Halos Heaven: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
New Blog: Sounder At Heart for Seattle Sounders Fans!

Casey Kotchman devolving before our eyes...

 

I decided to look at the Halo stats last night for shits and giggles when I stumbled upon what I thought must be a typo.

Kotchman has 18 walks this year.

 

Star-divide

 

That is GA-erific. That is Howie-esque! Kotchman isn't emulating the patient, double-ish Mark Grace like we thought, but channeling much lesser 1st baseman...like J.T. Snow.

 

I hadn't noticed that his walk rate dropped so much. Last year he walked in 10.7% of plate appearances. This year it is down to 4.7% of his PA's. His OBP is only .330. That is terrible compared to last year. He has lost .043 points of OBP and .030 points of SLG. That is a serious regression.

I am worried about him. Never thought I'd say that, and I am more than a little worried that the teams hack-first-ask-questions-later approach is impacting the first legit OBP guy the system has produced since....

wait for it....

Troy Glaus

and before that....

Tim Salmon and Jimmy Edmonds...

Can Kendry be in Baltimore by 4 PM today?

This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.

0 recs  |  Comment 50 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

seriously? You're this freaked out about that?

the guy still doesn’t K… at all.
and i’m sure part of it has to do with the mini-slump he’s been in. Hitters hack at everything to break out of a slump. Once he gets going again, I’m sure it’ll be a non-issue.

on a similar note, I still think we need to get Hatcher out and someone more patient in

Mike Scioscia: He provides to unlike method of your team member.

by howiestheman on Jul 26, 2008 9:04 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Yes, I am.

Good hitters draw more walks when they get more experience, not less. This tells me that Kotch is probably listening to Hatcher and that is not good.

by jimmuscomp on Jul 26, 2008 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is really only his 2nd full season

since the last 3 have been shortened by injury.
While I do agree that this could potentially become a problem and that Hatcher is probably ruining another hitter, it’s not a problem yet.
Casey’s a really good player, and from what I’ve seen, he’s smart. This is probably some fluke thing.

Mike Scioscia: He provides to unlike method of your team member.

by howiestheman on Jul 26, 2008 9:26 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's right to be concerned

Matt Welch notes downthread that walk rates will fluctuate a lot in a young player’s career; fair enough, but Mickey Hatcher’s presence definitely rates a yellow flag, at least.

Witty .sig wishing ladybug a happy birthday goes here.

by scareduck on Jul 27, 2008 9:03 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

like i said one reply up

“While I do agree that this could potentially become a problem and that Hatcher is probably ruining another hitter, it’s not a problem yet.”

I totally agree that Hatcher might have his devil’s work going, but we can’t be sure yet.

Mike Scioscia: He provides to unlike method of your team member.

by howiestheman on Jul 27, 2008 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mickey Hatcher

Kotch needs to stay as far away from him as he can, and turn his iPod up real loud whenever Hatcher tries to talk to him.

by jjackflash on Jul 26, 2008 9:10 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I thought this article was going to be about

Kotch.s goatee and how it was making him look like a caveman.

I was way off.

by TheTypingFiend on Jul 26, 2008 9:57 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Nice funny!

Don't call me Desmond

by highlandhalo on Jul 27, 2008 9:09 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Casey is known as the toughest guy to strike out in baseball.

If you watch any of his frequent post-game interviews, he says he always tries to put the ball in play, and try to find a hole. That is his plan when he steps up to the plate. I don’t think an opposing pitcher particularly wants to walk a guy hitting in the two hole with Vlad and Hunter up after that so that could be a contributing factor. Plus Casey “sees” the ball better and has more plate dicipline than most of the guys on the team, a thing he uses not so much to force a walk but to wait for that perfect ball to hit. He hits more to power than people realize and he is more likelly to strike out or get a hit than walk much.

by 44FAN on Jul 26, 2008 11:43 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I liked it better when his plan included walking.

Seattle I would like to thank you for sucking. It allows me to get back to my roots: Hating Fremont.

Kobe tell me how my ass tastes

by hauldog on Jul 27, 2008 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

So

I’m guessing you missed seeing Kotch go 5 for 5 the other night? You may have missed it because of Mathis’ grand slam…

by jtkelly86 on Jul 26, 2008 12:11 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

No, I saw that...

but it has nothing to do with his diminished walk rate.

Sorry if the subtlety of this topic makes it hard for you to understand, but I’ll try to explain it in Grand Slam-ese:

Getting on base (hits, walks, HBP) is GOOD...

Not getting on base is Bad...

Kotchman is getting on base a lot LESS this year than last year. Typically, hitters that are 25 years old with the pedigree of Kotchman get BETTER from year to year, not worse.

Did that help?

by jimmuscomp on Jul 26, 2008 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe it is the league adjusting to him

and now he will have to adjust his game back to the league…

by Rev Halofan on Jul 26, 2008 12:11 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Ding ding ding!

Also, Casey uses the count to his hitting advantage.

On 3-0 counts, Casey is 1-for-1 with 7 walks. After 3-0, he’s hitting .750/.882/1.000.

On 3-1 counts, he’s hitting .556/.714/.556; after 3-1 it’s .500/.654/.611.

Looking at his splits, I’d say he’s mostly swinging a bit too much at the first pitch, and not getting a good enough look at his 2-0 counts. Hardly a reason to panic, I don’t think.

by mattwelch on Jul 26, 2008 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree...

but he didn’t swing at 1st pitches this much (according to my memory) last year – or 2006. This is a bad trend, no?

by jimmuscomp on Jul 26, 2008 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This makes sense...

but a lot of hitters are raking on 3-0 and 3-1 counts. You last point is very good, however. He is swinging at too many first pitches that aren’t HIS pitches.

Who on the coaching staff is most likely to be trying to get players to swing at the first fastball they see?

I think Hatcher is on his way to working on ruining Kotchman. Just my 2 cents.

by jimmuscomp on Jul 26, 2008 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not Garret Anderson

Casey has always outtperformed G.A. in hitters counts….

And yes, it’s worrisome that he’s (probably) swinging at too many first pitches, and (definitely) not walking as much as he should. But walk rates are fluxy, especially early in a guy’s career. As far as he hit that ball yesterday (I was at Camden, and I think the thing is still in the air), I wouldn’t be surprised to see him walk five times this week.

by mattwelch on Jul 27, 2008 6:55 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was actually going to make the same diary last night

yeah, he doesn’t strike out, but so what? A .330 OBP is right around G.A.’s career average. This guy used to put huge BA/OBP differentials, and it was one of the biggest assets to his offensive game. It was what was going to ensure that his yearly OPS was always well over .800, and now he’s walking as often as perennial hackers like Kendrick and Anderson.

He has good plate discipline, but I can’t stand the idea that a guy with as much talent as him, and as good an eye as him is now being ruined by our hack of a hitting coach so badly. Fucking Kevin Youkilis, who was never in the same LEAGUE as Kotchman in talent, is out there overshadowing what should be one of our great position players. He needs to come around and start drawing the walk again because .330 ain’t cutting it.

by Caseys Kiss of Death on Jul 26, 2008 12:19 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm not really sure a ton of Casey Kotchman walks really helps us that much

OK it makes the pitcher work more, but Casey is so flipping slow that he clogs the bases. We want Casey hitting/slugging … needs more doubles and HRs. Take the occasional walk. I’m fine with what Casey’s doing as long as he’s not whiffing, and he’s not.

Don't call me Desmond

by highlandhalo on Jul 26, 2008 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why do you hate K's?

Aren’t they better than weak grounders to 2nd when Figgy is on 1st?

K’s aren’t any worse than other outs. Why the hate re: strikeouts?

by jimmuscomp on Jul 26, 2008 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yep

Kotchman sux, we should have released him before he played tonight.

Seriously, I would wait until the end of the year. This has a chance to be his first healthy full season. Then if his OPS is not over 800, I would give serious thought to signing Big Tex.

by elricsi on Jul 26, 2008 5:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why do people act as though walks and power are mutally exclusive?

Last year, when Casey was drawing walks, his SLG% was also higher. He’s swinging earlier in counts now, and not doing as much damage with the bat. If his walk total was down marginally, fine, I don’t care. But it’s gone from team-leading territory to G.A.-territory in the course of one season, and the rest of his SLG numbers aren’t the same, either. And since Hatcher is notorious for instilling that type of offense in hitters, it leaves room for legitimate concern.

by Caseys Kiss of Death on Jul 26, 2008 6:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks, Casey

You said it perfectly.

Casey is swinging at more pitchers pitches and making more weak outs, thus lowering his SLG, etc. Hopefully it is a flukey thing, but this smells like Hatcher.

Interestingly, as the TEAM has success, his approach is being reinforced. The team is winning, he is hitting fairly well, therefore he is doing everything right. Unfortunately, it could all be better…

Plate discipline isn’t just about walks. It is about not swinging at bad pitches and more importantly, not swinging at pitchers pitches. It is being selective inside the strike zone so that you focus on YOUR pitch and drive it. When you see weak grounders and lazy pop-ups and weak fly balls the hitter is probably swinging at a pitch that he can’t do anything with. That is just as bad as a strike out. It is a pitch that won’t result in solid contact.

by jimmuscomp on Jul 26, 2008 7:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He seems to be breaking out of it here in July.

OPS for the month is back up over .800 for the first time since April.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 26, 2008 7:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Walks are great and all but ....

I am fine when young players who don’t whiff, don’t walk either. It gives them some room to develop. Also, it could mean they are really squaring up and hitting lots of line drives (see Kendrick, Howie).

I basically only look at their OPS or bases/out, and don’t really care how they get it.

by elricsi on Jul 26, 2008 1:42 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I basically only look at their OPS or bases/out, and don’t really care how they get it.

Well then you should be worried. His OPS is down by .073 points in 2008. Isn’t that something to be worried about?

by jimmuscomp on Jul 26, 2008 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fluke

I assume this is a fluke and maybe 2009 will be a year for Kotchman to ‘explode’ as far as power. Maybe his walks will pick-up again, though I don’t expect him to be a consistent 25-30 home run threat.

He’s not having a bad season in 2008, though maybe just a bit below average production for the position.

The only thing I would add is maybe Kotchman may not great as fans want or expect him to be. He may have the skills of Don Mattingly, but at least for this year, he is more of a .450 slugging, 15 home run guy who hits close to .300.

by BBFan1 on Jul 26, 2008 2:49 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I'd be fine with those numbers

if a higher OBP came attached than freakin’ .330.

by Caseys Kiss of Death on Jul 26, 2008 3:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah...

What do you consider the basement for a 1st baseman?

I am thinking if he could pull off .360/.475 I’d be happy.

If he got as low as .350/.450 that is as low as I want it to get for a MLB 1st baseman.

by jimmuscomp on Jul 26, 2008 8:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Basement: Doug Mientkiewicz

Pretty good eye, good defender, doesn’t do much else.

by BBFan1 on Jul 26, 2008 11:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Trade him!

We’ll put Mark Trumbo (I think thats his name) at first, then lets go win!

:) ;)

Angel Pitching, Angel Defense - get past that.

by vladtheimpaler on Jul 26, 2008 3:30 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Trumbo

Maybe the type of guy who walks 35 times, strikes out 115 and barely hits .250 in the Major Leagues.

I don’t assume he has the same ‘hitting skills’ like Kotchman does, though Trumbo looks like he can hit 30 home runs a year.

by BBFan1 on Jul 26, 2008 3:57 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Trumbo won't hit

.230 in the majors.

He isn’t a good hitter.

by jimmuscomp on Jul 26, 2008 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

ITT

People whine about our first half MVP on the MLBs best team.

Go be Royals fans.

I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....

by PhiSlamma on Jul 26, 2008 8:12 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

If you can't understand the dialog...

don’t bother reading it and certainly don’t comment.

You know, I’m not bemoaning the Halos and their play. I am investigating the players on the team – trying to see if they are doing what was expected of them as they came through the minor leagues. When I see a 25 year old first baseman lose significant amounts of OBP and SLG I get worried. I didn’t realize how much he regressed this year and thought I’d bring it up. Sorry you can’t handle hearing negative comments about your team…

Grow some, PhiSlamma. Better yet, go get ready for a Frat Rush somewhere….

by jimmuscomp on Jul 26, 2008 8:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The entire team

is a product of speed and timely hitting. Thats the offensive philosophy of the organization, and has been for a while now.

This isn’t a product of one player degrading into a hacker, but of that player fitting into the established styles of not only the hitting coach but of the organizational expectations themselves.

Also, thanks for cherry picking and personally insulting me based on a screen name on a blog-website. Really brings your argument home and by obvious logical standards, makes you more correct. Call me fat next time and maybe everyone will start agreeing with you!

I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....

by PhiSlamma on Jul 26, 2008 9:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also, thanks for cherry picking and personally insulting me based on a screen name on a blog-website…...

Apologies. You, are correct.

Here.

As to the point re: Kotchman fitting into the organizational model. Maybe that is the problem – that the team doesn’t know what a good hitter is – so instead, they try to mold hitters into their pre-conceived notion of what makes a good team. They are still wrong.

Again, apologies on the Frat comment. That was unnecessary. Sorry.

by jimmuscomp on Jul 26, 2008 9:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree completely

I think whats wrong is the organizations stance on at-bats.

We just need to walk more, period.

I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....

by PhiSlamma on Jul 26, 2008 10:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

wumbug and PhiSlamma for Tex

(Damn it, I’m going to trade somebody before the deadline :) )

Angel Pitching, Angel Defense - get past that.

by vladtheimpaler on Jul 26, 2008 9:00 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Ew

Atlanta!

Please no =(

I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....

by PhiSlamma on Jul 26, 2008 9:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He is swinging more...

than last year. Kotchman swung at 43.5% of the pitches last year compared to 49.2%. That’s a pretty good jump, but I’d like to see what his situational stats are related to where he bats. Remember, he spent the first half of the year down in the batting order and only recently moved up to the 2 spot (which is a whole other posting). I’d like to see if his approach has changed with his new spot in the batting order. If he’s taking more pitches, less pitches, or staying at the same rate.

Another interesting stat is he’s making a little better contact over last year (90.6% vs 88.5%). By swinging more often and making better contact, his walks are going to go down, as well as his strikeouts (which they are 6.3% compared to 9.7% in 2007).

I don’t really have a point to make, just throwing those stats out there. I like Kotchman. I think he’s a Mark Grace-type player…which is good, and I hope he has a long career with the Halos. And I think I’d rather wait until the end of the year before looking at his stats and making any kind of career judgement about his ability to get on base.

I was uncool before uncool was cool.

by WiHaloFan on Jul 27, 2008 8:32 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Fair enough.

That is just a really big drop in walks…

by jimmuscomp on Jul 27, 2008 8:48 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Don't get me wrong...

I agree with you, and appreciate your opinion / analysis, but I think its a bigger picture than just Kotchman. It seems like its an organizational thing. From what I’ve read and heard they don’t preach OBA or working the count throughout the minors, so once they get to the big league roster its a line-up of hackers…that’s kind of harsh and not meant to be negative, but I’d like to see more walks too.

Its hard to be too negative, the team’s in first with the best record in baseball and scoring a bunch of runs lately. But there’s always room for improvement.

I was uncool before uncool was cool.

by WiHaloFan on Jul 27, 2008 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

With Kotch batter higher in the order, often in front of Howie

He has more protection this year. Less walks…

My men on base situations?

He may be more aggressive. He’s struck out less. I don’t think you can read much into it.

Overall I think he’s been more consistent this year even if he hasn’t had a crazy hot streak.

by melvintoast on Jul 27, 2008 4:39 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Halos Heaven is the world's 12th Most Important Baseball Blog, according to Sports Media Challenge.
Start posting about the Angels »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

28653_small
New found love for Rick Reilly
Small
The NY Yankees winning the 2009 World Series is as exciting as...
Angelsbathroom_small
Think About Brandon Wood When You Watch the Phillies
Dad___cade_at_camden_small
Report from the Bronx part II
0406091816_small
Do not go gentle into that good night.

Recent FanPosts

Marlon_brando_biography_2_small
Angel Stadium garage/rummage sale?
Lackey_small
Angels fan license plates
Gypsy_small
Would you want Jason Bay in Left Field
California_angels_1979_small
What to do if we don't re-sign Lackey
Quadfin_small
Halos & Abreu agree to new contract
Knights-09_small
Disenchanted Blue Jays Fan Looking For A New Team
Small
I hope Darren Oliver retires
48686690_small
Vladdy Autograph Signing

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

SPONSORS


Managers

4323_1105939621665_1622022962_290465_5300842_n_small Rev Halofan