Top 10 Halos Prospects: Hank CONGER #2

2.  Hank Conger,  C. 

Bats: Switch

Birthday: 01/88 - Height: 6’0” - Weight: 205

A+ – 294 AB’s -.303/.333/.517  (.317/.348/.539 vs. right, .250/.282/.438 vs. left)

AA – (playoffs), 34 AB’s - .264/.264/.441

Despite losing almost half the season to injury, Hank stepped into the California League as a 20 year old and mashed High A pitching.  What’s more, he made an end-of-season jump into the AA playoffs and continued to hit the ball hard when it counted, accumulating 13 RBI’s in just eight games, with 6 of those RBI’s coming against stud Texas pitching prospects Neftali Feliz and Dereck Holland. Even as just a switch-hitting DH, he has value. Throw in his potential to develop into a run producing, middle of the line-up-type catcher, and there is reason to believe that the Halos used their only first round draft pick of the past four years wisely.

That said, Hank’s offensive ceiling remains constrained due to lackluster plate discipline and an often-ineffective right-handed swing.  He walked in just 4.7% of his 2008 plate appearances.  He doesn’t strike out much either - just 18.7% of his PA’s last year - but walking only once every 20 PA’s against A+ pitching does not bode well for his projectable OBP.  Until his walk rate improves, Hank will need to hit at least .300 to remain an elite prospect. He is certainly capable of doing that, but dependence on BA leaves him exposed to swings in luck with balls batted in play. There will be days, weeks, and possibly months when the hits just won’t drop in. 

I’m less concerned about his lefty/righty splits at the plate. While he only posted a .720 OPS from the right side in ‘08, this still represented improvement over the .647 OPS that he posted as a righty in ‘07.  The bump came entirely in the form of slugging - his right-handed ‘07 OBP was actually better than ’08’s - so we have to chalk up at least some of the progress to the slugging-friendly conditions of the California League. But he nevertheless improved, and I suspect that he will make further gains from the right side with more professional at bats.  At any rate, if he makes it as a catcher it should be no problem to schedule his off-days around avoiding tough southpaws. 

The biggest issues hanging over Hank are intertwined: his poor health record and his ability to remain behind the plate.  So far in his short career Hank has dealt with a broken bone in his wrist, back spasms, hamstring issues and most recently, a tear in his throwing shoulder.  Only the hammy issue was reoccurring, and that did not impact his 2008 season, so we can hope that the injuries represent just isolated speed bumps in his development, and don’t become a chronic drag.  However, the injuries have all but stopped Hank’s defensive development – he spent only 10 games behind the plate in ’08 (nod to Steven Smith) – but he does have decent agility for a big guy and a solid arm.  I saw him catch last summer and was impressed by his arm strength, though in his last full-time stint as a catcher in Cedar Rapids he nabbed only 21% of would-be base stealers. He must improve his skills behind the dish, and that starts with staying healthy.

Projection:

Hank appears headed to a full season in AA with the Arkansas Travelers.  If he can put in a healthy campaign, look for him to post cameo appearances in the bigs in September and again in 2010. As he approaches his peak, he could put up numbers similar to Ryan Doumit’s stellar 2008 campaign (318/.357/.501), but with more homerun power. If his plate discipline improves, the sky is the limit.  However, if injuries continue to limit him to DH, his projection begins to look more like Kendry Morales or Dodgers’ prospect Delwyn Young (though again, with a touch more home run power). That’s useful, but not elite. His ceiling remains high, which is why he ranks second on this list, but too much of his value remains in the projection and not in current performance.