AL WEST MATCHUPS - Revisited

by willamos2 on Jul 15, 2008 10:06 AM PDT Comment 94 comments

This is based on the current MLB team Page Depth Charts. Discuss it all in the Comments please.

TEAM	Angels	Athletics	Mariners	Rangers
C	Mathis	K. Suzuki	Clement	Saltalamacchia
1B	Kotchman	Barton	Cairo	C. Davis
2B	Kendrick	Ellis	Lopez	Kinsler
3B	Figgins	Hannahan	Beltre	Vazquez
SS	Izturis	Murphy	Betancourt	Young
LF	Anderson	E. Brown	Ibanez	Murphy
CF	Hunter	Sweeney	Bloomquist	M. Byrd
RF	Guerrero	Buck	I. Suzuki	Hamilton
DH	Matthews	Cust	Vidro	Bradley
Ace	Lackey	Blanton	F. Hernandez	Millwood
#2 Starter	Weaver	Gallagher	Washburn	Padilla
#3 Starter	Garland	Eveland	Silva	Hurley
#4 Starter	Saunders	Smith	Dickey	L. Mendoza
#5 Starter	Santana	Duchscherer	Rowland-Smith	Harrison
Setup	Speier	Embree	Lowe	E. Guardado
Closer	F. Rodriguez	Street	Morrow	C. Wilson

Here's the link to the same thread before the season started. Some of the comments left there seem pretty comical now (i.e. Kendrick over Kinsler, Guerrero over Bradley, Bedard as the best in the AL West, Putz over K-Rod, etc.).

http://www.halosheaven.com/2008/3/24/318300/story title

I did include Figgins as the 3B despite not being on the depth chart due to bereavement. I also replaced Harden with Gallagher in the A's rotation. I added Rowland-Smith as Seattle's 5th starter. I also pushed Hamilton to RF where he has been playing, moving Murphy to LF, and Byrd to CF. Lastly, I included Padilla and Hurley in the Rangers' rotation as they are set to start in the 1st series after the ASB.

My picks:

C A's

1B Angels

2B Rangers

SS Rangers

3B Rangers

LF Rangers

CF Angels

RF Rangers

DH Rangers

SP1 Angels

SP2 Angels

SP3 A's

SP4 Angels

SP5 Angels

Setup Angels

Closer Angels

This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.

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Comments

Uh....

Have you tried looking at Home/Away splits before you judge HK over Kinsler and Vlad over Bradley to be comical? Here are some numbers to chew on.

Road OPS

HK 881(despite being injured for part of the year)
Kinsler 897

Vlad 905
Bradley 866
Hamilton 769 (that REALLY shocked me)

Some other numbers
Catchers
Naps 875
Laird 862
Mathis 758
Salty 581

How about SS
Aybar 791
Young 715
Izturis 706

CI
Kotchman 799
Blalock 743

by MH252525 on Jul 15, 2008 10:30 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

i understand the value of looking at Road OPS

BUT, why not just look at OPS+ which would neutralize park effects rather than completely excluding half of the games? Or at least look at them in conjunction with Road OPS.

Kinsler 152
Kendrick 117

Vlad 121
Bradley 180
Hamilton 144

Napoli 106
Laird 114
Mathis 74
Saltalamacchia 76

Aybar 87
Young 109
Izturis 84

Kotchman 100
Blalock 121

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jul 15, 2008 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I understand OPS+

but in this case I think it’s understating the effect of playing in Texas.

Howie has an unadjusted OPS of 816, Laird’s unadjusted OPS is 797. So Howie is putting up better numbers despite playing half his games in Angels Stadium instead of Texas and his OPS+ is only 3 points higher than Lairds 117 to 114. I’m sorry that sounds just plain wrong to me.

by MH252525 on Jul 15, 2008 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

well, i don't think it's far enough off

to just completely disregard home games like they don’t exist.

For example, Eric Hinske has a .976 OPS on the road. Ignoring his .785 OPS at home is grossly overinflating his value. I understand what you’re trying to do by removing park effects, but I think OPS+ does that without eliminating data altogether.

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jul 15, 2008 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It is very far off.

Mostly due to overrating slugging in the calculation. It also uses BR’s park factors, which are generated using a pretty faulty measure.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 15, 2008 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

of course it is far off

it wouldn’t suit your argument otherwise. You’re right…let’s look only at road stats in a vacuum.

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jul 15, 2008 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also not a good idea.

Instead, we look at park factors by someone who knows what they are doing like so:

As we can see, Angel stadium is a much nastier place to try to hit than Rangers stadium.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 15, 2008 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Numbers above are from THT btw

Here’s the original article about it. The graphic was created by the guys at LL, distilled from the spreadsheet at the bottom of the article.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 15, 2008 3:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

i don't see that graphic

the spreadsheet doesn’t include the runs category that the graphic above does.

Plus, it’s get any relative perspective from the data. I mean, I can gather than 110 in HR for Texas means that they’re saying that park gives up more HR than Anaheim’s at 86, but what do those numbers really represent?

Also, couldn’t it be that Texas’ superior lineup (and lackluster pitching) just contributes to the runs in Texas, far more than the park itself. Texas DOES still lead the league in runs scored on the road.

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jul 15, 2008 6:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

should say

it’s (hard to) get any relative…

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jul 15, 2008 6:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Scroll down to see graphic in the topic.

Runs were derived using batted balls to runs by Dave Cameron.

And sure, Texas has a great offense this year. But not as good as the one they appear to have. Likewise, the Angels offense is better than they appear to be. The pitching trends the opposite way. All of our pitchers are helped by this.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 15, 2008 11:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

check this out

found this interesting and up to date this AM:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/dialed_in/discussion/american_league_leaders_at_the_all_star_break_offense_plus_defense/

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jul 16, 2008 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That is pretty interesting

I hadn’t realized Aybar was that offensively valuable. Not sure I agree with Kotch and Howie’s defense ratings, but eh.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 16, 2008 7:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Young, Danks and Volquez are really nice starters

Oops they traded them.

Seattle I would like to thank you for sucking. It allows me to get back to my roots: Hating Fremont.

Kobe tell me how my ass tastes

by hauldog on Jul 15, 2008 10:52 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

meh

I’d still take Hamilton over Volquez. Volquez is falling back to earth (4.00 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in last 7 starts).

Young and Danks appear to be boneheaded moves, but every GM makes them from time to time. You have GMJ to remind you every day.

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jul 15, 2008 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

GMJ does not cost us the most valuable resource in baseball pitching. Something the Rangers sorely lack

Seattle I would like to thank you for sucking. It allows me to get back to my roots: Hating Fremont.

Kobe tell me how my ass tastes

by hauldog on Jul 15, 2008 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Funny how...

You could look at the thread above and still want Hamilton. I would take Volquez any day. They have the best lineup in baseball and sit in third place in their division.

Texas keeps doing us favors by building up their lineup and I can’t figure out why.

by Wytelitning on Jul 15, 2008 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

i think you guys may be giving Volquez

a bit too much credit. He’s had a terrific start to the season with a bit of a slip into mediocrity. I don’t think he’s the next Pedro Martinez. He’ll probably be an above-average pitcher LT in the NL, but I don’t think he’s winning any Cy Youngs or anything.

Of the two, I just think that a special player like Josh Hamilton has a much better chance of keeping up the pace he’s on.

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jul 15, 2008 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just out of curiosity a 4.00 ERA is mediocre?

Nice cherry picking of “is he is last x starts” BTW.

Volquez is a 24 year old strikeout pitcher with ground ball tendencies. He is exactly what the Rangers should be developing not trading away. Also GABP is a bandbox.

Hamilton has serious durability issues. He is not a sure thing. I really am pulling for him though.

Seattle I would like to thank you for sucking. It allows me to get back to my roots: Hating Fremont.

Kobe tell me how my ass tastes

by hauldog on Jul 15, 2008 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

it was the combination of the 4.00 ERA and 1.38 WHIP

yet you cherry-pick just the ERA and then call me out for cherry-picking? I would say a 4.00 ERA is above average, and the WHIP is below average. Combining the two to simplify, he’s been headed towards mediocrity in the last few weeks. Would I, as a Ranger fan, welcome mediocrity at this point in my pitching staff? Sure, but not at the expense of a star like Hamilton. Maybe I’m wrong about Volquez…we’ll see. I’m not saying he’s a bum – just saying that I think Hamilton has a better chance of staying at the top.

He’s 25, not 24.

You may say he has durability issues, but you could also play devil’s advocate and say that he hasn’t played a ton of baseball for a 27-year old. He could age fairly well, and being in the AL, he can be treated with kid gloves by sticking him at DH whenever he needs some rest.

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jul 15, 2008 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Addicts tend to age well no?

Again I am rooting for this kid.

Volquez went 7 strong in his last start. I am not saying he is going to win a Cy Young this year but saying he is trending based on 4 starts seems to be a bit rash.

Seattle I would like to thank you for sucking. It allows me to get back to my roots: Hating Fremont.

Kobe tell me how my ass tastes

by hauldog on Jul 15, 2008 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

a 4.00 ERA over 7 starts is called cherry picking

especially when he’s doing it in a ballpark with an average ERA over 4.50, which would make his ERA+ somewhere around 113 or 114.

To weaken your argument even more so, his ERA may be 4.00 in his last 7 starts (actually, to be fair, it’s 4.01), but in SIX of his last seven starts it is only 3.29. See how much one start can slant your stats unfairly?

The guy’s ERA+ is fucking 195, for God’s sake. He’s 12-3. He strikes out more than a batter an inning. Texas, for as long as I can remember, has done the same stupid bullshit every year…bringing in offense at the expense of yet more pitching. It’s like the people in the front office have never read a history book in their lives, and don’t know how to learn from mistakes. A legacy dating back to the long forgotten days of Chan Ho Park’s contract that makes GMJ’s look like a steal. The Rangers without Hamilton are still a powerhouse of an offense. The Rangers without Volquez, however, are one of the shittiest rotations in baseball.

And if you really want to nitpick, this is considered Volquez’s “age 24” season since he just turned 25 a week or so ago, and played more than half the season at 24.

by Caseys Kiss of Death on Jul 15, 2008 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

i didn't say he sucks...good lord

but even an ERA+ of 113 or 114 is “approaching mediocrity” (which is what I said) when you compare it to the Cy Young start that he got.

I just have a feeling that this streak of Volquez will be somewhat closer to what we’ll see from him long-term than what we saw earlier this season. I’m sure Cincy will welcome that (as would have Texas), but I think Hamilton has a better chance to keep up his elite production.

Even if Texas does need pitching, which there is no disputing that, I would still rather have an elite hitter like Hamilton than a guy who I think will just be above average long-term.

Again, just my opinion and only time will tell.

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jul 15, 2008 6:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

113 or 114 ERA+ is hardly mediocre

but aside from that, your arbitrary sample of 7 game started with a 4.01ERA is extremely skewed, as I already said. It’s all really just a product of ONE bad start in a set of seven. Outside of that, as stated, his ERA is 3.29. That’s ace-calibur…and while pitching in one of baseball’s most hitter friendly park.

Meanwhile, Hamilton, while a monster, is doing the VAST majority of his OPS damage at hitter-friendly home. On the road, his OPS is almost pedestrian.

Volquez was an elite level talent, and so is Hamilton. But you can’t point out 7 mediocre starts (which, as I’ve shown is actually ONE bad start in seven), and use that as proof of some kind of non-existent regression. It boils down to this as of right now: Volquez is to pitching what Hamilton is to hitting, in the worst case scenario for Volquez.

So the question is what does Texas need more: pitching or hitting?

For that, I defer to your insistence that “there is no disputing that.”

by Caseys Kiss of Death on Jul 15, 2008 7:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

the Rangers have an OPS

on the road that is 2nd in the AL (also #1 in runs scored on the road). This “the Rangers’ offense is only outstanding because they play at home” nonsense needs to stop.

Even if you want to “exclude” Volquez’ 1 bad start (which I’m noticing you guys like to do a lot around here such as excluding home stats), he’s got a 1.31 WHIP in those other 6 starts. Decent? Of course, especially at a hitter’s ballpark.

Anything remarkable though? Probably not.

Obviously, elite pitchers are at a premium compared to elite hitters, but you can’t sit here and tell me that you wouldn’t trade Jered Weaver for Grady Sizemore (notwithstanding the fact that the Angels have other good pitchers already).

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jul 16, 2008 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He is in his age 24 season those stats show a lot of promise for growth

Seattle I would like to thank you for sucking. It allows me to get back to my roots: Hating Fremont.

Kobe tell me how my ass tastes

by hauldog on Jul 16, 2008 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

How is me excluding 1 start out of the seven game set

any less bullshit than you only counting that seven game set to begin with?

And show me the part where I said the Rangers offense is only good because it plays in Texas, please. I must have missed it. When I point out that HAMILTON’S OPS differential is substantial, it’s rather inane for you to come back at me with a claim that I was somehow saying ALL of Texas is doing likewise.

I can win an argument by building strawmen, too. But I don’t.

by Caseys Kiss of Death on Jul 17, 2008 1:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

because you are excluding something from

a trend (or a streak of games). You can’t deny that his ERA has increased by about a run in the last 7 games. Since, it went up in each of those games except the last, I would call it a trend.

I’m just predicting that we will see more of this in the future than the mid-1 ERA we saw for the first two months of the season. Will Cincy still be pleased with that? Of course.

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jul 17, 2008 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Excluding from a trend?

Listen chumly…you take that one start out, and you have 6 of 7 starts of a low 3.00ERA. That’s on-par with a plethora of aces in baseball…and FAR better than any one pitcher in the Rangers’ rotation right now. Without that ONE start inflating the entire set of seven starts, there IS no freakin’ trend. The weight of that entire so-called trend is based on the inflation of one freakin’ start.

And where exactly did you become the statistical authority on trends? Why stop at his last 7 starts. Could it be because if we include that 8th start, we get a complete game shut out?

That’s what makes this cherry-picking. You can set your own arbitrary start-and-end points to construct whatever picture you want.

And no one in their right mind said that the guy would be a mid-1.00ERA pitcher in their future. Hell, no one came within 30 miles of implying it. If your so-called trend is even remotely true, and we can expect a 3.40ERA from the guy in the future (with the ability to build off that as he enters his prime), then the Reds are gonna be more than “happy” to have it on their team…they’ll be fucking ELATED that they have a bonafied ACE anchoring their rotation who, for the stadium he pitches in (a damn bandbox), is gonna be putting up 145 – 150 ERA+.

And again, the difference between Volquez and your next best starting pitcher is a mile further apart than the difference between Hamilton and your next best hitter…especially considering Hamilton might not even be your best.

Your offense without Hamilton would perform well above league average, and still put up 5 or more runs a game.

Volquez would, on the other hand, step into a rotation SO unstable that only two men pitching in it qualify for an ERA title…and neither has an ERA under 4.60.

And since it bears repeating…Hamilton puts up his monster numbers largely because of the park he plays in (much lower road numbers), while Volquez puts up his monster numbers IN SPITE of the park working against him.

by Caseys Kiss of Death on Jul 17, 2008 8:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Forgot to say

enjoy your 29th ranked ERA in baseball.

by Caseys Kiss of Death on Jul 17, 2008 8:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

OMT

He also has what is widely regarded as the best changeup in baseball

Seattle I would like to thank you for sucking. It allows me to get back to my roots: Hating Fremont.

Kobe tell me how my ass tastes

by hauldog on Jul 15, 2008 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

how about not filing your paperwork

and losing a solid pitching prospect like Madrigal for nothing? If that doesn’t qualify as a boneheaded move (related to pitching), I’m not sure what does.

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jul 15, 2008 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That was pretty bad.

I was pissed off.

Seattle I would like to thank you for sucking. It allows me to get back to my roots: Hating Fremont.

Kobe tell me how my ass tastes

by hauldog on Jul 15, 2008 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice to see you guys come out of the woodwork...

now that your team is on a little hot streak and your boy broke out the tissues last night in a tear-jerker.

(sprays anti-Rangers-fan formula RAID)

Shew, shew!

;)

by Downing Rules on Jul 15, 2008 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

In typical Ranger fashion......

Hamilton faded in the 2nd half when it mattered most

by MH252525 on Jul 15, 2008 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would say that what mattered most

is that Hamilton will be remembered in relation to the HR derby moreso than Morneau.

In reality though, nothing really “matters” in relation to a HR derby.

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jul 15, 2008 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Of course it doesn't matter when you lose it ;)

by MH252525 on Jul 15, 2008 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Since when does it matter if you when it, either?

Nobody cares either way. It’s the HR derby.

Willits needs to play, every, single, freaking, day. Now.

by 101halo on Jul 15, 2008 11:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know about "little hot streak"

43-30 since April 24 (Angels are 43-29 since then) seems like more than that.

Still, it’s too little too late even as impressive as it is for a team that was widely picked to be last and far below .500. Even if Texas can keep up the pace, it won’t matter this season.

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jul 15, 2008 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the bigger surprise is Seattle's toilet trip...

by Downing Rules on Jul 15, 2008 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey, wow, you can cherry pick a date to make Texas look good.

Let’s see if I can do the same thing and make them look worse.

Starting May 18th, the Rangers are 28-24, while the Angels are 32 and 17.

See how easy that is?

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 15, 2008 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

i'm cool with that

28-24 doesn’t make me feel bad at all.

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jul 15, 2008 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

32 and 17 makes me feel better.

Glad we’re both happy.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 15, 2008 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

exceeding expectations

I can’t say that I expected Texas to be above .500 at this point. The fact that they are doing it with so many young players contributing gets me excited for the future.

It was a given that the Angels were going to win the division this year (at least in my mind).

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jul 15, 2008 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It was a given in 2004 too.

I’m pretty sure you guys still took a shot at us though.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 15, 2008 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

sure,

but as realistic fans, I think most Ranger fans would have conceded that they were not the favorites.

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jul 15, 2008 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

When did being the favorites have anything to do with it?

Seattle was the “favorite” post-Bedard trade and Lackey/Escobar injuries. Did it matter? No.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 15, 2008 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would hardly consider pundit predictions to be a fair barometer to weigh success against

those guys are more full of shit than a Red Sox fan…which many of them seem to be.

They also picked Seattle to win the division, when everyone and their damn mother knew they sucked, and overplayed last year…suddenly they become division favorites because they picked up an injury prone starter who pitched 3/4ths of a Cy Young year, and a #5 starter with a career BAA over .300?

by Caseys Kiss of Death on Jul 15, 2008 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

i couldn’t believe some were picking Seattle…their lineup is and was godawful.

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jul 15, 2008 6:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Or how about getting into a bidding war with yourself

and sign A-Rod to a 10-year $252 million. Then after 3 straight last place finishes, trade him for Alfonso Soriano AND agree to pay the Yankees $9 million/year to cover part of A-Rod’s salary. Then trade Soriano for Brad Wilkerson, Terrmel Sledge and Armando Galarraga. Then trade Galarraga to the Tigers (now their best starter: 93 IP, 3.27 ERA) for Michael Hernandez (minors).

Ain't no stoppin' us now. We got the groove!

by Fan Since 1981 on Jul 15, 2008 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

And have Anal Hersheister be your pitching coach...

ouch.

by Downing Rules on Jul 15, 2008 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Panther!

by MH252525 on Jul 15, 2008 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is there ANY good pitching prospect they haven't had their hands on at some point?

It seems like the answer is no.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 15, 2008 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Solid pitching prospect?"

Just like Turnbow (whoops, he sucks), Jenks (wait, isn’t he down for the season) and Gregg (how many blown saves does he have again?)

Losing a reliever, while not a good move, is not the same as losing a starter. Texas’ inability to figure that out is why they traded Young for Otsuka.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 15, 2008 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

would you rather lose Santana or K-Rod?

maybe that’s a good question. A solid closer shouldn’t be underestimated, and from what I’ve read and seen, Madrigal is being groomed as the eventual closer.

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jul 15, 2008 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

All of the other guys I named are closers (or were)

on other teams. That was my point. At this moment, K-Rod is more immediately replaceable in that we have Arredondo to close, while Nick Adenhart is not ready for Prime Time. But comparing K-Rod to Madrigal is a little off base. K-Rod is the best closer in baseball over the last 4 years. Madrigal is a guy who was relieving in single A last year.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 15, 2008 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

K-Rod:Angels Starting Pitching::Madrigal:Rangers Starting Pitching?

by TheTypingFiend on Jul 15, 2008 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

i think it was pretty obvious that I was speaking

prospectively.

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jul 15, 2008 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

So was I originally.

When I said starters > relievers in the minor leagues. You brought the real world into it, and I pointed out that there’s a difference between the best closer in baseball and a minor league reliever. The Angels have lost any number of good relievers to other teams. We’ve kept all the starters though, and that is the main reason we are winning the division right now.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 15, 2008 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is Speier really listed as our setup man?

Angels fan since '67

by red floyd on Jul 15, 2008 12:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

yeah, i probably should have included Shields

but technically Speier is listed and since the original thread used him as well, I figured I’d just leave it. Either way, the Angels’ bullpen is the class of the division and the AL.

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jul 15, 2008 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

They also seem to have missed GMJ being benched for Rivera.

Our DH just became the best of the bunch.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 15, 2008 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

better than Bradley?

really?

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jul 15, 2008 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would agree with you. Bradley is nails. Fragile nails but nails.

Seattle I would like to thank you for sucking. It allows me to get back to my roots: Hating Fremont.

Kobe tell me how my ass tastes

by hauldog on Jul 15, 2008 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Better

if you believe that Bradley will do what he always does eventually: get hurt & go crazy, in no particular order. Bradley’s a better hitter, but not if he’s unable to play due to injury and/or insanity. He’s a time bomb.

by jjackflash on Jul 15, 2008 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure Bradley IS a better hitter outside of Arlington though.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 15, 2008 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Petco disagrees with you

Seattle I would like to thank you for sucking. It allows me to get back to my roots: Hating Fremont.

Kobe tell me how my ass tastes

by hauldog on Jul 15, 2008 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

44 ABs

I’m very unimpressed with your small sample size.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 15, 2008 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry, 144.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 15, 2008 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rivera's last full season-

.310 .362 .525 in 06. Adjust that for park difference and yes, I take Rivera over Bradley.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 15, 2008 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He has cooler hair.

by TheTypingFiend on Jul 15, 2008 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He killed for the Padres last year

Seattle I would like to thank you for sucking. It allows me to get back to my roots: Hating Fremont.

Kobe tell me how my ass tastes

by hauldog on Jul 15, 2008 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

See above.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 15, 2008 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

well, this may be the first thing in the thread that I would have to say

“you are nuts” about. I’m well aware of Bradley’s fragile nature and ability to blow up. I think he’s on a team now that somewhat grounds him, but I’ll admit the threat is always there.

btw, since when is Rivera’s health just a slam dunk non-issue?

Milton’s leading the AL in OBP and SLG. It’s really not even close unless you start talking about hypotheticals.

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jul 15, 2008 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can't count how many teams have, at some point said

“I think he’s on a team now that somewhat grounds him.”

Wait, I can count how many. It’s six.

Coincidentally, the exact number of teams he’s played for. Go figure.

by Caseys Kiss of Death on Jul 15, 2008 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

yea seriously

I was hearing that today about Ron Washington. I mean I don’t know who his other managers were but if he feel apart under Bud Black then the dude has issues. Even THIS year he almost got into an altercation with a broadcaster.

by MH252525 on Jul 15, 2008 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

i don't ever remember

seeing Milton Bradley bond with teammates like he has in Texas. He always seemed to be out on an island in CLE, MON, LA, OAK, and SD. In Texas, his teammates actually stick up for him.

It also helps that the DFW media is extremely lax in terms of focusing on negative stories.

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jul 15, 2008 6:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Uh...Nick Swisher would like a word with you...

he was a visitor to “Bradley Island” according to many of my A’s-following friends.

by Downing Rules on Jul 16, 2008 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rivera's only significant injury was a freak accident in Winter ball.

His lack of playing time has much more to do with management blind spots.

And yeah, Milton is leading the AL in bunch of stats. He’s also playing in the launch pad known as Arlington. Having a good year? Absolutely. He’s having a great season. Is he the best hitter in the AL? I kind of doubt it.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 15, 2008 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

you're still saying that an average player

at best, who has one good season to his name, is better than a player who has consistently been productive thoughout his career and whose only flaws are things that happen outside of the game itself.

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that even Juan Rivera would pick Milton Bradley over himself.

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jul 15, 2008 6:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Outside the game itself?

Both throwing the bottle at the fan and arguing with the ump were during the course of the game. And yes, we would take Rivera over Bradley…just like we dropped Guillen like a bad habit when he went off the deep end.

by HungryHunter on Jul 15, 2008 10:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you're talking about the San Diego thing

where Bradley got hurt arguing with the ump, that is one of the few times I’d actually take Bradley’s side. The umpire was trying to provoke him and overstepped his bounds.

by Caseys Kiss of Death on Jul 15, 2008 10:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

this is what is shocking to me

that people blast Bradley for throwing a bottle at a fan when the fan threw the bottle at Bradley. I actually think he’s to be applauded for not just decking the guy.

I’m really hoping you guys are just being sarcastic about taking Rivera over Bradley.

And, I meant “outside the game” as in weaknesses related to the actual game of baseball (i.e. can’t hit a curve, slow, etc.).

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jul 16, 2008 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

We're not.

Though I could understand why you’d think so. There’s no reason you have to accept our evaluation of Bradley and Rivera’s true talent levels. But my evaluation remains as is.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 16, 2008 7:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

cool

take it easy, guys

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jul 16, 2008 7:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't even try defending the bottle-throwing incident

and don’t try to put the actions of a player versus the actions of a drunken “fan” on the same level. I don’t even know where to start with that nonsense.

by Caseys Kiss of Death on Jul 17, 2008 1:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

i just did

if you want to attack a player for throwing something, look at Frank Francisco. Bradley just slammed the bottle at the fan’s feet. What is so “out of control” about that? When fans act like animals, they should be treated like animals.

If he had thrown the bottle at the fan, that would be entirely different.

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jul 17, 2008 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

His inability to walk away at time when he was already under fire for attitude problems speaks volumes

Seattle I would like to thank you for sucking. It allows me to get back to my roots: Hating Fremont.

Kobe tell me how my ass tastes

by hauldog on Jul 17, 2008 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

What's so wrong with it?

The fact that he’s a grown-up, 30 year old man. Walking away from the incident is the easiest thing in the world to do…it requires the least effort, and shows the most maturity. He’s a fucking major league baseball player…if he can’t deal with hecklers, and the occasional item tossed his way, then he needs to grow the fuck up. How many thousands of times have players had things hurled at them without them lashing out the way Bradley did? Real fucking men put themselves above petty, babyish lashing-outs. He looked like a petulant little brat. And what did he get from it? A minor amount of smug self-satisfaction out of knowing that he “showed that drunk?”

If the guy was on the Angels right now, you’d go out of your way to point out the incident….and as hauldog said, if it was an isolated incident, it would be a LITTLE easier to ignore.

by Caseys Kiss of Death on Jul 17, 2008 8:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

An .802 career OPS, an average player?

Milton’s is… what, .823? Doesn’t seem like much of a difference to me.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 17, 2008 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

ranger fan and i just want to make a couple points

Not going to troll over here and try to say X player is better than Y player and what not, im just trying to make a couple points so please dont jump on me because im a texas fan.

It should be considered that the rangers play a disproportionately high number of their road games against the al west (obviously). Thats 3 pitchers parks, and 2 really good staffs, and the rangers caught felix/bedard constantly in their seattle games.

Additionally, you cant just assume that every point of a home/road split is just because of their home park. For one thing, baseball as a whole has a .025 to .050 higher ops at home almost every year. Every team hits a little better at home for whatever reason. Just a small contributing factor, but there are quite a few such factors I believe cause people to weigh too much into the rangers road splits.

Even in notorious pitchers parks there we be the occasional huge split favoring home batters. Some of these numbers just have a certain random element of when the guy got in a real legit hot streak and what not. I havnt looked at it lately, but there was a point earlier in the year where hamilton had struck out over twice as many times on the road and walked far more at home. Such numbers indicate just a flat out superior performance on at home, which is then aided even more by the park. Unless you can explain to me why someone would strike out half as often in a hitters park.

If you look at yearly ops stats, you will find the rangers team ops to average around .080 points higher at home (with the entire league generally around .030 higher). Its obviously an advantage, it would be stupid to claim otherwise, but not the ridiculous monstrous scrub to superstar advantage some people try to assume.

And hey, if you are going to try to suggest arlington grants some .350 ops advantage, then i guess our pitching isnt nearly as bad as suggested, eh?

the preceding post is not nearly as negative or insulting as you think it is

by DSheppard on Jul 17, 2008 1:37 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't think that we are.

First off, there’s also that Angels Stadium is a pitchers park, which, to use your general estimate, takes maybe .020-.030 points off your total OPS, depending on what kind of hitter you are (homerun hitters are affected most, as I showed up above, though guys with warning track power in Anaheim could become homerun hitters in Arlington). So between your estimate of about a .040 point boost and my estimate of .030 point deficit, you get about a .070 point boost in total OPS going from Angel Stadium to Arlington. That boost turns Howie Kendrick into a nearly .900 OPS guy, close enough to Kinsler’s current numbers that his better defense starts to become a factor in determining who is the better player. Then you have to take seasonal variation into account, and figure out if a guy is really as good as his numbers suggest, or better, or worse or what have you.

Bottom line is that it’s not JUST the advantage Arlington gives that we are factoring in mentally, but the disadvantage that OUR home park is conferring.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 17, 2008 8:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

seems hard to believe

when Angels batters have a near identical home/road split (708/705) in OPS.

Also, the Angels home ERA is 4.23, compared to their road ERA of 3.45.

Sample size issue? Tough to say…

the ERA from 2007 was more flip-flopped (3.85 at home with 4.63 on the road), but the OPS at home was .812, compared to .712 on the road.

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jul 17, 2008 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

And that was the point of the big chart I posted a little farther up.

Home/Road splits for any given year can be skewed by a number of factors. You have to regress the data, looking for reasons why certain things are that way. For instance, the fact that Chris Bootcheck, Dustin Moseley, and Nick Adenhart pitched a majority of their innings at home skews the data on our home-road splits because they are much worse than our other pitchers. Despite the low season-wide impact of their numbers, the enormous outlier they represent skews the data toward an untrue outcome.

In the same way, the fact that Brandon Wood and Sean Rodriguez saw more play-time in away parks has brought those numbers down. (Though I’ll point out that the other Texas guy already said that league average had home splits up .030 OPS points. If ours are even right now, that would seem to indicate that the park is doing something to them).

The study by THT that I linked attempts to account for such things through regression analysis and data manipulation. The numbers on the chart are the result.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 17, 2008 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs