Willits: Deserving of the hate?
by PhiSlamma on Jan 16, 2009 10:59 AM PST
207 comments
Willits has “proven” just as much in AAA ball as, say, Morales has.
2006: .327/.448/.874
2008: .378/.452/.939
Willits spent all of 2007 with the Angels, posting a very respectable .293/.391/.735 earning himself ROY votes. He received two second place votes and 5 third place votes.
I would say the Angels need exactly what Willits offers when he has full playing time.
In 2008, just one year removed from his outstanding rookie year, Willits was displaced by an outfield with absolutely no room for him. The signing of Hunter basically bumped Willits to the horrible agony of “too valuable to send down but no room to start” zone.
Even with his extremely limited playing time (only 82 at-bats) he posed a .321 OBP.
That OBP of .321 puts him ahead of:
GMJ
Aybar
Rivera
S Rod
Mathis
Morales
Wood
I actually think with some playing time and some consecutive at-bats instead of pinch running duty for GA we could have an actual leadoff hitter. Figgins is completely expendable with a productive Willits, and with a reasonable arbitration avoidance contract agreement not too long ago, is very attractive to other teams.
Now, assuming his offense is worthy of the lineup we should also take into consideration other factors
Defense:
With full playing time Reggie has a RF (range factor) of 2.51. Since this is hard to explain its easier to just compare this stat to other outfielders.
Willits: 2.51 (in 07 with consistent playing time)
Torii: 2.67
GA: 2.00
Vlad: 2.02
GMJ: 2.11
Rivera: 1.80
There are other defensive sabermetrics, but these basically illustrate my point. Reg is somewhere near Torii in range, and completely blows Rivera out of the water.
Since there are no real reliable arm stats, we have to go on opinion. His arm is less powerful than Rivera's, but slightly more arm than GA when he left. I never felt he had a "Jane Damon" arm, but not really a cannon. We can call it league average for sake of argument.
His place in the lineup:
Obviously the outfield is not full of space and playing time opportunities. However with a few lineup changes he could easily fit.
Trading Figgins and possibly packaging either Ayabr or Izturis could land some significant young talent. Move Rivera into the DH spot and Wilits into left the lineup would look like this:
Willits- LF
Aybar/Izturis- SS
Vlad- RF
Torii- CF
Rivera- DH
Napoli-C
Morales- 1B
Kendrick - 2B
Wood - 3B
Rotating Willits and Rivera with Vlad or Hunter as they need rest would work perfectly. So there is a definite spot for Mr. Willits.
Willits represents everything the Angels are not at the moment; walking, taking pitches, and make pitchers work. I believe with more playing time Reg can be more productive than not, and I think he has shown this in the past. Since the Halos are going with a youth monvement this year, may as well go balls out.
What do you crazy kids think?
This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.
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I'm one of the few (I think) who agrees.
Great analysis. I’m surprised how often Willits is called worthless on this blog…usually by the same people who demand that Brandon Wood play full time.
Now, I understand potential and, certainly, Wood has plenty. And I am NOT implying that Willits is a better player. What I’m saying is that Willits has shown his worth when he played and Wood has not…yet. So I’m just surprised how often Willits is berated as being an awful player while Wood is celebrated as the second coming of Evan Longoria.
When Reggie played full time, he was more than competent. His greatest plus was leading off and forcing the pitcher to show an array of pitches before the second batter even came to the plate. Is he ideal? Of course not. But he adds good depth as a #5 outfielder.
I don't know...I'm makin' this up as I go.
by ArkAngel on Jan 16, 2009 11:10 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I dont know
He seems ideal to me, especially on a team whose OBP is a collective .330.
That .391 would be mighty ideal to me.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
by PhiSlamma on Jan 16, 2009 11:19 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The thing is, Willits is not a .391 OBP player
I think he can be a around a career .345-.360 OBP. He had a very high BABIP in 07. His BABIP in the minors was always high though, so i feel confident taht it will continue to remain above average. I think he is valuable especially because of his abilities to leadoff. Is he the solution to all our problems? No, but that doesnt mean he has nothing to contribute.
Lets go angels
by anaheim angels on Jan 16, 2009 5:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Agree with the anti-hate, not with the better-than-Figgins
Figgins plays all over the diamond, and you know for a fact he won’t hit .220. That’s not so w/ Reggie. Also, it’s not entirely clear that Reggie has responded to the AL realizing you can throw strike 1-strike 2 right down the plate before he ever takes his bat off his shoulder.
I like him very much as a 4th outfielder, and even more as a 5th.
by mattwelch on Jan 16, 2009 11:14 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Agreed:
I think a turning point in his entire career was when he had an interview with a ESPN reporter when he was considered one of the front runners of ROY. The reporter asked him what his strategy was, and he basically said: “I dont swing at anything until I get one I can hit”
I think other teams at this point realized, “Wait, yeah, he never swings at anything, especially breaking balls for strikes!”
I think we need to dump Figgins to give Wood a shot at a fulltime job, and this is a viable option.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
by PhiSlamma on Jan 16, 2009 11:17 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The league adjusted to Willits. They play him shallow. He can't hit it over their heads.
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 16, 2009 11:20 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
His bat is not adequate to play a corner spot, and his D is not adequate to play center.
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 16, 2009 11:20 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I disagree
we need offense where we can get it, anything near a .380 OBP I would take no matter where he plays.
His defense is actually quite good, as well.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
by PhiSlamma on Jan 16, 2009 11:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He is not going to bring anything near a 380 OBP. You are dreaming.
He can’t adapt to the leagues adjustments
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 16, 2009 11:35 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Based on what?
in 07 when the league adjusted to him, roughly in July when he posted a .231/.337/.606 line I would agree, but he bounced back to post a .250/.367/.643 line in August.
No reason for him not to adjust against the league slightly more from there and get in the .380 OBP range.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
by PhiSlamma on Jan 16, 2009 11:38 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He had a BABIP of over .360 in 2007.
.290 is league average. And I don’t care how much you walk, if you have an ISO of .050, then you should not be playing anywhere in the outfield.
replacement level analysis
by 442 on Jan 16, 2009 4:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Position should not matter really the power.
I posted this before on a different post, and ill post it here as well.
Willits does have a career minor league .397 OBP
Looking at his minor league numbers, and making a few calculations for BABIP, he has a career .360 BABIP, so his .363 BABIP of 2007 may lie closer to his true talent level. Then again, fielders and pitchers are better in the MLB, so i think calling for a .345 BABIPish season could be about right.
If he was forced into a starting role for much of 2008, as he was for 2007, his numbers would look something like this…
.281 AVG/.381 OBP. Im not sure exactly how to calculate SLG because im not sure that the hits that would be taken away would be singles, doubles or triples, etc… but figure it in the .330 range. But as an emergency starter or as an emergency leadoff man those numbers arent bad, or even awful for a starter. He also has value on the basepaths as well. So hes no allstar or even good player, but hes not as bad as most people claim he is
Lets go angels
by anaheim angels on Jan 16, 2009 5:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Positional Adjustments
People smarter than me have figured out that because positions like LF, RF or 1B are easier to play, you dock those players’ stats a few notches down to properly calculate value compared to less prolific positions, such as MIF or C. Because corner outfield is traditionally a slugging position, Willits would project to be one of the worst hitters there in the league.
A .330 SLG would have been 2nd worst in the American league among qualified players – just above, you guessed it, Desmond DeChone Figgins. The difference between Figgy and Willits, I think, is their track records.
replacement level analysis
by 442 on Jan 16, 2009 6:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes true
i know all about positional adjustments and such. But from my understanding, you are docked because the average positions offensive stats are better, not because it is necessarily easier to field. Because most of these people are not great fielders, putting a great fielder could in essence negate the negatives of his bad batting by being such a great fielder.
Im not saying Willits is a great option for a COF, but with our current personnel, he might make the best sense to play that position
Lets go angels
by anaheim angels on Jan 16, 2009 6:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
I would assume that people tend to let poor performers at a “difficult” position slide because they play that position rather adequately (or they would be moved off that position), so there is a correlation between fielding ability and the positional adjustments.
Right now, I would go as far as saying that GMJ is a better option than Willits, assuming that CF is taken by Hunter.
replacement level analysis
by 442 on Jan 16, 2009 6:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I might agree with you on that
Wow, i just realized ive been so caught up on trying to prove Willits is valuable and i completely lost sight of myself. Unless Figgins gets traded, Willits should not start regularly in the outfield. We have better options (see my post below)
Lets go angels
by anaheim angels on Jan 16, 2009 6:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Even in his best case scenario of 2007, he posted an OPS+ of 96
He is not helping the offense, he is hurting it
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 16, 2009 11:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not all players on a team are going to be above average
a 96 OPS+ season isnt bad, unless yorue an allstar or above league average. Willits is the type of player where since we pay him league minimum we can spend our money elsewhere knowing that we do not need to panic if he plays. OPS+ also doesnt take into account defense or baserunning, where Willits is at worst average
Lets go angels
by anaheim angels on Jan 16, 2009 5:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He plays LF one of the easier defensive positions.
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 16, 2009 5:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The question is where else to spend money ...
I think our needs are to find a 5th starter, and to find an upgrade at a backup OF. Basically use some money to get someone superior to Willits (especially for the few months we basically only have 4 OF/DH out there (with GMJ hurt).
by matthiasstephan on Jan 17, 2009 5:01 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The angels dont want to get a topend outfielder
They can wait towards the end of the offseason and pick up a Hinske type player, that is fine defensively and plus offensively and can be gotten for cheap.
Lets go angels
by anaheim angels on Jan 17, 2009 1:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hinske is so good he did not make the playoff roster.
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 17, 2009 2:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
thats because they had baldelli back
Hinske last year (ba/obp/slg) .247 .333 .465 107 OPS+ with 20 HRs in 381 ABs
Lets go angels
by anaheim angels on Jan 17, 2009 2:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree we don't want another starter.
I just think we need someone other than Willits (in addition to Willits) backing up the OF. I am guessing Figgy plays out there some, but I would feel better with another OF out there.
There has to be better talent than Hinske though. The market is down, can we get an OF that wants too much money now, but will come down when they can’t get the gig they want???
by matthiasstephan on Jan 17, 2009 4:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He should be a number 8 hitter in the national league.........
for the nationals……
I love him……but he’s not good enough for the Halos
12/19/08 - Thank you KLJ for coming into my life.
by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 16, 2009 11:33 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Ok, but...
Why?
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
by PhiSlamma on Jan 16, 2009 11:35 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If he was producing with his 2007 numbers then I would be all for it....
but nothing in 2008 makes me believe for one second that 2009 will be any better for him…..
12/19/08 - Thank you KLJ for coming into my life.
by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 16, 2009 11:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He did have less than 90 at bats.....
Even when he was struggling at the end of 07 his .367 OBP is the exact OBP of Figgins last year.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
by PhiSlamma on Jan 16, 2009 11:47 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well im glad you have faith.......because I dont......and if Im wrong....all the better.
12/19/08 - Thank you KLJ for coming into my life.
by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 16, 2009 11:48 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I heard it said somewhere
That a player’s line for a given season can’t be taken seriously until he surpasses 100 ABs. While this discounts the awesome .321 OBP Willits posted, it also renders the argument that he sucked in 2008 because of his statistical line moot.
Light Up That Halo!
by Clutch on Jan 16, 2009 6:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The better the sample size the better
It’s true, last year was probably an aberration, but I wouldn’t call 2007 Willits’ true skill level either.
replacement level analysis
by 442 on Jan 16, 2009 6:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Granted
But we can’t write off Willits based on 2008 alone, either. Hmmm, now that I think of it I don’t think he was that great in 2006, too.
(Checks numbers on Baseball-Reference.)
Hmmm—in 2006 he hit .261/slugged .289, but put up a sick .411 OBP in 45 ABs (has this been mentioned already?). Incredibly small sample size…I dunno, I’d say if the Halos still had Coach Haynes or ThatGuyInNewYork around to teach Reggie how to drive the ball to go with his patience, he could be pretty solid.
Light Up That Halo!
by Clutch on Jan 16, 2009 8:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
your omission of SLG
is misleading.
Kotch would've had that.
by howiestheman on Jan 16, 2009 11:41 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I included OPS as the last split in each line I give.
Plus as a leadoff hitter, and also fitting into my point, the Halos need someone to get on base.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
by PhiSlamma on Jan 16, 2009 11:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I will bet the farm Figgy is more effective.
Rendering Willits a defensive replacement pinch runner.
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 16, 2009 11:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So far your only arguments against are
Willits postional offensive value wouldn’t be optimal (all the while we have our leadoff man playing third)
and
Willits SLG (of all things) is low.
Right.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
by PhiSlamma on Jan 16, 2009 12:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And your arguments are
Willits postional offensive value wouldn’t be optimal (all the while we have our leadoff man playing third)
What does the fact that Figgins is playing out of position have anything to do with Willits? If anything, we should actually make better decisions on where to play players, rather than just stick him in LF because, hey, we screwed up with Figgins, why not do it one more time?
Willits SLG (of all things) is low.
What’s wrong with that argument? It’s not just low, it’s awful.
replacement level analysis
by 442 on Jan 16, 2009 4:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Wait,
You just repeated PhiSlamm’s summary of hauldog’s argument and attributed it as being PhiSlamma’s original argument.
Very confused over here…
Light Up That Halo!
by Clutch on Jan 16, 2009 6:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry, should have worded it better
I did quote hauldog’s arguments, but I’m saying that they are valid points. I’m arguing against PhiSlamma’s arguments against hauldog’s arguments.
replacement level analysis
by 442 on Jan 16, 2009 6:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i know you included OPS
but Reggie’s is mostly due to his OBP (which there is nothing wrong with).
the problem is, he doesn’t hit a whole lot
Kotch would've had that.
by howiestheman on Jan 16, 2009 1:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
wow look at the big brain on...
PhiSlamma. good info and analysis. you know what will happen to him if we give up on him and trade him. he’ll have a long, solid career and it will piss us off to no end every time he’s in a highlight or has a 3 for 5 night. and what if he had a good post halo career for an east coast team. he would be treated as the second incarnation of lenny dykstra.
by thejd on Jan 16, 2009 11:52 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
That is a tasty burger!
And Willits compares more to Jeff Davanon than Lenny Dykstra.
Minor league career stats:
Davanon .298/.401/.463
Willits .304/.397/.399
Davanon has about 600 more ABs in minors.
I think I’d rather see a slow-footed 30+ year-old with power as the #5 OF/PH
I was uncool before uncool was cool.
by WiHaloFan on Jan 16, 2009 2:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Wait, that came off as me saying I'd rather have Davanon
No so. I meant someone like Abreu.
I was uncool before uncool was cool.
by WiHaloFan on Jan 16, 2009 2:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Willits and DaVanon
Willits and DaVanon were/are no better than fourth or fifth outfield material – why were/are fans so hard up to fight for right to watch these guys play on a regular basis?
On the Angels’ official forum, there was a lot of DaVanon talk as well…kind of the same pro-Willits type talk on why DaVanon should play everyday and if you didn’t like them, then you were some kind of hater.
Willits is the Angels’ version of Willie Bloomquist – a guy who will get more attention or credit than he deserves because he hustles too much, he’s little, he’s a gamer, he is just like everyone else, he’s David Eckstein lite, blah, blah, blah…
by BBFan1 on Jan 16, 2009 3:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
dont forget Orlando Palmero.....
he’s pretty much the same as willits and jeffy-boy
12/19/08 - Thank you KLJ for coming into my life.
by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 16, 2009 11:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
A career 319 SLG%.
Putting him at a corner OF position is freaking brilliant.
If we had high performers at other positions to hide his bat, then it might make sense, but we don’t. He would add a whole lot of fail to an offense that is chock full of it.
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 16, 2009 11:52 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Sigh...
1) My scenario is only replacing Figgins in the lineup, he of .387 SLG
2) OPS is a more telling stat than just SLG, why you are tunnel visioned on this one stat is somewhat befuddling
3)Why the hell are you even talking about the potential leadoff hitters SLG? Thats like nay-saying Pujols because he doesn’t have sufficient bunting skills.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
by PhiSlamma on Jan 16, 2009 11:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
See above. Not impressed with his career OPS+ of 86
Sigh. 86.
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 16, 2009 11:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
OPS +
I’m not a huge stathead but if OPS doesn’t correlate to runs created as well as other stats that aren’t as easy to calculate. I remember some stat guy saying that a better version of OPS would value OBP about twice as much as SLG but of course that erases the ease of OPS. I know OPS+ takes into effect park effects but I doubt it takes into account the fact that a point of OBP is worth more than a point of SLG.
by MH252525 on Jan 16, 2009 12:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I was not aware that was fact.
That is one mans opinion.
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 16, 2009 12:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually it's not opinion
With the amount of data that is available you can prove which stats correlate to runs scored, that is why they have stats that are very hard to calculate. They are more valuable than a simple measure like OPS and it isn’t opinion.
by MH252525 on Jan 16, 2009 2:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Apples and Apples
He is using OPS for Willits. I like OPS+ better. Same stat just park adjusted.
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 16, 2009 12:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I understand that
but what I’m saying is that both OPS and OPS+ undervalue the skill set that Willits brings to the tables.
by MH252525 on Jan 16, 2009 1:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Skill set implies he is bringing multiple skills to the arena of batting.
I see only one. OBP.
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 16, 2009 1:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
well once he gets on base I wouldn't exactly pinch run for him ;)
by MH252525 on Jan 16, 2009 1:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
nor does he need to be replaced late in the game for defense
Lets go angels
by anaheim angels on Jan 16, 2009 5:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hence I said batting
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 16, 2009 5:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
but the thing is, batting is the third of the game (well, a little more)
Its like saying that the Ravens suck because they dont have a great offense. They are good because their defense is amazing, and so is their special teams.
That was just an extreme example, because Willit’s defense isnt Ravens level good. Not everyones value lies in their bat. Defense is so underrated in todays game, but it is still very important
Lets go angels
by anaheim angels on Jan 16, 2009 5:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well given that the Angels offense is already anemic
I would say it is a large third when it comes to putting Willits bat into the lineup.
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 16, 2009 6:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
True
very valid point.
But could it not also add value back defensively because our defense is on the verge of being pathetic right now?
Lets go angels
by anaheim angels on Jan 16, 2009 6:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
- "on the verge of being"
Well, except Aybar.
replacement level analysis
by 442 on Jan 16, 2009 6:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
as a total part, we might be
Aybar is crazily amazing defensively
Lets go angels
by anaheim angels on Jan 16, 2009 6:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
re: SLG%
Do you even no what this stat measures?
Pujols bunting has nothing to do with Reggie’s lack of slugging percentage.
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 16, 2009 11:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Feeding the troll....
SLG – Slugging Percentage TB/AB
TB- (Singles + 2*2B + 3*3B + 4*HR)
SLG is a way to measure the power of a hitter, the higher the SLG the more bases he is likely to get with each hit.
NOT A RELEVANT MEASUREMENT FOR LEADOFF HITTERS.
Figgins first year OPS+ was 90, so players can do this thing called “improving”.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
by PhiSlamma on Jan 16, 2009 12:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So total bases per AB is not relevant for a lead off hitter?
You do realize that Willits bats in game situations where he is not leading off? Correct?
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 16, 2009 12:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Is that how baseball works?
I value the player who gets the most AB over the season to be able to get on base, go from first to third, and steal bases.
You know, table setting for those players who have that shiny SLG you keep splooging over.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
by PhiSlamma on Jan 16, 2009 12:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's relevant for EVERY HITTER.
I don’t see how you think that Willits can be excused for having no power just because he would presumably bat leadoff. I don’t care who you are, players that hit for power are better than players who cannot. You’re argument is like saying Willits is Grady Sizemore’s equal in terms of hitting ability as a leadoff man.
replacement level analysis
by 442 on Jan 16, 2009 4:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Willits<<<Sizemore
Thats why sizemore is making 10 times more than Willits.
Also, hauldog. Say a leadoff hitter hits a double HR every 8 ABs, but strikes out every other time up. He has a .500 SLG, but is not an effective leadoffman. The object of leading off is to get on base, any way possible. Sure getting the extra base is good, but someone who can get on base more consistently is helping the team better
Lets go angels
by anaheim angels on Jan 16, 2009 5:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Dude I get that SLG is not everything but say it is irrelevant like PhiSlamma did misses the point
He would be occupying LF. One of the easier defensive positions that should be reserved for someone with a high SLG%
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 16, 2009 6:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Im not trying to say it is irrelevent
no stats are irrelevent. They just have to be put into proper context. While it is great to have a great leadoff hitter that has power, the truth is we dont have it on our team right now. short of sigining a FA, willits would still be not a terrible option.
For the record, im not in favor of making Willits our everyday OFer. I would move figgins to the outfield, and rotate Juan and Vlad at DH while keeping Aybar at SS and Wood at 3B. But Willits would not kill our team as a fifth or sixth outfielder, as he is likely much more valuable then most teams fifth or sixth outfielder, and his OBP skills even moreso to the angels
Lets go angels
by anaheim angels on Jan 16, 2009 6:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure batting order matters
I mean, logically it makes sense, the leadoff guy get on base and the cleanup guy drives him in, but I think someone said that the difference between an “ideal” lineup and the worst possible lineup over a full season is something like 7 runs, or less than a win. I would think that we should put the 9 best hitters out there, and Willits is not one of them.
I don’t think any of us have any problem having Reggie as our 5th outfielder. It’s just the people who argue that he should be playing on a regular basis.
replacement level analysis
by 442 on Jan 16, 2009 6:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think alot of us do have problems with Willits as our 5th outfielder
And i dont think many people are saying he should be playing on a regular basis. I think that willits should be kept because he might be our only source of consistantly good OBP if figgins goes down.
Lets go angels
by anaheim angels on Jan 16, 2009 6:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Besides, if you're going to argue that OBP is everything
Wilits isn’t exactly an OBP monster either.
replacement level analysis
by 442 on Jan 16, 2009 6:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
based against the rest of the team he is
but against the rest of league, not really.
Lets go angels
by anaheim angels on Jan 16, 2009 6:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not to nitpick
But SLG is a very flawed stat. For example, lets use Ichiros 262 hit season. He had a .455 Slugging! Wow, that is very high. One might easily conclude that he has alot of power in his bat. But the truth is he had 37 total XBH out of his 262 total. His OBP was .414. His slugging was a product of his batting average (which was .372). A better way to measure power is ISO (SLG-BA) which tells the actual power a player has, his ability to get XBH. His ISO that year was .082. The next year, Ichiro slugged .436, but actually had alot more power, as his ISO was .133.
In comparison, power hitters like adam dunn or pujols have high ISOs (Dunn career .272 ISO, Pujols .289)
Lets go angels
by anaheim angels on Jan 16, 2009 5:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Which is why I mentioned ISO earlier.
Your point about SLG is fully valid, but Willits will put out anything close to a .100 ISO.
replacement level analysis
by 442 on Jan 16, 2009 6:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
The ISO was not about willits, just saying how SLG doesnt always tell the whole picture of power. Willits has 5 less career HRs than JOHN SMOLTZ!
Lets go angels
by anaheim angels on Jan 16, 2009 6:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
or 5 less HRs that Carlos Zambrano had last year
replacement level analysis
by 442 on Jan 16, 2009 7:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Great idea, Replace Figgins with Willits.
Have you noticed that Figgins had the second best OBP on the team? Why does he need a high slugging %? He needs to score runs, which he does.
It’s like you all want a hall of famer at every position. Get Realistic.
by Big Bad , "VLAD"! on Jan 16, 2009 1:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Um. I would rather have Figgins in the lineup. I would not like to have Willits in it at all.
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 16, 2009 1:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He's a corner outfielder.
His SLG is very relevant to the discussion.
In 1914, you could be a corner outfielder with zero power (and, obviously, in the case of Willits, we are talking zero power). Today, you simply cannot. It makes no sense and it hurts the team.
If Willits were a centerfielder, you might have an argument.
However:
1) The team has a great defensive centerfielder who also hits some.
2) Willits’ defense isn’t good enough to justify him being in centerfield even if Torii Hunter were still in Minnesota.
Willits is the fifth outfielder on this team and that’s not going to change anytime soon (ok, he’ll be a really weak fourth outfielder until Matthews gets back).
If Willits were worth anything at all, he would have already been traded, seeing as though he’s surplus. Willits hasn’t been traded. And it’s not because the Angels are protecting his value, it’s because nobody in all of baseball has any interest whatsoever.
I agree that it’s an interesting and worthwhile off-season discussion but, in reality, Reggie Willits is barely a Major Leaguer (and will find himself in AAA before the 2009 season ends).
"…he has a 2 seam ‘heavy’ fastball that has sink but he does not throw a ‘sinker’." Angel Aviator on Jake Peavy.
by GarretSaysSuckIt on Jan 17, 2009 9:51 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
But but but he hits leadoff
So the only relevant stat is OBP. Who cares what position he plays he hits leadoff!
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 17, 2009 2:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Leave Reggie Alone! NSFW Language.
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 17, 2009 2:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
ha!
dude i was totally thinking about that through the entire post, but i didn’t have a chance to link it.
Kotch would've had that.
by howiestheman on Jan 17, 2009 9:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i think that's an interesting point
about how Angels tend to overvalue their prospects. When we see a trade turned down, people on here tend to say things like “Oh, throw in Willits or Moseley.” The thing is, those two players are nothing more than filler.
With that, I think other teams have a far better idea of how good a player is, because we (myself, and everyone on this website included) tend to be blinded to a certain extent about how good our players are. And after perusing some other websites re: Willits, I think it’s pretty clear that he should not be playing every day.
replacement level analysis
by 442 on Jan 17, 2009 5:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Misleading
Instead of “career”, you mean 712 major-league plate appearances. That’s much to small a sample to smear the guy as a “career .319 slugger”, especially a guy who is just starting his career. (Incidentally, that happens to be one point higher than Figgins’ SLG last year.) Reggie is never going to be a slugger, but in his rookie season he hit more doubles (20) than Figgins did last year (14) in roughly the same amount of playing time. He also succeeded in 77% of his stolen base attempts in 2007, whereas Figgins succeeded 72% of the time last year. Oh, and his .391 OBP in 2007 was out of orbit for a product of the Angels farm system—he even led the AL in pitches per plate appearance.
Reggie will turn 28 before the All-Star break next year, so he’s not a hot prospect or an investment for the future. His rookie year may have even been a total fluke, but I’m guessing not. He only had 136 plate appearances last year, so it’s more likely that 2008’s numbers are the fluke, not 2007’s. Young players need constant playing time to develop, and Reggie really got hosed in that department. Some people are screaming for Figgins to be traded, but if he does go, Willits is the only player on the roster right now who might conceivably replace him next year. I’m afraid that GMJ will get the playing time though, because money talks. So we really should be asking ourselves: would we rather see Willits leading off, or GMJ? To me, a 12.8% walk rate in the minors and a 14.8% walk rate in the majors says, Willits. The guy would only have to hit about .280 to post an OBP around .400. Other than Guerrero, who gets most of his walks intentionally, the last Angels to get on base over 40% of the time across a full season were Darin Erstad, Troy Glaus, and Tim Salmon in 2000.
by Suboptimal on Jan 16, 2009 12:33 PM PST up reply actions 4 recs
All hail Suboptimal
you are my hero
Lets go angels
by anaheim angels on Jan 16, 2009 5:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Here is why i do not like him
His defense is terrible. Like GMJ a handful of superhuman catches ont eh highlight reel mask an inadequate glove, bad routes and terrible arm.
He might do as a leadoff hitter if we are without figgins but he just melted in the batters box this season.
i like him on the bases, though.
by Rev Halofan on Jan 16, 2009 12:05 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Bad route runners usually post low RFs
because of their inability to get to more balls because of poor routes. Willits’ is actually quite high. If you are correct, and he can somehow get a better feel of LF with more playing time and his RF goes up, he could very well be top tier in RF in LF in the MLB.
LF does not require a strong arm.
Career FP- .989
Not bad, considering Vlad has a whopping .964 FP.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
by PhiSlamma on Jan 16, 2009 12:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Compare Vlad and Reggies FP% when Willits learns how to hit for power
otherwise it really is not relevant
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 16, 2009 12:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't consider Vlad a "terrible defender"
and Willits FP is significantly higher.
But if you want to talk about offense when we are comparing defensive values then go right ahead.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
by PhiSlamma on Jan 16, 2009 12:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Good offense justifies the sub par defense
A player has to be multifaceted. They play offense and defense. Weird.
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 16, 2009 12:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
My point:
Rev considered Willits a subpar defender. I compared him to another player defensively, to show he might not be all that bad. A .989 is nothing to scoff at.
Also I am done citing statistics and actual points to your random trolling. I will no longer respond to you until you can intelligently respond and make thought out points.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
by PhiSlamma on Jan 16, 2009 12:22 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Here is an intelligent point
You can not compare the range factor of a right fielder to that of a center fielder. It does not work that way.
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 16, 2009 1:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Uh
Notice I was comparing Fielding Percentage?
No?
Read again…..
Still nothing?
Sorry can not help you mate.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
by PhiSlamma on Jan 16, 2009 1:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
One post below guy.
You compare Reggie’s RF as a right fielder to CFers right below here.
Don’t worry about helping me. Help yourself.
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 16, 2009 1:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Reply to the correct post
and Reggie has played more games at CF (58) then RF (54)
But ok, his CF defensive stats are:
RF 2.71 and FP .983
Which, still makes him just as good as the players listed below.
Seriously, Hauldog, go find another website/thread/anything to sit under and demand money from passerbys,
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
by PhiSlamma on Jan 16, 2009 1:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I did
“Also I am done citing statistics and actual points to your random trolling. I will no longer respond to you until you can intelligently respond and make thought out points.”
So I brought you an intelligent point
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 16, 2009 1:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
the point really is moot
FP only tells how many mistakes the fielder made. We could put friggin Mo Vaughn in the outfield and let him catch every ball that comes in a 3 foot radius of him, and he could let every other ball go and hed have a 1.000 FP. The true measure of a fielder is how many balls they get to over the average player at that position.
Lets go angels
by anaheim angels on Jan 16, 2009 6:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Who was talking FP? Certainly not me.
I was talking RF with PhiSlamma
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 16, 2009 6:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I stand corrected
But RF isnt amazing either. UZR is better, as it doesnt reward outfielders for having 5 flyball starters, and compares their effiencency to balls they should have gotten to, not just the ones taht they did
Lets go angels
by anaheim angels on Jan 16, 2009 6:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Just using the stats that he used improperly
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 16, 2009 7:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You should go back to telling Rev how to run his blog that was comical
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 16, 2009 1:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Also something to consider
Players whose RF and FP are around 2.51 and .989:
Mike Cameron
Grady Sizemore
Ichiro
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
by PhiSlamma on Jan 16, 2009 12:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Izzy for leadoff !!!!!
Did everyone forget his kick ass performance as lead-off when Figgy was out???
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Jan 16, 2009 2:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not me. I didn't forget. I love the guy.
But then, I spend too much of my time watching games and believin’ my lyin’ eyes so my contributions count for nil.
by Stirrups on Jan 16, 2009 4:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry, off topic
Stirrups, did you get those files?
I was uncool before uncool was cool.
by WiHaloFan on Jan 16, 2009 4:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, thanks.
The last part of the second one got to me early this morning. I am not home form work yet, so I had not had a chance to sit down and send you an ack and some thanks.
by Stirrups on Jan 16, 2009 5:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I hope Willits' OBP in '09 is .975 - and by OBP, I mean On Bench Percentage.
What can I say, I’m not a fan. I won’t bandy statistics about either, but I will say that I would rather see GMJ in the leadoff spot over a one-tool guy who has warning track power…in batting practice.
“A” for effort though, Phi.
by Big Easy Halofan on Jan 16, 2009 12:25 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I swear all you guys can write a book about the anti-moneyball!
Heh, I understand the point that Willits has no power. I am more attracted to his ability to get on base, which no Angel, save Napoli, can do at all ever ever.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
by PhiSlamma on Jan 16, 2009 12:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Warning track power?
I think you give the guy way too much credit ;-)
"…he has a 2 seam ‘heavy’ fastball that has sink but he does not throw a ‘sinker’." Angel Aviator on Jake Peavy.
by GarretSaysSuckIt on Jan 17, 2009 9:59 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
More like infield fly power
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 17, 2009 2:16 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
The sad thing is
That Willits is in the right place at the wrong time. To me, he’s a fantastic Angels on the field with his defense, speed, and somewhat clutch. The problem is that right now the Angels need more power and situational hitting not so much a lead-off man. Willits does deserve more playing time but with this team he probably won’t get a chance of an everyday role for a long time.
by TheAntiSox on Jan 16, 2009 12:30 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I think
if we trade Figgins now, while his value is high, and package him with our surplus of talent we could get something very nice in return. If Willits can replicate his 07 proformance then we would only gain from starting Willits.
This would, more importantly, give Wood a spot to play full time.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
by PhiSlamma on Jan 16, 2009 12:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
With all due respect,
Willits’ defense sucks.
by Chzburger Jones on Jan 18, 2009 1:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Saying with all due due respect....
“Doesn’t mean you can say whatever you want!”
“It sure as hell does! It’s in the Geneva Convention!”
by matt92130 on Jan 18, 2009 4:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
We live in America.
I don’t even need to say “with all due respecct” to say whatever I want.
by Chzburger Jones on Jan 18, 2009 4:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting read....
including the comments. Thanks for taking the time to post this. I like Willits, I really do, but I just dont see how they can get him enough time to prove anything.
That's just Manny being..........a jackass
by autry's cowboys on Jan 16, 2009 12:35 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Trading Figgins
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
by PhiSlamma on Jan 16, 2009 12:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
but it will likely require moving Izzy too (as you indicated) because if he is not moved, the instant BWood has a rough stretch at the plate, Izzy would be back to 3B.
That's just Manny being..........a jackass
by autry's cowboys on Jan 16, 2009 1:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
all I want to see is Wood get 500AB next year….
even if he hits .200.
I want to eliminate all chance of him getting replaced with Izzy/Figgins/A Hobo Sosh likes instantly.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
by PhiSlamma on Jan 16, 2009 1:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
prove?
how about 27 steals, .293 avg and .391 OBP in 2007?
Tex is a Yank...now our counter move is what?
by hk47 on Jan 16, 2009 12:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yea prove
as in bounce back from a lethargic 2nd half of ’07 (compared to his first half) and a limited sampling in ’08. Yes prove, not to me or to you, but quite possibly many others on this post.
That's just Manny being..........a jackass
by autry's cowboys on Jan 16, 2009 1:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sick of people throwing Willits' 2007 stats to justify the fact that he is good.
Those stats are heavily weighted by the first half of 2007. He has sucked ever since the second half of 2007. The league has figured him out. He hasn’t adjusted.
by Chzburger Jones on Jan 18, 2009 4:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No hate here.
I think Reggie absolutely has a spot on this team. Hes still relatively young and inexpensive and of course takes a ton of pitches. The only question with him is will he ever learn to pull the trigger when he sees strikes, and will he hit it hard enough that it even matters? I think hes better than last year shows, but he still has no business getting 500 ab’s on a contender. As a spot starter, pinch runner, and defensive sub, I think hes worth keeping on the roster.
by dmhead on Jan 16, 2009 12:43 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
No
Willits doesn’t deserve the hate he gets on this blog.
He played in 82 games last year and got 102 at bats- hardly consistent playing time r/t Hunter’s arrival.
He had a .293 average and a .391 OBP in full-time duty in 2007. I think if he gets consistent playing time, he gets on base. He has decent speed and he’s a decent defensive OF.
He can get on base and take a walk (which nobody else on the team can do), at least he has some plate discipline.
In particular, I remember 8/3 when he took four walks and scored three runs against the Yankees. Then, Soth gave him three days off. I posted on the blog that day that I felt like Reggie deserved a start the next day because he was the offensive catalyst in the NYY game the day before. I got blasted for suggesting it. So???
I’m with Phi Slamma on this one. But I like Figgins too.
Tex is a Yank...now our counter move is what?
by hk47 on Jan 16, 2009 1:03 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
Scioscia does that to all the kids
I remember when Kendry hit a game tying home run then got sat down for a week or so. It pisses me off sometimes.
Put Kendry Morales at 1B, and move Sean Rodriguez to 3B......NOW LETS GO WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by acuda27 on Jan 16, 2009 5:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's part of a general strategy
Called they were bonafide back-ups on the overall depth chart at that point. You don’t put a player in so another player can rest, and then have the substituting player replace the other guy completely.
Now that Kendry is considered first (no pun intended) on the depth chart, this will not happen. Or if it does, for reasons not named Albert Pujols, Soth will be dumb.
(And no, I am not in any way shape or form planting the idea of a “OMG we should go get Pujols!!!!!”, rather that that type of scenario should at this point be the only reason Morales would get permanently replaced at first [Assuming other things, such as him surprisingly sucking, don’t intervene.])
Light Up That Halo!
by Clutch on Jan 16, 2009 11:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Let's just trade for Rickey Henderson
That will make this whole post a moot point
by Big Bad , "VLAD"! on Jan 16, 2009 1:27 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
We don't have to trade for him.
Rickey’s a free agent. Heh.
I don't know...I'm makin' this up as I go.
by ArkAngel on Jan 16, 2009 1:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
and Rickey will tell you ALLLLL about Rickey
That's just Manny being..........a jackass
by autry's cowboys on Jan 16, 2009 1:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
haha
That's just Manny being..........a jackass
by autry's cowboys on Jan 16, 2009 1:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting scenario
HYPOTHETICALLY speaking, could a player who is already in the HoF come back and play in the majors? Would he be removed from the HoF and then have to wait again for requisite 5 years? Is this the stupidest question ever asked on this website?
by Higz on Jan 16, 2009 2:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You could sign him as a free agent right now...
and he’s better than Willits every day but one (“Rickey don’t like day games”).
"…he has a 2 seam ‘heavy’ fastball that has sink but he does not throw a ‘sinker’." Angel Aviator on Jake Peavy.
by GarretSaysSuckIt on Jan 17, 2009 10:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I guess i'm still not getting your point.
Tell me again how trading Figgy, our third baseman, is going to get Reggie, our fifth outfielder, more AB’s? I’m not getting it.
I’d think that if figgy were to be traded it would open the door for Wood to play 3b. Wood would get more AB’s. Reggie would continue to be the fifth outfielder, probably acting in an 8th inning pinch running/defensive replacement player.
I don’t get it.
by goodvibe61 on Jan 16, 2009 1:57 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Willits would be our LF
not a 5th, and our 3rd baseman would be Wood.
Rivera the DH.
Whats not to get?
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
by PhiSlamma on Jan 16, 2009 2:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hate on Willits?
He’s everyone’s favorite cherub…if he can actually get on the field.
Objectively, he can get on base, but he doesn’t hit for power and may be a 500 at-bat guy.
For those who don’t like Figgins’ offensive game – Willits is basically the same type of hitter without the ability to hit for much power.
In short, he is probably closer to Orlando Palmeiro than an elite leadoff guy who is going to play everyday.
by BBFan1 on Jan 16, 2009 1:57 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
yeah...i'm a willits hater....so what?...
It’s like the guy goes up to the plate with a wet piece of rolled up newspaper…he sucks!
If I hear the word "red sox"...POW!!! RIGHT IN THE KISSER!!!
by Halofanatic on Jan 16, 2009 2:33 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
ALL OF THE STATS CITED FOR WILLITS
are of a tiny sample size. If a few official scorers had given him the occasional error on one of his botched glove-stabs his percentages would be skewed down and make him look worse, and if a few had been forgiving he would look like the 2nd coming of Darin Erstad’s Gold Glove outfield defense.
In 712 Plate Appearances he has gotten on base 265 times. 25 of those were doubles. This is an easily replaceable offensive player.
He is not better than Vlad, Hunter or Rivera. If Wood is at 3rd Base and Vlad DHs he is at his absolute best the same at Figgins in an off year. Okay so now he is at best our 5th outfielder and we are paying Gary MAtthews Jr $10 Million so Willits is our 6th outfielder.
If we carry him as a pinch runner and a Sunday afternoon Vlad-Rester I am still torn as to his ability to help the Angels. If the decision is to carry three cathcers in order to let Napoli DH when Mathis catches and have Bobby Wilson there in case of accident – that is more justifiable in my estimation than having Willits on the roster.
by Rev Halofan on Jan 16, 2009 2:43 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
I agree
Throw in the fact he’s going to be 28 in May, and he’s so replaceable…or at least he should be. Wouldn’t it make more sense to use that roster spot for a player, a young player, who has some upside potential? Aren’t there something like 43,000 players in the minors who can do what Willits can, who would have more value in 2010 or 2011? Okay, maybe not 43,000, but maybe 25?
I was uncool before uncool was cool.
by WiHaloFan on Jan 16, 2009 3:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Let me get this straight.
So instead of using the 25th spot on the roster on a guy who can be useful in small doses (pinch running, defensive sub, etc.) you want to get a young prospect with upside to sit on the bench 6 days out of the week and accumulate a whole 100 ab’s over the course of the season?
by dmhead on Jan 17, 2009 11:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What?
We can play the young player in the situations that we would have used Willits. If we had say, Peter Bourjos or Terry Evans on the roster instead of Willits, I think they can produce roughly the same amount, and they would have a chance to showcase their potential and develop further. A double positive.
replacement level analysis
by 442 on Jan 17, 2009 5:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Willits
he is young still. why wouldn’t you want a Bourjos to get 4-500 AB in the Minors to keep developing. Evans on the other hand might be good for competition between the 2
by HALO_86 on Jan 17, 2009 5:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not a prospect...someone more useable
My point was a younger player who was more versatile, hopefully a lefty hitter…my point was, there’s many players around who can do what Willits does, why are the Angels sticking with him?
Like this guy. (minor league free agent)
Or this guy. (minor league free agent)
Or this guy. (Minor league free agent).
What’s so special about Willits?
I was uncool before uncool was cool.
by WiHaloFan on Jan 18, 2009 5:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
"Willits". "tiny sample size".
There is a joke in there somewhere.
by Stirrups on Jan 16, 2009 5:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I had a tiny sample size
so the doctor sent me back in with another cup.
". . .and the young lions will lock horns!" -- Ron Fairly, from an Angels telecast
by rspencer on Jan 19, 2009 12:21 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Reggie projects to have a .360 OBP
The league average is .330. The .30 in OBP gained by playing Willits does not make up at all for the power lost by playing him.
Also, we’d be playing him in LF or RF, with Hunter in CF. If Willits were a shortstop as a elite fielder, then his bat would be acceptable. However, most corner outfielders can top 360/340 in their sleep.
replacement level analysis
by 442 on Jan 16, 2009 4:20 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Great Post
This is a conversation that hasn’t happened yet – how much more important is OBP than slugging? More to the point, how much more important is additional OBP than slugging to an Angel lineup statistically likely to see a bump in slugging due to maturation of Napoli, Kendrick, Wood, even Aybar etc, but decrease in OBP due to the loss of Kotchman? Seems to me that we’re ok with power this year; what we’re lacking is OBP…
by rghan on Jan 16, 2009 5:22 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
OBP is definitely more important
But noone is really sure. Sabermetricians assume it to be anywhere from 1.5 times to even 4 times (read Moneyball) more important. However, re: Willits, he does not get on base at an extraordinary clip, or not nearly enough to compensate for his power.
I think we should be okay with OBP, I mean, there aren’t really any black holes in that lineup. About 8th or 9th in the league sounds reasonable.
replacement level analysis
by 442 on Jan 16, 2009 6:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Twice as important
The recent research gives a mOBP-to-mSLG value of about 2:1 (“m” is for marginal—it’s the derivative for you calculus junkies). This means that adding a point of team OBP will create twice as many runs as adding a point of team SLG. Of course that’s just a statistical average; there are no guarantees. But it makes sense: OBP is a better predictor of run-scoring than AVG, SLG, or other batting stats. Three of the top five teams in OBP last year also finished in the top five in runs scored. Only one of the top five teams in home runs (Detroit) finished in the top five in runs scored, but that team was also in the top five in OBP. The Angels were 18th in OBP and 15th in runs scored.
by Suboptimal on Jan 16, 2009 7:00 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Easy concept to explain
Imagine two teams:
Lineup A where every hitter has a 1.000 SLG, achieved with one home run every four AB’s, Lineup B where every hitter has a 1.000 OBP.
Lineup A would have nine hitters who each hit a HR, resulting in 9 runs. Not bad.
However, Lineup B would score an infinite number of runs, because they would never get out.
In real life, of course, we need some hitting and power. A team needs a mixture. Few players can do it all, so most managers have to mix and match to make their offense work. Reggie has a valuable skill, one that can enhance a lineup. Personally, I think he’s an extra guy who can cover for injuries for 2-3 weeks at a time. But he certainly DOESN’T suck.
"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you." - Woody Hayes
by johnnyangel101 on Jan 16, 2009 8:08 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
I try arguing that point in about 20 different posts
and i still cant put it as eloquently as you in one paragraph. 100% wholeheartedly agree
Lets go angels
by anaheim angels on Jan 17, 2009 1:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, yours is the classic theoretical but, of course...
a 1.000 SLG is far more attainable than a 1.000 OBP (though, obviously, neither is realistic).
A 1.000 OBP is akin to arguing time travel using the theory of relativity….I’ll believe it when I see it, but it’s certainly interesting to think about.
In reality, the guys with the highest OBP are also the guys with the highest SLG. That’s not a coincidence, either; pitchers pitch sluggers carefully and this leads to walks.
Willits will never get on base anywhere at or near a .391 clip for the remainder of his career. AL pitchers have learned that the best way to keep Willits off base is to throw him strikes. Enough fastballs on the inner half of the plate, in fact, and Willits is back to AAA. His game’s up.
He’ll get ABs against LHP and he’ll continue to pinch-run. He doesn’t “suck,” obviously, because he’s on a Major League roster. Relative to all players on Major League rosters, though, he does “suck.”
"…he has a 2 seam ‘heavy’ fastball that has sink but he does not throw a ‘sinker’." Angel Aviator on Jake Peavy.
by GarretSaysSuckIt on Jan 17, 2009 2:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yup
Obviously, we can all think of theoretical ideas – “Willits can foul off every strike he sees until he gets a walk! He’ll have a 1.000 OBP!” – but in reality, baseball isn’t played like that. As pitchers adjust (and we already saw it happening in 2008), Willits is going to have to find a way to actually hit normally.
replacement level analysis
by 442 on Jan 17, 2009 5:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
My point about Willits on the "Ninja Speaks" thread
is Reagins claimed our outfield was full so no Manny. Well my thought was Willits should block the acquisition of Manny.
Other than that I am sure Willits is a nice guy.
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 16, 2009 7:37 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
He doesn't
But HGH and Juan Rivera does.
by BBFan1 on Jan 16, 2009 9:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Reagins included Willits
In his list of OFer’s blocking the acquisition of Manny Ramirez.
Light Up That Halo!
by Clutch on Jan 16, 2009 11:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Reagins basically said we have outfielders already
and he named his outfielders. He didnt say neccesarily that one in particular was blocking Manny, just that we have 5 outfielders
Lets go angels
by anaheim angels on Jan 17, 2009 1:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well fine if Reggie is one them, then I disagree
I would drop Reggie off at the Padres FO for free.
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 17, 2009 2:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
just because reggie has no value for us
he might have some value for others. I mean, its not like were paying anything to keep willits on our roster (league minimum). Barring signing a FA, we dont have anyone else that can fill that position. Im sure the Padres would take him, as would most rebuilding teams or teams that dont have speed/capable leadoff hitters
Lets go angels
by anaheim angels on Jan 17, 2009 3:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I guess that is my point
Let Reggie go play in one of those places. I do not think he is that great of a use of a roster spot. He certainly should not the guy blocking us from adding another outfielder.
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 17, 2009 3:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Great discussion guys
I wanted to point out that, statistically, Reggie could possibly fit into the lineup. Personally I would rather have Figgins, and use Willits as a pinch-runner, but discussing stuff like this is always good in the offseason.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
by PhiSlamma on Jan 16, 2009 10:11 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Yup
Only a few weeks until pitchers and Molinas report
replacement level analysis
by 442 on Jan 16, 2009 10:20 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Oooh Molinas
What will baseball be without them in a few years?
Light Up That Halo!
by Clutch on Jan 16, 2009 11:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
faster?
Kotch would've had that.
by howiestheman on Jan 17, 2009 9:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
After looking at the line-up the original poster posted...
I am very worried about this season!
by Big Perm on Jan 17, 2009 12:09 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
How bout:
LF Figgy
2B Kendrick
RF Vladdy
DH Dunn
CF Hunter
1B Morales
C Napoli
3B Wood
SS Aybar
Bench: Mathis, Willits, Rivera
Who Cares About: Matthews, Quinlan(sorry Quinny)
by Big Perm on Jan 17, 2009 12:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The team did not
give Rivera a 3 year deal to sit on the bench. Time to get over the Dunn/Manny fantasies. It ain’t happening.
by dmhead on Jan 17, 2009 11:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
agree as our roster is currently
only way we get Manny/Dunn is if we trade one of Wood/Aybar/Figgins, perhaps with certain minor league products to net us JAKE PEAVY! then we sign DUNN! Figuring an Aybar/Jepsen/Adenhart trade for Peavy, and blackmailing GMJ to waive his no trade clause and using the dirt we have on some other GM to take him, our team would be
Starters: Lackey, Peavy, Santana, Sauners, Weaver
Relievers: Fuentes, Shields, Dondo, Oliver, Speier, Moseley, Bulger/Loux?
3B-Figgins
2B-Howie
RF-Vlad
DH-Dunn
CF-Torii
LF-Rivera
1B-Morales
C-Napoli
SS-Wood
Bench: Willits, S-Rod, Maicer, Mathis
Payroll: About 103-113 (if we can dump HGH) Million (-5 for figgins, +10 for Dunn, +8 for Peavy) We could feasibly do this actually. Or we could trade Aybar instead of Figgins, then ship Figsters for prospects
Lets go angels
by anaheim angels on Jan 17, 2009 1:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think we can realistically land Peavy.
What would we give up? Wood + Adenhart + Conger? And this is for a player who is a significant injury risk in the next few years, imo.
replacement level analysis
by 442 on Jan 17, 2009 5:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
true
at first i was trying to make this an exageration, but then i realized that it wasnt impossible. Sure, improbable, but definitely doable, and if that was our team, then just wow, we might be one of the top 3 in the league with that
Lets go angels
by anaheim angels on Jan 17, 2009 10:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Good News
Napoli could be headed to DH spot
Keeping Napoli in the lineup, supporting Guerrero, on Mathis’ catching days is something Scioscia, his staff and general manager Tony Reagins will discuss once Spring Training, starting in mid-February, gets into full swing.
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 17, 2009 2:23 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Jeff Mathis
Our starting catcher? Hmmm
Over 162 game average:
.195BA, 13HR, 64RBI’s, .272OBP, .991 fielding percentage. Oh God, that BA would have to come up like 30-40 points just to be tolerated. Not bad power numbers though.
by matt92130 on Jan 17, 2009 2:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the point was Naps DH's when Mathis catches.
This is the worst offseason in years. But hey we got Colorado's closer!
by hauldog on Jan 17, 2009 3:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The article read
Like he may be full time DH.
by matt92130 on Jan 17, 2009 3:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Skimming is not a good look sometimes. My mistake.
I guess I already used my Manny bomb for the month?
by hauldog on Jan 17, 2009 4:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No worries...
Back to a scary thought though… Jeff Mathis is our starting catcher? Hmmmm. The article mentioned Budde or Wilson being brought up. Budde is not the answer and I don’t know a great deal about Wilson. I, personally would like to see a veteran catcher come in and handle duties and allow Mathis to play 60 or so games, with the glut of the playing time going toward a veteran. Who’s out there? Nobody truly decent… unless you count Ivan who can still handle a staff, brings veteran leadership, and also a World Chapionship attitiude. Maybe he can help groom Mathis. He’s no longer worthy of a large salary but for a year, what would you offer?
by matt92130 on Jan 17, 2009 5:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Damn it
Just realized Boras is his agent too. Nevermind.
by matt92130 on Jan 17, 2009 5:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ivan declining
The declining number that Ivan has put up over the last 4+ years would have me staying away. Lets be serious since the testing Ivan has lost a lot of his plus attributes.
Willie Mays Aikens is FREeeeeeeee
by Angel Aviator on Jan 19, 2009 9:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
it was good news
until Mathis was mentioned as starting. that’s no bueno at all… Black Hole FTW.
meh… i like the idea of Naps’ DHing – i really do. if he can keep the BA up a touch and the power numbers coming, he’d be a legit DH and cleanup hitter.
Figgins 3B
Hunter CF
Guerrero RF
Napoli DH
Rivera LF
Morales 1B
Kendrick 2B
Wood SS
Mathis C <—- AHHHH
if the kids can come through, that’s not too bad of a lineup.
Kotch would've had that.
by howiestheman on Jan 17, 2009 9:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sorry but
Willitis is awful. He is a corner outfielder who isn’t a good defender, does not hit for any kind of power whatsoever, and does not make any adjustments whatsoever. He can take a walk and steal a base but other than that, he has no place in the major leagues. I’m sorry. He is just a downgraded version of Juan Pierre.
by Chzburger Jones on Jan 17, 2009 5:51 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
To be fair
Willits walks more than Juan Pierre will ever walk – but somehow, he has displayed even less power.
replacement level analysis
by 442 on Jan 17, 2009 8:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
True
but Pierre is a decent hitter, is faster, and isn’t terrible out in the field despite having a weaker arm (though Willits’ arm isn’t much to gloat about anyways).
by Chzburger Jones on Jan 17, 2009 8:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think we can agree
Neither of them belong near a Major League lineup
replacement level analysis
by 442 on Jan 17, 2009 11:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Amen to that.
They both need to be relegated to DPR/DPB duty (Designated Pinch Running/Designated Pinch Bunting).
by Chzburger Jones on Jan 17, 2009 11:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Willits not deserving of the hate
But will continue to be ridiculed next year. Mike will make sure he get’s some playing time, but unless there are more injuries he will not get the playing time he needs (if that’s true) to get better. Willits and Q will continue to get blasted by HHers next year to the point of silliness, despite both being respectable back-ups who can carry the torch while injured players heal.
Angel Pitching, Angel Defense - get past that.
by vladtheimpaler on Jan 18, 2009 2:39 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
No one hates these guys
I find it a silly assertion that these guys are ridiculed to the point where it makes some fans cry.
Willits and Quinlan are Major League players who have roles to fill – they are bit players who help the regular guys out and have a chance to be good at doing that.
Fans are likely to root for these type of guys, for a number of the reasons, but when these same fans are clamoring for Willits to be playing full time, the stats just don’t justify it.
When someone interjects some statistics and gets real about these players’ value relative to occupying a roster spot on a MLB team, suddenly we are hating on these guys.
by BBFan1 on Jan 18, 2009 1:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Of course no one (I hope) actually hates
I do believe it is a metaphor for constantly ridiculing and not wanted said players to get any playing time. My point was the rest of the article.
Angel Pitching, Angel Defense - get past that.
by vladtheimpaler on Jan 19, 2009 1:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
How many career HR's does Willits have? Just checking
26 XBH in 583 AB’s.
I guess I already used my Manny bomb for the month?
by hauldog on Jan 18, 2009 1:09 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
The real title of this post should be
Willits: Deserving of the attention?
by linkbruin on Jan 21, 2009 12:15 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
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