Yankees vs Angels, Game #3 Simulation

by Xeifrank on Oct 18, 2009 5:58 PM PDT

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Yankees and Angels using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 1130AM on Sunday)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
NYA	LAA	A.Pettitte vs J.Weaver	LAA	55.95%	50.41%	60%

Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... Vegas is making the Angels a slight favorite to win their first game of the series. My simulator isn't quite so sure and has this game as pretty much a coin toss. The folks over at AccuScore are going "all in" on the Angels on this one.

Top 50 Most Likely Scores
1	LAA 3-2
2	LAA 4-3
3	LAA 5-4
4	NYA 3-2
5	LAA 2-1
6	NYA 4-3
7	LAA 6-5
8	LAA 4-2
9	NYA 4-2
10	NYA 5-4
11	NYA 5-3
12	LAA 5-3
13	NYA 2-1
14	NYA 5-2
15	LAA 3-1
16	NYA 3-1
17	NYA 6-5
18	NYA 4-1
19	LAA 5-2
20	NYA 6-3
21	LAA 4-1
22	NYA 6-2
23	LAA 7-6
24	LAA 6-4
25	NYA 5-1
26	NYA 6-4
27	LAA 6-3
28	LAA 6-2
29	LAA 5-1
30	NYA 7-4
31	NYA 6-1
32	NYA 7-3
33	NYA 7-5
34	LAA 2-0
35	LAA 7-3
36	LAA 1-0
37	LAA 6-1
38	NYA 2-0
39	LAA 7-4
40	NYA 1-0
41	NYA 7-6
42	NYA 4-0
43	NYA 7-2
44	LAA 7-5
45	LAA 7-2
46	LAA 3-0
47	NYA 5-0
48	NYA 8-2
49	LAA 8-7
50	NYA 3-0

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
A.Pettitte	6.7	4.298	2.488	0.678	1.363	4.345
J.Weaver	6.8	5.223	2.306	0.974	1.280	4.541

Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup. The lineups I used are listed below. Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off. Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off. But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	D.Jeter	.3069	C.Figgins	.3121
2	J.Damon	.3136	B.Abreu	.3193
3	M.Teixeira	.3434	T.Hunter	.3322
4	A.Rodriguez	.3489	V.Guerrero	.3293
5	H.Matsui	.3181	K.Morales	.3292
6	J.Posada	.3206	J.Rivera	.3029
7	R.Cano	.2979	M.Izturis	.3012
8	N.Swisher	.3044	M.Napoli	.3237
9	M.Cabrera	.2743	E.Aybar	.2911

This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.

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Comments

Hmm… This is good.. or is it a Trap?? ;)

RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09

by vlad IS my man on Oct 18, 2009 6:00 PM PDT reply actions

Hopefully this is a good call...!

RIP Nick Adenhart.

"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5

by Clutch on Oct 18, 2009 6:04 PM PDT reply actions

You computer geeks are so adorable.

I've got nothing.

by bc56274 on Oct 18, 2009 6:18 PM PDT reply actions

Guessing Howie is in against the LHP

back to the drawing board

Willie Mays Aikens is FREeeeeeeee

by Angel Aviator on Oct 18, 2009 6:35 PM PDT reply actions

NO FREAKING WAY

it chose us to win lol

"Figgins' OBP is still over 40!" -Steve Physioc

by Figgi4life on Oct 18, 2009 7:20 PM PDT reply actions

Home field

makes sense. Even as a Yankee fan I predict and Angels win here (though I hope not)

by GMan83201 on Oct 18, 2009 8:33 PM PDT up reply actions

I think

he’s being a little sarcastic, because it’s picked against the Angels more than a few times this post-season (esp vs Yankees in NY). Really all that matters, is how it picks against Vegas.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 18, 2009 8:55 PM PDT up reply actions

yeah....

except not. This is the first game in which the favorite is the Angels.

"Figgins' OBP is still over 40!" -Steve Physioc

by Figgi4life on Oct 18, 2009 9:07 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm not worried.

by Xeifrank on Oct 18, 2009 9:18 PM PDT up reply actions

Last three Angels games in a row

Would’ve made money betting the Simulator vs Vegas. I don’t bet, but that’s what you’d measure against. Of course, five or six games is an extremely small sample size to determine success or failure of any prediction system.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 18, 2009 9:23 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't follow...

In all three Boston games your simulator picked the sox to win. How would betting the simulator have made money?

by Jietoh on Oct 19, 2009 8:49 AM PDT up reply actions

For example…

If Vegas says Red Sox are 60% favorites and my simulator says Red Sox are 56% favorites. That means you bet on the Angels, even though the simulator says the Red Sox are more likely to win. Hope that makes sense for you. :)
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 19, 2009 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions

So you're saying...

Bet on the Yanks in Game 3?…

by Jietoh on Oct 19, 2009 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions

I’m not saying to bet, but if you were using the simulator in a betting scheme, yes it would have you betting on the Yankees. AccuScore would have you betting on the Angels. The two games in NY, it would’ve had you betting on the Yankees. Game #3 against the Red Sox, it would’ve had you betting on the Angels. I don’t think I scraped the Vegas odds for Game #2 of the ALDS, and on Game #1 it would’ve been a “no bet”, as the spread between Vegas and the Simulator was negligible. Of course the bigger the spread, the bigger the bet, so just saying betting on Team A or Team B is a little misleading. Hope that helps.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 19, 2009 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions