How do they factor these percentages??? Homers??

by Halofanatic on Jul 7, 2008 10:11 PM PDT

As a daily ritual (mostly after a halos win) I look at the standings on Espn.com to find gratification in how my beloved team is beginning to put distance between division foes and also how their record looks in comparison to the rest of baseball as each day passes. Furthermore, espn, has a fun features when comparing win/loss columns amidst the rest of MLB. These features include: League, Overall, Wild Card, Power Rankings. I much like the feature "Overall" because it is just one "standings" column that aligns all of MLB. Moreover, as I deeply analyzed the statistics (i'm a stats fan there i said it), I looked at the probability which is somehow calculated for each team of whether or not that team will win either the Division, WC (Wild Card), POFF ( Make the Playoffs) and I noticed that they had my beloved team at a 65% chance of making the playoffs in comparison to the Rays (84%) and the chisox (73%). I stared in disbelief at the probability ratios (with exception to the Rays which have the best record in all MLB) and couldn't find a decent excuse as to why the chisox had a higher chance of making the playoffs considering their record is worse (51-37) and only having a 1.5 game lead in that division. Furthermore, the Cubs (the redsux nation of the NL), has an 84% chance of making the playoffs allthewhile having such an insignificant 3.5 game lead and factoring in that they have the hard charging (never count us out) Cardinals nipping at their heals. With that said, (Rev..enlighten me with your inmense baseball wisdom) is there something that I don't know when it comes to calculating such probablities??? Or, is this just the most BLATENT form of HOMERISM???? I'm really losing it.....please help!

This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan and may or may not be a reflection of human evolution, divine enlightenment or nine cans into a 12-pack.

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homer-ism

at its best…imo

by wallispdub1 on Jul 7, 2008 10:25 PM PDT 0 recs

The playoff odds are based on their current record

and a prediction of their record over the rest of the season based on a computer model and their statistics thus far. As you can tell from our Pythagorean record, our stats supposedly don’t justify our current place atop the standings while the A’s should supposedly be much better. Because of this, our win probability suffers. The same is true for the Cardinals.

So blatant homerism? Not really. Totally irrelevant? Very much so.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 7, 2008 10:45 PM PDT 0 recs

I agree

Not blatant homerism, but blind acceptance of the theory that math governs baseball. Not every team fits what the statistics say should happen and ESPN is going with a one formula fits all standard.

by Rhapsode on Jul 7, 2008 10:50 PM PDT up 0 recs

I have no idea how or why they invent those figures, BUT...

if Vegas is listening and giving similar odds, I would put $50 on Seattle! That team was expected to contend for the division, we have 1/2 a season left, and they would be giving 1000 to 1.

by Stirrups on Jul 7, 2008 10:46 PM PDT 0 recs

Waste of $50 bucks

Seattle I would like to thank you for sucking. It allows me to get back to my roots: Hating Fremont.

Kobe tell me how my ass tastes

by hauldog on Jul 7, 2008 11:00 PM PDT up 0 recs

Same, in hindsight, could be said of the $50 lost on the Patriots.

by Stirrups on Jul 7, 2008 11:09 PM PDT up 0 recs

The Patriots

Are not the NFL’s version of a turd in a punch bowl at the halfway point.

Seattle is not showing any signs of life.

Seattle I would like to thank you for sucking. It allows me to get back to my roots: Hating Fremont.

Kobe tell me how my ass tastes

by hauldog on Jul 7, 2008 11:13 PM PDT up 0 recs

Doesn't matter. The upside is too huge.

If I can lose $50 on a sure thing like the Pats, I can lose $50 on a Seattle Wild Card. Hell, I can lose 50 bucks on the bad beer at Angels Stadium. Besides, I always bet the long shot in the last race of the day.

by Stirrups on Jul 7, 2008 11:26 PM PDT up 0 recs

Well piss it away then.

Seattle I would like to thank you for sucking. It allows me to get back to my roots: Hating Fremont.

Kobe tell me how my ass tastes

by hauldog on Jul 8, 2008 9:20 AM PDT up 0 recs

Or send it to me...

must be nice to have fifty skinnies to just piss away.

by Downing Rules on Jul 8, 2008 10:39 AM PDT up 0 recs

It is nice, yes.

Took a long time and a lot of hard, ass-breaking, work to get here, but it is nice now that I am. But it’s all a matter of perspective. For example, I do not golf. So every week I do NOT piss away $125 in greens fees to lose 4 hours of my life looking foolish in some vain attempt to measure myself against Tiger Woods.

Everybody has their pissing pot. Why you guys want to moan about mine is beyond me, but, whatever…

by Stirrups on Jul 8, 2008 2:48 PM PDT up 0 recs

My "piss away" is sporting event tickets...

Moreno is dry-washing his hands all the way to the bank courtesy of my hard-earned paychecks.

I ain’t jumping on your back, just hoping you could “bet ” some money on me.

I don’t play golf, it is a useless “sport/leisure” activity. I get more exercise blogging here.

by Downing Rules on Jul 8, 2008 3:06 PM PDT up 0 recs

Whattaya got that pays 1000 to 1

if you only end up doing what you were supposed to do to begin with?

by Stirrups on Jul 8, 2008 3:12 PM PDT up 0 recs

I gamble a lot

I fail to see the logic of throwing $50 at shitty team that basically has “DNR” tattooed on their forehead. It is not like you are going to cash in on the 10,000 to 1 odds you reference. They are bad team.

DNR = Do not resuscitate.

Seattle I would like to thank you for sucking. It allows me to get back to my roots: Hating Fremont.

Kobe tell me how my ass tastes

by hauldog on Jul 8, 2008 4:15 PM PDT up 0 recs

Sexson could get hot, man...

they’ve been waiting for what, 3 years for that guy? ;)

by Downing Rules on Jul 8, 2008 4:22 PM PDT up 0 recs

Good point

Seattle I would like to thank you for sucking. It allows me to get back to my roots: Hating Fremont.

Kobe tell me how my ass tastes

by hauldog on Jul 8, 2008 4:25 PM PDT up 0 recs

After taking a quick look

But not a deep study, it appears that they use a number of factors.

First and foremost they use run differential, the basis for the Pythagorean predictor (using run differential to predict final standings and winning percentage). This tends to be accurate for roughly 75% of teams in MLB and is often an indicator of an overachieving or overlooked team. Idiots like Rob “I hate the Angels and Darin Erstad” Neyer love this statistic and swear by it. But in 2002, the Angels had the best run differential in baseball, something like +200, and Neyer and all the other pundits still picked them to be swept in the first round.

After factoring in run differential, it looks like they then factor in the competition in the division and for the wild card. That is why the Angels, with only a +25 run differential have the 5th highest percentage of making the playoffs while Atlanta, also at +25 is 15th most likely.

Our record does not match our statistics which puts the Angels in that magic 25% that defies normal statistics so we do not fit in well with their computer formula.

by Rhapsode on Jul 7, 2008 10:48 PM PDT 0 recs

But in 2002

Their batting-average driven offense was too unstable! They weren’t really that good! Honest!

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 7, 2008 10:54 PM PDT up 0 recs

Really?

4th in runs
6th in OBP
7th in slugging
3rd in doubles
5th in steals
1st in Going first to third

Although they were 21st in HR’s

Seattle I would like to thank you for sucking. It allows me to get back to my roots: Hating Fremont.

Kobe tell me how my ass tastes

by hauldog on Jul 7, 2008 11:04 PM PDT up 0 recs

The above was Rob Neyer's argument for why the Angels offense

wasn’t actually that good. Swear to god, not making it up.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 7, 2008 11:12 PM PDT up 0 recs

God I hate Neyer

Those Angels were every bit of a 99 win team. In a league with a lot of very good teams.

Seattle I would like to thank you for sucking. It allows me to get back to my roots: Hating Fremont.

Kobe tell me how my ass tastes

by hauldog on Jul 7, 2008 11:15 PM PDT up 0 recs

Here's the real kicker-

According to Pythag, they were BETTER than a 99 win team. They were a 103 win team while the A’s were not. Neyer could not handle this, and sought reasons why we weren’t that good. Answer came back- Unstable BA driven-offense plus pitching above their heads.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 7, 2008 11:18 PM PDT up 0 recs

I read Neyer religiously until that season

I just couldn’t stomach reading all the excuses as to why the Angels couldn’t be as good as their record (and his precious statistics) said they were. It became clear that he would say or do anything to show that the Angels were not very good and that Darin Erstad was a waste of money.

It became really obvious that he had never watched an Angels game until the playoffs and he still did not want to watch the Angels because he fundamentally disagreed with their style of play. He lavishly praised Oakland and NY for taking walks and then waiting for some steroid injected player to hit a home run. I laughed so hard when NY and Oakland went out in the first round to teams that hit fewer home runs but ran the bases well and played fundamental defense.

by Rhapsode on Jul 8, 2008 12:07 AM PDT up 0 recs

Yep.

He seemed okay until then. But after that, it was like every year he became more and more bitter about the whole thing.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 8, 2008 12:15 AM PDT up 0 recs

Neyer

His top 50 players under 25 column was terrible.

For someone who helped perpetuate the sabermetric movement, he doesn’t tap into those statistics all that much.

A pipeline of talent, welcome to Anaheim.

by ClutchHomer on Jul 8, 2008 10:46 AM PDT up 0 recs

You will find that many folk believe most strongly

in those stats which support the belief system that they held when entered into the room.

by Stirrups on Jul 8, 2008 2:51 PM PDT up 0 recs

Check the Numbers

Overall…..
23rd in runs scored
22nd in hits
28th in DBL’s
21st in HR’s (got that right hauldog)
19th in BA
26th in OBP. OUCH!!!! hard to score runs if your not on base
23rd in SLG.
24th in OPS.
19th in K’s
29th in BB makes the OBP understandable
9th in SB
13th in SB%

AL#’s

11th in runs scored per game in the American League
Not so sure how hauldog has them at 4th in runs when they are 11 out of 14 in the AL

11th in team BA in the AL

Tied for last in DBL’s in the AL with TB Rays at 142

10th in SLG for the AL

12th in OBP for the AL (12th in BB)

Angels are were they are for one reason and one reason only Pitching and Defense.

Overall
2nd in SP wins
6th in ERA
1st in SV to be expected when your Offense can’t score runs but your SP has low era
26th in BB allowed
22nd in K’s
10th in BA against
6th in OBP allowed
8th in SLG allowed
8th in OPS allowed
2nd in QS
6th in WHIP
8th in K/BB

D is 8th in FPCT%

Willie Mays Aikens is FREeeeeeeee

by Angel Aviator on Jul 8, 2008 11:33 AM PDT up 0 recs

I think hauldog's numbers

were those of the 2002 World Series Champion Angels.

by TheTypingFiend on Jul 8, 2008 11:56 AM PDT up 0 recs

2002

Seattle I would like to thank you for sucking. It allows me to get back to my roots: Hating Fremont.

Kobe tell me how my ass tastes

by hauldog on Jul 8, 2008 1:01 PM PDT up 0 recs

Got Ya

2002 Number Forgotten…..

#1 in BA.
Least amount of K’s of any team in baseball
Best BA for pinch hitters (this year dead last)

Willie Mays Aikens is FREeeeeeeee

by Angel Aviator on Jul 8, 2008 3:49 PM PDT up 0 recs

Let's mail it in then...

why am I even watching the 2008 version?

by Downing Rules on Jul 8, 2008 3:56 PM PDT up 0 recs

Fan?

Question that is asked by many I am guessing.

Not sure about you, but I am sure tired of seeing them win the AL West (3 AL West Div titles in the last 5 years) and not be able to do much in the playoffs while management sits and makes no trades to help the current team when there is a need. The future is October isn’t it?

2 playoff wins since 2002 WS WIN

Willie Mays Aikens is FREeeeeeeee

by Angel Aviator on Jul 8, 2008 4:23 PM PDT up 0 recs

Dude...

how did you survive that abomination that is 1961 to 2002, then? ;)

Tired of division titles? Yikes. I’ll gladly take them and sign me up for season seats if my team can make it to the dance even 50% of the time.

by Downing Rules on Jul 8, 2008 4:34 PM PDT up 0 recs

It was tough

But I always knew that the Cowboy was trying to put a team on the field to win the whole thing and wasn’t happy with being Div winner.

Never said I was tired of the AL West Div title ,,,,,,said I was tired of seeing them win and not be able to do anything in the playoffs

2007 lost 3-0 to Red Sox
2005 Lost 3-1 White Sox
Won 3-2 Yankees
2004 Lost 3-0 Red Sox

Its 3 wins my mistake…....

Willie Mays Aikens is FREeeeeeeee

by Angel Aviator on Jul 8, 2008 11:40 PM PDT up 0 recs

No.

It’s still 4. 3 in ALDS 2005, plus 1in ALCS 2005 = 4.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 11, 2008 12:00 PM PDT up 0 recs

I agree with the flyboy

Maybe we’ve gotten too used to all this sucess recently, but I’m a veteran of the bad old days too and I still hate watching us lose in the playoffs.

Don't call me Desmond

by highlandhalo on Jul 12, 2008 7:44 AM PDT up 0 recs

I'd rather be there

and lose, than dream about it while sucking. You can choose to do one of them. After that, it’s up to luck and health at the time.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 12, 2008 9:11 PM PDT up 0 recs

2 playoff wins?

Try 4.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 8, 2008 5:50 PM PDT up 0 recs

Our chief weapon is...fear and surprise

Angels are were they are for one reason and one reason only Pitching and Defense.

Two reasons? :-)

The '56 LA Angels (PCL) cap logo...a classic.

by MurrietaMick on Jul 8, 2008 6:17 PM PDT up 0 recs

They won 99 games! That's excellent!

Not all that good?

by MH252525 on Jul 7, 2008 11:05 PM PDT up 0 recs

See above.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 7, 2008 11:12 PM PDT up 0 recs

Their Numbers

Their numbers assume that Moseley/Adenhart will be starting 10% of the team’s games in the 2nd half with the same results – in other words – less reliable than were the moon is in the zodiac…

by Rev Halofan on Jul 7, 2008 10:58 PM PDT 0 recs

also

Our RS/RA ratio also assumes GMJ would still play over Rivera in September games that matter. I have to assume if it gets close then GMJ’s AB’s will dissappear.

Anyway, with Frankie’s historic season we are likely to cruise into the playoffs this year.

But if we finish the year only like +25 in runs, the fron office had better not have Seattle Mariners disease and assume everything is fine for 2009.

by elricsi on Jul 8, 2008 10:06 AM PDT up 0 recs

I don't think they will

but on the other hand, I’m not sure what moves I want them to make. Overpaying yet another aging OF seems like a bad idea, and we have young talent locked up at just about every other position. The only big question is whether we’ll need to replace Kelvim at starter, and if we decide to do that, who we want to get.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 8, 2008 12:58 PM PDT up 0 recs