"K-Rod Not Worth $15 Mil"-Unnamed Baseball Sources

by rjcicc on Aug 25, 2008 1:19 PM PDT

An informal survey of a handful of baseball men have concluded that signing K-Rod to a $15mm per deal is a bad idea. The reason being that he doesn't throw as hard as he used and Booby T. sucked after he broke the record. It's only natural that K-Rod suffers a similar fate.

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Well...

they are right.

That doesn’t make him a bad reliever and he’ll be much better than Thigpen was going forward, but with his K rate and BB rate going in the wrong direction, I wouldn’t give him that kind of money either.

Jim Scully

Jim Scully Home
Haloville - Land of the Halos

by jimmuscomp on Aug 25, 2008 1:33 PM PDT 0 recs

I would make a generous offer to KRod, but not 15 million

The problem is that Mariano Rivera makes $15 million a year (right?) and Frankie wants to see himself as equivalent. Thus, even if the Angels makes a generous offer, maybe 4 years, 12 million a year with incentives, Frankie will want Rivera money. If the market gives it to him, he is gone, if not, he may decide that staying in Anaheim is his best move. While I can see the argument that the closer ‘s role is over-rated and over-valued, I still would want Frankie back because otherwise there is a question mark in that area and Arrendondo/Shields may or may not be available to step up to Frankie’s level. But again, the market will decide this.

Angels in 08!

by tanana40 on Aug 25, 2008 1:47 PM PDT up 0 recs

He should take whatever he can get.

If I were him, I would. Pitchers are notoriously injury prone and I’ve been hearing that he will be hurt since 2002. I think we should be smart about it. I would rather have him than not, but I’d rather spend it on Tex. If we had Tex all year, we wouldn’t have had so many close games.

GA GA he's the man, if he can't do it, no one can

by Moondoggy on Aug 25, 2008 1:54 PM PDT 0 recs

good point about the offense, I agree

Angels in 08!

by tanana40 on Aug 25, 2008 2:11 PM PDT up 0 recs

Pundits, scouts and bloggers do NOT determine the worth of ANY player.

Markets do. Danny Knobler needed some column inches to fill today. That is all.

I find the more interesting aspect of the story is NOT how Frankie’s performance metrics are wandering in the directions that sabre-doodles find unacceptable, therefore he is not worth that kind of money going forward.

No, I find it interesting that, fundamentally, the free agent market informs a guy like Frankie that just because the Yankees felt the need to give Rivera $15mill when they did, and for the reasons that they did, that automatically means that some other team has to find some similar reason to give a Frankie the same money or more come this winter.

Francisco Rodriguez: 196 career saves. 3 career Panthers, 1/3 as awesome as GMJ.

by Stirrups on Aug 25, 2008 2:16 PM PDT 0 recs

Agrreed

I think the Met’s give him 12-15 mill for 3-5 years. They might be bidding against themselves, but they’re reactionary strategy plays right into K-Rods hands. All this assuming Frankie comes through for us in the playoffs.

You are what you type.

by rjcicc on Aug 25, 2008 2:32 PM PDT up 0 recs

I despise the notion that bidding is secretive and bidders may compete with themselves.

Bids should be public. Then we would truly see proper “market rates”. I would bet that FA contracts would drop noticeably.

Francisco Rodriguez: 196 career saves. 3 career Panthers, 1/3 as awesome as GMJ.

by Stirrups on Aug 25, 2008 2:52 PM PDT up 0 recs

It shouldn't matter

This is a perfect storm. The Met’s have a glaring weakness, money to spend and a front office that has caved into media/fanbase demand in the past. For those reasons K-Rod may be worth $14/year.

You are what you type.

by rjcicc on Aug 25, 2008 3:40 PM PDT up 0 recs

I love it!

That’s like saying that Frankie is worth $14 milion a year just to shut up their fanbase. So his per appearance pitching stats would have absolutely nothing to do with anything.

Imagine being so bad at your job that you commit $70 million of your boss’ money just to keep the people you are supposed to be making happy from storming your boss’ office and having you ass canned. And you get away with it.

Francisco Rodriguez: 196 career saves. 3 career Panthers, 1/3 as awesome as GMJ.

by Stirrups on Aug 25, 2008 4:01 PM PDT up 0 recs

$$$

When you’re a FA, you don’t get the average offer. You get the most rediculous offer and take that.

The consensus seems to be that Frankie is the 3rd or 4th best closer in baseball, but teams will have A LOT of money free to spend this winter.

by elricsi on Aug 25, 2008 8:55 PM PDT up 0 recs

FRANKIE = MR. PLAYER OF THE WEEK IN THE AL...

Oh by the way…Linkie

Must have been a slow week in the AL eh?!

Whodathunk we would be rooting for a former Ranger come August...?

by K3YEROUT on Aug 25, 2008 2:44 PM PDT 0 recs

The only teams besides Angels likely to show interest...

Dodgers (Saito is injured and old, Broxton is struggling).
Mets (depending on how bad Wagner is injured).
Tigers (Jones ERA is 4.93 and injured, Rodney has blown 4 of 10 opportunities, Zumaya 1 for 5 in save opps).
Cubs (Wood has done well but is as fragile as cheap china).
Cards (Isringhausen, Franklin, Perez combined 31 for 47 in save opportunities).
Rangers (depending on results of Wilson’s surgery).
Yanks may pay a fortune for Frankie to set-up Rivera, then take over the closer role (new stadium=more $ for big contracts).

Translation? I doubt he will get offered $15 mil…

BTW, great typo “Booby T” in original post…(mind flash to wet T-shirt contest).

by sothball on Aug 25, 2008 3:06 PM PDT 0 recs

I'm gonna leave it in there for you.

You are what you type.

by rjcicc on Aug 25, 2008 3:41 PM PDT up 0 recs

Thanks. It provides a great image for my imagination.

by sothball on Aug 25, 2008 6:20 PM PDT up 0 recs

frankie wont take on the 8th inning

closers have egos.

a lot of those teams make sense. I could see the dodgers doing it just because its the type of crap theyd think is genius but would backfire bigtime

by ihearhowie2.0 on Aug 25, 2008 3:42 PM PDT up 0 recs

I agree with you to a point...

If you were offered $12 mil. a year as closer, or $15 mil a year as Rivera’s backup and eventual replacement, what would you take?

by sothball on Aug 25, 2008 6:22 PM PDT up 0 recs

Franky wants to close.

He’d take the closer job.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Aug 25, 2008 9:51 PM PDT up 0 recs

the homer in me says

he stays here for less to be the everyday closer.

in actuality im thinking he takes the money and runs. as a baseball fan i blame him and all the other money hungry a**holes that make it impossible to be loyal to a player on a particular team, as a fan of money i hope he gets as much as he can. but i hope the NY media eats him forcing him to hate it there thus making him totally regret selling his soul to the devil!

GO HALOS

There is an "Angel in the outfield" and his name is GA! ps. he is lazy but not a bum GO HALOS!

by wallispdub1 on Aug 26, 2008 9:26 AM PDT up 0 recs

Frankie will probably take the highest bidder

but only as a closer. Besides which, even with New York’s payroll, I don’t think they can’t afford $15 million per for a setup guy. Even if they did have that money, it seems to me they’d rather spend it on Tex.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Aug 26, 2008 9:35 AM PDT up 0 recs

I think you meant above ..."they CAN afford..."

I anticipate the Yankees will be the most active team by far this winter in FA/trade market:
-Lots of big $ contracts coming off the books this year.
-Brand new stadium & enhanced revenue stream.
-Steinbrenners can’t be happy with their position relative to the Rays, Bosux and even Toronto (3 games ahead of the BJs). Over the last couple of years they have only had be concerned with Boston. Not anymore…

I would not be surprised if they made top dollar offers to Teixeira, K-Rod, and Sabathia.

by sothball on Aug 26, 2008 10:01 AM PDT up 0 recs

Depends. They also need an OF and either a DH or a catcher. They could make top dollar offers to Tex

and CC, but even with all the money they have coming off, you have to thing that will be $50 million or so by itself. If they want Mussina to come back and pitch (and lets face it, Hughes and Kennedy are big question marks for next season) that gives them CC/Wang/Pettite/Joba/Mussina but probably costs another $10 million, maybe more. $60 million, and they still need that OF. Who do they go get? Big guys on the market will be Dunn and Burrell. Burrell will probably fetch $20 million himself.

All those acquisitions add up, and they still need either an everyday catcher or a DH depending on which one Posada can’t do. Do the Yankees have enough to do all that and drop $15 million on a setup guy? I think it’s more likely they convert either Hughes or Kennedy into a reliever—that or move Joba back to the pen to save his arm while letting Hughes come up and pitch in the 5th slot. Their bullpen hasn’t been all that much of a problem really. They’ve got some decent young guys like Edwar Ramirez and Jose Veras.

Bottom line, they just have too many other holes to fill to really make snagging K-Rod a priority. Which, again, I doubt they could do anyway since I’m pretty sure K-Rod wants to continue being a closer.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Aug 26, 2008 3:48 PM PDT up 0 recs

We will see in a few months...

..I really believe the Yanks ownership – and fans – have not been particularly happy with their post-season results over the last 7 years. When you add that they will be in a new stadium AND the emergence of the Rays AND the contracts expiring this year AND if they miss the playoffs this year…
I may be dead wrong (wouldn’t be the first time!) but I believe the Yanks will be extremely aggressive this winter. Veras and Ramirez are really good, but not proven.
I would not be surprised to see their payroll between $200 mil and $250 mil. They will have the enhanced revenue stream to afford it!
For K-Rod, you may be right. But everyone has their “price”. Again, if some offered you 20-25% more than the next highest “bidder”, what would you do?

by sothball on Aug 26, 2008 6:54 PM PDT up 0 recs

If I were K-Rod, I'd go close.

I’ve got a shot at being the closer with the most career saves in history as well as the single season record and therefore a shot at the HOF. No way do I waste two years making it easier for the guy who is almost certainly my greatest rival for this achievement to get those saves while getting none myself.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Aug 26, 2008 7:18 PM PDT up 0 recs

Given his ego, that may turn out to be 100% accurate...

…that same ego may push him to where he gets the highest dollar/longest contract. And that may be offered by the Yanks. How does he resolve the conflict? In 2 years he will be 28 years old…in his mind (perhaps) still plenty of time to set the all time saves record ( I think he will get the single season record this year).

by sothball on Aug 26, 2008 8:22 PM PDT up 0 recs

If the most dedicated Angels fans

Think K-Rod is not worth his fair market value, I wonder how many of the top Yankees’ brass feel the same way?

by BBFan1 on Aug 26, 2008 8:39 PM PDT up 0 recs

I have not seen a poll showing the votes of the most dedicated Angel fans.

If one exists, I want to see it.
I have no idea what Yankee brass are thinking. I speculated above that they may not be too happy with their team’s recent results…and they should have lots of $ and the incentive to pay top $ to fill several holes in next year’s roster.
I think they will be looking to have a strong first year in their new stadium. Yet they do not have the depth in the minors to fill their holes. What are the likely sources for better players? Trades and free agents are their only other solutions.
I think K-Rod will look real attractive to the Yankees. For reasons posted by Zu Long above, it may not be mutual. K-Rod may not want to be "runner-up for 2-3 years. We shall see.

by sothball on Aug 26, 2008 9:42 PM PDT up 0 recs

2 years where Mariano is steadily pulling ahead of him.

K-Rod is already about 280 saves behind. Two more years would likely make it around 350 or more.

At that point, If K-Rod saved 40 per year for 8 years (remember that K-Rod is only the second guy EVER to save forty just four years in a row), he’d still be short. Plus, as people have pointed out lower in the topic, Mariano’s arm isn’t showing much wear at the moment. Who’s to say the Yanks don’t extend him a third year, or a fourth?

On the other hand, he takes a closer job for a consistent, winning team, he can keep pace, or even continue to close on Rivera as he has these last four years.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Aug 26, 2008 9:35 PM PDT up 0 recs

Brewers, Astros, Mariners, Indians, TB-Rays, Rockies

ET CETERA

Everyone looks at the winning teams fo the past few years and sees them possessing an elite closer and someo team will decide to gamble the big bucks on Frankie.

Frankie will net $70 million MINIMUM contract this offseason – this is a no doubter barring injury – you can bet your life savings on it.

by Rev Halofan on Aug 25, 2008 3:50 PM PDT up 0 recs

Shouldn't that be "expensive china" for Wood?

Expensive stuff breaks if you look at it funny. Cheap china you can throw on the floor (think Corelle).

Angels fan since '67

by red floyd on Aug 25, 2008 4:05 PM PDT up 0 recs

LOL. OK how about a compromise at "easily breakable china"?

by sothball on Aug 25, 2008 6:16 PM PDT up 0 recs

Danny Knobler wrote a TOTAL croc of shit article

Danny Knobler is a fucktard cueball, probably a Mets fan trying to lower K-Rod’s market. Wow, CBS Sportsline gets “unnamed” baseball sources? Danny Knobler was talking to his prick again in between new prono DVDs, that is Danny Knob;er’s best source.

Unless he gets injured between now and Novmber 10, Frankie is going to get $70 – $75 million from somebody. Danny Knobler’s hand is going to get 75 billion sperm cells, so we’re even.

by Rev Halofan on Aug 25, 2008 3:47 PM PDT 0 recs

Speculation is for losers

According to the story, there are reseverations about signing him to along term deal, but isn’t that the risk with all pitchers?

Here is a telling statement from the story:
But has Rodriguez’s velocity varied that much? His fastball was only 91-92 mph Sunday, but another scout said he’s not convinced there’s any dropoff.

“His stuff is just as good as it was,” that scout said. “There’s no question in my mind. When I saw him, he was 94-95. The biggest difference is his changeup, which is one of the best in baseball. It really drops, and some guys think it’s a split, but it’s not. He has amazing arm speed.”

by BBFan1 on Aug 25, 2008 4:55 PM PDT 0 recs

I would rather the Angels spend the money...

on keeping Teix and locking up Lackey long term

Write to the Angels front office. Get Tim Salmon's number 15 retired!

by KingF15h on Aug 25, 2008 5:00 PM PDT 0 recs

I think a "scout" wrote about Frankie's stuff last August at HH

http://www.halosheaven.com/2007/8/18/1226/92681
What a stupid dumb ass! ;)

From September 2006, watch Frankie’s 42nd save on Sept.14 and his 47th save on Sept.30. Fastball has great zip and the slider is very sharp.

Sept 2006 Angels Video Archive

Ain't no stoppin' us now. We got the groove!

by Fan Since 1981 on Aug 25, 2008 6:10 PM PDT 0 recs

I would be careful opening that skeleton closet too wide if I were you!

There are probably way too many things people would hate to be reminded that they wrote.

by 44FAN on Aug 25, 2008 6:30 PM PDT up 0 recs

So to use your logic from last season

the fact that post ASB he’s got 3 BB, and 21 Ks in 13.1 innings means he’s just fine right?

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Aug 25, 2008 9:59 PM PDT up 0 recs

Danny Knobler's article is one-year late

He just wants to create a stir because of Frankie’s pending free agency.

Frankie’s change up this year has been sensational, hence the much improved post ASB numbers compared to a year ago.

But my concerns are about the drop in velocity on both the fastball and slider. Watch the Sept.30 47th save video of Frankie; blazing 95 mph fastball and a wicked 84 mph slider. Fangraphs data backs up my scouting take:

2006 Frankie fastball: 94.8 mph
2008 Frankie fastball: 91.8 mph

2006 Frankie slider: 84.2 mph
2008 Frankie slider: 79.5 mph

Ain't no stoppin' us now. We got the groove!

by Fan Since 1981 on Aug 26, 2008 7:23 AM PDT up 0 recs

Except that the 84.2 MPH slider is the anomaly

2005- 79.7
2006- 84.2
2007- 80.4
2008- 79.5

It seems fairly clear that 2006 is the outlier, rather than 2007 or 2008.

Further, we know Frankie’s diminished fastball speed is partially a result of his April ankle problems. His average fastball speed has risen steadily since then (as have his K/9 which topped 10 just recently), typically sitting 93-94 on gameday logs.

2005- 93.3
2006- 94.8
2007- 93.6
2008- 91.8

Frankie experienced as much variance 2005-2006 as he has 2005-2008; +/- 1.5.

Finally, if Frankie’s changeup is proving so dramatic, wouldn’t that be more of an argument for keeping him, since he’s evolved such an effective new weapon?

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Aug 26, 2008 8:25 AM PDT up 0 recs

I'm all for keeping Frankie; the K rate of 10 per 9 is a good sign.

I just hope he can sustain the zip on his fastball over the next few years.

Mariano Rivera must be a freak. Despite being in his mid-to-late 30’s, he has sustained the velocity on his bread-and-butter pitch; the cut fastball:

2005: 93.0
2006: 93.2
2007: 93.2
2008: 92.7

Ain't no stoppin' us now. We got the groove!

by Fan Since 1981 on Aug 26, 2008 10:06 AM PDT up 0 recs

That or he just hasn't been injured lately. And maintaining high fastball speed doesn't mean retained effectiveness

look at Wagner this year. 94.5 and it doesn’t mean squat. Young guys seem to show a lot of year-to-year variation though, and having your mechanics tinkered with can make a big difference. Ervin’s Fastball started out at 93.4 in 2005, dipped to 92.2 last year, and this year it shot back up to 94.3.

Johan Santana was at 92.4 in 2005, hit 93.1 in 2006, then dropped to 91.7 in 07 followed by 91.2 this year.

John Lackey and Scott Shields are comparative machines, with Shields remaining between 92.0 and 92.7, while Lackey has been between 91.4 and 90.9. over those for years.

Bottom line is, while not particularly encouraging, the variation between the ‘06 and ’08 versions of Frankie’s fastball isn’t that uncommon and doesn’t necessarily mean he’s hiding an injury.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Aug 26, 2008 4:07 PM PDT up 0 recs