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Two Outs? No Problem For Angels

I had read a comment the other day which stated that the Angels seemed to score a lot of run with two outs.  It got me thinking "Was this true?"  And if so, "Why?"
 
I've never had a problem figuring out the "what", in this case, do the Angels score more runs with two outs.  My problem has always been the "how" and "why". 

Star-divide

Using baseball-reference.com, I imported each teams, split stats for this season, and in fact, the Angels do score more runs with two outs. Actually, they score 40% of their runs after getting two outs:

Angels

Runs Scored

Zero outs

219

One out

294

Two outs

348

 
Now, the hard part;
1. Why do they score more runs with two outs, and;
2. How do they score more runs with two outs?
 
First I had to compare the Angels to the rest of the league with two outs.  Was it just a normal part of the game to score later in the inning?  At first thought, that would seem to make sense.  The more hitters to appear in the inning, the more likely the chances were that one would score.
 
Of the 14 American league teams, no team scored most of their runs with less than one out, which follows along with the above hypothesis.  However, 10 teams scored more runs with one out than with zero or two outs.  The Angels were just one of four teams to do most of their scoring after getting two outs in the inning. 
 
The four teams who scored later in the inning were the Angels, Rangers, Royals, and Red Sox

Outs

Angels

Red Sox

Rangers

Royals

Zero outs

219

189

173

143

One out

294

292

291

260

Two outs

348

359

298

264

When looking at the split stats for these 4 teams, you'll notice the Rangers and Royals outscored their one out run totals by 7 or less, while the Angels and Red Sox run totals were significantly higher.  I would take this to suggest the Royals and Rangers weren't exceptionally capable of scoring with two outs, but rather just as efficient with two outs as they were with one.  Thus, teams can be separated into 3 categories:
 
1. Score significantly more runs with one out;
2. Score roughly the same number of runs with one or two outs (+/- 10%);
3. Score more runs with two outs.
 
Teams scoring more runs with one out:  Orioles +54, Indians +43, and Mariners +38.
 
Teams scoring roughly the same with one or two outs (one out runs—two out runs) :  White Sox +22, Tigers +27, Royals -4, Twins +25, Yankees +15, A's +10, Rays +22, Rangers -7, and Blue Jays +15.

Teams scoring more runs with two outs:  Angels +54 and Red Sox +67.
 
I next looked at each team's ability to get on base and noted that the Angels and Red Sox drew their highest percentage of walks after getting two outs.  Except this didn't help explain their performance as ALL teams drew a highest percentage of walks after getting two outs.  It appears that hitters are much more selective if they are the potential third out. 

With two outs, the Angels and Red Sox led the league in Plate Appearances, Runs, Hits, Doubles, Batting Average, On Base Percentage, Slugging Percentage, Total Bases, and Batting Average on Balls In Play.  This is the "why" they've outscored the rest of the league.  They simply out-hit everyone else with two outs.  But this doesn't answer the "how".  How were the Angels and Red Sox able to basically "step-up" their game with two outs?

Was it possible the Angels and Red Sox set-up their two out run scoring earlier in the inning?  Possibly by doing one or more of the following;

  • Avoiding double plays
  • Stealing more bases
  • Bunting more often

Double Plays
I know my perception of the Angels after watching 100+ games this season was that they hit into a ton of double plays, and after looking at the data, that perception was somewhat justified.  Only one other team hit into more double plays than the Angels and Red Sox with none out.  Yet, when looking at the data a little more closely, the top four teams who hit into the most double plays with no outs were the Twins, Red Sox, Angels, and Yankees.   Four very good teams.  These four teams, plus the Tampa Bay Rays, also are the league leaders in on-base percentage with no outs.  Interestingly, the Rays hit into the least amount of double plays probably based on the fact they also led the league in stolen bases by almost 50% with none out.  This ability of the Rays to get on base and their speed once they did get on allowed them to score the third most runs before making an out.  The Yankees scored the most runs with none out primarily because they had the highest on-base percentage and out slugged every other team by leading the league in extra-base hits.

With one out in the inning, the Angels and Red Sox faired better in not doubling up the runners.  Surprisingly, the Angels were the third best team in avoiding double plays with one out.  However, both teams were just league average in scoring runs, and were below average in slugging percentage with one out.  

In my opinion, double plays did not play a big role in the Angels and Red Sox scoring abilities, although it did help slightly.  Since the four highest scoring teams also hit into the most double plays, it appears double plays are an indicator of good hitting clubs and have little effect on a teams' ability to score runs.  Obviously, double plays reduce scoring chances, but good hitting teams are going to score runs regardless of double plays.

Stolen Bases
The Angels were probably helped in scoring runs with two outs by their ability to steal bases, as they led the league in two out steals and attempted steals.  Their 95 attempted steals with two outs exceeded any other stolen base situation as it was 50% of their total stolen base attempts(a trend the Red Sox will have noted heading into the playoffs.)With their 73 stolen bases with two outs, the Angels no doubt boosted their chances of scoring.  I don't know the exact amount, but if a third of the stolen bases resulted in runs scored, that would account for almost 25 runs.  The Red Sox, on the other hand attempted 52 steals resulting in 37 stolen bases.  Using the same formula of a third scoring, the stolen bases by the Red Sox baserunners is nowhere near as big of an impact on their run total.

Bunts
The Angels are known for playing "small ball" by using bunts and situational hitting, and they have laid down 41 sacrifice hits so far this season(the Mariners have bunted a league-leading 55 times.)In contrast, the Red Sox have bunted just 19 times.  Bunting may have helped the Angels, but probably just slightly, and had little effect on the Red Sox's ability to score with two outs.

Conclusion
The Angels do score more runs with two outs than at any other inning situation because of numerous factors.  They hit better, run better and get on base better than most other teams.  Plus, there may be some "unmeasureable" element that the Angels do to increase their scoring chances.  I hate to mention "clutch", but the Angels do lead the league in hitting with runners in scoring position. 

As I stated in the opening paragraph of this article, finding the "what" was pretty simple.  Yes, the Angels do score more runs with two outs.  Resolving the "why" and "how" is beyond by ability, but hopefully I've been able to highlight some possible reasons the Angels have been one of the best two out run scoring teams in the A.L. this season.

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Very detailed analysis...

Too bad you provided some additional scouting fodder for the Red Sox! ;) You should have thrown some bogus numbers in there just to mis-direct them! ;)

I love this team.

by Downing Rules on Oct 1, 2009 9:13 AM PDT reply actions  

My guess is the small ball is the answer.

The Angels are far more willing to exchange outs for base runners and in doing so find themselves in more “2 outs with RISP” situations.

I know you stated the difference between bunting stats with us and the Red Sox, but they just might be more clutch than we are. I think the “why” and “how” for each team might be different.

Very good read. Thanks!

I have nothing important to say.

by thrill000 on Oct 1, 2009 9:17 AM PDT reply actions  

DID YOU GUYS HEAR ABOUT THE "UNNANIMOUS SOURCE?"

on Espn Buster O’Riely said that an “Unanimous scout” told him that the Angels were gonig to get swept they are not going to win nothing casue or hitters suck well heres what he said: "[The Red Sox] are going to pound the crap out of Kendry Morales with fastballs. Vladimir Guerrero has made a tremendous career out of turning on inside fastballs and driving them, but now you can beat him with the classic approach right out of the book — hard stuff in, soft stuff away. Torii Hunter is still what he always has been, a pretty good player who is essentially a mistake hitter."…………..id love to see em throw Kendry Fastballs…..this scout is an idiot

by Angels_48 on Oct 1, 2009 9:54 AM PDT reply actions  

To reiterate what someone said in a different post about the anonymous scout.

PLEASE throw Morales fastballs.

This team is our extended family, That's why we love them no matter what the record, no matter what the score.

by halofan4life on Oct 1, 2009 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions  

I’ve seen stuff from other scouts about how Kendry’s best hitting trait is his quick wrists. The guy gets the bat through the zone faster than anyone else on the team. According to Fangraphs, he’s only middle of the pack against fastballs and absolutely devastating against curveballs. So there is some truth in that.

But other guys on the Angels are just fine against the fastball, so I’m not worried.

I feel the need, the need...for speed!

by Gorbachav5 on Oct 1, 2009 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

Good stuff

A thought – I think the answer may have to do with batting average. Once you get to two outs, you can only score via hit. Outs don’t help you. So you would expect that teams with higher batting averages would do better at two out scoring.

The Angels and Red Sox are #1 and 4 respectively in average. The Yankees are #2, but they score all the time because their slugging is so high. I can’t really explain the Twins at #3, so maybe this explanation doesn’t hold water.

Obviously it’s more complicated than JUST batting average, but I think a lot can be explained. The rest might just be statistical noise.

I feel the need, the need...for speed!

by Gorbachav5 on Oct 1, 2009 10:00 AM PDT reply actions  

A question on how the numbers are tallied & methodology

If a runner is on 3rd and the batter, with 1 out, hits a sac fly, RBI groundout, or sac bunt, is the run counted as a “2 out run?” (The run crosses the plate after the 2nd out, so I would think so.) If so, could it be a matter of teams with the best situational hitting? We know Scioscia and company emphasize “productive outs.” How many 1 out sac flies, RBI groundouts, and successful bunts have the Angels and Red Sox had compared to the others?

by Brew Angel on Oct 1, 2009 10:08 AM PDT reply actions  

If there were a man on third with one out...

and the batter hit a sac fly, it counted as a run scoring with 1 out.

I looked at sac flies too when looking into this. The Angels lead the league with 19 SF with zero outs, the Red Sox are 12th with nine. With one out, the Angels are 7th with 33 SF and Boston is second with 38. The spread between first and last is just 16 SF, so I didn’t think that was a possible reason for their run scoring ability.

RBI groundouts aren’t tallied, or at least not where I got the data. That would be interesting to know.

by WiHaloFan on Oct 1, 2009 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

A coupleof other factors...

Great analysis. One thing that popped into my head as I read was the Angels ability to go first to third. I want to say they lead the league in that category and in turn puts men in prime scoring position more often than not. This couple with the the stolen base threat, and abundance of sacrifices should INCREASE the opportunities the Angels had to score with 2 outs.
It is probably a combination of “small ball”, putting pressure on the defense through aggressive baserunning (ie threat of stealing a base and going first to third), and just plain good situational hitting.
It would be interesting to see if you could chart how many time the Angels and Red Sox actually had men in scoring postion with 2 outs, and what the respective success rates for scoring those potential runs was. My theory is that the more opportunities you have, the more likely you are to actually cash in on those opportunities.

Do or do not. There is no try.

by Clip Show on Oct 1, 2009 10:29 AM PDT reply actions  

Nice Article

I enjoyed the breakdown of two out hits…interesting to see Royals on that list.

by Shaunzy2 on Oct 1, 2009 3:36 PM PDT reply actions  

How about this?

How many runners do teams average ALREADY HAVING on base (total) when there are 0 outs? 1 out? 2 outs?

How many runners do teams average ALREADY HAVING on 3rd base when there are 0 outs? 1 out? 2 outs?

How many runners do teams average ALREADY HAVING on 2nd base when there are 0 outs? 1 out? 2 outs?

How many runners do teams average ALREADY HAVING on 2nd and 3rd base when there are 0 outs? 1 out? 2 outs?

The worst thing is the day you realize you want to win more than the players do. - Gene Mauch

by Stirrups on Oct 1, 2009 4:16 PM PDT reply actions  

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