A's Prospect Performances Vs. Halos

by rghan on Jan 4, 2009 1:40 PM PST Comment 8 comments

Using a scoring system that takes into account both performance and age, I compared Angels’ prospects to their A’s counterparts to see how the two systems stack up. Good news: despite a lot of press to the contrary, Oakland’s system just wasn’t that scary in ’08, even after the influx of talent from the Swisher, Haren, Blanton and Harden/Gaudin trades. While a handful of their kids look like they’ll make it in the major leagues, there is neither the depth nor the star potential to guarantee that Freemont's first few clubs will hang with the Halos or the Rangers.

Even with all the new talent, the A’s 30 top performing prospects only outscored their Halos counterparts by less than a percent. After combining the lists together to generate the combined top 30 prospect performances, 5 of the top 10 and 17 of the top 30 performances were all put up by Halos (though, to their credit, 11 of the next 15 performances all belonged to the A’s).

Here’s the combined list of the top ten performers:

Angels - Will Smith, sp, 19. Rk k/inning: 1.04 k/bb:12.67 go/ao: 1.30

Athletics - Brett Anderson, sp, 20.5. AA k/inning: 1.12 k/bb: 4.37 go/ao: 1.92

Athletics - Trevor Cahill, sp, 20.5. AA k/inning: 1.09 k/bb: 2.72 go/ao: 2.43

Athletics - Aaron Cunningham, cf/rf 22. AAA. OPS: .932

Angels - Sean Rodriguez, U, 23. AAA. OPS: 1.042

Athletics - Arnold Leon rp, 20. A+ k/inning: 1.14 k/bb: 4.45 go/ao 1.44

Angels - Baudilio Lopez, sp, 17.5. Dom k/inning: 1.24 k/bb: 4.65 go/ao: 1.45

Angels - Jordan Walden, sp, 20. A+ k/inning: 0.90 k/bb: 2.52 go/ao: 2.11

Angels - Alexander Torres, sp, 20.5. A+ k/inning: 1.19 k/bb: 2.14 go/ao: 2.26

Athletics - Adrian Cardenas, 2b, 21. AA OPS: 0.763

What makes the A’s dangerous is the frontline pitching on the horizon: Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill both dominated AA, and should join a rotation already featuring high-ceiling youngsters Gio Gonzalez and Dallas Braden this year or next. If things break right for two or three of these guys, I think the A’s should compete soon, regardless of what their other prospects do or don’t do.

That said, I was struck by how little talent the A’s seem to be developing themselves at the lowest levels. Only five of their top their performers came from Low A, the various rookie leagues, and the Dominican Summer League. In contrast, over half of the Halos’ top performances occurred at those levels, which accounts for why the A’s system is more highly touted. The A’s DSL teams - they have two of them - were particularly pathetic. Good news for the long term.

Lastly, I made a couple of changes to the Angels’ rankings: first, through inactivity the Angels front office effectively committed to Brandon Wood as an everyday fixture in the lineup, so I withdrew him from the prospect list (which in my mind counts only surplus, non-25 man roster talent). Second, I added Alexander Torres, a Rancho Cucamonga Quakes’ lefty whom John Sickles rated highly on his top twenty Angels prospects list. I missed him in my other rankings because he pitched just 53 innings in the California League. These turned out to be very good innings, but the sample size is small, so take his ranking here with a grain of salt. It will be a lot of fun to see how the 5’10” southpaw does in the coming year.

This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.

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great work

sounds like those A’s pitchers could be a pain in the ass in the coming years

by ihearhowie2.0 on Jan 4, 2009 3:18 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Where are the position players?

Both franchises have terrific track records at developing pitchers, but it also looks like both systems are lean on position players. I haven’t followed the A’s drafting history, but I know that the Angels have spent most of their high draft picks on pitchers in the last few years. There’s a critical mass of talent on the cusp right now in Aybar, Wood, Rodriguez, and Morales, but there might not be another group like this for a long time.

Pitching is the Angels’ strength, and I realize that maintaining that strength requires dedication to pitcher development, but all the same, I hope to see some of those first-round picks spent on position players. The Angels have been in contention long enough that they’re not gaining prospects by unloading major league players on other teams; instead, they’re losing them by signing Type A free agents and trading for the likes of Mark Teixeira. The lower levels in the system could use an infusion of new blood.

by Suboptimal on Jan 4, 2009 5:58 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I recall hearing some one of the commentators saying that

there is another group of big talent coming up right behind them………….meaning the 2008 Rancho Cucamonga team……………………..FWIW.

by wumbug on Jan 4, 2009 8:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It might be an impressive crew

Always keeping in mind (1) this is only high-A ball, and (2) promise in Rancho doesn’t mean a productive player in Anaheim.

That said, this team featured Sean O’Sullivan, Trevor Bell and Jordan Walden (aka, John Lackey Jr) on the mound, Hank Conger behind the plate, and Ryan Mount and Peter Bourjos in the field.

Next year, the Quakes fans should see Trevor Reckling, who may be the best pitching prospect after Walden. Those of you lucky enough to live close to the Epicenter should make an effort to see this kid pitch.

by George Kaplan on Jan 4, 2009 8:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It's a good group.

The next one has some star potential too: Reckling, as stated above, Fuller, Jacobo and Sweeney, Perez and Fish could all turn in great seasons.

by rghan on Jan 4, 2009 9:01 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

meant to reply above

by rghan on Jan 4, 2009 9:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

http://www.minorleagueball.com/

ANGELS SYSTEM IN BRIEF:
The Angels have some depth, but there is a wide range of opinion about a lot of their prospects. Mason Tobin, for example, gets just a Grade C from me, but ranked 10th on the BA list. I respect his arm strength, but a shoulder problem and a horrible K/BB ratio scare me away from a higher grade. Adenhart also has issues, scouts still seem to like him, but the numbers are poor. I’ve seen him twice in the minors the last two years, and both times he was throwing just 87-90 with shaky command. At some point he has to perform. Walden (who I love), Reckling, and Conger all seem like better prospects to me right now, even if further away from the majors.

Among hitters, the Angels have a lot of guys with offensive potential but bad strike zone judgment. They have an organizational philosophy revolving around contact, and while I’m not as fundamentalist about walks as I used to be, the BB/K marks put up by guys like Bourjos, Jacobo, and Jimenez are not to my liking. I’m not saying everyone has to be a walk machine, but these guys are all way too dependent on their batting averages to provide OBP in my opinion.

I like the lefty arms Reckling and Smith a lot. There are some projectable guys beyond that. Smith in particular looks like a big sleeper for 2009.

OAKLAND SYSTEM IN BRIEF:
    This system has a huge amount of depth now, but other than Anderson and Cahill even the potential impact guys have a few doubts about them. I opted for a conservative approach on a lot of these grades. Inoa was a tough grade, but decided to approach him like a high-upside high school kid entering his draft year. He could be literally anything from Juan Marichal to a guy who shreds his shoulder in rookie ball and is never heard from again.
    I expect complaints about ranking Outman ahead of guys like Hunter and De Los Santos, and perhaps I just like him so much because I’ve been tracking him since college, but I’m going with my gut on that one. Certainly some of the guys behind him have higher upsides, so adjust your own ranking accordingly depending on what you like yourself.
    Overall, this system has dramatically improved over the last couple of years thanks to aggressive trades and impressive drafting. I like how they have mixed polished talent and upside guys in recent drafts.

by Colorado Fan on Jan 5, 2009 11:37 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Actual performances this past year...

Do not really bear out Oakland’s “huge amount of depth” line at the lowest levels, though it may very well be true in the eyes of a more knowledgeable scout. Inoa has yet to throw a pitch in pro ball, so he does not show up at all in my rankings. Ditto for Hunter, who threw a grand total of two and two thirds innings. De Los Santos threw 23 innings before going down with an arm injury requiring surgery. A smattering of position prospects in Arizona rookie ball turned in decent performances, but I’d take our DSL team and Orem Owls any day of the week. I didn’t expect this disparity when I set out to run the numbers, but the A’s just weren’t good at the lower levels.
In A+ and higher, touted A’s like Doolittle, Patterson, Carter, and Outman rate well, but none of them are particularly young for the league. Carter, for example, was a full year older then, say, Conger. Cunningham was very good, and outscored all Angels position prospects. Cardenas was young and plays a valuable position, but he didn’t exactly mash. There are a handful of other position prospects at A+ and higher that outscored their Angels’ counterparts, but none of their numbers really jump off the page.
I think Oakland’s system is a tad overrated at the moment, and the numbers for ’08 bear this out. Texas, on the other hand, is scary.

by rghan on Jan 6, 2009 2:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs