Life of a Closer.....Not so Long??
by Angel Aviator on Jul 23, 2008 12:29 AM PDT
58 comments
F-Rod has been in exactly 13 games in the month of April and May and 12 in June. So far he has 10 this month with 9 days left in July. So with that math he has say another 25-30 appearances. Lets remember that there is not only physical strain involved with pitching, but also it is mentally taxing as well when your out there each night saving games. It's funny how nobody ever talks about how Thigpen was never the same pitcher after the year he racked up all those saves.
Thigpen was 26 yrs old (same as Frankie) when he saved 57 games throwing 88 2/3 innings. I remember playing golf with him in Texas during the 1991season and he talked about how it hurt to just swing the golf club. Thigpen would play 4 more years never saving more then 30 in any season, and during those 4 years he would not reach his one season total if you added up the 4 year totals after the 57 save season season.
If you take a look at the all time single season save leaders not many have gone on to have a lot of success after saving so many games. Gagne had 52 and 55 saves the following year, but was never the same (steroids).
Smoltz had 55 saves in 2002 on a new arm, but would soon find himself back on the slab with arm issues.
Trevor Hoffman had surgery at the end of the 1995 season, and would save 53 gms in 1998 only to have more surgery that cost him the 2003 season.
Randy Myers saved 53 games in 93 then a National League record. The following year he would pitch 40 1/3 innings with 32 K's. He would later have surgery on his rotator cuff ending his career after the 1998 season.
Mariano Rivera had Tommy John surgery before his career even really got started, and there isn't a lot of players that have had that surgery, and ended up having to have more arm surgery later. Of course there is always those that say Rivera was a user at times to help heal.
Pettitte/Giambi/Clemens shared that same locker room........who knows.
Rod Beck saved 51 gms in 1998. He would be traded less then a season later totaling 44 innings pitched in 1999 with 10 saves. Beck would go on to have Tommy John surgery after the 2001 season, retiring just 5 short season after saving 51 gms. In those 5 seasons he would avg. just about 45 innings and 7 saves. One season of 20 saves.
Dennis Eckersley's numbers slipped noticeably following the 1992 season when he saved 51 gms. although Eckersley still was among the league leaders in saves, his ERA climbed sharply, and his number of saves never climbed above 36.
Francisco Cordero would save 49 gms in 2004 only to be removed as the closer in early 2006, and later traded for Carlos Lee and Nelson Cruz.
Jeff Shaw would save 48 gms for the Reds/Dodgers in 1998. The Dodgers would give up Paul Konerko in order to acquire Shaw and the 25 saves he would log for them. Shaw would pitch for another 3 years before calling it a career.
Armando Benitez had 47 saves in 2004 and has been a mess since then with numerous injuries and recording just 45 saves since that 2004 season never pitching more then 50 innings in any season since.
Chad Cordero recorded 47 saves in 2005 and has pitched just over 150 inning since (320+ inning in his 6 yr. career). He is currently recovering from labrum surgery after pitching through shoulder fatigue for most of the 2007 season.
Looking at how the Angels have run Frankie out there the last few years, and the amount he has worked one has to think that maybe the front office brass is saying out loud that Frankie will not be an Angel in 2009. After all the shelf life of a relief pitcher isn't that long when they have been pushed for a few years.
Just a observation.............
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Let Frankie
Pitch for the next four years in a Halos uniform and let the next team worry about what he’ll do in his 30s.
by BBFan1 on Jul 23, 2008 12:32 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Most of those pitchers were fairly old during their so-called big seasons
With few exceptions, all were at or above 30 years old when they had notable declines.
But the one thing you’re missing about K-Rod this year is that he isn’t like those other guys. He’s only on pace for about 70IP, which is pretty standard for any closer. He’s never been used in the 8th inning this year, so the save record is being approached without any extra taxing on his arm.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Jul 23, 2008 12:50 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Relief
Beck had a total of 461 innings pitched by age 28 prior to his 51 save season at age 29
Gagne had totaled 447+ innings by the age of 27 saving 52 at age 26 and 55 at age 27
After 1998 season (53 save season) Hoffman had loged 442 total innings pitched. He may have been 30 but it was only his 6th year pitching as he had been a bad hitting minor league SS until the 1992 season season.
We have all agreed at some point that the violent delivery of F-Rod can be a little more taxing then some of the above mentioned names. I will point out that B. Thigpen had totaled 380+ innings after his 57 save season where Frankie has thrown 428+ innings to date.
Willie Mays Aikens is FREeeeeeeee
by Angel Aviator on Jul 23, 2008 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It seems like it should be more taxing
yet he has already thrown more innings than Thigpen without arm trouble. Gagne had spent two years as a spot-starter/reliever before becoming a closer and threw 82 innings out of the pen for three consecutive years before his arm blew up. They really started abusing him the final year by having him throw more than one inning quite often.
Then there’s guys like Rivera, Percival, Nen, Wagner, Hoffman who all last into their 30’s before arm trouble.
Hoffman’s surgery in ‘95 was fairly minor. He pitched 55 innings that year and came back in ‘96 for 88.
Goose Gossage threw 130 innings in back-to-back years at ages 25 and 26, still came back for 60 the next year.
Eckersley was 37 when he put up 50 saves.
K-Rod put up 47 saves in 2006. 2 years, 80 saves and 110 innings later, he is still pitching, no arm trouble to speak of.
~Till the Halo burns out...
by Zu Long on Jul 23, 2008 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Closer Role
Hoffman’s surgery was by no mean minor. Rotator cuff surgery and minor have never been used in the same sentence until your last post. He did learn the pitch because of the injury during that season though. I know both T Hoff and Robb Nen well having played with and against both. As for Nen he was a guy that was drafted after playing SS and 3rd in high school (Los Alamitos). Robb had surgery in the minor leagues and was always wild. One of the reasons he was moved to the bullpen like F-Rod was to cut down on the arm injuries. Not the first guy to have that done. Just ask Kelvim Escobar.
As for the Eck and Gossage thing that was another time long ago when guys threw 250+innings with 4 man rotations. There was no such thing as a QS when going 6 and allowing less then 3 runs. Complete games were the norm and not the unusual. Hell Ryan had 299 innings pitched one year and that was only good for 3rd place.
Willie Mays Aikens is FREeeeeeeee
by Angel Aviator on Jul 23, 2008 9:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rotator cuff surgery varies in severity.
I’m pretty sure the article talking about Escobar’s surgery said it could be major or minor depending on what they find when they go in. Robb Nen having surgery in the minors and going on to rack up 300 saves seems to be evidence that minor league injuries need not stop you from pitching into your thirties as a closer.
As for Eckersley YOU brought him up, and Gossage somehow played straight through the 70s and 80s and was still around in the early 90s, so he’s just as relavent as Eckersley, perhaps moreso since the majority of his career was as a reliever rather than a starter.
Funny you should mention Ryan, given that this whole argument is pretty similar to the one that declared we should let HIM go do to injury concerns.
~Till the Halo burns out...
by Zu Long on Jul 23, 2008 9:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Express
We all know the famous line about getting 2 .500 pitchers, but it was in reference to money more then anything. Ryan had 12 more wins then loss after leaving the Angels. Now I am as big a fan of Ryan as there is. Heck he is the reason I am a fan of this club. I know what he did better then anyone after he left and was sick when he did leave. Proud to say I was there in Texas the day he was charged by Robin Ventura and was thrilled the day I was invited to eat lunch with him in Austin years ago.
Minor league surgeries are less threating then when they happen in the bigs. One is nobody cares about wins and losses in the minors to be honest. The other reason is the player is young and has a better chance of recovering because age is on his side.
Held a open tryout one year in Vegas, and had a kid tryout as a catcher. He tossed some 1.87-1.92 to 2nd. We all looked at one another wondering why this 6’4 200 lbs kid had not been drafted. Once he said he was from Bakersfield JC it made a little more since. When I threw BP to the kid I could not hit his bat for shit. Now I knew why he was not a guy drafted. I asked if he had ever pitched and he said yeah in Pony League. I asked him if he wanted to get out on the main diamond and throw he said he would give it a shot. Well he started throwing and it was hard. I got the gun out and he was hitting 95 after 10-12 pitches. He reached as high as 97 and we said STOP!! I talked to him and asked why he never threw at Bake JC. His exact words were ” I just had Tommy John Surgery last year and had to red shirt” This was the summer of 1998. In 1999 he was the 38th pick in the nation reaching the bigs in 3 short years. Of course we all know the Jim Morris story as well. These are the reasons I use the new arm.
Willie Mays Aikens is FREeeeeeeee
by Angel Aviator on Jul 23, 2008 9:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Except that even with his minor league injuries K-Rod didn't have any surgery.
Since becoming a reliever for us he has not shown a twinge of an arm problem. He’s been on the DL all of once since we made him closer.
Everyone bases his “arm exploding” thing on that delivery, which is kinda bogus since that sort of delivery comes down through the ball nearly straight-armed with a single angle of rotation for his shoulder. Most of the power comes out of his legs and from gravity, and he gets the break from his wrists. As wild as it looks, that delivery probably puts less stress on his shoulder and certainly on his elbow than your typical 3/4 arm slot.
~Till the Halo burns out...
by Zu Long on Jul 23, 2008 10:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Violent
There is a lot of violence with the delivery. Old saying in the scouting world is this. If it works then it is deception. If he is getting hit it is bad mechanics. I am sure you understand that. With that said though there is a lot of violence and it is to the shoulder and arm as well as the way he lands. No suprise with the ankle, and I am sure there will be hip issues as well. Most guys in your term come down through the ball. Not a lot of uphill throwers that make it to the bigs. He has a tendency to run away from his arm prior to release. He will wrap it and lead with elbow as well.
Willie Mays Aikens is FREeeeeeeee
by Angel Aviator on Jul 23, 2008 10:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not a lot of uphill throwers but most guys come down and across
Frankie pulls it straight down, like a side-arm guy turned 90 degrees. Because of the fact that he’s pulling down and letting gravity help rather than fighting to keep it parallel, it puts less stress on his elbow and shoulder than a side-arm guy does. His hips don’t actually move all that much in relation to his body and as long as he doesn’t build up too much more weight (something he needs to watch) he should be okay.
It’s a lot like a martial arts move really- it LOOKS really wild and violent but there’s a lot of control and grace behind it. There’s a lot of moving parts, but nothing gets wrenched at any point in that delivery.
~Till the Halo burns out...
by Zu Long on Jul 23, 2008 11:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't even mention Gagne in the equation
he was a cheating, roid user.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Jul 23, 2008 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I had been wondering about this
I had noticed that most big time closers don’t last but this is fairly disturbing. I would like to see Frankie stay with the Angels but I certainly understand management’s hesitation (Especially knowing this now).
by Rhapsode on Jul 23, 2008 12:53 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
They had a little program after the game tonight on FSN West about Jose Arredondo.
Scioscia was on it talking about how much confidence he had in Jose. The most telling thing was he said, “Jose is never afraid when he is out on the mound, and showing no fear in these high pressure situations tells me a lot about a pitcher because that is the most important thing they must have in closing situations besides the ability to pitch.”
I’m beginning to believe Jose Arredondo is already our 2009 closer.
by 44FAN on Jul 23, 2008 1:01 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
So what youa re saying is...
that if Shields had been getting SAVES instead of HOLDS all these years his arm would have already fallen off?
Half-kidding of course, but you did leave out Troy Percival.
by Rev Halofan on Jul 23, 2008 1:22 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Also left out Wagner and Robb Nen
Thing is in any career of sufficient length, be it pitcher or position player, you will almost always acquire a significant injury. That’s just how the game works. Guys like a Maddux or a Cal Ripken Jr are extremely rare.
~Till the Halo burns out...
by Zu Long on Jul 23, 2008 9:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Effective?
Shields has in the last 2 years has been a little less effective then the years prior. Last year might have been his toughest year to date for Shields, and he had logged lots of innings up until then. 493 some innings prior to the 2007 campaign.
I left off Percy only because of us all knowing how he battled through injuries at times, and he only threw 70+ innings 2 times in his career, and that was the first 2 seasons in the big leagues. He never threw more then 66 2/3 innings in any single season and that year he threw 66 2/3 was also his single season high for saves reaching 42 in 1998 at the age of 28.
I could also throw in the wonder boy from Soddy-Daisy, TN Bryan Harvey who tossed just 279 innings by 1991 at the age of 28 recording 46 saves in 1991. Injuries sideline him in ‘92 and again in ‘94, when he goes on the disabled list three times. He would total 387 innings pitched in his career logging 45 saves in 1993 for the Marlins but be out of baseball by 1995 with Tommy John surgery.
Willie Mays Aikens is FREeeeeeeee
by Angel Aviator on Jul 23, 2008 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yet despite a rough 2007
Shields is still pitching, and back to a sub-3 ERA just like usual. Shields is also in his 30s.
Joe Nathan threw 90 innings in back-to-back seasons for the giants, got sent to the minors where he threw another 240 innings over two seasons, came back as a reliever age 28, put up 79 innings. Traded to Minnesota, where he has averaged 70 innings per season over the next four years, on pace for that again this year. He’s 33 now.
Some guys are injury prone or can’t handle it. Some guys are less so. K-Rod’s longevity and durability is actually an argument in favor of keeping him.
~Till the Halo burns out...
by Zu Long on Jul 23, 2008 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shields also said
that he felt conditioning was his problem last August—he was tired.
He spent this off-season working on conditioning so as to be better later in the season.
Plus, other than Frankie, most of the other relievers have been getting a break due to the rotation going deep into games (last night was the exception that proves the rule).
Shields has been splitting time with E.T., so hopefully come August, neither will be overused.
Angels fan since '67
by red floyd on Jul 23, 2008 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Physical Performance
Have to maintain conditioning!!
I know that Francona was very careful in the way he used Papelbon in 2007 believing he had used him a little to much in 2006 when he went on the DL with a injured shoulder that September. Papelbon would see no action from September through the playoffs.
Willie Mays Aikens is FREeeeeeeee
by Angel Aviator on Jul 23, 2008 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nathan Blew Up
He spent two stints on the disabled list due to right shoulder tendinitis, the other time for right shoulder inflammation.[ At the end of the season, Nathan had arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder, and as a result spent the 2001 season in the minors
Willie Mays Aikens is FREeeeeeeee
by Angel Aviator on Jul 23, 2008 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Saw him as a High School kid
Willie Mays Aikens is FREeeeeeeee
by Angel Aviator on Jul 23, 2008 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And yet his career has continued and in fact, taken off since then.
Sooner or later in a long career unless you’re a generational talent you’re going to get hurt. So you miss a half season and come back.
~Till the Halo burns out...
by Zu Long on Jul 23, 2008 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hold On
Shields has pitched less and less innings in the past few years and right now he has 39 2/3 innings through 100 games. He totaled 77 innings last year, after totaling 87 2/3 and 91 2/3 the 2 years prior to the 2007 campaign. Right now he would have to appear in half of the remaining games to equal his appearances last year.
Of course Scot Shields is still signed through the 2010 season so does that play into it at all?? Maybe….........
Willie Mays Aikens is FREeeeeeeee
by Angel Aviator on Jul 23, 2008 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Saving Shields & the bullpen has been one of the undersung achievements
Every year, Shields has burned out. But he won’t have the excuse this time around! And Frankie isn’t being over-used at all, unless you count the mental exhaustion of being in so many tight games, which is an interesting concept I hadn’t thought about before.
Anyway, one of the great knock-ons from having a lights-out rotation is that the bullpen arms have been saved.
by mattwelch on Jul 23, 2008 12:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
77 innings still > 72
~Till the Halo burns out...
by Zu Long on Jul 23, 2008 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tommy John
Carpenter has had it twice.
Smoltz had TJ surgery in 2000, so I would not call his arm new in 2002. He got moved to the bullpen midseason in 2001. After recording 55 saves in 2002 he posted a 45 save 1.12 ERA season in 2003. He posted 44 saves and a 2.76 ERA in 2004. He then put up three somewhat dominant seasons as a starter each over 200 IP and then his shoulder gave out, at the age of 41.
Seattle I would like to thank you for sucking. It allows me to get back to my roots: Hating Fremont.
Kobe tell me how my ass tastes
by hauldog on Jul 23, 2008 10:07 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think the "new arm" thing was a reference to the fact that he'd had Tommy John surgery on it.
But it’s a good point that “soon back on the slab” means “6 years later his arm gave out at 41.” Kind of the same way that 8 years between surgeries for Hoffman is considered bad for some reason, or that Rivera having one surgery in 2002 is indicative that he must have been juicing. The fact that he is having a career season as we speak is apparently meaningless. The fact that a lot of the career closers were still good pitchers well into their 30s is also left out.
~Till the Halo burns out...
by Zu Long on Jul 23, 2008 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He pitched 2001, so I would hardly call it "new" in 2002.
Rivera juicing is laughable, HGH nor steroids regenerate ligaments.
Seattle I would like to thank you for sucking. It allows me to get back to my roots: Hating Fremont.
Kobe tell me how my ass tastes
by hauldog on Jul 23, 2008 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rivera
He had Tommy John surgery in 1992. His 2002 season found him on the disabled list three times for a groin pull and a right shoulder strain. Threw most innings in his career out of the pen in 2001
Willie Mays Aikens is FREeeeeeeee
by Angel Aviator on Jul 23, 2008 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The subject line was about Smoltz
The body was about Rivera.
Seattle I would like to thank you for sucking. It allows me to get back to my roots: Hating Fremont.
Kobe tell me how my ass tastes
by hauldog on Jul 23, 2008 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Life of Closer
Most of those guys pitching well into the 30’s were starters early in their careers. There is a difference. Not so sure what your background is besides numbers, but if you look at all the names and use the newer guys or straight relief pitchers and closers especially they don’t have a long shelf life. Thats a fact. They may continue to pitch and bounce around the league occasionally capturing there old form here and there but they don’t dominate for extended periods.
I challenge you to find a guy that is continuing to rack up saves at a pace like Frankie has for the past 5 years, and hasn’t had arm problems later. Since 2000 there isn’t a new guy that has come into the league and been able to maintain any sort of longevity as a power pitching closer.
Billy Koch 1999-2003 total saves 155 from 1999-2002 144 saves and out of baseball after the 2004 season.
Maybe Kevin Foulke? Look at his numbers top 5 in saves in the AL from 2000-2004 but has battled injuries even to the point of retiring and trying to come back.
There is a reason Rivera got that sort of contract he got, and it is because he is the exception to the rule just like Cal Ripken Jr and Maddux (great machanics/not a power pitcher). I would agree that all pitchers breakdown at some point, but as Marcel Lachemann told me “they all breakdown at some point , your job is to figure out if it will be sooner then later, and my job is to make them miss the big part of the bat” Thanks Lach!
Willie Mays Aikens is FREeeeeeeee
by Angel Aviator on Jul 23, 2008 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No one racks up saves the way Frankie has.
That’s why he’s an exception too.
K-Rod started out as a starter. Arm problems happen to nearly EVERY PITCHER sooner or later. John Lackey has had arm problems this year. They happen, you deal with it, you move on. There is no guarantee that Arredondo won’t blow up tomorrow. The Angels have often talked about the fact that while K-Rod’s delivery looks uncomfortably violent, it’s actually pretty sound mechanically.
JJ Putz didn’t even make it as long as K-Rod did. BJ Ryan didn’t either. Huston Street has been on and off the DL every year it seems like. Isringhausen finally seems to have broken down at the ripe old age of 35. Guys have differing amounts of toughness. K-Rod actually appears to be pretty tough, given that he’s had zero arm problems at age 26.
~Till the Halo burns out...
by Zu Long on Jul 23, 2008 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ryan Putz
Mister BJ went 87inn / 70 2/3 inn / 72 2/3 inn then broke. I will also point out that he cuts himself off and is a cross fire thrower that has no bottom drive using upper body causing shoulder strain.
Putz is in his 6 season while F-Rod is in his 7th. Split-finger pitch is a pitch that does put a strain on the arm.
Isringhausen broke down a long time lost 1997 and 98 season after 3 major arm surgies. Traded in late 1999 and found his role as a closer in 2000 only to break down again after the 2005 season struggling through 2006 until he missed the whole Cardnial playoff run to the World Series.
F-Rod will not be an Angel after this year that is the story….......
Willie Mays Aikens is FREeeeeeeee
by Angel Aviator on Jul 23, 2008 7:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eh. I'll believe it when it happens.
~Till the Halo burns out...
by Zu Long on Jul 23, 2008 8:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
For all the talk about Frankie's violent delivery
Exactly how many shoulder/arm injuries has Frankie had?
I hope Harden wins 10 more games for the Cubs. Ha!
by 101halo on Jul 23, 2008 12:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Shoulder / Arm
Rodriguez moved to relief pitching in 2002 after elbow and shoulder injuries shortened parts of his 2001 minor league season
Willie Mays Aikens is FREeeeeeeee
by Angel Aviator on Jul 23, 2008 7:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They weren't really major injuries though.
The larger problem was his spotty control got spottier and his fastball lost speed as innings went on. They moved him to relief for the same reasons they moved Arredondo, he just couldn’t keep his early effectiveness through a whole game.
The fact that he’s had precisely zero injuries since then despite pitching over 65 innings every year speaks (again) to endurance rather than frailty.
~Till the Halo burns out...
by Zu Long on Jul 23, 2008 8:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not True
I scouted him when he was in Lake Elsinore and again when the team moved to Rancho. He was 94-96 with plus movement on the fastball and a nasty slider that had late tilt 79-83. He had no feel for the change, at the time and would have to be removed because of the inflammation he would have after throwing so many pitches in his starts. He was strictly a starter for there Cal League teams both years.
Willie Mays Aikens is FREeeeeeeee
by Angel Aviator on Jul 23, 2008 8:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reports I read had him dropping to 92 in later innings as his pitch count mounted
probably because of the shoulder inflamation you mentioned. And I know for a fact he got wild you can see it in his stat line when he was walking 55 people in 113 innings at Rancho.
~Till the Halo burns out...
by Zu Long on Jul 23, 2008 8:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I will look at mine
I know I have it someplace in the files. I do know that most young pitchers don’t sit at the same velo for the game. Only guy I can think of that maintained his velocity was Prior he was 91 first pitch and 91 last pitch the day I saw him in HS and that was a good game because it featured a little known HS junior by the name of Hank Blalock. As they get older they get a little more stamina and know how to pitch but K-Rod was a young 18-19 old kid then
Willie Mays Aikens is FREeeeeeeee
by Angel Aviator on Jul 23, 2008 9:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sounds right to me.
~Till the Halo burns out...
by Zu Long on Jul 23, 2008 9:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who did you scout for?
Seattle I would like to thank you for sucking. It allows me to get back to my roots: Hating Fremont.
Kobe tell me how my ass tastes
by hauldog on Jul 24, 2008 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Frankie's scariest comp...
... is Gregg Olson. Who also had great success while young, based on a devastating breaking pitch, and was a shadow of himself by age 27.
I have faith in Frankie continuing dominance for the next five years, but I won’t pretend that the operative word isn’t “faith.” His stuff & arm just strike me as way beyond most folks ever dream of, more in Gossage territory than Thigpen. But these numbers are very interesting, and the point is well taken.
by mattwelch on Jul 23, 2008 1:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but I think Angels fans have heard this argument before.
Something about Nolan Ryan’s arm being toast at age 30.
~Till the Halo burns out...
by Zu Long on Jul 23, 2008 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It was never a serious threat that Ryan's arm might fall off by the time he hit 30.
He had another one.
Francisco Rodriguez: 188 career saves. 2 career Panthers, tied with Hector Carrasco.
by Stirrups on Jul 23, 2008 5:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another aspect
It seems like closers rise to prominence just as fast as they fade out. George Sherrill was nobody last year. How about Brian Wilson? There’s no reason Arredondo or some other relative noboby could save 30+ for us next season. Percy did it in his 2nd season. Bobby Jenks had 41 in his second season. I just don’t think it’s that hard to find someone who can pitch well for an inning a game, under pressure, a few times a week.
I swear, if one more person tells me to "work smarter, not harder"...
by Rally Manatee on Jul 23, 2008 4:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
For one season it's not that hard usually.
The problem is you go season after season, and eventually you run into a situation like Chicago has, where Jenks gets injured, and you try to put the NEW young guy in, only it doesn’t work. Or you may wind up like Cleveland last year, forced to allow a guy with a 6 ERA to be the closer in a playoff season. Or Detroit in 06 with Todd Jones and his 4.5 ERA.
The thing about closers is that finding a one who does it year in and year out is HARD. A guy who puts up 40 save, sub-3 ERA seasons with machine-like efficiency is REALLY hard.
~Till the Halo burns out...
by Zu Long on Jul 23, 2008 4:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I Know Someone that Doesn't Think That.....
Oakland has been able to take care of the closer role for a while with low cost closers.
Billy Taylor from 1997-99
Jason Isringhausen 2000-2001 ($4.2m for the 2yrs.) 67 saves left for Card’s as Free agent. From 2002-2008 he has cost the Card’s $50.25m
Billy Koch 2002 ($2.4m) 44 saves
Keith Foulke 2003 ($6m) 43 saves From 2004-2006 $18.75m
Arthur Rodes 2004 (1.8m) 9 saves injured Traded for Octavio Dotel ($2.8m pro rated) 22 saves
Finally they drafted Street in June of 2004 and have payed him $4.3m from 2005-2008 picking up the ROY award and 93 saves to date.
So they have spent just under $22m since Isringhausen has left and at the same time they have 3 1st place finishes. Isringhausen has locked up 216 saves. While the A’s have notched a total of 211 out of the above mention closers.
Your argument about Jenks doesn’t play because they didn’t let Jenks go, or trade him thinking they had someone to replace him. He got hurt! Just again shows the point I have made about how they break. Jenks has 105 saves as of today in what is his 4th year of big league service. Currently he has 207 innings thrown. In F-Rod’s of 4 years (2003-2006) he had 106 saves, and 310 innings. Lets not forget Jenks will probably pick up a few more saves and innings before the end of the season.
Willie Mays Aikens is FREeeeeeeee
by Angel Aviator on Jul 23, 2008 8:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, and look where it's got them.
How many blown saves does Street have? How many injuries has HE had? On and off the DL all the time. If we had Street, and they had K-Rod, they’d be a LOT closer to us right now, and we wouldn’t have gotten near as close as we did in 2006.
How many has Oakland blown vs how many has Isringhousen blown? Including this season, Isring has blown 38 saves 2002-2008. Oakland’s flotilla blew 55 by my count. Rhodes plus Dotel blew 11 in 2004 alone. If they’d had a regular closer, do they lose the division by 1 game? I doubt it. The “closers are overrated” portion of Beane’s strategy is one of his more glaring tactical blunders.
The Jenks example is perfect because he DID get injured, just like Rhodes and just like Street. Cheaper year to year options are no more reliable than the K-Rod’s of the world. The difference is that when healthy, K-Rod will DOMINATE people while the year-to-year guys do not. Arredondo will probably dominate as well, but rather that makes keeping K-Rod around a better option. Even if K-Rod blows up for a season, Arredondo is there ready to pick up the slack. If we lose K-Rod to FA and Arredondo gets injured next year, which this topic proves is entirely possible, our bullpen is SOL.
~Till the Halo burns out...
by Zu Long on Jul 23, 2008 8:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
SOL
Not so sure I buy the SOL theory. I understand your concern, but just not big on the 3 run save. 3 outs before giving up 3 runs, or in todays case getting a save when their up by 3 and there is a runner on second.
I think that the save happens more in the 6th and 7th inning of a game. Sure it can happen in the 9th but I hope you understand what I am saying. You spoke about T. Jones and his stats in 2006 but he found himself in the World Series and did not allow any runs in his outings. Those games were decided in the earlier innings as a little known RHP Adam Wainwright who had 3 total saves all season but filled in for the injured Isringhausen picking up 4 saves in the 2006 playoffs.
As bad as Joe Borowski was in 2007 he lead the world in saves. Kind of proves my point about total saves. Heck if the team was beating teams by more then 3 runs F-Rod wouldn’t be having to hump it so much. I remember when the closer would come in with tying run(s) in scoring position with less then 2 in the 8th and finish games. Now that goes to guys like Shields.
Willie Mays Aikens is FREeeeeeeee
by Angel Aviator on Jul 23, 2008 9:30 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Unlike Borowski though, the vast majority of K-Rod's saves this year have been in one and two runs situations.
Gammons had a quote, I believe it’s something like 35 of 42. Borrowski also had a 5 losses and 8 blown saves, IIRC. And where is Joe Borrowski now? DFA’d. Where is Rafael Betancourt, hero of the 2007 Indian’s pen? He’s got a 5.86 ERA .
Guys like Jones or Borrowski who somehow muddle through, and the Betancourts who can be dominant for a year before blowing up, THOSE guys are a dime a dozen.
But a K-Rod? A machine who puts up 40+ save seasons over 70 innings with 90% efficiency every year with a sub-3 ERA and K/9 over 9.00? Guys like that are HARD to find, and they aren’t nearly as brittle as this topic seems to believe. Even Papelbon with all his awesome stuff gets the jitters in the close games. Isringhausen blew 10 saves one year. K-Rod strikes me as a guy who was MADE to close games. Always has really.
Look up Shield’s record in the 9th some time. He is not good at closing games. There is a reason he avoided going somewhere else and making uber-money to stay the set-up man here: It’s because he’s good at setting up and doesn’t WANT to close. He has said as much in interviews.
~Till the Halo burns out...
by Zu Long on Jul 23, 2008 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think this point has been made clearly enough
There are random guys who can rack up 30 saves a year and turn into pumpkins the next.
A closer like K-Rod is arguably at the top of his profession and you can’t just replace the guy with a Derrick Turnbow, Danny Kolb, Todd Jones or a number of other relievers.
by BBFan1 on Jul 23, 2008 11:30 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Problems with all of these measurements
INNINGS PITCHED doesn’t mean shit – An inning can be 3 pitches, it can be 30 pitches.
SAVES doesn’t mean shit – it can be 1 batter, it can be 3 innings. It can be high leverage with men on base and Manny up to bat, it can be coasting with a 3-run lead against defensive replacements.
APPEARANCES doesn’t mean shit, as it seems your measuring of these major league guys starts only at their major league debuts – does one’s arm become magically pure, virginal and optimum the day they make a major league appearance???
Frankie may break down, it will not come as a surprise and I reject any baseball analyst who will chirp up with “I TOLD YA SO” as literally EVERYONE told us so after 2002. Well it is 2008, the kid is the best in baseball and even if his arm fall so ff tomorrow he has records for youngest-to-this and quickest-to-that which will probably hold for a decade minimum.
MY POINT: Nobody has yet to show a revealing numerical measurement as to why CLOSERS (independent of other bullpen pitchers) supposedly breakdown at a rate higher than starters.
by Rev Halofan on Jul 24, 2008 2:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Stick with what you know
I am not going to attack your art work or your information on art. So please don’t pretend to be someone that has sat in GM offices and made trades or ever been one that has had their thoughts heard on the subject. I remember how Frank Wren used my cell in Canada because his would not work to pull the trigger on a trade sending Juan Guzman to the Reds for a seventeen year old right hander named Jacobo Sequea and BJ Ryan on the last day of July. Hell, I can remember one night that the Angels almost made a trade on names bounced around on a napkin at the bar in Phoenix during the fall of 1999 the players were (Darin Erstad for Brad Radke).
I don’t pretend to know about art just because I have some hanging in the house and office. It looks good great but doesn’t mean I am some sort of expert. I am sure if I told you I didn’t like some of your items you thought to be treasures you would think me to be one opinionated asshole…......
Innings Pitched does matter it matters a lot. It is what all teams gauge their guys at along with pitch count as well.
Appearance will equal inning and time warming up in the pen Right? As for the remark of magically pure, virginal blah blah blah goes back to the first part that these are guys that did time at other levels and gained innings in order to be ready to produce at the big league level but then again your thought is that doesn’t mean shit.
Saves are shit…......why is it a guy can come into the 8th or sooner and lose the lead and be charged with a blown save. Yet if he holds them in place and doesn’t give up the lead he only gets credit for a hold. THAT IS SHIT!
More importantly the whole thing was started with the fact that Frankie signing with the Angels looks less and less, and I know I would not be able to crack open the check book for a guy that wants what he will be asking for. As for numerical measures there is a little that was thrown your way, but for all the numbers there is still the fact of the matter when it comes to those that work in the game. Experience and gut feels from things that have happened in the past.
Enjoy your seats
Go Angels!Willie Mays Aikens is FREeeeeeeee
by Angel Aviator on Jul 25, 2008 12:52 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Dude...
Relax, I’m agreeing with you.
by Rev Halofan on Jul 25, 2008 2:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Between the lines
Not so sure I got that kind of feel from your last post Rev. Seemed as if your a little salty at the things posted about the F-Rod, and relief pitchers….
We will have to break bread some time and watch a game together. Then we can really break down players.
Willie Mays Aikens is FREeeeeeeee
by Angel Aviator on Jul 25, 2008 9:50 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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