The Future is Now!

Someone posted a link to Cot's Baseball Contracts which is awesome because I always was frustrated not knowing when players are eligible for free agency etc. So I thought in the context of the Teixera trade that it would be interesting to do a little what if analysis. All of this is really inconsequential to me if the Halos win another WS. If for some reason that doesn't work out, it would be interesting to see what their chances are next year.

Garland 12
k-rod   10
tex     12.5
vladdy  14.5
ga      12
esco    9
lackey  7
figgy   4.75
izzy    1.2
q       1
rivera  2
oliver  2
erv     0.4


Garland ?? free
K-Rod   ?? free
Tex     ?? free
Rivera  ?? free
oliver  ?? free
Vladdy 15M option 
GA     14M option 
lackey  9M option 
Figgy   ?? arbitration
izzy    ?? arb
Q       ?? arb
Ervin   ?? arb


esco    ?? free
vladdy  ?? free
ga      ?? free
lackey  ?? free
figgy   ?? free
q       ?? free
izzy    ?? arb
ervin   ?? arb
weave   ?? arb
hk      ?? arb
reggie  ?? arb
nap     ?? arb
joe     ?? arb
mose    ?? arb
aybar   ?? arb
math    ?? arb
So to me, the math works like this:

Assume Garland is re-signed since Escobar is questionable. Assume Rivera is re-signed for 5M. Vladdy's club option is exercised as is Lackey's. GA probably walks. Figgy and Ervin are eligible for arbitration, let say that costs the club about $7M. If K-Rod walks, Net difference would be about $10M less. You lose Garrett and K-Rod.

In 2010, Esco, Vladdy, Lacky, Figgy, Rivera and Q would be free agents and a truck load of players would be eligible for arbitration. Esco walks, assume you keep Vladdy, Lackey, and Figgy. Q probably makes $2M if he stays. Give Vladdy $20M, Lackey $15M, and Figgy $7M. Arb players cost another $15M say. That's costing net $30M compared to this year.

My conclusion is that Vladdy isn't coming back after next year and Figgy probably isn't either. Unloading one other free agent probably makes a Teixera contract possible. All I can say is that Reagin has his work cut out for him!

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