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Adam Dunn's Pricetag

MLBTR.com is reporting that Adam Dunn's pricetag may have fallen as low as $5 million per year.  Is that worth the risk for a perennial 40 HR hitter?  I doubt anybody would want to give him 4 or more years, but if he could make the switch to 1B and split the DH duties with Vlad, Naps, and others, I think he's worth it.

What do all the rest of you think?

Poll
At what cost Dunn?
3 years @ $5 million per
171 votes
2 years @ $5 million per
128 votes
1 year @ $5 million per
43 votes
Not at any cost!
39 votes

381 votes | Poll has closed

This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.

Comment 58 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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at that price

Hell give him 4 years… i am gettin’ a little nervous about the lack of lefties in this lineup…

by Rev Halofan on Jan 19, 2009 5:09 PM PST reply actions  

i dont know how you pass that up

make some trades, cut some people, whatever you have to do!
if you can pay $7 million total for 2 possible 40 HR hitters (Napoli/Dunn) and one of them is a lefty, i don’t know what the problem is.

Kotch would've had that.

by howiestheman on Jan 19, 2009 5:12 PM PST reply actions  

I put 2 years........but I'd be okay with a club option for a 3rd....

and I agree REV…..need some left handing pop considering we have….well…..none really

12/19/08 - Thank you KLJ for coming into my life.

by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 19, 2009 5:12 PM PST reply actions  

I doubt that hell settle for 5 M/year

If he would do that, hell sign him for 6 years at that price. Even if the price is 8-10 Mil, the Angels should seriously consider signing him.

Lets go angels

by anaheim angels on Jan 19, 2009 5:13 PM PST reply actions  

I tend to agree

I really don’t see Dunn taking that kind of money. But if we could get him in the 8-10 range, I think it’s a no-brainer.

I don't know...I'm makin' this up as I go.

by ArkAngel on Jan 19, 2009 5:19 PM PST up reply actions  

Wow, abso-freakin-lutely

You mean we can get Dunn for less than what we’re giving…opps….paying Figgins.

Look, this team lost Tex&GA from a team that FAILED to get out of the 1st round. Their answer so far is……….no one. And now we are expected to believe that a team with the 3rd OF/DH slot occupied by Gary Matthews/Reggie Willits and with guys like Rivera/Morales playing corner positions has enough of an offense to get it done.

Pay Dunn, and what risk is there anyway. If there is a more ‘get what you expect hitter’ out there than Dunn…I haven’t seen him. Unless it’s Matthews, where we expect squat, and that’s what he gives.

by statlr on Jan 19, 2009 5:17 PM PST reply actions  

Got to agree, bro...

…about Dunn, but as you know, I am much more hopeful about Rivera/Morales.

Matthews, of course, has turned out to be a bust, and at the very least, Dunn can’t be worse, right???

by LittleCupcakes on Jan 20, 2009 7:37 PM PST up reply actions  

this is all based on some mystery agent's assumptions

for which all we know was him just speaking in hyperbole to demonstrate how much his price has dropped.

The guy was asking for 4 years/56 million. Cant see him suddenly dropping his price tag by almost 30 million

by ihearhowie2.0 on Jan 19, 2009 5:18 PM PST reply actions  

Put him at first?

Some of you are out of your mind for offense.

by Wytelitning on Jan 19, 2009 5:32 PM PST reply actions  

$5 million

What the hell are we waiting for?

That’s nothing in modern-day free agency, and he is capable of 40 homers with a good OBP (even if he K’s in every other at bat).

by gilbert on Jan 19, 2009 5:48 PM PST reply actions  

this is the oddest off-season i've seen...

spring training starts in about one month and look who is still available:
orlando hudson, orlando cabrera, vizquel, crede, wiggington, abreu, ga, dunn, griffey jr., manny, irod, varitek, byrd, freddy garcia, garland, looper, pedro, mulder, oliver perez, pettitte, sheets, wolf, cordero, juan cruz, gagne.

by thejd on Jan 19, 2009 6:06 PM PST reply actions  

something tells me the Halos are going to end up with a couple of these guys.

Reagins is just waiting until their prices drop to the point where its a steal and then he is going to swoop in and snag a few of these (most likely pitchers since the Halos).

by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Jan 19, 2009 6:21 PM PST up reply actions  

DH Full Time

We cant keep blocking K-MO. The dude needs to be given the chance to prove himself.

 If we were to sign the Dunn the guy has to switch off DH/RF duties or its a no go.

by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Jan 19, 2009 6:20 PM PST reply actions  

DH/LF

with Rivera playing both corners. Dunn playing RF could be worse than him playing LF

Kotch would've had that.

by howiestheman on Jan 19, 2009 6:25 PM PST up reply actions  

No field

He butchers most of his value with the leather. It’s better to stick him at DH and take the hit that comes from the positional disadvantage.

replacement level analysis

by 442 on Jan 19, 2009 6:47 PM PST up reply actions  

His defensive value isnt much worse than Vlads however

so putting him in the field and letting Vlad DH and moving Rivera over to RF doesnt actually hurt our defense that much. While Dunn is a terrible fielder, so is Vlad and one will need to DH at all times.

Lets go angels

by anaheim angels on Jan 19, 2009 9:07 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah

They’re pretty similar players

replacement level analysis

by 442 on Jan 20, 2009 12:23 AM PST up reply actions  

Maybe the Yankees will sign Dunn out of spite

Cashman can call up small-market team GM’s and scream “HA!” and then hang up on them. You know, sort of like when A-Rod shouted “HA!” at Blue Jay infielders during a pop-up.

NY Times article about the incident

"Playoffs?? Don’t talk about — playoffs? You kidding me? Playoffs? I just hope we can win a game!"

by Fan Since 1981 on Jan 19, 2009 7:19 PM PST reply actions  

Mark Whicker thinks you're all wrong

And Adam Dunn is a base-clogging slug.

But I think you’re all right. And alright.

Saving countless runs with my defense.

by Sam Miller OCR on Jan 19, 2009 7:34 PM PST reply actions  

Mark Whicker isn't too bright

we’ve been over this before.

base-clogging? seriously? God forbid we have guys that take walks and get on base, huh?

Kotch would've had that.

by howiestheman on Jan 19, 2009 8:06 PM PST up reply actions  

As somebody smart said,

home runs are base Drano.

Saving countless runs with my defense.

by Sam Miller OCR on Jan 19, 2009 8:15 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

ha!

thats a good one.

Kotch would've had that.

by howiestheman on Jan 19, 2009 8:25 PM PST up reply actions  

If Dunn was that good

dont you think the Reds would be jumping at him for $5mil a year? They want nothing to do with him and they know more about him than all of us.

To me, thats all i need to know. Stats dont tell the whole story.

by ihearhowie2.0 on Jan 19, 2009 10:20 PM PST up reply actions  

Well the Reds suck

They’re nowhere near to contending until Bruce, Votto, Alonso, Cueto etc. can develop further. It makes no sense for them to splurge more money to go from 78 wins to 82 wins.

replacement level analysis

by 442 on Jan 20, 2009 12:24 AM PST up reply actions  

i don't think dunn is on a path for greatness...

but he has tools that this team/system are lacking right now. he’s a good fit for the halos and i think we should go for it.

by NoDakHalo on Jan 20, 2009 8:33 AM PST up reply actions  

ihearhowie

You and I think alike, if the asking price has fallen this low, where’s the rush to sign this young man, who is the missing piece, between contending, and pretending. Maybe other GM’s know something we don’t.

YOU DON'T KNOW THE POWER OF THE DARKSIDE.....

by halofolife on Jan 21, 2009 3:47 PM PST up reply actions  

"Base-Clogging"?

I think you can describe the whole Reds’ offense “base-clogging”! Imagine how productive they would have been w/o him… Better yet, imagine how productive we will be with him in our line-up! I want to watch that big ass corn fed lefty drop big flys all season, all 40+ of them!!!

by Big Perm on Jan 19, 2009 9:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Dunn is not a base clogging slug..

He is a base-unclogging slugger.

We need less players who hit them behind the runner, and more players who hit them behind the CF’er.

by statlr on Jan 20, 2009 4:43 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Dunn ... done!

It would make sense, and I’ll bet, that he takes a one year deal to play as much as possible with a contender, then tries the market again next year.

GMJ is a sunk cost, no need to play him every day. And Willits is just a AAAA or 6th OF.

I don’t really expect the Angels to sign him “since his BA with less than 2 outs and a man on 3rd” sux, but he’ll make a bunch of runs for some team anyway.

by elricsi on Jan 19, 2009 8:22 PM PST reply actions  

Well Well Lo & Behold

If you go back to posts awhile ago i said lets get Dunn as he hits for power, drives in runs and gets on base. Bat him in front of Vlad and he will see alot of fast balls and deliver what he averages. We could have got him a few weeks ago with the right presentation for 8 -10 mil a year which is cheap ………………. sign him for 4 years. let him DH 80% of the time and when he plays first pur Kendry in right and let Vlad DH and/ or keep him on the bench against the tough left handed starters then you have him later on to pinch hit. It’s been a very long time when we could say we had a power hitter available to hit for someone late in the game. Come on this is a slam dunk and everyone of you know it ……………………. Tony ……………………. lets just do it !!!!

by cookieman 57 on Jan 19, 2009 8:41 PM PST reply actions  

I HATE GMJ!

I know its a strong word and all,,, but damn, i just feel like he and his contract are putting so many offseason possibilities in a holding pattern. WTF!

by Big Perm on Jan 19, 2009 9:05 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

3 years at 5 million per.

If his price tag is that low, might as well do it for as long as possible.

by Chzburger Jones on Jan 19, 2009 11:20 PM PST reply actions  

And if we do it for 3 years...

Then he would come off the books the same year that Gary No-thank-ews does, making it easier to re-sign should we want to re-sign him.

by Chzburger Jones on Jan 19, 2009 11:20 PM PST reply actions  

I don't buy it

This sounds beyond speculative to my ears. I still think Dunn will get somewhere between $8 and $12 million a year. Pat Burrell got $16 million over two years, and Dunn is better or at least very close to equal to Burrell in every category. He’s also left-handed and three years younger. Milton Bradley got $30 million over three years, and he’s never even played 150 games in a single season. The Cubs can’t hide his frail body at DH either.

A one-year deal may be to Dunn’s advantage, since he could hit the market again next year and hopefully do better. He certainly couldn’t do worse. But $5 million? Coco Crisp makes more than that. Dunn is an interesting player, because he’s simultaneously over- and under-rated. Some people can’t look past his poor batting average and ridiculous strikeout rate. Others love his power and on-base ability, but excuse his horrific defense, worthless base-running, and grim projections past age 30. But no matter which side you’re on, nothing justifies Adam Dunn making less money than Coco Crisp.

by Suboptimal on Jan 20, 2009 12:07 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

Agree totally about the over/underrated thing

People either love him or hate him, not much middle ground

Lets go angels

by anaheim angels on Jan 20, 2009 9:17 PM PST up reply actions  

Long deal = bad

Dunn has “old player skills”, meaning that he ages poorly. Players who have no other skills than to get on base often drop out of baseball earlier than others. (Jim Thome is the only modern counter-example I can think of right now) While Dunn will be a good player for the next three years or so, anything longer than that is a risk.

replacement level analysis

by 442 on Jan 20, 2009 12:26 AM PST reply actions  

Frank Thomas, Jason Giambi

off the top of my head
Theres the 1B/DH example which many teams have with the slow slugger who even though his power numbers may decline a bit still has solid OBP numbers. True, his defense is terrible, but really can it get too much worse? Also, theres not much evidence to this point showing his power numbers on an early decline (even though he is still in his outer peak years so there wouldnt be much expected data about that)

Lets go angels

by anaheim angels on Jan 20, 2009 9:22 PM PST up reply actions  

I'd go one year

Knowing he’ll have a huge chip on his shoulder about the contract, offer one year at $7m. If he takes it, great – and PERHAPS he’ll show some accountability, responsibility, and results that would warrant a more financially rewarding deal in 2010. If he declines, let him go. I’d still rather get Sheets and Abreu at a WalMart discount anyway.

by mustard_man on Jan 20, 2009 6:42 AM PST reply actions  

i doubt he'd take one year...

especially if these $5 mill rumors are true. i do agree with you on abreu and sheets.

by NoDakHalo on Jan 20, 2009 8:34 AM PST up reply actions  

A little late to the party

but if this is true – it shold have been done yesterday.

I highly doubt that is the price though…

Outfielders For Sale! This weeks special...GMJ - see Tony for details!

by gorams77 on Jan 20, 2009 7:33 AM PST reply actions  

are you kidding

when I had a computer business, I would work at a certain price. Period. If I didn’t get my price, then I’d go elsewhere. If I didn’t get it, then I’d do something else. I wasn’t desperate

If all Dunn could get here was 5 million he’d go to Japan. So that’s a bunch of crap.

He’ll eventually come down to Earth with duration being say one year with an option and the price will then have have 3 or 4 bidders or maybe more.

by Kristy_Joe on Jan 20, 2009 10:24 AM PST reply actions  

Why did Reagins say Dunn won't be an Angel?

Reagins said in an interview with Whicker in the OC Register on 12/23/08 that he had spoken to Dunn’s representatives and that Dunn won’t be an Angel. http://whicker.freedomblogging.com/2008/12/23/reagins-it-was-time-to-move-on/632/ I’ve assumed it’s because Reagins told Dunn’s agents that the Angels envision Dunn DHing a lot and that Dunn refuses to DH. Looks like the Orioles also wanted Dunn as a DH and he said no recently. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/01/orioles-rumor-1.html Maybe this lack of interest will make Dunn change his tune about staying in the OF and accept primarily DHing; if so, maybe the Angels will get back in the picture. (I sure hope so.) Still don’t see him getting only $ 5 million per, though – he’s probably going to get around $10 million per for around 4 years.

by Bly-lovin on Jan 20, 2009 10:26 AM PST reply actions  

Dunn seems to see his value a little higher...

From the Washington Post, which is following the Dunn story because of the chance the Nats will sign him:

Right now, Adam Dunn wants a four-year, $56 million contract. And who knows, maybe he gets it. Maybe he also gets a Lamborghini, a new house, and exclusive use of the Burj Al Arab helicopter pad. Maybe he can hire Pat Burrell to babysit his kid.

Across baseball, Dunn’s reported asking price has left baseball executives — including those at 1500 S. Capitol St. — with their eyebrows just about raised up to their hairlines. Certainly you cannot fault Dunn for trying to name his price, but for the time being, he seems nowhere close to getting it. One agent I spoke with today said that “I think Dunn will get a max of $5 million per year. Anything more than that and I’d be surprised.”

Also in the story: Dunn is reported as telling teams he is interested only in playing the OF, not at 1B or DH. That kind of eliminates the Angels if he is sticking to his guns.

by George Kaplan on Jan 20, 2009 7:39 PM PST reply actions  

I have a feeling that sticking to his guns..

..might not be the best move for Mr. Dunn.

I don't know...I'm makin' this up as I go.

by ArkAngel on Jan 20, 2009 7:41 PM PST up reply actions  

So there is still hope

Once he gets a reality check, he’ll make some team real happy.

One good year with an AL club, then next year he can punch his own ticket.

by elricsi on Jan 20, 2009 7:48 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm sure someone will sign him to a one-year deal

Kinda like Andruw Jones’ two-year deal – although that one worked out bad. Get something, prove yourself again and try again in a couple of years in a (hopefully) better market. If that doesn’t happen, we should sign him to something like 8M/2 years. No one would have a problem with that.

replacement level analysis

by 442 on Jan 20, 2009 7:56 PM PST reply actions  

Maybe a one-year deal will work out well...

…you know, like Jeff Weaver’s one-year deal with the Angels.

BTW, one person would have a problem with $8M/2 yrs—Adam Dunn. That is a nice fantasy, but it simply won’t happen. If his price dropped that low, then the Nationals will be signing him to do what he wants to do in the first place: Play in the outfield, full time. There are other teams which will happily pay him much more than $8M/2 yrs.

He doesn’t want to play 1B, he doesn’t want to DH—he doesn’t want to be an Angel.

by George Kaplan on Jan 20, 2009 8:32 PM PST up reply actions  

And I kind of don't blame him

Dunn is still young enough that even if he signs a 4 year deal, he should still have one more fairly lucrative contract coming to him afterwards as long as he keeps producing decent numbers. I don’t blame him for wanting to avoid being pigeonholed as a 1b/DH in the middle of his career. Besides, one defensive metric even rates him as a slightly above-average defensive left fielder: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/11/17/662873/2008-lf-defense-by-pmr Sorry if this is a repeat (probably is) but here’s an interesting article on Dunn’s value: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/fair-for-dunn/ Again, I hope as an Angel fan that he agrees to DH for us, but it’s probably more likely that an outfielder whose defensive atrociousness is beyond debate and who can’t realistically expect another decent contract after this one will end up doing a lot of DHing for us. Bobby Abreu, anyone?

by Bly-lovin on Jan 20, 2009 8:58 PM PST up reply actions  

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