2010 Bill James Player Projections

Now that the Angels off-season is officially here, it's time to start the speculation of player moves the team may make prior to the start of the 2010 season.  To help fuel the discussion on who should stay and who should go, below are the 2010 player projections courtesy of the 2010 Bill James Handbook (which will be published on or before November 1st).  The Bill James projections have been around for over 20 years, and the handbook has proven to be a valuable addition to a fan's bookshelf for either quick reference or deep analysis.

Angel players expected to return in 2010:

The above nine players are under contract with the Angels for 2010, and with the exception of Matthews, will most likely be in their opening day line up.  As you will notice, the James projections show a slight increase in run production in spite of a decrease in batting average and on base percentage.  It would have been interesting to see what the projected production of Brandon Wood would have been, but providing numbers for players with little major league experience is hard to predict.

A couple things stand out;  Howie Kendrick with 34 doubles in only 124 games.  This would be 45 doubles if he played an entire season.  Yet, he's projected to add just one base on balls in 93 more at bats.  Two of the youngest Angels are projected to show a slight decline from 2009.  Kendry Morales is projected to decline in his power output, while Erick Aybar's breakout season looks to also fade in 2010.

Angel Free Agents:

What's interesting with these three players is they fall into 3 different categories; declining, sustaining, and improving.  The player projections for Guerrero were pretty generous, and are relying on his improved health and increasing playing time, but what really surprises me is his increase in base-on-balls with a much smaller ratio of strikeouts.  Although his BB% in 2009 was the lowest of his career (4.7%), the projections have him returning to his career level of 8.3%. 

Figgins also looks like he'll revert to his career numbers in BB%, resulting in a significant drop in OBP (but still higher than his career OBP of .363).  Turning 32 in January, re-signing Figgins might not be the right move for the Halos, especially if a large salary increase and declining numbers are considered.

Bobby Abreu looks like he's aging well.  His numbers are projected to remain about the same as in 2009, which were pretty much in line with his career number...with the exception in slugging percentage.

Notable Free Agents - 2010 Projected

Is Tejada really 36?  Could Nick Johnson stay healthy two seasons in a row (and can his limited power return)?  How much will Nady cost and will he be healthy?  Break the bank for Holliday?

Obviously, these numbers aren't written in stone.  They're just educated guesses at what to expect from these players, but they do provide a good base to build discussion on.