just that if hes going to assert his value as being more than 13 million a year or whatever we've offered him and he seems intent on hitting the market, it's not the end of the world from a business standpoint. I personally just dont feel what he does anymore merits that much money. If this was 3 years ago, itd be another story, but as most people have pointed out, he seems to be getting worse every year. At this point hes just a younger todd jones with more of a reputation.

everyone points to his save totals and how thats all that matters, but you can look at jones and borowski and a ton of other guys and say the same thing. Give someone 50 opportunities and theyll get 40+ saves or else theyd be pulled before they got to that many.

my fear is that frankie would continue to walk guys and slowly blow more and more saves after a contract is signed and end up being a terrible, sentimental contract.

by ihearhowie2.0 on Apr 4, 2008 9:39 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Frankie is a high wire act, for certain.

And the fragility of his effectiveness is always exposed when batter simply refuse to swing. Just. Don't. Swing.

But, really, with whom would we replace him? Kevin Gregg? Consider age (how many years left in their career),and how effective they are in the role for which they are responsible on the team (that would be SAVES, not K/9, not ERA, not WHIP).

Face it. We got one of the premier closers. There are not that many of them. We got one. There are fans of at least 20 other teams that would drop to their knees and beg for our kind of problem. This is just the baggage that comes with that role.

by Stirrups on Apr 3, 2008 10:11 PM PDT   0 recs

.Darren O'Day

New closer in 2009... j/k, but if it comes true, you heard it first here

by Los Angeles de Anaheim on Apr 3, 2008 10:23 PM PDT   0 recs

People who strike out 4 batters for ever 3 IP...

... do not grow on trees, people. If/when Frankie eliminates the first-batter walk, he goes back to being the most unbeatable closer in the game. Darren O'freakingDay is not ever going to be that guy.

by mattwelch on Apr 3, 2008 11:01 PM PDT   0 recs

These people are hilarious

Ya know, 10 years ago, 91 octane gas was like $1.75. Now 87 is $3.35.

It's called a market, folks. And if you don't think Frankie is worth keeping around because you don't think he's as good as HE used to be, you need to find someone to replace him. There's a reason lots of relievers move from team to team to team. It's because there aren't that many that are good enough to keep around for a long time. The difference between how good you think Frankie should be and how good he is is completely irrelevant. What's relevant is the difference between how good he is (pretty damn good) and how good his replacement is (speculative at best).

Now, feel free to make an argument that there is a comparable alternative that makes more sense. But comparisons to Percival or to Frankie of years past is just dumb, and meaningless. Percival v1.996 and Frankie v2.004 ARE NOT ON THE MARKET. Of course, this will bring the inevitable "What about guys lik eDerrick Turnbow and Kevin Gregg?!?!" responses. Both of those guys are mediocre at best. In fact, Turnbow sucks. If you're comfortable turning over a championship caliber team to one of them, well, good luck with that.

by LA Seitz on Apr 4, 2008 9:53 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Controversial PANTHER.

I have been nodding in agreement with a lot on this thread and then you bitch-slapped me into reality. Thank you.

by Downing Rules on Apr 4, 2008 10:04 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I still like frankie

though his performances are creating some doubt. We shall have to wait and see.

by vladtheimpaler on Apr 4, 2008 12:48 AM PDT   0 recs

Concerning Frankie

There is certainly a lot of nit-picking and "BS" spewed among Angels' fans. It is almost like a self-fulfilling prophecy to want to watch him fail as long as the Angels pull it. I guess everyone wants 'my arm is toast' Scot Shields to close for piece of mind.

by BBFan1 on Apr 4, 2008 4:11 AM PDT   0 recs

no

If I had to choose a non-Frankie closer out of our bullpen, it'd be Speier.

Northeastern University Huskies: Mediocre hockey, guaranteed.

by Carl Johnson on Apr 4, 2008 4:23 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes, that's why we call him

"Cardiac Frankie".
The bottom line is that compared to say Mariano Rivera in HIS prime, there is NO longer fear that the game is limited to 8 innings when FR comes in. The guys in the dugout say: "This guy has a wicked slider, but he's wild, and his fastball is very hittable".
That is unlike Troy, who would come in, look at the batter, smile, and then deliver 3 - 98 mph fastballs in a row. End of batter. Period. The END.
Frankie is setting himself to be the ghost of Bill Monbouquette - flashes of brilliance punctuated by getting his cleats stuck on the rubber.
For sure Frankie is NEVER in a position to field a ball after he falls off the mound.

by SocalAngelFaninOC on Apr 4, 2008 6:31 AM PDT   0 recs

I remember reaching a point where ...

Percival was making me sweat profusely. It happens with closers. It is just something we have to deal with.

"You win some, you lose some."

Frankie is a great closer and we should be thankful we have a closer of his quality.

by Downing Rules on Apr 4, 2008 9:11 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree

It's the nature of being a closer.

Percival may have been slightly less stressful than Frankie, but they both had great results. I've been very grateful for Frankie's contribution the past few years and there are very few closers who I would have rather had on the team during that time.

That said, I don't think ANY closer is worth the kind of money Frankie is looking for. Let him walk. It will hurt the team a little, but they can spend the money better elsewhere. (Or maybe not, judging by some of the recent contracts handed out.)

by Dogman on Apr 4, 2008 9:17 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Oh my god, the horror!!

Frankie's no longer as good as the greatest closer in the history of the game in his prime!! What a shock!!

Hey, ya know what else? Compared to Babe Ruth in his prime, there is no longer the fear that Vlad is an automatic baserunner anymore. And compared to Sandy Koufax in his prime, there is no longer the fear that John Lackey is going to throw a complete game with few baserunners allowed and 11/12 strikeouts every time he's on the mound.

The standards some of you hold this guy to are pretty amazing. By the way, Troy Percival's Angels career as a closer, he had a save percentage of 87% (315/362). In his best three year stretch, 2001-2003, he had a save percentage of 91% 112/123). Frankie, in his first three years as a closer, has been 89.8% (132/147). So Frankie's only three years as a closer have been almost as good as Troy's BEST three years as a closer, plus you'd ignore the fact that Frankie threw 40! more innings in those three years.

This is not meant to denigrate Troy Percival. I'm a fellow Highlander, and I sponsor his B-Ref page. But you people tend to think that if Frankie doesn't reproduce his 3 IP, 25 pitches, 22 strikes, 6k performance against the Giants in the 2002 WS, then he must suck now. Again, the apt comparison is not Frankie then vs. Frankie now. It's Frankie now vs. what else is out there now. Sorry to tell you, but there's not much out there.

by LA Seitz on Apr 4, 2008 10:21 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

2004 - 2007 Postseason

0 Wins, 2 Loss, 2 SV 10 2/3 inn 5 earned runs (ERA almost 4.50) 12 hits / 7 walks, 11 K's.

Its not a standard that I have as much as its my belief that you can find a closer from within the organization. Not so wise to toss around so much $$$ for a closer. Hell there are 2 guys the Angels used to have that did not do a bad job out of the pen, and they did it for for a lot less $$$. That is money that can and should be used to lock up guys like Weaver Lackey and so on.

Kevin Gregg 32 saves (4 blown) Marlins won 71 games

Bobby Jenks 40 Saves (6 blown) Sox won 72 games

Francisco Rodriguez 40 (6 blown) Angels won 94 games

My feeling on the subject

by Angel Aviator on Apr 6, 2008 1:23 AM PDT to parent up   1 recs

It's been said before........

Last year I spoke about a lot of the things the Rev has said, and I was criticized. I am fine with that because I know that F-Rod is not the K-Rod he once was.

Let's face it the book is out. Just make him throw you strikes. He has lost his velocity so hitters are making him throw strikes, and not chasing that hard late breaking slider. They get in a fastball count and let it fly.

by Angel Aviator on Apr 4, 2008 10:23 AM PDT   0 recs

He's become predictable too

He falls in love with one pitch and throws it like 5-6 times in a row.

I shit bricks when he does goes, Fastball-Fastball-Fastball-Fastball-Slider-Slider-Slider-Slider. Mix it up Frankie!

by KendrickExperience on Apr 4, 2008 11:25 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Michael Cuddyer would disagree with you

Watch Frankie's last save and you'll see that he struck out both Carlos Gomez and Cuddyer with that slider. Cuddyer was in a 3-2 count with men on 1st and 2nd, and Frankie was still able to throw the slider for a strike a couple of times. He has lost velocity on his fastball, but he can still get hitters to chase the slider.

by foxpaw on Apr 4, 2008 11:46 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

BUT I LIKE TO BE CRITICIZED

Was it Diosthenes or Pat Benatar who said "Hit me with your best shot" ????

by Rev Halofan on Apr 4, 2008 11:49 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

That explains all the hits he's given up this season

And last season, when he gave up 50 hits in 67.3 innings, and three homers, the second lowest homer total in his career.

In fact, his ERA last year was fairly similar to what it was in 2003 and 2005. Both of those years were followed by excellent seasons. So far, he's fluctuated back and forth a bit. In fact, his numbers last year are striking similar to his 2005 numbers. 67.3 IP both years. A few more hits and walks last year, but half the home runs he had in 2005. Strikeouts dead even. So basically, if everyone here had been around in 2005, the calls would have surely been "Dump Frankie!! Don't re-sign him!". It would have been a great move, too, because all we would have missed out on was a 2006 campaign in which he save 47 games, with a 1.73 ERA. How about we let this season play out before we decide he's done?

by LA Seitz on Apr 4, 2008 11:50 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Whatever! .......I think Frankie is NOT an Angel in '09.

Whether it's an ankle, arm, elbow, shoulder, knee, or anal fissures, Frankie's dependable health is too much of a worry for them to plunk down 3 years/$45MM or more.

One-year contracts is the only way I would feel any level of confort. At some point, I would dispose of the cause of my unrest. How many times do you think the front office has grieved over the 4/$48MM contract GA signed in 2004?

by wumbug on Apr 4, 2008 11:29 AM PDT   0 recs

i'll take 40+ saves per year

he may not make it look pretty, and he may not scare anybody, but he gets people out at the end of games. and he does it frequently. does he make me cringe? you bet your stress meds. is he one of the premier closers in the game today? undoubtedly.

if he saves another 40 this year, as he's done the past 3 seasons, the angels should and will open up the checkbook nice and wide because there will be a ton of suitors for his services.

by yeswecan on Apr 4, 2008 12:31 PM PDT   0 recs

If you look at the total product they're pretty the same.

Percy went 86% in 377 save opportunities.
K-Rod is 85% in 174 opportunities.
If K-Rod had 2 more saves he'd be at 86%.
Push

Mound presence: Percy has a very mean scowl. Actually he was near-sighted and was squinting because he didn't wear corrective lenses. He had lasik done a few years ago.
Advantage Percy

Filth: K-Rod has perhaps the hardest slider in the dirt ever. The torque is unmatched. Percy had a 98MPH fast ball
Advantage K-Rod

Bringing it when it counts and playing with heart and intensity.
Push

Clubhouse guy / team leader
Advantage Percy

Rags to riches life story.
Advantage K-Rod

by melvintoast on Apr 4, 2008 3:50 PM PDT   0 recs

too glaus-like

k-rod reminds me of troy glaus
if i had a limited amount of time to make my fortune
i might act like them
but i'm a fan
love my team or go to hell
help my team now, i love u
leave us and i hate u
yes i'm a whore...deal with it
this does not apply to ryan, edmonds, fregosi, erstadt, eckstein, joyner, chili, reggie jackson?... i hate to love u 'cause i hated u before u were an angel
oh well, maybe jerry seinfeld was right, i'm just rooting for the uniform
thank god it's not periwinkle anymore

by hittheg on Apr 5, 2008 1:09 AM PDT   0 recs

The Comeack

What are your thoughts on the Troy Percival comeback?

Peter

http://www.baseballreflections.com

by PeterSchiller on Apr 19, 2008 12:38 AM PDT   0 recs

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