Angels vs. A's Hitting Philosophies
by Carl Johnson on Jun 3, 2008 10:30 AM PDT
40 comments
From our fellow SBNation site Beyond the Box Score comes this little gem:
The biggest hacker on the list is, duh, Vlad Guerrero. Also up on the list are Brandon Wood (duh again) and Erick Aybar (broken record). You'll also see all-time Angel Darin Erstad on the list.
On the "Who's not swinging at crap" list, you'll find current A's Jack Cust, Frank Thomas, and Daric Barton. Also included is current Jay and former Athletic Marco Scutaro, whose last name is fun to say if you extend out the u to "oooooo."
We are, admittedly, in first place, but I'd like to see at least one of our players learn to stop hacking at crap. The first step is Vlad learning that his bat speed doesn't allow him to hit literally everything anymore, and he's helping out the team if he walks instead of striking out.
It is what it is, I s'pose. Interesting to look at, though.
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Double edged hacking sword:
How many times have the A’s batters taken a first pitch that was grooved to be hit between the outfielders? How many hacks did the Angels take in early counts that ended up missing everyone’s glove?
Best record in baseball with all those hacks means that they are hitting some pitches that other teams are sitting on…
by Rev Halofan on Jun 3, 2008 10:49 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm in the middle
I think sometimes swinging at pitches early is great but taken to an extreme ala Vlad it is detrimental.
I think Willits has the best approach at the plate. He will almost always take pitches early if he’s leading off or there is no one on base. But when the pond is full of ducks he’s going up there with the idea of getting them in with the first pitch he thinks he can put a good swing on.
Sure he’ll strike out on a called pitch a bit more than other guys on the team, but personally I find that less frustrating than say GMJ hitting the ball as hard as he can to LCF on the first pitch and having the CF run it down because he only has warning track power to the opposite field.
As for the best record in baseball, I tend to think most of that can be attributed to the pitching staff and the defense. I mean the offense hasn’t scored 5 runs in a game in how long?
by MH252525 on Jun 3, 2008 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lifetime .322 Batting Average = detrimental
mental or detri-mental?
by Rev Halofan on Jun 3, 2008 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Vlad is a freak
In that he had such great numbers despite having little plate discipline as a result of having the hand eye coordination that we’ll probably never see again in our lifetimes. However, don’t you think his numbers would have been even better if he swung less at balls? I mean certainly he can hit a ball right down the middle further and more consistently than a ball 3 inches outside and at his ankles.
by MH252525 on Jun 3, 2008 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Vlad is a notorious bad-ball hitter
his best hits come from high fastballs, inside most-anything and he has been known to golf the ball over the fence.
That being said, it seems his knees won’t allow him to reach the same pitches he used to. Pitchers figured this out this season and have been consistently baiting Vlad with the low-away fastball and he has been biting 90% of the time. Also, he is an eager hitter with nearly zero plate discipline, so watch him as a fastball comes down the center, He’ll usually see it coming, but in his anticipation will swing over it and dribble it to the infielders awaiting the ball.
by shiftyeyedgoat on Jun 3, 2008 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
you assume that plate discipline is 100% good
Plate discipline is a successful skill for most hitters, but Vlad is a freak (as you said). I think the logical conclusion you should draw is that Vlad’s HOF career has been - not despite, but because of - his lack of plate discipline. We’ll never know whether or not Vlad would’ve been more successful if he had used the same strategies as most other successful hitters, but we certainly know the results of his atypical hitting approach.
by yeswecan on Jun 3, 2008 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Vlad
I don’t think plate discipline is of equal importance to all hitters. For example Naps has to be more selective than Howie because Mike can put a good swing on less pitches than can Howie. However I would have a hard time not believing that the better the pitches a player swings at the better his stat line would look relative to what he is capable of. I don’t think Vlad needs to turn into anything close to Barry Bonds, but I think his numbers would generally improve and would have been even better in the past if he laid off some pitcher’s pitches.
by MH252525 on Jun 4, 2008 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
When other sports involve making a decision in a nanosecond
I will consider it but turning on a fastball is the hardest thing to do in sports.
Seattle I would like to thank you for sucking. It allows me to get back to my roots: Hating Fremont.
by hauldog on Jun 5, 2008 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kotch, Naps
Show the Angels work with what they got.
Seattle I would like to thank you for sucking. It allows me to get back to my roots: Hating Fremont.
by hauldog on Jun 3, 2008 11:02 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Here's my issue with hacking, particularly early in the game:
Especially for pitchers who you’ve never seen before, you wanna take a couple pitches and see what he has to offer. Moreover, if he’s actually pitching well, don’t make his life easier by getting yourself out on a 1-0 count. In today’s world of pitch counts, it helps to force other teams to get into their bullpens, even if you might miss out on a grooved pitch early. When pitchers are tired they don’t throw as well, so you might as well accept some earlier strikeouts in exchange for later base hits.
Northeastern University Huskies: Mediocre hockey, guaranteed.
by Carl Johnson on Jun 3, 2008 11:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Mickey Hatcher
his philosophy of “Don’t swing unless it’s a pitch” is fine if you can trust the batter to only swing at hittable pitches. Too often, it seems that Angels batters make early-count outs (especially early in the game) swinging at pitches that would not be called strikes. Willits and Kotchman are a couple of guys who are “selectively aggressive,” in that they’ll swing at the first-pitch fastball if it’s over the middle of the plate. The problem is going up there aggressive against pitchers who aren’t aggressive…the Armando Gallaragas of the world, pitchers whose only chance at success is to nibble at the zone. Being aggressive isn’t son bad when you’ve got a really good pitcher on the mound, who will throw a hittable pitch only once per AB…either to get ahead, or when he’s down 3-0.
by jjackflash on Jun 3, 2008 12:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
For what it's worth ...
I’ve noticed in the last few games I’ve been able to catch on MLB.TV that Vlad is hacking a hell of a lot less recently. Perhaps this is a reaction to his knowledge that he is in a huge slump; however, I’ve noticed Vlad taking a look at a lot of pitches that normally he would have had a big swipe at.
Vlad being Vlad? ... Maybe he is realising his role as anchor in the lineup does not involve free-swinging? And he is realising his current limitations?
Don't call me Desmond
by highlandhalo on Jun 3, 2008 2:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Title this.....
Much Ado About Nothing
Do not trade Howie!!!
by anaheimisnotla on Jun 3, 2008 4:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Hmmmmm....the source is a blog about sabremetrics.
So, for starters, we have a natural bias here. Swinging at pitches that are not in the strike zone is deemed to be “bad”. Why? Because pitch results can be quantified as “balls” and “strikes” and those are numbers and value judgements of good and bad can be applied to the numbers. And we have a result. And we can pass judgement.
Ahem….
How is this analysis counting which pitches are strikes and which pitches are balls?
- are they following the ump? That is a subjective source, and an opinion that can differ from that of the hitter. Not to mention differ from reality. Not to mention change from hitter to hitter, or pitcher to pitcher, or ump to ump.
- are they following the published box score results? I have noticed that everything a hitter swings at is recorded as a strike in the pitch total. Er…that defies this analysis, so that cannot be the source.
- are they following any computer tracking system? They don’t have that in every ballpark. Tha creates holes in the data.
- are they using their own subjective opinion? Nah. Can’t be.
But let’s ask other questions:
- who defines what the appropriate and most efficient zone range (up and down, inside and outside) is for each hitter? You know, the one where the hitter is actually swinging within the natural effective range for his abilities.
- how was that figured out?
- what does that zone have to do with the strike zone in the rule book?
- what does that zone have to do with the strike zone actually being called? By each particular ump?
- are we taking any of that into consideration? Why or why not?
- does the analysis remove those pitches or at-bats in which the hitter INTENTIONALLY swung at pitches outside of anybody’s idea of a proper strike zone in order to protect a runner? Or how about staying alive at the plate because they were fooled and started their swing at a curveball that began as a potential strike?
- are we taking into consideration how certain pitchers (Maddux, Glavine) and certain hitters (Jeter) have an obvious ability to force the umpire to alter the strike zone in their favor as the game progresses?
- So it is “bad” for the hitter to swing at a pitch that he truly believes is hittable, even though the ump or the analyst may choose to assign a value of “unhittable” to that same pitch? Who is the expert here?
Just askin…
by Stirrups on Jun 3, 2008 5:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
a natural bias? what does that even mean?
Sabrmetrics is another term for “stats.” The blog talks stats. Just because some baseball fans worship statistics and the others go “sabrmetrics are fake LOL santa claus brings pennants to teams with the best chemistry duh” doesn’t make a site based on stats “biased.”
Northeastern University Huskies: Mediocre hockey, guaranteed.
by Carl Johnson on Jun 4, 2008 8:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Poorly worded. I apologize. The long version would be....
My point is that just because baseball statisticians use numbers does not mean that the statistical use of those numbers results in a cold, hard, science. Sabremetrics is not complete and settled law. There has long been, and continues to be, much debate on the value of certain metrics, and a search for improved metrics. So, it follows that because sabremetricians debate the relative value of their preferred metrics, and sabremetricians are people, and people are prone to personal biases in the support of their choices and arguments, sabremetrics will include bias. Not unlike any other statistical study.
There are, of course, mathematical bias traps that are part of all statistical analysis.
In the case of sabremetrics and baseball, there is also an open dialog that the use of known and established sabremetrics defines an advantage over those teams who fail to adhere to their principals. Fair enough, and probably accurate – especially when mapped against the economics of player payroll. But it cannot be denied that the advocates on both sides are subject to bias in favor of their position. Sabremetricians are biased in favor of their current assembly of data analysis (not the data, but the analysis) for the simple reason that any other reality would threaten the validity of their study, and their efforts, and their results, and their passion. This is “natural”. It is a part of the human condition.
In this context, it would be “natural” for a some sabremetricians to be biased in favor of these numbers, because they indicate a positive re-infrorcement of the Oakland statistical approach to baseball, unlike the Halos, whose success is sheer luck. It cannot be denied that their are sabremetric acolytes who are fans of the A’s, and who behave this way.
by Stirrups on Jun 4, 2008 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with what you said
but in a nondenominational baseball blog which is focused on stats, there should be no underlying bias. Even if your average A’s fan has a propensity to favor sabrmetrics over the average fan, that doesn’t necessarily reflect itself as a bias in the statistics.
But that’s irrelevant, because that chart is just raw data which happens to include players from our franchise and the one in Oakland. It’s interesting to note that Beane is serious…he really does look for players with a well-defined concept of the strike zone and a willingness to remain within it, while the Angels organization still uses RISP2 as their most important stat in the minors.
Northeastern University Huskies: Mediocre hockey, guaranteed.
by Carl Johnson on Jun 4, 2008 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The shorter version
If you have a reasonable counter-argument with data, I’d like to hear it. “Bias” is just a ridiculous charge.
Witty .sig goes here.
by scareduck on Jun 4, 2008 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh, and they do have pitch tracking in every ballpark as of the start of this season
this is raw data, and regardless fo how it’s collected, it just shows that the A’s value hitters with a more disciplined approach at the plate than the Angels do, and that surprises nobody. It’s just interesting to see it laid out in numbers.
Northeastern University Huskies: Mediocre hockey, guaranteed.
by Carl Johnson on Jun 4, 2008 8:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good to know. Thanks.
Do you know if the tracking operator has to adjust what is a ball and strike according to the ump, the way that the hitters being recorded must?
by Stirrups on Jun 4, 2008 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
its three cameras, one of which is moved per batter to create the correct zone per batter
ie. Sexson and Eckstein have different zones
Northeastern University Huskies: Mediocre hockey, guaranteed.
by Carl Johnson on Jun 4, 2008 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is the "correct zone" defined as...
1) the tracker operator’s interpretation of the rule book?
2) the actual strike zone that the ump is using at the time? or…
3) what the batter thinks is the current strike zone based on recent experience?
Let’s assume that the answer is #1. That seems most probable. Please correct me with the actual facts if I am wrong.
Let’s assume that the ump behind the plate has his own interpretation of the zone, which differs from that which the tracker operator is using. That seems reasonable, based on past experience observing baseball and being aware that MLB uses the tracking system to review and advise umps concerning their zone calling habits. After all, such counseling would not be necessary if there was no difference.
It’s now safe to infer that the batter has two choices when confronted with a pitch that is not within the zone as defined by the rules, but within the zone as being called by the ump. They can swing at the pitch, or they can watch it. If they swing, that action will be measured as “hacking” on the report in question. If they do not swing, that action will be measured as “disciplined” in the report.
These terms equate to “bad” and “good”. I may be missing some other point here, but it seems to me that the most probable way that being so “disciplined” is “good” is that the batter is making a conscious attempt to influence the ump and force the ump to adjust the zone he is calling to better conform to the zone that is in the rule book. Is this the strategy that is being advocated b y the authors labels of “hacking” and “not” hacking?
by Stirrups on Jun 4, 2008 5:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're definitely overthinking this
It’s good to only swing at pitches in the strike zone. Period. Regardless of a batter’s personal preference for low and inside pitches, your best chance to hit the ball comes when the ball is in the strike zone.Sure, Vlad golfs pitches off his ankles over the fence, but there’s nobody else like Vlad.
There’s no argument for swinging at crap outside the zone. Period. I don’t think it’s related to trying to influence the ump, either. In fact, I think it’s quite the opposite: Batters who know what zone an umpire is calling are less likely to swing at crap.
And regardless of what zone the system uses, it’s the same across all the data, so any error based on “wrong zone” or whatever is applied to everyone. Yes, you’re right when you say it’s possible an ump has an unusually strange zone one day that has him striking guys out on balls way off the plate. But every day like that is countered by a day where the ump’s zone covers the middle three inches of the plate. It evens out.
Northeastern University Huskies: Mediocre hockey, guaranteed.
by Carl Johnson on Jun 5, 2008 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i dare you to hold yourself up to such detailed scrutiny
no way you survive a brush with yourself.
by Rev Halofan on Jun 5, 2008 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I crashed into myself a couple of decades ago.
Terrible argument ensued. I ended up kicking my ass. Still bitter.
by Stirrups on Jun 5, 2008 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How dare they use Vlad's name in Vain.
He will Impale all who challenge His domain.
Angels Defense. Angels Pitching. Get past that.
by vladtheimpaler on Jun 4, 2008 12:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Especially in the rain
or anywhere on the plain. Or east or west coast etc., etc.
Angels Defense. Angels Pitching. Get past that.
by vladtheimpaler on Jun 4, 2008 12:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Vlad
For all the junk about his lack of discipline, he has a .389 lifetime on-base percentage and has never struck out more than 100 times in a season. He has only struck out more than 90 times once in his Major League career.
I will admit, however, his bat seems to have slowed a bit [compared to years past] and maybe he is more anxious at the plate.
by BBFan1 on Jun 4, 2008 12:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
This year
Vlad’s on pace to strike out 108 times, which would be a career high by a large margin. I believe his bat has slowed, and so he can’t get to all of the bad pitches he used to be able to hit. Plus, he’s late on a lot of pitches he’d otherwise crush. Unless he makes some adjustments, including being more selective, he will continue to strike out more frequently.
by jjackflash on Jun 4, 2008 7:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think Vlad's bat has slowed
He’s a bit hurt, and he’s too muy macho to go all pussy about it. Vlad’s going to break out in a big way soon.
Don't call me Desmond
by highlandhalo on Jun 4, 2008 8:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
IDIOTIC IDIOTIC IDIOTIC ... How ridiculous does all of this sound?
Okay how does this sound:
Staring tomorrow, totally change the way you screw your wife. You are just not doing it right after all these years. CHANGE IT. HOW? Oh, i guess you could start by being more selective about the nights you bang her.
Does that sound idiotic? That is how telling Vlad “Hey bro, I watch you on teevee a lot, change your hitting approach…” sounds… IDIOTIC.
by Rev Halofan on Jun 5, 2008 2:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Kobe
What about all those fans that for years said Kobe needed to take less shots and involve his team more?
He certainly did that this year (even though he had won championships in the past by doing so), and now they are playing for a championship again starting tonight.
Change is VITAL to having a long career. K-Rod for example when he threw 98 mph didn’t need a changeup. Now that he’s dropped a few mph he needed to add a change to give hitters something else to think about.
by MH252525 on Jun 5, 2008 7:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
More Passing does not equal Plate Approach
Seattle I would like to thank you for sucking. It allows me to get back to my roots: Hating Fremont.
by hauldog on Jun 5, 2008 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think all team sports including baseball involve a ton of change
In football if the other team is getting 5 yards per run then you put another guy in the box. If Kobe starts to go off then he can expect some double teams to get the ball out of his hand and force other players to make shots.
It’s the same in baseball. Hud talks about it all the time how baseball is a game of changes in approach. Jered Weaver came up and was lights out, hitters adjusted and so he has to make adjustments right back at them. Willits comes up and is pitched one way, he has success being ultra-selective, but then he has to become more aggressive when pitchers start throwing him get me over curves and fastball down the heart of the plate early in the count because they know he is selective.
With Vlad it is more complicated because as CJ says he does not have a typical skill set, however when things are not going his way (either due to injury, father time or a combination of the two) then he needs to alter his approach when he’s not getting anywhere near the results he would want. When he’s already one of the most aggressive hitters in the majors I doubt success will come from him being even more aggressive so I think he should probably be slightly more selective. All I’m saying is essentially what the Big Cat kept telling Vlad during his time with the Angels (based on what they said during the TV broadcasts) which is that when things aren’t going as well as you’d hope, take a few more pitches and be a bit more selective. Again I’m not saying he needs to become Mr. 100 walks a season, but for every hit he gets on a bad ball recently I could probably think of 5 times more when he rolls over and hits a grounder to SS.
by MH252525 on Jun 5, 2008 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
OH DEAR GOD LET ME GET THIS STRAIGHT
Since Kobe allegedly changed, your argument for change is solid, but with Vlad it is TOO complicated to hold you to a detailed explanation of what Vlad must change.
I am not buying what you are selling and it looks to me like you are waiting to make that purchase as well…
by Rev Halofan on Jun 5, 2008 3:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Vlad
I’m only saying Vlad is atypical in that he doesn’t need to become Reggie Willits at the plate. He can reach the outside corner better than anyone on the team and perhaps in baseball.
All I’m saying is, as Vlad’s ability to consistently hit bad pitches decreases, he must decrease his zone to pitches that he can drive.
The bottom line this year is that he is not getting results. You call it idiotic to say he needs to change, I think it could be called stubborn for someone to not get results and continue to do things the same way. Do you think Vlad is the same Vlad of the past? or is he in a 2 month slump with bad luck? If you do attribute it to bad luck then how long does a slump have to go for you to consider the thought that he needs to make some changes?
If he is just injured then I’d agree with you completely. I didn’t go around saying Tim Salmon needed to change his approach when he had a bum heel. It was clear he was hurt and that was the reason he was not producing. I think injury is part of Vlad’s season but I don’t think it is the sole reason.
by MH252525 on Jun 5, 2008 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Vlad is a freak, and nobody expects him to ever act like a normal player
His physical gifts are essentially incomparable, so he’s clearly not screwing himself by swinging at stuff other can’t hit…he can hit that stuff.
But what does Erstad have to gain from swinging at crap? Absolutely nothing.
This isn’t an argument for or against plate discipline…it’s just data that shows the differences in organizational philosophy between the Angels and the A’s in a simple way.
Northeastern University Huskies: Mediocre hockey, guaranteed.
by Carl Johnson on Jun 5, 2008 8:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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