FanPost

Pirates-Dodgers Trade scenario and bet

I love to talk about potential trades, and I was having a discussion with a friend of mine (a Bucks fan) about an off-season trade between the Dodgers and Pirates. I insist it is equally beneficial, whereas he argues that it would never happen because each club will put too much value on what they are giving up (the Dodgers will give up too many young players under team control; the Pirates will put too much value on the face of a franchise and a young starter with ace-potential). The loser has to consume five (5!) bacon wrapped hotdogs from the vendors near downtown LA. The package is James Loney, Andre Ethier, Chin Lung-Hu, Scott Elbert/James McDonald, and Hong Chi Kuo for Jason Bay and Ian Snell.

       Admittedly, the Bucks don't receive a ton of prospects with soaring ceilings (although, as stated earlier, Baseball Prospectus is high on Hu and McDonald, and Loney, Ethier and Kuo will have had 2+ years of production time in the majors to gain some insight on their projectability) but there are probably enough young, team-controlled assets that blend in age-wise with the up-coming crop of Pirates prospects (Walker, McClouth) that likely make this trade worthwhile. Furthermore, Adam LaRoche becomes another trade trip to add more pitching.

    From the Dodger's side, the offer should be contingent on a couple of shrewd free-agent signings and re-signing Furcal. Unless Loney demonstrates that his spike in power from last year is sustainable for a whole season, he might have more value as a trade chip, and replaced with Texiera. Kent could be replaced in house, or with a player like Mark Ellis. The cost of these two would not likely eclipse 25 million annually, and coupled with the salaries of Snell and Bay (signed for the 2009 season at  around 8 million I think), would still be less than the money shed during the off-season. Although Bay might be declining, the Dodger have a year to determine has value going forward to gauge the possibility of signing him long term. He at least provides an on base boost and solid production in left field.

What do you think?

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