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Side by side match-ups for the upcoming series (Yankees vs. Angels)

Hello Angels fans!  I am a Yankee fan myself who is looking forward to the upcoming series, so I decided to compare the two teams at each position using my favorite offensive, pitching, and defensive stats from fangraphs.com.   I'm just going to use stats from the past month (except for defense), as that will be a more accurate display of what we can expect from a player in this series.  Just so you all know, I obviously want the Yanks to win, but if they do get beat by the Angels, I'll be rooting for them in the WS.  I think it's really classy what your organization is doing by giving Nick Adenhart's would-have-been postseason salary to his family.  That said, let's get to the numbers:

Offense:

C:  Posada - wOBA = .279           Napoli - wOBA = .370

Posada is in a bit of a slump, so if he can't break out of it, the Angels will have an advantage.  Posada is a .378 wOBA hitter for the year, so hopefully that HR he hit the other day will wake him up.  Tentative advantage Angels.

1B: Teixeira - wOBA = .465        Morales - wOBA = .344

Teixeira has been on a tear, while Morales has been relatively cool recently.  For the whole season, their difference is only .02, but Teixeira is hitting right now, when it counts.  Definite advantage Yankees.

2B: Cano - wOBA= .365          Kendrick - wOBA .416

Might seem like Angels have the advantage here, but keep in mind that Cano for the year is a .370 wOBA, while Kendrick is just a .339.  I think Kendrick has been playing out of his mind the past month, and will come back down to earth when he hits Yankee pitching.  Push

3B:  Rodriguez - wOBA = .443          Figgins - wOBA = .344

Not much of a discussion on this one.  A-Rod is vastly superior offensively, and he's blazing hot right now.  Definite advantage Yankees.

SS:  Jeter - wOBA = .410           Aybar - wOBA = .346

Not much discussion here either.  Jeter is Jeter, and Aybar is good, but he's no Jeter offensively.  Both players are right at their season averages.  Definite advantage Yankees.

LF:  Damon - wOBA = .298         Rivera - wOBA = .328

Pretty close, however, Damon is in a bad slump, while Rivera is playing at about his year average.  The fact that they are this close when one is slumping badly and the other is playing average says that if Damon just comes back to average, the Yankees will have the advantage.  Advantage Yankees.

CF:  Cabrera - wOBA = .316          Hunter - wOBA = .319

Close, but Hunter has a much better season average, so if he starts playing well again, it won't be close.  Definite advantage Angels.

RF:  Swisher - wOBA = .388         Abreu - wOBA = .387

Wow, very close.  Surprisingly enough, their full season wOBA's are separated by just .001 as well.  This is the definition of a push, lol.

DH:  Matsui - wOBA = .416            Guerrero - wOBA = .343

Matsui has hit ridiculously well this year.  He's a .378 wOBA for the season, while Guerrero is right at his season average.  Guerrero just isn't the same ol' Vladdy everyone (even Yankee fans, you have to admit it) knows and loves.  I really don't think he's recovered from that injury he had earlier this year.  Definite advantage Yankees.

Going by a grading system of 2 points for a definite advantage, 1 point for a slight advantage, and 0 for a push, we come up with:

Yankees:  9    Angels:  3

And just to wrap it up, here's the full team stats for the past 30 days and full year:

Yankees (30 days) = .363, (year) = .366

Angels (30 days) = .334, (year) = .346

 

Pitching:

Sabathia - WHIP = 1.24,  ERA = 2.64,  FIP = 3.42            Lackey - WHIP = 1.38,  ERA = 4.25,  FIP = 3.8

Both are great, but Sabathia is superior.  Definite advantage Yankees.

Burnett - WHIP = 1.35, ERA = 2.92, FIP = 3.29               Weaver - WHIP = 1.24, ERA = 3.52, FIP = 4.37

Burnett will have a higher WHIP because he walks so many guys, but his lower FIP and ERA really show that he will give up fewer HR's, and he has the ability to strike guys out when he's in a jam. Going to give the advantage to the Angels, however.

Pettitte - WHIP = 1.64, ERA = 4.64, FIP = 4.32                  Kazmir - WHIP = 1.13, ERA = 1.80, FIP = 3.23

Kazmir has had a solid month, no doubt.  I think everyone knows he's capable of being dominant.  Pettitte, on the other hand, has had a below average month, the real glaring number being his high WHIP.  Looking at full season stats would give the advantage to Pettitte, but I believe that Kazmir is back on track.  However, you can't disregard Pettitte's postseason experience:  36 games started versus just 6 for Kazmir.  All things considered, I'm calling this a push, but this game will hinge on which Kazmir shows up:  the one from his time spent with the Rays this year, or the one he's been for the Angels.

For relievers, I'm picking the closers and 8th inning men.

Hughes - WHIP = 1.13, ERA = 2.53, FIP = 3.10                    Oliver - WHIP = 1.21, ERA = 1.93, FIP = 1.67

Oliver has pitched well recently, while those two runs Hughes gave up the other day are inflating his numbers.  For season averages, Hughes is much better, so advantage Yankees.

Rivera - WHIP = .94, ERA = 1.69, FIP = 3.68                         Fuentes - WHIP = 1.89, ERA = 4.00, FIP = 5.76

This isn't even close.  Seriously, I don't understand how Fuentes is their closer, he's not even the best reliever on their team.  In fact, looking at the numbers, there are 3 relievers on the team that have done better than Fuentes this year.  For the Yankees, only Hughes has been better than Rivera, and that's saying a lot since Rivera has been great this year.  Definite advantage Yankees.

So the pitching tallies:

Yankees:  5         Angels:  1

Defense (using the UZR/150 stat from fangraphs.com, except for C):

C:  Posada - FP = .990, CS% = 28% PB = 8                 Napoli - FP = .986, CS% = 22%, PB = 5

Defensive value is difficult to quantify for catchers.  Neither of these guys are known for their defense, so this is a push.

1B:  Teixeira -  UZR/150 = -2.4                   Morales -  UZR/150 = 4.4

This is going to shock Yankee fans, but Mark Teixeira actually had an off year defensively this year.  He doesn't make many errors, but his range was much lower this year than in previous years.  Morales has better range, but he makes more errors.  Advantage Angels.

2B:  Cano - UZR/150 = -4.9                           Kendrick -  UZR/150 = 3.4

Cano makes a lot of errors, for all the dazzling plays he also makes.  He also has limited range, so he doesn't get to as many balls, but his great arm helps him throw guys out on the balls he does get to.  Kendrick just has more speed, and makes fewer errors, though.  Definite advantage Angels.

3B:  Rodriguez - UZR/150 = -7.6                  Figgins - UZR/150 = 11.8

Figgins has excellent range, while A-Rod does not.  I can't say how much of his range this year was reduced by the hip injury, but I think it's safe to say that even A-Rod at 100% does not touch Figgins defensively.  Definite advantage Angels.

SS:  Jeter - UZR/150 = 5.3                        Aybar - UZR/150 = 6.3

This actually surprised me.  I thought Aybar would definitely win this match-up, but the numbers are close enough to call it a push.

LF:  Damon - UZR/150 = -11.9                Rivera - UZR/150 = 12.9

We all know how awful Damon is in the field.   Rivera is actually a good defensive outfielder.  Definite advantage Angels.

CF:  Cabrera - UZR/150 = -2.5                 Hunter - UZR/150 = -3.5

This was also surprising to me.  The two had about the same range this year, but Cabrera's stronger arm gave him the advantage.  I would call this match-up a push.  However, here is my argument for starting Gardner over Melky in center:  They have identical wOBA's, but Gardner has a UZR/150 of 13.3!  That's a gigantic defensive upgrade.

RF:  Swisher - UZR/150 = -1.9                   Abreu - UZR/150 = -4.6

These two corner outfielders are polar opposites:  Swisher has great range, as you would know if you've watched games this year, but he doesn't have a great arm.  Abreu, on the other hand, has god-awful range, but has a cybernetic cannon attached to his right shoulder.  In the end, the extra balls that Swisher will track down give the Yankees an advantage.

Ok, here are the defensive totals:

Yankees:  1             Angels:  7

Grand Totals:

Yankees:  15         Angels:  10

 

What we learn:  The Yankees have good advantages in offense and pitching, but the Angels have a much better defensive team.  Offense and pitching are typically regarded as more important than fielding defense, so I believe the numbers show that the Yankees have a distinct advantage in the coming series.




This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.

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I wouldn't call Oliver our 8th inning guy. JEPSEN.

Also, I think you should compare hitters through their lineup spots. Because not all players at the same position have the same offensive jobs.

"Figgins' OBP is still over 40!" -Steve Physioc

by Figgi4life on Oct 13, 2009 8:39 PM PDT via mobile reply actions   0 recs

this...

in particular Arod vs. Figgy… i’ll agree that Arod is probably the pick but impact-wise Figgy is just as important. They both excel in the roles they play… one as a cleanup man, and one as the leadoff man

#34 R.I.P.
Heavenly Offense

by BigBangRobbDawgg on Oct 13, 2009 9:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Figgy and A-Rod have different offensive roles

Figgy is a leadoff hitter while Arod is the protypical third baseman with lot of power. You can’t really compare their value offensively

Bring back Lackey

by Angelsrthebest101 on Oct 13, 2009 10:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

thats... pretty much what i said yeah...

i agree with you

#34 R.I.P.
Heavenly Offense

by BigBangRobbDawgg on Oct 13, 2009 10:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think

that these two will be the keys to the entire series. If A-Rod plays well, the Yankees will win. If Figgins plays well than we will win.

by ryanfea on Oct 14, 2009 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

What if they both play well?

Apocalypse?!!

Let's do this for Nick Adenhart, Courtney Stewart, and Henry Pearson.

by AlanFalcon on Oct 14, 2009 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

that...

 is a good point, didn’t think of that. And I actually didn’t know who your 8th inning guy was, so I picked the guy with the best season stats in your bullpen, which was Oliver.

by Wraithpk on Oct 14, 2009 6:25 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's an interesting point in of itself

I want to say thanks for trying to break down your team player for player against ours. However, not knowing who our 8th inning guy was, (and has been for more than a month) plus comparing Figgins to Arod explains why this breakdown looks like it does.

Saying Morales is slumping after his HR against boston then, claiming that Posada is breaking out of his slump hopefully because he did the same thing fills in all the blanks of your breakdown.

We take serious...comedically.

by Versolt on Oct 14, 2009 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, I guess we shouldn't even play the series then...

I can’t remember a series where the Angels were actually a favorite, so it kind of calms me to know that we are such a big underdog for this series.

Can we all just admit that both teams are really F-ing good and that no matter how you crunch the numbers none of us know how this is going to play out?

That being said, if the Halos find a way to win two of the first three games I LOVE our chances against CC on three days rest in game 4.

by KendrickExperience on Oct 13, 2009 9:09 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Any system that defines Jeter ver. 2009 the defensive equal of Aybar ver. 2009...

…is precisely the system I want our opposition using to construct their competitive strategy.

You too can be a baseball media analyst! Just don't allow your need to be wrong in public to get in the way of your ignorance.

by Stirrups on Oct 13, 2009 9:26 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree that it’s somewhat surprising, since Aybar is a defensive whiz. They aren’t exactly equal, Aybar is still somewhat better than Jeter, but everyone agrees that Jeter’s range greatly increased this year compared to last year. His stats put him among the league’s best in defense at SS this year. Regardless, Aybar is a bit better.

by Wraithpk on Oct 14, 2009 6:27 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ok. let me simplify.

“Any system that insists that Derek Jeter has range is precisely the system I want our opposition using to construct their competitive strategy.”

You too can be a baseball media analyst! Just don't allow your need to be wrong in public to get in the way of your ignorance.

by Stirrups on Oct 14, 2009 8:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

haha

no, I agree, Jeter doesn’t have very good range at SS. Where he makes up for it is in that he almost never makes a fielding error, and rarely makes throwing errors.

by Wraithpk on Oct 15, 2009 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

WTF

is wOBA?

*Ade-Rock 34*

by TheTypingFiend on Oct 13, 2009 9:27 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

wOBA

This

That'll only happen if that one prospect is the second coming of Christ and redemption for mankind can only be achieved by smacking many balls out of the yard.
-The Limey

by anaheim angels on Oct 13, 2009 11:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

it...

is an all-around offensive ability stat, like OPS, but much more accurate. The failings of OPS being that SLG is naturally bigger than OBP, but not necessarily more valuable, and HR’s aren’t 4x more valuable than singles. wOBA corrects these flaws. The numbers you get can be equated to OBP in terms of how good a player is: .400 or better is a great hitter, .340 is about average, and a poor hitter is below .300

by Wraithpk on Oct 14, 2009 6:31 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This.

Well done TheOptimist. I couldn’t have said it better myself.

Yankee fan guy… what’s your name…Wraithpk, consider his points and make some adjustments.

by BruinHalo on Oct 13, 2009 9:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Those stray stones are always so convienantly placed

"Figgins' OBP is still over 40!" -Steve Physioc

by Figgi4life on Oct 13, 2009 10:15 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

That's 'cause the last guy kicked it right to you!

Let's do this for Nick Adenhart, Courtney Stewart, and Henry Pearson.

by AlanFalcon on Oct 14, 2009 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You were too soft on this guy Optimist...

As you pointed out, whenever the last month of the season is in the Yankees favor (Tex, A-rod, Jeter, etc) he counts it as a huge advantage to the Yankees, whenever the hot player is an Angel or a slumping player is a Yankee, (Kendrick, Damon, Posada, etc) he discounts it as a fluke and looks at season numbers.

He didn’t follow is platform for the pitchers, he just put up season numbers there which is decieving as well. We all know the Angel starters have pitched exceeding well in the last month of the season and first round of the playoffs…

Bottom line, this side by side review wasn’t worth the time it took to read…

by Jietoh on Oct 14, 2009 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

On the contrary, he didn't put up Season numbers.

I know this because AJ Burnett had a 4.04 ERA over the course of the season. However, he didn’t use the September numbers either, which I find…odd. In fact, now that you mention it, I’m not sure WHAT numbers he used for the starting pitchers. Thank you for bringing it my attention.

#34 Forever
Plugging the upside since 2006.
Never give up, never surrender!

by TheOptimist on Oct 14, 2009 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Figured it out, he's using numbers from the last 30 calender days.

Essentially. from Sept. 13th to Oct. 13th. Which is fortunate in a lot of ways for AJ Burnett, since on Sept. 12th he put up quite a stinker, 6ER, but since then he hasn’t given up more than 2 in 5 starts. I’d have expected him to just use September Oct. numbers, since every day shifts the Last 30 days numbers around, especially for position players, but whatever.

#34 Forever
Plugging the upside since 2006.
Never give up, never surrender!

by TheOptimist on Oct 14, 2009 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Let me explain my reasoning...

First, on Damon’s slump vs. Morales slump. I would assume that both of them will play somewhere in between their last month statistics and their year average, unless one of them suddenly turns from ice cold to hot, which can happen. The difference in my judgment in their categories is that Morales’ season average is lower than Teixeira’s, so even if he returns to average form, and Teixeira cools down to average form, Teixeira will still have the advantage. With Damon, he is only slightly lower than Rivera in the past month. However, that number is right at average for Rivera, but is far below Damon’s average. There is a fair chance that Damon will return to his average, which would give him an advantage over Rivera if he remains average.

With Kendrick, I’m an avid baseball fan, so I’m aware of the hype Kendrick came with. I know he’s a better player than his season numbers suggest, but a .416 wOBA is not sustainable for him. That would make him one of the top 5 hitters in baseball, which he’s not. The law of averages suggest that this number will come down. Don’t take it as an insult that I gave him a push with Cano, Cano is one of the best hitting 2B in the league (without men on base…).

As for Hughes, yes, I only used his reliever splits. You make a good point about his lack of postseason experience, taking that into consideration, I would be inclined to call that match-up a push as well.

For the 3 starter rotation, only game 4 would be on short rest. The rest would all be on 4 days rest, including Sabathia again if he pitched game 7.

For the bench, I just didn’t feel like going into the numbers for that many players, but the Yankees have some quality bench players as well. Expect to see Gardner pinch-running and used as a defensive replacement late in games. You might also see Hairston used as a defensive replacement in the outfield. I’m not really familiar with the Angel’s bench players, so I don’t feel adequately qualified to judge them against the Yankee bench players.

For the managers, that’s impossible to quantify. I feel they are both good managers, although Scioscia certainly has more postseason experience as a manager.

Also, the random numbers assigned to advantages and the totals don’t really mean anything, lol. Either way, gunna be a good series.

by Wraithpk on Oct 14, 2009 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I admit I didn't know till a bit ago that there was an offday before game 5.

However, I’m still curious about your take on a 3 man rotation vs. a 4 man rotation, particularly since the Matchups you posted their aren’t what’s going to happen. Saunders is pitching game 2 and Weaver most likely game 3, with Kazmir going up against Sabathia in game 4. After Lackey vs. Burnett in Game 5, it’s hard to know what will happen.

Saunders numbers for the last 30 days, btw: 4-0, 2.81 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.91 FIP. More to the point, he’s won his last 7 decisions after taking a 15 day stint on the DL to rest a shoulder injury he’d been pitching through. Said injury inflated his season numbers quite a bit.

More on the bench. Late inning defensive replacements aside, there’s not much those players are going to do during the series. I would lay good odds that Maicer Izturis plays more innings and gets more atbats then all of them put together. The only way that won’t happen is if Jose Molina catches Burnett. As for pinch runners, that bench make up gives the Angels 3 said persons.

#34 Forever
Plugging the upside since 2006.
Never give up, never surrender!

by TheOptimist on Oct 14, 2009 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah...

right after I did this I read that the Angels were using a different rotation than they did in the ALDS.

by Wraithpk on Oct 15, 2009 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It also looks like that no 4th starter thing might be in trouble.

Weather in New York could throw a wrench into the Yankees whole plan of attack.

#34 Forever
Plugging the upside since 2006.
Never give up, never surrender!

by TheOptimist on Oct 15, 2009 5:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Here is what I like about this preview

The poster thinks the magic fairy dust is only getting sprinkled on one team…

by Rev Halofan on Oct 13, 2009 9:40 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Darn it!

I just hate it when other teams individual players are better than our TEAM. How have we ever managed to even win a single game against these guys in the past? I guess we must have been LUCKY.

"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you." - Woody Hayes

by johnnyangel101 on Oct 13, 2009 10:10 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

^this^

pwnage of the whole steenkin methodology!

by Rev Halofan on Oct 13, 2009 10:59 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

oh wow...totally rec'd...

good stuff my friend.

Do it for Nick '09

by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Oct 13, 2009 11:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You made me snort.

Good thing I decided to work from home today or my co-workers would have been looking at me funny.

by rmhalofan on Oct 14, 2009 7:45 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hilarious!

I love it

Free Brandon Wood!

by gorams77 on Oct 14, 2009 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

lol...

well, the Royals have some good players, they just can’t win games. They might have played better in the final month of the season, but that’s why I also looked at the season averages when comparing the players.

by Wraithpk on Oct 14, 2009 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

FAIL

Peanuts...Get your Overpriced Peanuts!

by Angel Hawker on Oct 14, 2009 8:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

wrong

I looked at the season averages of everyone. The assumption I made in every match-up was that the player’s performance would be somewhere between their season average and their last 30 day average. The facts are that the Yankee batters had slightly better stats than the Angel batters over the whole season, so this method did end up favoring the Yankees a bit.

by Wraithpk on Oct 15, 2009 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

A few things

             First, Howie Kendricks wOBA will not drop, he was slumping early in the season. Also, we have Maicer to platoon.
            Second, Juan Riveras wOBA on the year=.348 (career .341) not around .328
           Third, wheres the fourth starter? I know the Yanks are talking about the three starter rotation, but that would stress out the bullpen and would negatively impact CC and or Burnett. Even with all the talk of CC being more rested, in reality, hes thrown about 15 innings less this year than last year at this point. And the stress of last year doesnt just go away either.
              Fourth, you cant just substitute other players into the equation defensively, while counting the offense separately. Ill take Mathis’s Defense and Napolis offense. Defenite advantage Angels. The problem is that Jike Mapoli does not exist. Nor does Brelky Gabrera. It just doesnt work. Why not take the wOBAs and UZRs and average them out over a nine inning game and see the difference, as that would be more telling than Yankees 10, Angels 5 or whatever.
             The Yankees scored what, like 12 runs in 3 games against the tired Twins 3-4-5 starters? The Angels scored 16 runs in 3 games against Lester, Beckett, and Bucholz and Pappelbon. The Yankees pitching held the Twins to like 8 runs to an average offense. The Angels pitchers held the Red Sox to 7 runs, the third best offense in the league (and takin out 2 innings of Kazmir, its 2 runs). So what was that about momentum or whatever?
             Calling the Yankees +.02 of wOBA. The difference over 38 ABs is .66 runs a game offensively. Pitching wise, CC has a .4 in his favor over Lackey, but Burnetts seasonal FIP is 4.33, so calling him a 4 seems reasonable. Saunders is starting game 2, not Weaver. Saunders seasonal FIP is 5.2 or so, but he has been pitching much better after his DL stint, so well call him about a 4.1 or so. Now the third starter, Pettite v Weaver. Pettite is definitely not a lock to do well because he has 36 postseason starts. That means nothing. 4.3 FIP vs Weaver 4.2. Now to the fourth starter, Gaudin (?) v Weaver. Gauden lets say has a 4.2 FIP, while Kazmir well say has 3.6 (adjusted up to take into account some possible regression). Why not just combine all the relievers into basically a starter, just to make calculations easier. According to Fangraphs reliever Values, the relievers have basically been a push (the yankees 30 more innings pitched accounts for the higher value), but since the backend of the Yankees pen is better, why not just put a .5 FIP advantage to the Yanks. Now adding them all up, we somehow get that the pitching is a dead push (I swear, I did not adjust numbers to achieve this). The Yankees still have a .66 r/g advantage at the moment. Now onto defense. Catcher is really impossible to quantify, but why not call the Angels catchers a +3 UZR/150 based on arm strength and game calling (Posada is awful at both, while the Angels catchers have at least decently strong game calling skills/arms). It does seem odd that Tex has a negative UZR/150 value, so ill just put Angels +2 UZR/150 at first. Now at second, the Angels have a +8.5 UZR/150 advantage. At short, even though Im fairly positive Aybar is better than +1 UZR/150 over Jeter, why not just leave it for shits and giggles. Now to third, where Figgins is 19.5 UZR/150 better than A-Rod. Just summing up the Outfields, the Angels are +20 UZR/150 over the Yankees OFers (no Gardner, because then the wOBA would have to be changed, etc…). Adding up the UZR and dividing by 150 would give the UZR advantage for 1 game. That comes out to be .293 runs/game.
          Adding it all together, the Yankees are about .3 runs better per game. Time to do a quick test: .3*162/10=5 wins over a full year. The Yankees had 6 more wins than the Angels, so its not too completely off. In a 7 game series, .3 runs per game is practically a push, and that doesn’t take into account many factors, including base-running, where the Angels most likely make up at least .1 or .2 runs/game, making this series to be pretty damn even, instead of just saying 15-10, where it was implied that the Yanks were superior.

That'll only happen if that one prospect is the second coming of Christ and redemption for mankind can only be achieved by smacking many balls out of the yard.
-The Limey

by anaheim angels on Oct 13, 2009 11:01 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Wow, that turned into alot longer of a post than I originally intended

That'll only happen if that one prospect is the second coming of Christ and redemption for mankind can only be achieved by smacking many balls out of the yard.
-The Limey

by anaheim angels on Oct 13, 2009 11:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Kendrick’s wOBA will not stay that high given enough time. He might stay hot for the duration of the series, but that is not his true talent level. Sustained numbers like that would put him in the top 5 hitters in baseball.

Rivera’s season average is .348. His last 30 days is .328. That’s not a huge discrepancy, so I said he’s playing about at his average.

Only game 4 will be pitched on short rest. CC is a horse, though, so it shouldn’t negatively impact the bullpen, or even him. Remember he pitched like a month and a half on short rest last year before it negatively impacted his performance.

I used the same exactly players for both offense and defense, I didn’t mix and match any of them. I suggested that Gardner should be started instead of Cabrera for his defensive prowess, but in the match-up I did use Cabrera, since he will likely start.

You really shouldn’t short-change the Twins. Their offense isn’t as potent as the Angels, but they’re 7th in the league in team wOBA. Also, we faced their 3 statistically best starters. And we outscored them in the series 15 – 6.

For the pitchers, I would give game 3 advantage to the Angels if it’s Weaver pitching, I hadn’t seen the Angels were switching their rotation when I posted this.

Everything else you say I agree with except for giving Napoli an edge in defense, his CS% is even lower than Posada’s. I definitely agree that the Angels have a huge advantage in defense overall, and that this series is going to be close.

by Wraithpk on Oct 14, 2009 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Howie Kendrick: Potential future batting title champ... I thought you said you knew this?

And once you started talking up the Twins, I stopped reading.

Let's do this for Nick Adenhart, Courtney Stewart, and Henry Pearson.

by AlanFalcon on Oct 14, 2009 2:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

that...

will be hard to do as long as Mauer and Ichiro are still in the AL. And don’t discount the Twins, they have a good offensive team. They need some starting pitching before they will be serious WS contenders, though.

by Wraithpk on Oct 15, 2009 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Let me try to retract that slightly

Kendricks wOBA will stay closer to .400 than .330. Overall though, you did make some good work, although I disagree with your scoring mechanism

That'll only happen if that one prospect is the second coming of Christ and redemption for mankind can only be achieved by smacking many balls out of the yard.
-The Limey

by anaheim angels on Oct 15, 2009 6:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah...

the scoring mechanism really doesn’t mean anything, it was just a bs thing to count how many advantages each had. I probably shouldn’t even have done it, it wasn’t really scientifically based.

by Wraithpk on Oct 16, 2009 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

OW

This team is our extended family, That's why we love them no matter what the record, no matter what the score.

by halofan4life on Oct 15, 2009 8:00 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hey, Skankee fan...You can take your stats and shove them up your ass.

I say that with the utmost respect for you and your team though.

However, the Angels have knack for defying statistical analysis and replacing it with things you can measure like grit, heart and desire. While the Yankees have a knack for, well, collecting their paychecks.

Do it for Nick '09

by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Oct 13, 2009 11:30 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

That’s mature, what are you, 12? I didn’t come here knocking your team, so go troll somewhere else.

by Wraithpk on Oct 14, 2009 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

troll?

Do you see my on the Yankees blog? Have I commented once on the Skankees site? Not once.

I mean it when I say that with the utmost respect, pal. You got one hell of a team but all these stats dont mean shit when it comes to game time so like i said…put em up your arse.

Do it for Nick '09

by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Oct 14, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Chill out

Represent HH better.

by BruinHalo on Oct 14, 2009 7:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

seriously

The Yank fans that have come on here the last week have been respectful and (mostly) insightful. Have some class.

by dmhead on Oct 15, 2009 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

if you’re saying that the stats won’t mean anything when the games start, I agree. I never said these stats mean the Yankees will definitely win. Baseball is played on the field, not on paper. I just think it’s fun to try and predict how it might play out.

And I’m not sure why you’re so obviously bitter, we haven’t beaten you guys in the postseason in forever.

by Wraithpk on Oct 15, 2009 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pay no attention to him

I assume I can speak for everyone at HH when I say:

We appreciate your input here. As long as you never make fun of the location/rally monkey/Scioscia/Adenhart/Arte, your comments are welcome.

by BruinHalo on Oct 15, 2009 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

any...

team that knocks out the Red Sox are friends of mine lol.

by Wraithpk on Oct 15, 2009 5:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I dont really appreciate you being all over me...

I dont think I said anything that inappropriate. I apologize if I hurt anyone feelers but this isnt about Wraithpk…its about these stats and their ridiculousness. Take JohnnyAngels’s post a few above this comparing the Halos to the Royals. What does that tell you? To me, it says these stats dont mean a thing.

So maybe I should say…“Take those stats and send them back to the guy/gal/computer who created them.”

There. Do I have enough class for you Bruin? I like how you think I dont have class when our site moderator calls CC Sabathia “Some Fat Guy”…

Ease up a bit, dude…

Do it for Nick '09

by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Oct 15, 2009 11:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agree completely

That'll only happen if that one prospect is the second coming of Christ and redemption for mankind can only be achieved by smacking many balls out of the yard.
-The Limey

by anaheim angels on Oct 16, 2009 10:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

my take

CC got rolled on twice by the Angels’ c & d lineup.
Tiexiera just went 2/12 and hit .225 against the angels this year out of shame.

Angels in 4-7

by Quinlan's Goofy Swing on Oct 14, 2009 2:02 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

The numbers mean squat

You can analyze this up the whazzoo and it ends up meaning squat. The Mariners won 116 games in 2001 and would have squashed any opponent statistically, even the Yankees, so I guess they beat the Yankees that year in the ALCS!!!

This series will boil down to who plays well when it counts. If both teams do, I think the Yankees have a slight advantage because of a better bullpen. But that’s unlikely to happen. Most likely, one team will play better, and we won’t know until it happens.

So we can spend hours analyzing the unanalyzable. The series will boil down to which team shows up because both are good enough to win it.

by TheCaz on Oct 14, 2009 4:30 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

i totally agree...

baseball is impossible to predict. It’s fun to try though =)

by Wraithpk on Oct 14, 2009 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe, but you bringing this here is just annoying because you didn't choose a single set of standards and stick to them for every player,

let alone the entirety of both rosters.

Another thing you didn’t consider is the batting order, because that does make a difference. You seem to think that doesn’t matter, but it does.

THIS… IS… ANAHEIM!!

by opiejeanne on Oct 14, 2009 11:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

well...

I honestly don’t know the order they Angels use in their lineup, so going by position was the way I went. If you want to reanalyze it by lineup spot, that would be interesting to read.

by Wraithpk on Oct 15, 2009 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

hmm do we really want to do that?

We might have an advantage in line-up depth (especially if Molina starts), but they have some seriously high-end hitters in those first 4 spots.

by dmhead on Oct 15, 2009 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

What is their likely starting lineup? I’ll redo the numbers, and just use the full season stats.

by Wraithpk on Oct 15, 2009 5:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know being a fan doesn't necessarily lend itself to objectivity...

…but for the sake of personal credibility, you could have at least tried.

As it is, you look like an idiot.

I see red people

by The Limey on Oct 14, 2009 5:24 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Becomes an incredible waste...

of time when Adam Kennedy hits three home runs in one game.
Posts like these convince me that you have never played the game, or anything else competitive at a high level.

by Wytelitning on Oct 14, 2009 7:38 AM PDT via mobile reply actions   0 recs

The numbers mean squat x2

Either team is capable of winning this series and for that matter, every team who made it to the LCS can win their series as well.

The Yanks might be better on paper, but we all know that means squat. I personally would like to see them exorcise their post-season demons against them. Why not? The Angels were able to finally beat Boston… ;)

By the way, if you guys want to see what Yankees fans think come check out the lohud yankees blog. I’m sure you can use all your sage like knowledge to let Yankees fans know who the better team is.

http://yankees.lhblogs.com/

That site gets over 2000 posts on a gameday and about 1000 on an off day. I post as DB.

by DocBooch on Oct 14, 2009 9:57 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Because the Angels are the superior team on paper?

Or you to nit pick a couple holes in his analysis. If you want to “break down” an analysis, start with that poor excuse of one on this site earlier in the week.

Face the facts bro, Yanks are the better team. Record wise, stat wise, and historically speaking. You have beat us during the regular season, except this year, and in the past two playoff appearances. There is no doubt you guys have our number, but that didn’t hold up 9/22 and 9/23 when your little monkey lost his magic.

 For the people who love to throw out the 200 million dollar payroll, don’t be jealous. You weren’t even in the running for Tex because your team didn’t want to do what it takes to get the best player. The Yankees have the highest payroll because of their determination to put the best product on the field and carry on a winning tradition. Maybe you can break Walt out of cryostasis to ask him for more money next time…or is Mickey spending it on whores?

by DocBooch on Oct 14, 2009 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lame post

Hauldog, please destroy this guy

We are the Los Angeles Angels of the late 2000s

by Higz on Oct 14, 2009 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

Someone should reearch that Disney doesn’t even own team any more…oh since about 6 years ago! But I guess that would ruin your Mickey joke….

Way to not know whats going on with the team that has the Yanks number…

Free Brandon Wood!

by gorams77 on Oct 14, 2009 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

My bad

Mr Arte Moreno owns the company…..who sold Infinity Broadcasting in 1998 for 8 billion dollars…yeah, he’s small market.

by DocBooch on Oct 14, 2009 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Best Player?

Classic. Dollar for dollar Morales has far exceeded Tex performance wise. The Angels brass had faith in him and did not overpay for that mercenary Tex.

As for why I do not want to see these comparisions? This is the 5th I have seen this week. They are lame and most of the DB’s from the Yankee site claim really cool facts like Jetah plays better defense than Aybar. It is laughable.

Play Wood already. Willits sucks.

by hauldog on Oct 14, 2009 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is idiotic
The Yankees have the highest payroll because of their determination to put the best product on the field and carry on a winning tradition.

Asshat you have the largest payroll because you are in the largest media market and are bankrolled by the $1 billion YES Network. Face the facts asshole you do not know them.

Play Wood already. Willits sucks.

by hauldog on Oct 14, 2009 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Facing the facts

The largest media market and the most revenue doesn’t preclude them from spending the most money on their players. As a matter of fact, the Yankees spend the most money in relation to their income.
                     Yearly Gross Revenue (Forbes) Payroll Pct
Yankees 327mil 201 61.5
Angels 200mil 113.79 56.5
Boston 263mil 121.7 46.2
Dodgers 224mil 100.4 44.8

The YES network was a venture by the Yankees and Steinbrenner to generate more revenue that low and behold Arte Moreno has done for your beloved Angels.

As I said, don’t be jealous. Yes, we are in the biggest market in the world, but don’t discount the work and dedication this franchise has done to get it to where it is now. (There is another team here that plays second fiddle)

We haven’t won in almost 9 years despite the highest payroll, so it means absolutely nothing. Teams will always play David to the Yanks Goliath and in recent years the Yanks have turned into a laughing stock with their early exits, midges, and not even making the post season despite the highest payroll ever.

The way I see it, being a Yankees fan since before I can remember (37 now), we are damned if we do and damned if we don’t. Every team guns for us and always gets up to play us. Regardless if it’s KC in June or Boston in April.

The Angels mojo has had me stupified for the past 10 years and I honestly think it’s Scoscia that breeds it. (which I’m sure you do too)

This series should prove to be worthy of a Classic when it’s all done.

by DocBooch on Oct 14, 2009 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You are making my point

A) The Angels spend the second highest percentage of their revenue on payroll. So clearly we are dedicated to winning.
B) Forbes only counts YES undervalued TV contract in their revenue. Not the countless other dollars at the teams disposal due to YES’ existence.
C) The Angels do not have the equivalent of a YES. WRONG again. Fox Sports West has a TV contract with the Angels, no ownership affiliation to speak of.

Play Wood already. Willits sucks.

by hauldog on Oct 14, 2009 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Disney doesn't own the team, Arte Moreno does.

Tex wanted to wear pinstripes, and while the money was important to him that wasn’t the only issue. His wife was homesick, missed her family, hated living in South OC, and he didn’t like the fact that no one recognized him at the grocery store. He later complained that in New York they do recognize him in the grocery store.

And he’s a carpool lane cheater; used the HOV to get to work on time. Boo fucking hoo, but I digress. He’s known as U-Haul here because he couldn’t wait to pack.

THIS… IS… ANAHEIM!!

by opiejeanne on Oct 14, 2009 11:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for stopping by Doc

feel free to come back for a visit after the series!

R.I.P. Nick, you are missed!

by P237 on Oct 14, 2009 10:42 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Win or Lose

I’ll be sure too.

by DocBooch on Oct 14, 2009 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You'll be sure also?

We are the Los Angeles Angels of the late 2000s

by Higz on Oct 14, 2009 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

no edit button…. I’ll be sure to.

by DocBooch on Oct 14, 2009 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The best you can do?

Nitpick my grammar and wrong owner? Come on, surely you guys can do better.

by DocBooch on Oct 14, 2009 11:06 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

You're a troll

And the only thing worse than a troll is a BORING troll, which you are. Your shit-talking isn’t creative, controversial, or humorous. Please piss off.

We are the Los Angeles Angels of the late 2000s

by Higz on Oct 14, 2009 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

LOL

so I believe the numbers show that the Yankees have a distinct advantage in the coming series.”

I’m sure you had not arrived at this conclusion before you embarked on your analysis.

by Ajax on Oct 14, 2009 11:21 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

well...

I did feel the Yankees had an advantage before looking at the numbers, but I don’t underestimate how good the Angels are. I know they are a very good team, and have beaten us so many times in the past. I would say that on paper, after having looked at the stats, the Yankees have a slight advantage, but they don’t play the game on paper, so anything could happen.

by Wraithpk on Oct 14, 2009 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's a good boy!....now you're using your reasoning....

…because those earlier comments and (quote end quote, ANALYSIS) you through out there were done by a HOMER rather than this more logical gentleman that stands before us now.

Onward! NO fear! NO Sox! NO way!
BUCK FOSTON!!!!

by Halofanatic on Oct 14, 2009 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

wtf is all this crap?

all i see are numbers and letters and you justifying why some yankee numbers are so low and why some angel numbers are so high and then calling it a push or your advantage.

btw, kendrick isn’t playing over his head. he’s just that good.

"it's mind-bottling."

by retrohalo on Oct 14, 2009 3:29 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Kendrick...

I have heard a lot about him, but, and I think you guys would have to agree with me on this, he’s been disappointing so far. He might have the talent to play at .400 wOBA, but I’m not sure I believe he’s actually arrived until he does it for an extended period of time, although he has been pretty good for the second half of this year.

by Wraithpk on Oct 15, 2009 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

i guess a full season would have to be played.

but his second half stats coincide much better with his minor league stats so i’m just gonna stick with the belief that second half kendrick is the real kendrick.

"it's mind-bottling."

by retrohalo on Oct 15, 2009 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

well...

there are definitely players that are AAAA players. Meaning, they dominate on the AAA level, but never make it in the majors. Looking at his trends, Kendrick shows periods of brilliance, but he’s yet to maintain it over the course of an entire season. He has half a season where he’s amazing, and half of the season he’s abysmal, so he his season average ends up being mediocre. He needs to learn consistency, once he does he’ll be great.

by Wraithpk on Oct 15, 2009 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He is a career .302 hitter in 1397 ABs.

Throwing him in the two hole this year screwed up his approach. Once he got back from the minors he was nails.

Play Wood already. Willits sucks.

by hauldog on Oct 15, 2009 7:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

do you think

they should keep him low in the lineup like the Yankees do with Cano?

by Wraithpk on Oct 16, 2009 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yes I do. Exactly

Situational hitting screwed up his bat.

Play Wood already. Willits sucks.

by hauldog on Oct 16, 2009 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agree

Howies in the stage where he needs to just focus on putting the bat on the ball. He is so naturally gifted that he can do this very well. The problem is when he is being asked to move runners or try to hit to a specific side where he starts trying to hard and chasing bad pitches

That'll only happen if that one prospect is the second coming of Christ and redemption for mankind can only be achieved by smacking many balls out of the yard.
-The Limey

by anaheim angels on Oct 16, 2009 10:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

what about 02 and 05?

why don’t you do a similar matchup for 02 and 05??

I am sure Yankees would dominate. So what this does it really mean?

Angels stats versus Sabathia:

Figgins 1.046 Ops
Abreu .844
Guerrerro .717
Rivera .523
Morales .788
Kendrick 1.442
Napoli 1.248
Izturiz 1.083

If I was an Yankee fan, I be more concern about an ace that could start 3 times and how he has had trouble with most of the Angels lineup.

by mowu888 on Oct 14, 2009 4:23 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

if i remember correctly...

the Yankees were favored in both of those series. But as we all know, the favored team doesn’t always win.

by Wraithpk on Oct 15, 2009 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

def in 02

all i remember was that experience was everything and the angels had like 2 games (from appier)

by Halos in DE on Oct 15, 2009 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

i am sure the yankees were favored in 05

because they were the yankees. (i mean how could they not be – note sarcasm)

by Halos in DE on Oct 15, 2009 5:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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