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Frankie in Decline?

Comparing Francisco Rodriguez to Francisco Rodriguez is sort of like writing an anti-drug pamphlet while downing a twelve-pack, but statistical analysts have to throw a wet blanket on everyone's party or they would not have anything of value to contribute.

Link 10 months ago 4323_1105939621665_1622022962_290465_5300842_n_tiny Rev Halofan Comment 80 comments 0 recs |

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Wait a minute

Frankie is losing speed off his fastball and in response he has adopted new pitches in his arsenal which are working well and how the hell is that a decline. It strikes me that he is actually getting better as the physical prowess slows down from a superhuman level to a merely one-in-a-billion level.

And that is a “DECLINE” for Frankie? Wow, what excuses of tragic universal unfairness will the great white sphincter of Papelbon be afforded when his labrum turns to hamburger?

by Rev Halofan on Sep 4, 2008 11:58 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

oh i know that the save is not allowed to even be spoken of....

…in the same sentence as your of sacred sack of statistical shit, but the motherfucker just became the youngest player ever to 200 Saves so stuff that in your Saves-Are-BS-Pipe and smoke it.

by Rev Halofan on Sep 4, 2008 11:35 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I called Frankie a MF, I did not curse at anyone.

You are better at analyzing pitching than at analyzing sentence structure, I will give you that much.

by Rev Halofan on Sep 4, 2008 11:53 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Holy cow...

If you noticed, I said curse “at,” the preposition “at” indicating “in the general direction of.” Nowhere did I say you called him that; but you did curse in his general direction, seeing as how the word “MFer” is a curse, and the statement in which you used it was pointedly directed at RJ Anderson.

My statement was merely elucidating the position that when engaged in intellectual debate with others, it is generally best to refrain from gross hyperbole and obscene vernacular in making your point.

I feel the need, the need...for speed!

by Gorbachav5 on Sep 4, 2008 11:58 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Why refrain

from the whole gamut of debating tools avaialble when stat wonks run quickly to the trendy algebraic equations that measure 3rd decimal differences?

You enter into a debate and stop debating to lay the ground rules for a debate because your arguments are not that great.

by Rev Halofan on Sep 4, 2008 12:01 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That's kind of silly

on both sides. First, “statistical analysts have to throw a wet blanket on everyone’s party or they would not have anything of value to contribute” is ridiculous on its face; the whole point is to find out what a player’s real value is.

There was a pretty good BTF thread about this that I’m not going to dig up, but basically what Peter Bendix misses is, as you mentioned in the thread, the fact that Frankie was injured early in the season, and that he’s added a changeup to his repertoire, so integrating that has probably cost him a bit earlier in the year, but he’s getting more comfortable with it as the season has progressed. As a result, Frankie’s K/9 rate has actually trended up month-by-month this year:

April: 7.23
May: 8.93
June: 9.73
July: 12.00
August: 14.73

He’s on pace to finish the season with a monthly rate about in line with his career norms.

Witty .sig goes here.

by scareduck on Sep 4, 2008 10:35 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Damn you!

Your analysis just used statistics to throw a wet blanket on Peter Bendix’s party.

Francisco Rodriguez: 200 career saves. 4 career Panthers, almost 1/2 as awesome as GMJ.

by Stirrups on Sep 4, 2008 10:53 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Small Sample Size

So 65 innings is not enough to pay the man what he is worth but it is enough to crucify him on the cross of that outlier, hair-splitting xFIP numbers-crunch.

His decline was an ankle injury. He has been ball-busting brilliant since the ankle healed. How is that so impossible to understand? Oh, you have to think outside the rigid “start-of-the-season-BOX” and that would require creativity that your numerical orthodoxy just does not bring to the table in analyzing the game of baseball.

by Rev Halofan on Sep 4, 2008 11:41 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

To add to that (from Waiver Wire)

4. xFIP (at least as used here) is based on just one season’s data. A weighted average of multiple seasons would probably be better.

5. Above all…this is an art, not a science. No single stat can show everything…for example, was the pitcher playing with an injury? Did he learn a new pitch in the offseason? Its trying to put all these factors together that make fantasy baseball fun to play!

Francisco Rodriguez: 200 career saves. 4 career Panthers, almost 1/2 as awesome as GMJ.

by Stirrups on Sep 4, 2008 11:48 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sure it's an art

But it can be measured scientifically with incredible accuracy. The guy’s article called it Frankie’s worst season. And all the evidence he provided indicates that it is. Nowhere does he say Frankie is done as a pitcher. He says that his decline this season should be considered when offering him a contract. A team that doesn’t consider it would be stupid. But you’re right in that there’s a larger body of evidence to consider: Frankie has been very very good for several years. Some team is still going to pay him a lot of money, but his recent decline is a possible warning sign that that strategy may not be good.

The other point is that he has NOT been any more ball-busting brilliant in the last few months. His ER’s by month:

April: 5
May: 1
June: 2
July: 5
Aug.: 3 (with 2 unearned runs)

That doesn’t tell me he’s gotten appreciably better. And he’s not throwing any harder, which I mentioned earlier. He’s a closer, so our sample size is pretty good at this point, and it’s pretty clear that, barring an incredible September, he’ll have his worst year as the Angels’ closer. That’s still better than all but like 3 or 4 other closers, so it’s good enough for me for this year. But not good enough to sign him to a long-term deal.

I feel the need, the need...for speed!

by Gorbachav5 on Sep 4, 2008 12:08 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

"And all the evidence he provided indicates that it is."

No it doesn’t.

Francisco Rodriguez: 200 career saves. 4 career Panthers, almost 1/2 as awesome as GMJ.

by Stirrups on Sep 4, 2008 12:16 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes it does...

We can do this all day, but I’m not sure it will get us anywhere. Give me a quote in his article that shows me that this is not Frankie’s worst season.

I feel the need, the need...for speed!

by Gorbachav5 on Sep 4, 2008 12:22 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

“Rodriguez has still been very good this year; but, save total aside, he has also been very lucky.”

The first part of that sentence is subjective (define “very good”). The second part of that sentence reflects a common bias that dismisses actual results. The last part of that sentence is, again, subjective.

Collectively, in that particular sentence the author is suggesting that Frankie is accomplishing his duties to a high degree and has realized fantastic results – neither point indicating that this is his worst season ever – and then excuses those factors by pointing to “luck” as the reason that the outcomes defy his calculator.

Francisco Rodriguez: 200 career saves. 4 career Panthers, almost 1/2 as awesome as GMJ.

by Stirrups on Sep 4, 2008 12:35 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He has made up his mind

and then he goes and looks for the numbers to prove his hunch.

by Rev Halofan on Sep 4, 2008 12:39 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yep. Pretty common, too.

The other common problem I keep crashing into when reading statistical analysis of baseball is how many influential factors on outcomes are conveniently ignored. For example, the author ignores COMPLETELY the known fact that Frankie worked in the offseason to revamp his delivery in an attempt to extend his career (by preventing that long-predicted arm blowout that his old delivery was supposed to guarantee!)

For instance: gee, new delivery style to EXTEND his career enables ongoing success proven over a GREATER number of appearances, albeit with different style points, and that is not something that a team might want to invest in quite heavily?

Francisco Rodriguez: 200 career saves. 4 career Panthers, almost 1/2 as awesome as GMJ.

by Stirrups on Sep 4, 2008 12:51 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Given the choice

I’ll take the 26-year-old who still throws 94, still has a devastating slider, and has kept his K/BB rate at the same level over the 26-year old who is worried enough about his arm breaking down that he needs to change his delivery. Yes, that shows intelligence and work ethic, but it is also a warning sign that this guy may have health issues in the future, no matter what he does. Pitching is one of the least natural motions the human body can perform. Any evidence that there is more risk of a breakdown than normal should be met with caution before handing out millions of dollars.

Here are the points Bendix makes:
K/9: down (bad)
BB/9: Up (bad)
xFIP: Up (bad)
Velocity: Down (bad)
Movement: Down (bad)
OPS against w/ runners on: Down (good!)

Bendix attributes that last one to luck. Even if you feel that it’s not related to luck and that somehow Frankie has figured out how to pitch even better with runners on base than he used to, that’s still a lot of bad points compared to one good point. All of those other things you mention: him being injured, him tweaking his delivery to help avoid injury, etc.; none of those have prevented him from going down in all those categories.

All the author is doing is making his case that this is Frankie’s worst season and that some of the factors involved should be considered more than save totals when handing him a new contract. He’s clearly not making the point that Frankie is bad. That would be stupid and wrong. So it’s okay for him to say Frankie is still very good because he’s not trying to prove otherwise. I agree with you that Bendix should have mentioned the ankle injury in the interest of full disclosure. But whether he mentioned it or not, that would not detract from his point that this is Frankie’s worst season so far.

I feel the need, the need...for speed!

by Gorbachav5 on Sep 4, 2008 1:18 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Except it's not.

2003 is still much worse in just about every category beyond FB speed. He leaves it out because apparently it’s convenient for him to forget that 2003 was a part of K-Rod’s career.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Sep 4, 2008 2:46 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Are you ignoring trend analysis?

Yeah, Frankie had a bad 2003. Then he recovered and was amazing from 2004 – 2006. This tells us a few things. 1. He got better as a pitcher. 2. This is probably his baseline, considering how consistently awesome he was during those years.

So last year he was a little bit worse. No big deal, could have been a number of factors, including bad luck, but all of his peripherals decreased relative to his studly years. It wasn’t a very large decrease, so it didn’t warrant much attention.

But then his peripherals decreased AGAIN this year. Now you start to worry about a trend because it’s happened two years in a row. As for his K/BB, sure it’s been better the last month and a half, but immediately before the All Star break, his K/BB was 7/6. Now who’s cherry picking stats?

Seriously, he’s having the worst season of his career. You can make the claim that it’s because of his injury. I can’t find any data that shows how much his fastball has increased in velocity over the past couple of months (if you have a link, please post it). I do think it has gone up, but he was at 89 – 91 again about a week ago for two games straight. And that was according to the TV gun, which is usually fast. So I’m not convinced that all of the lost velocity was because of his ankle injury.

And all of that is rather beside the point – this has been his worst season to date, whether it’s because of a fluke injury or because he’s actually a cyborg who’s battery is running low. Looking at the stats, there is an indication that his control is getting better and he’s striking more guys out over the last month. So at the end of September, he could be close to his normal dominant self and we write it off as a fluke thing. But right now, at this moment, this has been his worst season and it should be intensely scrutinized before throwing him a huge contract.

I feel the need, the need...for speed!

by Gorbachav5 on Sep 4, 2008 3:18 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm not ignoring anything.

YOU are continuing to treat 2003 like it doesn’t exist (ie, stated that 2008 is the worst season of his career), which I find fairly laughable.

Further, fangraphs demonstrates that 2006 was the only year K-Rod’s slider went 84 MPH. 2005 (79.7), 2007 (80.4), 2008 (79.5) all seem to demonstrate that this was a fluke.

If we look at fastball speed, we see that in 2005 it was 93.3. It jumped to 94.8 in 2006, sank to 93.6 in 2007, and now to 91.8 in 2008. The variation between 2005 and 2006 is the same as between 2005 and 2008; +/- 1.5. If K-Rod’s fastball speed has risen in the past, it can conceivably do so again. The point is that fluctuations of this magnitude have occured before in K-Rod’s career.

Finally, the very word “worst” is entirely inaccurate because you are using PREDICTIVE stats, to measure RESULTS. Frankies predictive indicators are the worst since 2003. Frankies PRODUCTION is the best it has ever been, possibly the best of any closer ever.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Sep 4, 2008 3:44 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Baseball analysis IS NOT SCIENCE

But I will not argue that retarded sentiment.

Your monthly numbers do not factor in # of appearances, but okay, cool, you win.

But a pitcher who’ speed is waning coming up with new pitching methods is NOT a pitcher in decline. I don’t want to play the race card, but your whole argument seems predicated on Frankie being a Venezuelan Power-Monkey who cannot think and analyze and strategize on the mound and is therefore losing his ability to dominate because he is aging naturally.

The fact that he is dedicated to thinking about what to do out there is a credit to his intellect, something that has not been shown to decline in players.

by Rev Halofan on Sep 4, 2008 12:46 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wow!

That was a bombshell. Totally misguided and off-base, but at least it had shock value. Congratulations on that.

If you scroll up a bit, I actually praised his ability to develop a changeup. I used the word “talented,” but I have no problem if you interpret that to include intelligence. I absolutely agree with you that for him to develop a changeup (and a good one at that) at this point in his career takes a lot of intelligence, and it shows that he is aware of his own limitations as a pitcher.

It’s also his first full year using the changeup, so it’s definitely possible that he can improve that pitch and get back to his normal self. But this season, it has not been effective enough to countereffect the loss of velocity on his fastball and break on his slider. And that, among other things, is why this has been his worst season.

I watch the games same as you guys do. And I’m really happy that we have a great closer. But I’ve been more worried when Frankie comes in the game this season than ever before. He’s putting a lot of guys on base and doesn’t seem to be as confident or in control as he has been in the past. The statistics support that notion.

I feel the need, the need...for speed!

by Gorbachav5 on Sep 4, 2008 12:57 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Fair Enough

That is quite a finer line than “The Sky is Falling” than it appears to be on the surface.

by Rev Halofan on Sep 4, 2008 1:07 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Bottom line

I am simply agreeing with the author that this is Frankie’s worst season, and as a result, I would be very nervous about the Angels giving him an expensive, long-term contract. Frankie’s still very, very good, and hopefully he will remain so through at least the end of this year.

I feel the need, the need...for speed!

by Gorbachav5 on Sep 4, 2008 1:20 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Treat Him Like Lackey and Baby him for 2 months

and he would “measure up” for the stat crowd, especially because he would not be chasing that inconveniently pesky SAVES record.

by Rev Halofan on Sep 4, 2008 2:49 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

...
But a pitcher who’ speed is waning coming up with new pitching methods is NOT a pitcher in decline. I don’t want to play the race card, but your whole argument seems predicated on Frankie being a Venezuelan Power-Monkey who cannot think and analyze and strategize on the mound and is therefore losing his ability to dominate because he is aging naturally.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 4, 2008 2:28 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wait, ER are a "legitimate" stat now?

Well, his ERA for the season certainly not his worst ever, so I guess Bendix was wrong.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Sep 4, 2008 2:44 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

xFIP is a bullshit stat.

Every year it claims John Lackey is really a 4+ run/game pitcher. Every following year it is dead wrong.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Sep 4, 2008 2:37 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Nobody's perfect

Every other top closer has some issue or other too.

Frankie is in the top tier, and is going to get and deserve an enormous annual salary.

But relievers can go from the penthouse to the outhouse in a real hurry, so it is extremely risky to give him a long term deal. (5 years or more)

by elricsi on Sep 4, 2008 11:06 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I kind of looked into this a couple days ago

Here’s what I found…

Frankie and the Nervous Save

This doesn’t prove anything, or if Frankies in decline or not. It just compares him to the other closers in the league (this year’s numbers). I think K-Rod’s awesome, but I don’t think ANY reliever is worth what he’s going to get this off-season.

I was uncool before uncool was cool.

by WiHaloFan on Sep 4, 2008 1:14 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Geez, Rev

I dig you, man, but don’t let your emotional response get the better of you on this one.

You have done what you accuse the writer of doing. You have determined that Frankie is a stud, and you will ignore and disparage stats that tend to discredit that view.

To ignore this info when possibly $75 million is at stake would be foolish in the extreme…..

…BUT let’s also see how his full -season stats turn out.

by LittleCupcakes on Sep 4, 2008 1:54 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

hen they show a stat that measures the meat I will be open to that stat, but all they have is a stat to measure the fat and Frankie cut the fat off his steak a long long time ago.

by Rev Halofan on Sep 4, 2008 2:50 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

statistics or not

the guy is still going to break the saves record this season. it seems more or less counterintuitive that this is his worst season yet. If Frankie’s worst season produces 60 saves, then why is that such a bad thing? I understand dropped velocities and dropped K rates, but there are still explanations for all of those. I don’t think any reliever is worth as much money as k-rod wants or rivera gets. But the thing with stats, and this is true in all facets of life, is that you can manipulate them to say whatever the hell you want. We can debate sample size et al all day and it still means nothing. The guy is still out there producing and by adding more pitches (changeup) to his repertoire he’s trying to stay a step ahead of the hitters, and thats really what we all want.

by linkbruin on Sep 4, 2008 2:16 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No one wants to give him any credit

Admittedly, K-Rod has struggled with seemingly a lot of ‘NS,’ but he has something like 54 saves to show for all the ninth inning hijinks he puts us all through. Somehow he has been both lucky and good to rack up so many saves.

For his supposed decline [in his greatest season as a professional], K-Rod has done what all successful Major Leaguers do – make adjustments.

I have a feeling if this was Troy Percival, Jonathan Papelbon or Joe Nathan having the same season – people would be more ardent is saying this guy [with all these crazy saves] was money. No one would be looking as hard at the periphal stats, to be break him down, to detract from a historical season [as far as a modern era closer is concerned].

by BBFan1 on Sep 5, 2008 3:35 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

agreed

They reject “stats” and favor peripheral measurements of .000x relationships and imply that anyone who does not share in their love of splitting hairs is not deeply into the sport.

by Rev Halofan on Sep 5, 2008 3:56 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

word error above

SHOULD READ: They reject "SAVES"

by Rev Halofan on Sep 5, 2008 4:05 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

who is "they"?

personally, i don’t think trusting the numbers is required to be a passioante fan

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 6, 2008 7:27 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

actually, I doubt this is true. although I can't speak for all "people"

many people, including Peter, have pointed out how Percival has benefited from the same sort of luck as KRod this year (and is a much worse pitcher). even though Percy’s something like 25/27 in save situations, it’s not the smart move to keep him as the closer going forward, since his skills put him as about a 4.25 to 4.50 ERA guy. that will hurt in the playoffs.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 6, 2008 7:26 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I hope he declines like this every year...

setting records every single time (and, hopefully, hoisting WS trophies). Thing of beauty.

by Downing Rules on Sep 4, 2008 2:38 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

HERE IS SOME FOOD FOR THOUGHT

Had this not been a contract year for Frankie, suppose the Angels approach him rolling over his ankles like they approached John Lackey’s “forearm strain” … Suppose they shut Frankie down in April and nurse him back to perfect health in May.

The article would be titled THE BEST SEASON OF FRANKIE’S CAREER

Frankie will decline. But he has not declined in a manner drastic enough to be considered “a decline” and using hairsplitting measurements of small-sample size nuances really predicts absolutely nothing.

by Rev Halofan on Sep 4, 2008 2:47 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

ribbit, ribbit.

Francisco Rodriguez: 200 career saves. 4 career Panthers, almost 1/2 as awesome as GMJ.

by Stirrups on Sep 4, 2008 5:05 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

This is Frankie's Greenest season

He is more environmentally conscious in 2008 than in any prior seasons. His changeup uses less energy.

by Rev Halofan on Sep 4, 2008 5:41 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ahead of the curve.

Or is it still fast enough to be a slider?

Francisco Rodriguez: 200 career saves. 4 career Panthers, almost 1/2 as awesome as GMJ.

by Stirrups on Sep 4, 2008 5:55 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i was going to address some specific points made on this thread

but i think it’s just more productive to point out that there’s a more mature discussion of the topic over at the original Beyond the Boxscore post.

the point about KRod’s injury is a good one — there’s an explanation for this season being down from the previous few and gives hope that KRod should be his same old self next year. but 2008 IS still definitely worse than every season but 2003.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 5, 2008 2:46 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's funny how excited Bendix is...

about getting a whole 27 comments to his post.

I was uncool before uncool was cool.

by WiHaloFan on Sep 5, 2008 4:37 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

BtB is a small blog trying to grow

it’s tough to build a community when you don’t have a common team to draw you together. how about supporting a fellow sbnation author?

i’d like to thank Rev for linking to the article, even if it was to tear it apart. the whole injury observation was an important addition to the story.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 6, 2008 7:29 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

all that decline...

…and he’s arguably the best closer in the game. i’ll take it!

by yeswecan on Sep 5, 2008 3:57 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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