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2010 Bill James Player Projections

Los Angeles Angels manager Mike Scioscia has a busy off season in store for him.

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

Los Angeles Angels manager Mike Scioscia has a busy off season in store for him.

Now that the Angels off-season is officially here, it's time to start the speculation of player moves the team may make prior to the start of the 2010 season.  To help fuel the discussion on who should stay and who should go, below are the 2010 player projections courtesy of the 2010 Bill James Handbook (which will be published on or before November 1st).  The Bill James projections have been around for over 20 years, and the handbook has proven to be a valuable addition to a fan's bookshelf for either quick reference or deep analysis.

Star-divide

Angel players expected to return in 2010:

Pos

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
C Mike Napoli 2009-Actual 114 382 60 104 22 1 20 56 3 3 40 103 .272 .350 .492 .842


2010-Projected 115 395 68 105 21 1 24 69 5 3 54 103 .266 .361 .506 .868
1B Kendry Morales# 2009-Actual 152 566 86 173 43 2 34 108 3 7 46 117 .306 .355 .569 .924


2010-Projected 153 572 80 168 38 1 29 98 2 3 40 97 .294 .341 .516 .857
2B Howie Kendrick 2009-Actual 105 374 61 109 21 3 10 61 11 4 20 71 .291 .334 .444 .778


2010-Projected 124 467 70 144 34 3 11 68 14 6 21 76 .308 .343 .465 .808
SS Erick Aybar# 2009-Actual 137 504 70 157 23 9 5 58 14 7 30 54 .312 .353 .423 .776


2010-Projected 139 520 75 151 25 6 6 57 18 9 28 55 .290 .330 .396 .726
LF Juan Rivera 2009-Actual 138 529 72 152 24 1 25 88 0 1 36 57 .287 .332 .478 .810


2010-Projected 138 529 69 149 30 0 23 87 0 0 36 62 .282 .329 .469 .797
CF Torii Hunter 2009-Actual 119 451 74 135 26 1 22 90 18 4 47 92 .299 .366 .508 .873


2010-Projected 146 556 82 151 33 1 24 92 16 7 48 113 .272 .335 .464 .799
MI Maicer Izturis# 2009-Actual 114 387 74 116 22 3 8 65 13 5 35 41 .300 .359 .434 .794


2010-Projected 124 446 70 126 25 3 6 56 14 6 43 48 .283 .348 .392 .741
OF Gary Matthews# 2009-Actual 103 316 44 79 19 2 4 50 4 1 40 74 .250 .336 .361 .697


2010-Projected 124 403 55 101 23 2 9 48 6 3 44 91 .251 .327 .385 .712
C Jeff Mathis 2009-Actual 84 237 26 50 8 0 5 28 2 3 22 73 .211 .288 .308 .596


2010-Projected 85 238 30 52 12 1 6 29 2 1 21 61 .218 .287 .353 .640


2009 - Total
3746 567 1075 208 22 133 604 68 35 316 682 .287




2010 - Total
4126 599 1147 241 18 138 604 77 38 335 706 .278


 

The above nine players are under contract with the Angels for 2010, and with the exception of Matthews, will most likely be in their opening day line up.  As you will notice, the James projections show a slight increase in run production in spite of a decrease in batting average and on base percentage.  It would have been interesting to see what the projected production of Brandon Wood would have been, but providing numbers for players with little major league experience is hard to predict.

A couple things stand out;  Howie Kendrick with 34 doubles in only 124 games.  This would be 45 doubles if he played an entire season.  Yet, he's projected to add just one base on balls in 93 more at bats.  Two of the youngest Angels are projected to show a slight decline from 2009.  Kendry Morales is projected to decline in his power output, while Erick Aybar's breakout season looks to also fade in 2010.

Angel Free Agents:




G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
3B Chone Figgins# 2009-Actual 158 615 114 183 30 7 5 54 42 17 101 114 .298 .395 .393 .789


2010-Projected 154 578 97 165 25 5 5 51 37 15 76 105 .285 .369 .372 .741
RF Bobby Abreu* 2009-Actual 152 563 96 165 29 3 15 103 30 8 94 113 .293 .390 .435 .825


2010-Projected 157 606 103 173 38 2 18 101 25 9 101 127 .285 .389 .444 .833
DH Vladimir Guerrero 2009-Actual 100 383 59 113 16 1 15 50 2 1 19 56 .295 .334 .460 .794


2010-Projected 135 508 77 155 29 1 24 88 5 3 46 70 .305 .369 .508 .876

 

What's interesting with these three players is they fall into 3 different categories; declining, sustaining, and improving.  The player projections for Guerrero were pretty generous, and are relying on his improved health and increasing playing time, but what really surprises me is his increase in base-on-balls with a much smaller ratio of strikeouts.  Although his BB% in 2009 was the lowest of his career (4.7%), the projections have him returning to his career level of 8.3%. 

Figgins also looks like he'll revert to his career numbers in BB%, resulting in a significant drop in OBP (but still higher than his career OBP of .363).  Turning 32 in January, re-signing Figgins might not be the right move for the Halos, especially if a large salary increase and declining numbers are considered.

Bobby Abreu looks like he's aging well.  His numbers are projected to remain about the same as in 2009, which were pretty much in line with his career number...with the exception in slugging percentage.

Notable Free Agents - 2010 Projected

Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
Matt Holliday 30 155 605 105 191 43 3 27 109 14 6 66 112 .316 .391 .531 .922
Jason Bay 31 153 560 99 150 32 2 32 103 11 4 88 159 .268 .374 .504 .878
Nick Johnson 31 124 426 67 118 29 1 12 62 2 2 91 83 .277 .414 .434 .849
Adam LaRoche 30 152 571 79 155 42 1 26 91 1 1 79 91 .271 .348 .485 .833
Adrian Beltre 31 131 483 61 130 29 1 17 68 10 4 32 82 .269 .321 .439 .760
Miguel Tejada 36 157 622 84 186 37 1 18 91 4 3 32 62 .299 .342 .449 .791
Rick Ankiel 30 118 375 53 95 19 1 18 59 3 2 29 87 .253 .310 .453 .764
Xavier Nady 31 124 424 54 121 25 1 17 65 2 1 28 85 .285 .337 .469 .806

 

Is Tejada really 36?  Could Nick Johnson stay healthy two seasons in a row (and can his limited power return)?  How much will Nady cost and will he be healthy?  Break the bank for Holliday?

Obviously, these numbers aren't written in stone.  They're just educated guesses at what to expect from these players, but they do provide a good base to build discussion on.

0 recs  |  Comment 42 comments |

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Holliday and Bay (in that order)

Adding either would bolster offense and defense, and allow Rivera to bat DH. I also think Izturis and Kendrick should be playing every day. Why not put Howie at 3rd base?

by bearnut on Oct 28, 2009 8:21 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Howie at 3rd?

I know he played at 1st base, but has he played at 3rd base?

by Angelfan1983 on Oct 28, 2009 8:42 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bay would bolster offense, not so much on defense.

Bay’s UZR last year was -13.9 while Rivera posted a +13.6. And I don’t think Howie has a strong enough arm to play 3rd base.

Nick would be proud.

by halofan4life on Oct 28, 2009 8:43 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

why is everyone down on Rivera's defense?

The man has a great arm for LF. How many times has his arm limited doubles to long singles, or thrown people out?

It might not be as many as I remember, but it seems to me he was well respected this year for good presence and defense.

www.13stoploss.com

by feNOMINAL on Oct 28, 2009 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

agreed

However, I think people are still bitter with Rivera on that play in the 9th inning at Fenway on September 16th, where the ball dropped in front of him.

by Angelfan1983 on Oct 28, 2009 9:52 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rivera is a bad version of an Aging G.A.

When I'm not at the stadium, I'd rather be watching my Halos back in Costa Rica!

by Dono Romantico on Oct 28, 2009 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rivera's arm is fine...

…the only defensive liability I see with him is he’s a slow runner.

by sothball on Oct 28, 2009 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

again. slow running to balls that should be caught or running to a base

is NO BUENO

When I'm not at the stadium, I'd rather be watching my Halos back in Costa Rica!

by Dono Romantico on Oct 28, 2009 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If you believe in such things...

3rd among left-fielders

I see red people

by The Limey on Oct 28, 2009 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

stats?!

WTF are those???

Thank you, Nick Adenhart. You will always be remembered. #34

by howiestheman on Oct 30, 2009 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Stats are a conglomerate of numbers that SUPPOSED to measure a players value.

Unfortunately in Rivera’s case, no one seems to care.

Nick would be proud.

by halofan4life on Oct 31, 2009 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

um ok

but most people view Rivera as superior defensively to both those guys.

by dmhead on Oct 28, 2009 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

There is this guy you might have heard of called...

BRANDON WOOD. (hes out of options…so he either makes the 25 man roster or hits the waiver wire.)

Do it for Nick '09

by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Oct 28, 2009 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wanna see Wood fulltime next season and I want to see him make Sosh look bad for not

playing him fulltime sooner.

PLEASE ALLOW US TO SEE WHAT THIS KID CAN DO FOR A FULL SEASON !

When I'm not at the stadium, I'd rather be watching my Halos back in Costa Rica!

by Dono Romantico on Oct 28, 2009 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd like to see what 2009's projections were

and match them up with 2009’s actuals.

by ryanfea on Oct 28, 2009 8:40 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

# Halo Heaven Fantasy Champ 2008 #

by UK Halo on Oct 28, 2009 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

+2

Nick, you will always be an Angel. And you will be missed.

by anaheimisnotla on Oct 28, 2009 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

+3

THIS… IS… ANAHEIM!!

by opiejeanne on Oct 28, 2009 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

+4

Check out my article about the Dodger Dugout Club.

by alcor805 on Oct 30, 2009 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like that picture of Soth.

Looks like a mafia boss getting ready to put out a contract on someone.

God needed a starter. RIP #34

by 3rd Echelon on Oct 28, 2009 9:04 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Hahaha

I was just about to type that.

Great minds think alike

The only magic number now is #34

by Teixeira Who? on Oct 28, 2009 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

time to let

woods have a shot at 3rd, stick with rivera, resign Vlad at a discount rate or get holiday to rotate dh and OF. Either resign our ace or get one along with some pen help and team is set IMO.

Confidence breeds success, self-doubt breeds failure

by Blaze453 on Oct 28, 2009 10:25 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

simply for calling Wood “Woods.” Comedy.

I love this team.

by Downing Rules on Oct 29, 2009 12:47 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Morales and Aybar's numbers decrease slightly?

I actually agree. I have a feeling after Morales’ huge year that teams are gonna really study his at-bats and figure out how to pitch to him.

I also imagine that Aybar’s offensive numbers might dip a bit. Although, I expect that regardless if Figgins leaves or not, that the Angels start grooming him as a leadoff hitter and that his BB increase along with his SB and OBP.

Do it for Nick '09

by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Oct 28, 2009 11:11 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

If Abreu leaves...

Aybar’s K’s increase and BB’s decrease. Just my hunch.

I love this team.

by Downing Rules on Oct 29, 2009 12:48 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If Rivera went Away to Make room for one of our top prospects or any other veteran upgrade

I don’t think anyone will really care that much. For all of his offensive talents and his percieved lackadasical efforts defensively.

When I'm not at the stadium, I'd rather be watching my Halos back in Costa Rica!

by Dono Romantico on Oct 28, 2009 11:43 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

....this guy is a "stick in the mud" without anymore perceived increases in offensive and defensive

productivity. In other words: This is as good as it’s gonna get for Juan. Now let’s try something new PLEASE ! ! !

When I'm not at the stadium, I'd rather be watching my Halos back in Costa Rica!

by Dono Romantico on Oct 28, 2009 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Besides, it will help Arte market and sell a few new jerseys.

When I'm not at the stadium, I'd rather be watching my Halos back in Costa Rica!

by Dono Romantico on Oct 28, 2009 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I may be wrong here, but...

…isn’t Mark DeRosa a free agent this year? I could have sworn his contract was up…and the guy would be a perfect fit here if Figgy were to be shown the door. Anyone got details on this?

No one, and I mean, no one comes into our house and pushes us around.

by It's A Trap! on Oct 28, 2009 1:17 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Wrist surgery

Play Wood already. Willits sucks.

by hauldog on Oct 28, 2009 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

i say..

do whatever it takes to resign lackey. keep vlad, i think he’l bounce back next year. as much as i liked abreu and figgy this past season, i wouldnt mind if they left. aybar can be a good replacement as the leadoff batter.
trade GMJ, i cant stand him.
and maybe try and sign bay or holliday.
if not, we can always wait to see who’s available at the trade deadline.
wood at 3b, kendrick will finaly hav the season hes capable of. and a deep rotation with a better developed bullpen. we should be fine come next year.

by Buselben on Oct 28, 2009 1:49 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

HOW TO GET TO THE W.S. IN 2010 !!!!!!!!

LET BOBBY ABREU WALK.

AFTER A COMPLETE SEASON IN 2007 WITH THE PHILLIES AND GOING TO THE SKANKS THE PHILS WIN THE W.S. THE FOLLOWING SEASON.
AFTER A COMPLETE SEASON WITH THE 2008 SKANKS LOOK WHO’S IN THE W.S. THIS YEAR.

When I'm not at the stadium, I'd rather be watching my Halos back in Costa Rica!

by Dono Romantico on Oct 28, 2009 4:59 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Nope

Abreu was traded to the Yankees in 2006.

The HK-47 hitting droid is the finest line drive machine ever built

by RallyMonkey5 on Oct 29, 2009 6:18 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

you are the 2nd person who did NOT read my post correctly

Try again to rally your brain Monkey.

When I'm not at the stadium, I'd rather be watching my Halos back in Costa Rica!

by Dono Romantico on Oct 29, 2009 7:52 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

and you STILL aren't getting it

Or you have issues making a point. You said:

 “AFTER A COMPLETE SEASON IN 2007 WITH THE PHILLIES AND GOING TO THE SKANKS THE PHILS WIN THE W.S. THE FOLLOWING SEASON.”

That looks an awful like you’re saying he played for the Phillies in ’07. He was traded away from Philly in ’06, which would make his last COMPLETE season there ’05. Comprende, amigo?

by dmhead on Oct 30, 2009 7:45 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

by the way, today I was teaching my class and talking about the Angels

a student asked me after class, “so you are an Angels’ fan, let me ask you, has Garrett Anderson always been lazy.” I responded, “oh you must be a Braves’ fan” and immediately thought of the Halos Heaven community.

Angels in 09!

by tanana40 on Oct 28, 2009 5:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hahahahahaha

When I'm not at the stadium, I'd rather be watching my Halos back in Costa Rica!

by Dono Romantico on Oct 29, 2009 7:54 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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