Mathis v. Napoli CERA
Taking a lead off the current poll question on who is a better handler of the pitching staff, I thought I'd do a quick comparison between Mathis and Napoli in terms of their CERA (catcher's e.r.a.) for the season, as they have both started 17 games behind the plate. While the numbers weren't surprising (I expected Mathis to have the lower CERA before I checked the numbers), what was surprising was the difference:
Mathis CERA: 3.12 (150 innings caught, 112 total chances, 7 of 9 caught stealing)
Napoli CERA: 5.62 (149 innings caught, 93 total chances, 3 of 12 caught stealing)
I doubt the 2.5 runs per game differential will stay constant throughout the season, but it is food for thought...
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25 comments
Comments
Breakdown
Out of curiosity, did you run the numbers pitcher-by-pitcher? I’d be curious to see, at least for the starters, whether any of them have fared appreciably better with one or the other, or are they all just better with Mathis?
by jjackflash on May 6, 2008 7:33 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
more breakdown....
Which pitchers were caught by who….ie has Mathis caught Sanatana and Saunders on their good nights and Napoli had the Nickster on his first go round??
by LV AngelsFan on May 6, 2008 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This will...
most likely even out quite a bit over the course of 162 games. I don’t argue that Mathis has the better arm and seems to be the better defensive catcher. But, I fully expect Napoli to out-perform Mathis with the bat by a pretty big margin. Mathis is going to hit in the low to mid 200’s w/o much power and few walks. Napoli will hit for similar average but will draw some walks and hit more bombs – by a lot.
I still think a 60/40 split in favor of Napoli is a good plan with Mathis coming in as a defensive replacement in late games/close games. But, then do the Halos carry a third catcher? Who is the emergency catcher? Figgy?
by jimmuscomp on May 6, 2008 11:26 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
big margin?
for the sake of argument…
Mathis: 17 g, 57 ab, 15 h, 3 2b, 3 hr, 7 rbi, 2 bb, 13 k, .263 avg, .757 ops
Napoil: 17 g, 62ab, 15 h, 1 2b, 7 hr, 13 rbi, 4 bb, 16 k, .242 avg, .896 ops
those numbers are staggeringly similar – i’ll grant naps will hit more homers over the course of the season, but i would wager a bet that the difference in every other category will be negligible at best.
am going to check their respective W-L records in game started… back later
by ziggy on May 6, 2008 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ziggy - my man....
140 points of OPS is HUGE! Also, as someone said below, Mathis has caught more of the Weaver/Santana/Saunders starts. The CERA thing is a fluke – Napoli is a MUCH better offensive player. We just witnessed the hottest MLB streak Mathis has ever had and he is still 140 points of OPS away from Nipples.
Ziggy, it isn’t even close.
by jimmuscomp on May 6, 2008 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Similar?
Dude. You just proved that Napoli is twice the offensive force that Mathis is…and that’s with Napoli hitting as he is capable of, and Mathis hitting about as well as we should expect him to.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on May 7, 2008 12:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree with you guys
I think Mathis calls a better game, throws, is a better athlete, and handles the balls in the dirt better than Naps. From a defensive standpoint, Mathis is better and it plays out by the numbers.
I did not expect that wide of a disparity either. Naps must have caught the game Nick pitched! :(
There's an old saying: 50 percent of what's going to happen, you have no control over. And the other 50 percent is going to happen anyway." -- Arte Moreno
by K3YEROUT on May 6, 2008 1:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
catcher W-L
game score, result, (starting catcher), starting pitcher
3-2 L (mn) – weaver
9-1 W (mn) – garland
1-0 W (jm) – saunders
5-4 W (mn) – santana
11-6 L (mn) – mosely
2-1 W (jm) – weaver
10-4 L (mn) – garland
6-4 W (mn) – saunders
4-3 L (jm) – santana
9-5 W (mn) – mosely
8-5 L (jm) – weaver
8-3 L (mn) – garland
10-5 W (jm) – saunders
7-4 W (mn) – santana
7-4 W (jm) – mosely
3-2 L (mn) – weaver
5-3 W (jm) – garland
5-4 W (mn) – saunders
4-1 W (jm) – santana
4-2 L (mn) – moseley
7-6 L (jm) – weaver
6-4 W (jm) – garland
7-5 W (mn) – saunders
4-2 W (jm) – santana
6-4 L (jm) – mosely
6-2 W (mn) – weaver
14-2 L (mn) – garland
2-0 W (jm) – saunders
6-1 W (jm) – santana
15-8 L (mn) – adenhart
4-3 L (jm) – weaver
3-1 W (mn) – garland
6-5 W (jm) – saunders
4-0 W (jm) – santana
by ziggy on May 6, 2008 1:57 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
i think
that much of the difference between the two in CERA is the pithcers. 14 of jm’s 17 starts have come with weaver, saunders, or santana on the mound while napster has only 8 of 17 with those three. Also, out of 6 games in which we have given up 8 or more runs, napoli has caught 5, all behind garland, moseley, or adenhart. This include all four times we gave up over 10 runs (10, 11, 14, 15 runs). Early in the season, this accounts for a significant gap in CERA.
Howie for MVP!
by angels.vlad27 on May 6, 2008 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent look at things
It sure seems apparent that Mathis needs a couple more cracks at catching Judy. Naps has the 2 Garland stellar efforts, but he also has ALL the Garland stinkers! Mathis has only caught Judy twice. We won both games 6-4 and 5-3.
Personally, this is fun to look at, but I think Soth is doing exactly the right thing. Play them both and keep them both as fresh as possible. Each has his strengths and we do nothing but benefit from it! I don’t normally like platoons, but I really like this one thus far!
There's an old saying: 50 percent of what's going to happen, you have no control over. And the other 50 percent is going to happen anyway." -- Arte Moreno
by K3YEROUT on May 6, 2008 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yo yo
Peeps have been studying this issue for years and no one has gotten anywhere. You often see splits like this, but they almost always disappear the next season.
Usually these big splits are because one guy caught the good pitchers, or more road games or something. But maybe the reason those pitchers do so well is partly because of that guy’s game calling.
Anyway, if anyone ever figures this out it will be a huge breakthrough. We’ll just have to admit it’s a possibilty for now.
P.S. The only catcher I can remember who consistenly did well on relative ERA was Mickey Tettleton.
by elricsi on May 6, 2008 2:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Napoli caught all but two of Moseley's starts
The last two disasters included.
Sea-at-ha-ha-ha that's funny.
by hauldog on May 6, 2008 3:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Tidbits
from Adenhart Hopes article on angel website
No player in the Major Leagues has a better home run ratio than Halos catcher Mike Napoli (seven in 62 at-bats), but Scioscia has no plans of using the designated-hitter option to find more plate appearances for him. Napoli and Jeff Mathis have shared the catching duties, each playing 17 games. “If you look at the long-term success of the club, we’re really going to need Gary Matthews, Vlad [Guerrero], Garret [Anderson] and Torii [Hunter] to be part of that,” Scioscia said. “You don’t rule anything out if the time comes, but we want to get those four guys going. We have a lot of guys to try to get at-bats for.” ... Adenhart is the youngest pitcher in the Majors. The only younger player in the game is Diamondbacks outfielder Justin Upton, who turns 21 on Aug. 25—one day after Adenhart turns 22.
There's an old saying: 50 percent of what's going to happen, you have no control over. And the other 50 percent is going to happen anyway." -- Arte Moreno
by K3YEROUT on May 6, 2008 4:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Glaringly Absent
from Scioscia’s quote is the name “Juan Rivera,” who could provide a lot more of what they “need” in terms of the DH than GMJr. could dream of providing.
by jjackflash on May 6, 2008 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see it all and I read it all.
I just can’t figure out how so many fans can be so much more knowledgable than our dumb-ass manager Scioscia.
by wumbug on May 7, 2008 7:58 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Here's the breakdown I've got
This is strictly average runs per game grouped by starting pitcher.
If you throw out the #5 gas cans then you’ve got about a 1.5 run improvement for Naps when Garland and Weaver start and about a 2.2 run improvement for Mathis when Santana and Saunders start. I’d say that you can’t conclude that Mathis calls a better game. In fact, I find it interesting that Mathis is +1.74 in Weaver starts where his ability to throw out runners is nullified by Weaver’s slow move to the plate.
Pitcher Mathis Salad Mathis-Differential Adenhart 3 8 -5 Judy 3.5 2.2 +1.3 Gas can 4 4.3 -0.3 Magic 1.4 4 -2.6 Colonel 2.5 4.3 -1.8 WTY 3.75 2 +1.74
by melvintoast on May 7, 2008 11:50 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
You don't need Socrates behind the plate
when Ervin is pitching. Conversely, Einstein himself couldn’t save our fifth starters and bottom feeders in the bullpen.
Butcher goes over the entire scouting report with all the pitchers before every series. From there, they develop a game plan for each batter. Pitch selection is discussed, as well as special situations. There should be very little left to chance – it’s not like they give Mathis certain information and not Napoli, or vice versa.
I admit that there is a certain instinct some catchers may have, and/or a “feel” for the right pitch to throw in some circumstances (much like an offensive coordinator in football). But the pitcher better have just as much of that instinct as the catcher! In the end, the best weapon is the pitcher executing his pitches.
Side note: Wasn’t Josh Paul working on a book about pitch selection etc?
"When you don't know that you don't know, it's a lot different than when you do know that you don't know" - Bill Parcells
by johnnyangel101 on May 7, 2008 3:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
of note
Just for kicks, I checked on ESPN.com for the rankings of Mathis and Napoli MLB wide in terms of CERA (yes, we can debate its validity ad nauseam, but here are the numbers anyway):
Of all everyday catchers in baseball, Kurt Suzuki (Oakland) has the lowest CERA (3.13, in 33 games and 290 innings caught—the guy is a workhorse). The highest for all everyday catchers is a toss-up between Jason Kendall (4.74 in 30 games) and Gerald Laird (4.96 in 24 games; higher than Kendall, but 24 starts might be on the border to call him truly everyday). Following tonight’s debacle, Napoli’s CERA stands at 5.85 in 18 games, the highest CERA for ALL catchers in MLB discounting the few players who have appeared in just 4 or 5 games that rank with a higher CERA). And, after last night, Mathis stands at 3.11 in 18 games (Barajas in Toronto has a pretty stellar 2.75, but in only 11 games started).
I’ll make it a point of posting an updated CERA ranking for both Naps and Mathis at the end of May and see if the numbers are moving in any discernible fashion.
by ziggy on May 8, 2008 12:59 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
ANY MORE QUESTIONS?
You ask, they answer..........
by wumbug on May 8, 2008 12:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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