Angels vs Yankees, Game #6 Simulation
by Xeifrank on Oct 24, 2009 9:40 AM PDT
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PrintI used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Angels and Yankees using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 9:30AM on Sunday)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob | AccuScore |
| LAA | NYA | J.Saunders vs A.Pettitte | NYA | 63.37% | 68.03% | 57% |
Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... The simulator doesn't like the Angels chances to much in Game #6. There is over an 8% gap in Angel win probability between the simulator and AccuScore with Vegas pretty much splitting the middle. A lot depends on which Joe Saunders shows up, the one who kept the Yankees off balance a week ago, or the one with the 5.17 FIP during the regular season. It will likely be something in between, but the Angels will need the "Good" Joe Saunders to push this series to a seventh game. Keep the Faith!!!
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Top 50 Most Likely Scores |
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| 1 | NYA 4-3 |
| 2 | NYA 3-2 |
| 3 | NYA 5-4 |
| 4 | NYA 2-1 |
| 5 | NYA 4-2 |
| 6 | NYA 6-5 |
| 7 | NYA 4-1 |
| 8 | NYA 3-1 |
| 9 | LAA 3-2 |
| 10 | NYA 5-3 |
| 11 | LAA 4-3 |
| 12 | NYA 5-2 |
| 13 | NYA 5-1 |
| 14 | LAA 5-4 |
| 15 | NYA 6-3 |
| 16 | NYA 6-2 |
| 17 | NYA 6-4 |
| 18 | NYA 6-1 |
| 19 | LAA 4-2 |
| 20 | LAA 2-1 |
| 21 | NYA 7-3 |
| 22 | NYA 4-0 |
| 23 | NYA 7-2 |
| 24 | NYA 7-6 |
| 25 | LAA 5-3 |
| 26 | NYA 3-0 |
| 27 | NYA 5-0 |
| 28 | LAA 6-5 |
| 29 | NYA 7-1 |
| 30 | NYA 2-0 |
| 31 | NYA 7-4 |
| 32 | NYA 1-0 |
| 33 | LAA 5-2 |
| 34 | LAA 6-4 |
| 35 | NYA 8-3 |
| 36 | NYA 7-5 |
| 37 | NYA 6-0 |
| 38 | NYA 8-2 |
| 39 | LAA 6-3 |
| 40 | LAA 3-1 |
| 41 | NYA 8-1 |
| 42 | NYA 9-2 |
| 43 | LAA 7-6 |
| 44 | LAA 7-4 |
| 45 | LAA 4-1 |
| 46 | NYA 7-0 |
| 47 | NYA 8-7 |
| 48 | NYA 8-5 |
| 49 | LAA 6-2 |
| 50 | LAA 7-5 |
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Game Pitching Results |
||||||
| Pitcher | IP | SO | BB | HR | WHIP | FIP |
| J.Saunders | 6.4 | 3.088 | 2.729 | 1.383 | 1.467 | 6.331 |
| A.Pettitte | 7.2 | 4.868 | 2.547 | 0.674 | 1.193 | 4.132 |
Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup. The lineups I used are listed below. Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off. Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off. But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.
| Simulation Lineups | ||||
| Name | wOBA | Name | wOBA | |
| 1 | C.Figgins | .2939 | D.Jeter | .3411 |
| 2 | B.Abreu | .3077 | J.Damon | .3378 |
| 3 | T.Hunter | .3189 | M.Teixeira | .4128 |
| 4 | V.Guerrero | .3193 | A.Rodriguez | .4014 |
| 5 | K.Morales | .3216 | J.Posada | .3752 |
| 6 | H.Kendrick | .2741 | H.Matsui | .3511 |
| 7 | J.Rivera | .2908 | R.Cano | .3309 |
| 8 | J.Mathis | .2482 | N.Swisher | .3600 |
| 9 | E.Aybar | .2729 | M.Cabrera | .2946 |
This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.
47 comments
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Comments
As much as we bitch about how the Yankees are such favorites in this matchup
If the Yankees happen to win Game 6 (goodness I hope not) then they would have won 66% of the games… Their win probability. Interesting…
Doesn't look good here....
Yankees win in 9 out of top 10 most likely scores.
I’m interested to know though: does the simulator take into account probabilities based upon ongoing likelihoods. What I mean is that the Angles lost BOTH Games 1 and 2 in New York. With everything else being even, it would seem that the probability of them winning the next time would be greater. Obviously, the starting pitching etc plays a big role, but if we considered Pettitte and Saunders to be roughly EVEN then it would seem to me that the Angles have a BETTER CHANCED to win just because they lost the first two in NYC. If you flip a coin two times and it comes up HEADS, don’t the odds go up that it will be TAILS on the third flip? I know this is an oversimplification, but just wondering if the simulator sees each game as a totally isolated even, or does it factor in previous series results and probability? Thanks.
Statistics 101
No matter how many times you flip a coin and get heads, the odds are still 50/50 that you get heads the next time. The previous events have no effect on the likelihood of the next event.
Okay, I vaguely remember that now.
Statistics was never my best subject — that why I asked.
Xei didn’t answer my question though. Does the simulator take data from the whole series, just the regular season or both?
Have any of these simulation projections gone against the home team?
sort of a heavy handed factor don’t ya think?
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
im feeling an Angel blowout...
7-1 Angels or something.
Do it for Nick '09
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Oct 24, 2009 10:44 AM PDT reply actions
Simulator seems to high
Vegas seems the more accurate figure, with a lefty on the mound in New York and the Angels good performance against lefty’s I would say somewhere around 60/40 is correct.
Vegas Lines
The lines I’ve seen this morning have the Yankees (-185) or (-180) on the moneyline. That means they are seen as pretty heavy favorites. A line of (-140) or (-150) would be moderately favored whereas (-125) etc and down is only very slightly favored. Vegas also thinks this will be a high scoring game, with bodog having the line at OVER 9 (-125), which in contrast to a moneyline is fairly high/good odds that the game will go over that number.
I used to live in Vegas
And you have to account for the vig. What money line does bodog use, 10 cent, 20 cent? So if they use a 20 cent line with the favorite -180 and the dog 160 the middle is of course 170. So how do you take 170 and figure win probability? To do it right is complicated but I will say this – The Greek sports book (they are sharp) has the line -176/166. Doing the probability calculation based off this line has the Yankees at 62.9% favorite.
The zero-vig implied probabilities would be:
Angels 100/(100+166)=37.59%
Yankees 176/(100+176)=63.76%
The total of the implied zero-vig probabilities (also known as the bookie’s overround) is 37.59% + 63.76% = 101.35%.
This means that the implied line set probability for the Angels is 37.59%/101.35% = 37.1% and Yankees is 63.76%/101.35% = 62.9%.
One more thing
A bookies job is to balance action on both sides. The Yankees will always get more money than the Angels so they have to move the line up to keep money coming in on the Angels. My rough guess is they adjusted the line 10 cents to account for this, so a true (balanced) line would be -166/+156. This would bump the win percentage down to around 61.75% – which is about as unbiased and accurate as one can get.
Sorry, bodog isn't actually "vegas", they're offshore
but most of the online books get their lines directly from Vegas.
Do you use them?
I used to, I actually like their poker format, but their book is awful.
I've got nothing.
They were VERY slow on a couple of payouts
So I stopped using them. I do have a future bet on the ANGELS to win the AL Pennant with them. They’re not my primary book though.
The Greek
I like the variety of props, they put their lines up earlier than most (usually the night before game) and like their Jamaican staff. I enjoy their accents, especially the women.
Yep, that's a good book. I haven't played with them in a long time, but they were always top notch.
My only complaint was they had bad baseball lines, like $.20.
I've got nothing.
Side Salad
Would be curious to see how much difference it makes with Naps in there.
Soth has to know he is a top 5 hitter versus southpaws.
Bet you took the Mariners in 01 too
RIP #34
by linkbruin on Oct 24, 2009 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I also have Adenhart winning game two.
by .Taylor on Oct 24, 2009 10:04 PM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
Good Fucking Bye
It could happen! Let's do this for Nick Adenhart, Courtney Stewart, and Henry Pearson.
by AlanFalcon on Oct 24, 2009 11:18 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Who f *rec'd* this fool?
RIP Nick Adenhart.
"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5
by Clutch on Oct 25, 2009 2:35 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Probably someone from Lookout Landing.
In addition to writing this crap here, he posted a link back to it on LL to… What? Brag?
It could happen! Let's do this for Nick Adenhart, Courtney Stewart, and Henry Pearson.
by AlanFalcon on Oct 25, 2009 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
And they're actually saying it's cool!
Their main complaint about his comment is that it “will bring HH trolls here.”
Here I thought LL had some modicum of class and decency…guess not!
RIP Nick Adenhart.
"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5
not very fucking funny
asshole
I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
by Moondoggy on Oct 25, 2009 5:22 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
It gets better
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2009/10/25/1100369/10-25-open-alcs-thread#comments
"When they signed Fukudome, I knew they were trying to get me fired". - Ron Santo, January, 2008
Flag this guy's ass
I did. Motherfucking pinhead.
"When they signed Fukudome, I knew they were trying to get me fired". - Ron Santo, January, 2008
Meet us at Spring Training
"When they signed Fukudome, I knew they were trying to get me fired". - Ron Santo, January, 2008
wow. i dont like those odds.
I havent looked at these throughout the playoffs… i know the one i saw prior was almost dead on, giving the angels the win, with the 3rd most likely score over the yankees…
have the other simulations been more or less right?
either way doesnt matter, cuz i know the angels are gonna prove all the experts and machines wrong!
In Kobe we trust!
Sim Part 2
Re-ran the sim with what were the announced lineups yesterday. Not much of a change. AccuScore did drop the Yankees win probability from 60% down to 57%. Based on what, I’m not sure. Vegas moved a fraction or two in the Yankees direction. The sim moved a fraction in the Angels direction, but not enough to be statistically significant from the previous sim.
vr, Xei
So after all that who wins?
"When they signed Fukudome, I knew they were trying to get me fired". - Ron Santo, January, 2008
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