Pythagorean magic numbers
I never liked magic numbers because it doesn't really tell you what a team needs to do to clinch. It always seems to sound harder that it is. Here's what I mean:
At the time of this post, Angels are 71-43. 162-114 games played = 48 games left. The Angels are currently 11.5 games ahead so that means that 48-11 = 37 wins guarantees an Angel post-season.
What's 37 wins add up to? Well 37/48 = .771 winning percentage. I don't think such a high winning percentage has been achieved over a 48 game span since Honas Wagner was playing and maybe even before that. So 37 doesn't mean much because it depends on what other teams are doing.
After most teams had played 48 games this year the highest winning percentage in the league was .612. So assume the Rangers get hot and post a .612 WP from here on out. That .612*48 ~ 30 wins. So in that context, the Angels need to only post 30-11 = 19 wins => 19/48 ~ .396 WP to clinch
Not good enough? Let's say Texas goes hog wild and posts a .677 WP. That ~33 wins requiring 22 Angel victories to clinch or a .458 WP.
My pythagorean magic number is 22.
And for those playing at home, in 1995 the Angels went .355 in the last 31 games of the 145 games season while the Aquamen when .677 WP. Fewer games left required a poorer performance.
In summary, Keep the motor warm and play it one game at time baby!
This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan and may or may not be a reflection of human evolution, divine enlightenment or nine cans into a 12-pack.
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screw the division
What matters is that we keep homefield. Every other team in the AL absolutely, positively, SUCKS on the road. We might be good on the road, but if we force Boston, Tampa, Chicago, whoever, to play us in Anaheim, we’re at an enormous strategic advantage. Not winning homefield last year ended up being a huge problem, and I’m praying that Scioscia realizes it’s a big deal and doesn’t take his foot off the gas.
http://inplaynoouts.blogspot.com/ - A blog about teams I like, written by me.
by Carl Johnson on Aug 7, 2008 12:02 PM PDT 0 recs
Just FYI
37-11 in the last 48 games HAS happened more recently than Honus Wagner. ;-)
Surely we all remember the 2002 A’s and their 20 game win streak? With 48 to go, their record was 66-48. They went EXACTLY 37-11 in the last 48 to achieve a 103-59 record.
~Till the Halo burns out...
by Zu Long on Aug 7, 2008 12:22 PM PDT 0 recs
There is one problem with your initial computation on the magic number
Go here for a full expanation Magic Number.
The magic number is a combination of Angel wins and Ranger losses that are needed to win the division. So, if we win 25 more games to get us to 96 wins, then we clinch the division when the Rangers lose 12 more games.
And as of right now, our magic number to clinch home field through the playoffs is 47
Pain heals, Chicks dig scars, Glory lasts Forever!
by billhune on Aug 7, 2008 12:46 PM PDT 0 recs
Thanks for the sanity. Saved me a lot of typing.
Francisco Rodriguez: 191 career saves. 2 career Panthers, tied with Hector Carrasco.
by Stirrups on
Aug 7, 2008 12:49 PM PDT
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As ozzie guillen would say... Psssht Please!!!
http://www.obsoletecomputermuseum.org/magic/magicexpo.shtml
The wiki page you refer to has a footnote link to a page that uses my equation. When the number of games to be played is the same then you can do the calculation using wins alone.
It’s logical. At the end of the year, if you played the same number of games, then your lead in the standings is the difference in wins.
by melvintoast on
Aug 7, 2008 2:07 PM PDT
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