AL Projections
by elricsi on Jun 1, 2008 7:37 PM PDT
29 comments
Based on current standings and run differential from 2007 and 2008. These are very accurate power rankings, I think. These are projected wins at the end of the regular season. I posted once before at the end of an old thread. I'm curious if you would like an update from time to time as the season goes along.
| BOS 98.0 |
| LAA 90.2 |
| NYA 87.8 |
| TOR 87.3 |
| OAK 84.9 |
| CLE 83.6 |
| TBA 83.5 |
| MIN 81.0 |
| CHA 79.7 |
| DET 79.2 |
| TEX 79.1 |
| BAL 73.1 |
| SEA 68.1 |
|
KCA 67.8 |
This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.
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my hopes, guesses
1. i would LOVE to see tampa bay make the playoffs. Hopefully a little david price and jeff niemann in their rotation could keep their pitching rock solid.
2. 90 wins is fair for us assuming our offense wakes up which it will. If it didnt, theres no way wed keep winning without our pitchers going insane.
3. i think the tigers get their heads out of their asses and win the central. White sox arent for real and cleveland with NOTHING from hafner isnt nearly as scary an offense.
my playoffs:
west: angels
east: sox
central: tigers
WC: rays!
by ihearhowie2.0 on Jun 1, 2008 7:41 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
run differential doesnt always tell the true story. i mean in 2005 the whitesox had a great run differential because their hitters were all having career years and their bullpen was just amazingly good.
a better way to do this is using pecota predictions with the standings. pecota basically predicts how good a player will be, using thousands of variables and stuff. heres the link
I AM THOR, GOD OF THUNDER. BOW TO MY WILL AND MY HAMMER!
by anaheim angels on Jun 1, 2008 7:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
damn, that didnt work. its http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddselo.php
I AM THOR, GOD OF THUNDER. BOW TO MY WILL AND MY HAMMER!
by anaheim angels on Jun 1, 2008 7:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
my bad again. wow im really dropping the ball
aparently that was the ELO standings. dont ask, i have no idea what it means. this is the pecota standings.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddspec.php
I AM THOR, GOD OF THUNDER. BOW TO MY WILL AND MY HAMMER!
by anaheim angels on Jun 1, 2008 7:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting
PECOTA predicts a very tight race for the AL East with the Yankees beating out the Rays and Red Sox.
by HungryHunter on Jun 1, 2008 8:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
any projections that say the white sox will have more wins than us
is rubbish
Halos Fan Since 5th Grade
by angels4adam on Jun 1, 2008 9:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Any Projection
that has the Yankees finishing ahead of both Toronto and Tampa Bay is not to be believed at this point. Frankly, I don’t even know how they’re a .500 ballclub with that pitching staff.
by jjackflash on Jun 1, 2008 11:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
exactly. their pitching staff cant go anywhere but up
especially if joba starts. and jose molina has started the majority of the games at catcher, while a rod has also missed time. robby cano is underperforming as is jeter. their entire pitching staff is doing below average at the very best (with the exception of mariano, who is un-freakin-believable. they can only get better, and dont forget this is the team that last year everyone ruled out about now. i dont think they are gonna win the east, and they prolly wont even win a wild card, but they should be in contention until mid september or so
I AM THOR, GOD OF THUNDER. BOW TO MY WILL AND MY HAMMER!
by anaheim angels on Jun 1, 2008 11:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYY/2008.shtml
I AM THOR, GOD OF THUNDER. BOW TO MY WILL AND MY HAMMER!
by anaheim angels on Jun 1, 2008 11:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
huh?
I must respectfully disagree. Mussina will be gassed by August, Wang ain’t no ace, Hughes & Kennedy aren’t ready yet, Rasner is not a real pitcher, Pettitte’s success depends on a steady stream of HGH, and once Chamberlain goes to the rotation, Rivera will be the only guy left in the ‘pen capable of recording outs on a regular basis. That they’ve managed a .500 record to this point strikes me as overachieving, not underachieving. They’ve got only the 4th-best staff in that division.
by jjackflash on Jun 2, 2008 7:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Plus
they’ve got a first-year manager who is probably still on double-secret probation with Hank, Jr.
Witty .sig goes here.
by scareduck on Jun 2, 2008 11:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You mean the NL Manager of the year in 2006?
Seattle I would like to thank you for sucking. It allows me to get back to my roots: Hating Fremont.
by hauldog on Jun 3, 2008 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think i might have to back off my position a little
the yankees are in serious trouble. unless their bullpen goes all 05 white sox, theyre screwed. they really needed hughes and kennedy to be servicable along with others. and thats not happening. maybe we could trade garland for a good relief prospect
I AM THOR, GOD OF THUNDER. BOW TO MY WILL AND MY HAMMER!
by anaheim angels on Jun 3, 2008 11:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Don't call me Desmond
by highlandhalo on Jun 1, 2008 8:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: zzz...zzz
Drink coffee.
Eat My Angel Dust.
by Angels95 on Jun 1, 2008 10:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Simple Question:
If these rankings are already “very accurate”, why would there be any need for future updates?
by Stirrups on Jun 1, 2008 9:43 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Ernest Hemmingway said the best advice he ever got as a writer: Never use the word “very”.
by Rev Halofan on Jun 1, 2008 11:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very very good point
I should have not used the word very.
I am aware of the other projection systems and how they work, I’ve been playing with this stuff for years. I actually like the one at www.coolstandings.com but I don’t think it’s results are good early in the season. In the first half of the season, I believe it’s useful to pay attention what happened to the previous year (which is why the Yankees rank so high). I think the Yankees will recover, but it will be an uphill battle for the playoffs.
4 things I believe based on the projections so far:
1. Boston will sail into the playoffs and they can print their tickets now
2. The Angels are likely to make the playoffs, but there will be some nail biting scares along the way
3. There should be an epic battle for the wild card spot
4. A team is likely to miss the playoffs with a better record than the Central division winner
P.S. Elo is from the Elo-Chess ranking system, which weights wins against better teams more highly.
by elricsi on Jun 2, 2008 7:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
4 words:
Matsuzaka’s shoulder
Papi’s wrist
by Rev Halofan on Jun 2, 2008 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'am curious if
Santa Claus brings pennants to the teams with the best chemistry?
"i got 5ive on it"
by Funke5ive on Jun 1, 2008 9:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Sirens, bells, whistles
We have a rule 5 violation. Nobody panic. And an obvioulsy purposeful rule violation too. Double violation.
Angels Defense. Angels Pitching. Get past that.
by vladtheimpaler on Jun 2, 2008 2:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No Funke5ive,
Santa does not bring pennants to the teams with the best chemistry. Chemistry is an illusion to fans and a pleasant summer’s bonus to the players.
by Rev Halofan on Jun 2, 2008 2:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Load of shit
Boston won’t be 8 wins above the rest of the pack.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Jun 2, 2008 9:07 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
We'll win 95
Run differential doesn’t tell the story of widespread injury, a slumping Vladdy, and getting the crucial first 100 MLB ABs for Brandon Wood. We’ll have a much better run differential the rest of the way, and we’ll finish with around 95 wins in this super-crappy division, I do believe.
by mattwelch on Jun 3, 2008 6:47 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Let's take it one game at a time...
how can you all look at the end of the season when it is only June?
"At some point, a veteran player will more often than not find his stroke. You just have to show them a little bit of patience."
by Downing Rules on Jun 4, 2008 10:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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