Win Probability Graphs

by Erik121 on Apr 7, 2008 7:33 AM PDT Comment 11 comments

I have been seeing these across the different Sports Nation blogs and was wondering if it was something that we here at Halos Heaven might want to look at during or after games.

I think the whole percentage chance of winning is pretty cool and I like how the key plays are pointed out. Damn Vladdy with that double play!

Any thoughts?

You can check any game when ever you want at www.fangraphs.com

This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.

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Comments

could be useful

in the post game thread if it's a close call for panther or BOTG
i've seen these graphs while trolling other sites also
never really liked them but i'd never seen the game the graph was referencing before
here's one vote to make erik121 the official fangraph poster to post game threads

by hittheg on Apr 7, 2008 4:53 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

OR

you could just look at a box score.

by cupie on Apr 7, 2008 5:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I understand where you are coming from

It can be a little too similar to everything else that is already talked about in the game threads.

Trade Quinlan for Jack, they are both clowns.

Anyone selling that sweet GA wall clock?

by Erik121 on Apr 7, 2008 5:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

A box score

won't tell you situational leverage or the probability of changing the win.

Like tonight:

Witty .sig goes here.

by scareduck on Apr 7, 2008 11:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for posting this scareduck

Last night was just unbelievable. The highs and lows from that game were something else.

Trade Quinlan for Jack, they are both clowns.

Anyone selling that sweet GA wall clock?

by Erik121 on Apr 8, 2008 6:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Turn that frown upside down?

Turn the Beat Around...

by Bilko 420 on Apr 9, 2008 12:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You need a graph to tell you that?

Sea-at-ha-ha-ha that's funny.

by hauldog on Apr 9, 2008 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

FanGraphs

No measure of D that I can figure out and the "math" determining the alleged leverage situations reminds me of the psychic metal pyramids in the mall in the 70s that sharpened razors and kept fruit fresh... yeah right.

But That chart above would make a nice tattoo...

by Rev Halofan on Apr 8, 2008 12:37 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Win probability?

Nobody knows how many games the Angels will win this year or what someone will do in the clutch or in any certain AB.

by Halos on Apr 8, 2008 12:44 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

hate 'em

Why isn't Bob Grich in the Hall?

by NoDakHalo on Apr 8, 2008 2:07 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I think these graphs...

are interesting to look at but not all powerful in determining a player's impact on a game. It doesn't take into account defense and the WPA is measured irregardless of what players are involved. If its tied in the 9th and theres a runner on first, the win probability is the same if its figgy or bengie molina and also the same if is vladdy or quinlan hitting. It's an interesting concept but doesn't mean everything.

Howie for MVP!

by angels.vlad27 on Apr 9, 2008 2:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs