2010 Bill James Player Projections

Now that the Angels off-season is officially here, it's time to start the speculation of player moves the team may make prior to the start of the 2010 season.  To help fuel the discussion on who should stay and who should go, below are the 2010 player projections courtesy of the 2010 Bill James Handbook (which will be published on or before November 1st).  The Bill James projections have been around for over 20 years, and the handbook has proven to be a valuable addition to a fan's bookshelf for either quick reference or deep analysis.

Angel players expected to return in 2010:

Pos

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
C Mike Napoli 2009-Actual 114 382 60 104 22 1 20 56 3 3 40 103 .272 .350 .492 .842


2010-Projected 115 395 68 105 21 1 24 69 5 3 54 103 .266 .361 .506 .868
1B Kendry Morales# 2009-Actual 152 566 86 173 43 2 34 108 3 7 46 117 .306 .355 .569 .924


2010-Projected 153 572 80 168 38 1 29 98 2 3 40 97 .294 .341 .516 .857
2B Howie Kendrick 2009-Actual 105 374 61 109 21 3 10 61 11 4 20 71 .291 .334 .444 .778


2010-Projected 124 467 70 144 34 3 11 68 14 6 21 76 .308 .343 .465 .808
SS Erick Aybar# 2009-Actual 137 504 70 157 23 9 5 58 14 7 30 54 .312 .353 .423 .776


2010-Projected 139 520 75 151 25 6 6 57 18 9 28 55 .290 .330 .396 .726
LF Juan Rivera 2009-Actual 138 529 72 152 24 1 25 88 0 1 36 57 .287 .332 .478 .810


2010-Projected 138 529 69 149 30 0 23 87 0 0 36 62 .282 .329 .469 .797
CF Torii Hunter 2009-Actual 119 451 74 135 26 1 22 90 18 4 47 92 .299 .366 .508 .873


2010-Projected 146 556 82 151 33 1 24 92 16 7 48 113 .272 .335 .464 .799
MI Maicer Izturis# 2009-Actual 114 387 74 116 22 3 8 65 13 5 35 41 .300 .359 .434 .794


2010-Projected 124 446 70 126 25 3 6 56 14 6 43 48 .283 .348 .392 .741
OF Gary Matthews# 2009-Actual 103 316 44 79 19 2 4 50 4 1 40 74 .250 .336 .361 .697


2010-Projected 124 403 55 101 23 2 9 48 6 3 44 91 .251 .327 .385 .712
C Jeff Mathis 2009-Actual 84 237 26 50 8 0 5 28 2 3 22 73 .211 .288 .308 .596


2010-Projected 85 238 30 52 12 1 6 29 2 1 21 61 .218 .287 .353 .640


2009 - Total
3746 567 1075 208 22 133 604 68 35 316 682 .287




2010 - Total
4126 599 1147 241 18 138 604 77 38 335 706 .278


 

The above nine players are under contract with the Angels for 2010, and with the exception of Matthews, will most likely be in their opening day line up.  As you will notice, the James projections show a slight increase in run production in spite of a decrease in batting average and on base percentage.  It would have been interesting to see what the projected production of Brandon Wood would have been, but providing numbers for players with little major league experience is hard to predict.

A couple things stand out;  Howie Kendrick with 34 doubles in only 124 games.  This would be 45 doubles if he played an entire season.  Yet, he's projected to add just one base on balls in 93 more at bats.  Two of the youngest Angels are projected to show a slight decline from 2009.  Kendry Morales is projected to decline in his power output, while Erick Aybar's breakout season looks to also fade in 2010.

Angel Free Agents:




G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
3B Chone Figgins# 2009-Actual 158 615 114 183 30 7 5 54 42 17 101 114 .298 .395 .393 .789


2010-Projected 154 578 97 165 25 5 5 51 37 15 76 105 .285 .369 .372 .741
RF Bobby Abreu* 2009-Actual 152 563 96 165 29 3 15 103 30 8 94 113 .293 .390 .435 .825


2010-Projected 157 606 103 173 38 2 18 101 25 9 101 127 .285 .389 .444 .833
DH Vladimir Guerrero 2009-Actual 100 383 59 113 16 1 15 50 2 1 19 56 .295 .334 .460 .794


2010-Projected 135 508 77 155 29 1 24 88 5 3 46 70 .305 .369 .508 .876

 

What's interesting with these three players is they fall into 3 different categories; declining, sustaining, and improving.  The player projections for Guerrero were pretty generous, and are relying on his improved health and increasing playing time, but what really surprises me is his increase in base-on-balls with a much smaller ratio of strikeouts.  Although his BB% in 2009 was the lowest of his career (4.7%), the projections have him returning to his career level of 8.3%. 

Figgins also looks like he'll revert to his career numbers in BB%, resulting in a significant drop in OBP (but still higher than his career OBP of .363).  Turning 32 in January, re-signing Figgins might not be the right move for the Halos, especially if a large salary increase and declining numbers are considered.

Bobby Abreu looks like he's aging well.  His numbers are projected to remain about the same as in 2009, which were pretty much in line with his career number...with the exception in slugging percentage.

Notable Free Agents - 2010 Projected

Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
Matt Holliday 30 155 605 105 191 43 3 27 109 14 6 66 112 .316 .391 .531 .922
Jason Bay 31 153 560 99 150 32 2 32 103 11 4 88 159 .268 .374 .504 .878
Nick Johnson 31 124 426 67 118 29 1 12 62 2 2 91 83 .277 .414 .434 .849
Adam LaRoche 30 152 571 79 155 42 1 26 91 1 1 79 91 .271 .348 .485 .833
Adrian Beltre 31 131 483 61 130 29 1 17 68 10 4 32 82 .269 .321 .439 .760
Miguel Tejada 36 157 622 84 186 37 1 18 91 4 3 32 62 .299 .342 .449 .791
Rick Ankiel 30 118 375 53 95 19 1 18 59 3 2 29 87 .253 .310 .453 .764
Xavier Nady 31 124 424 54 121 25 1 17 65 2 1 28 85 .285 .337 .469 .806

 

Is Tejada really 36?  Could Nick Johnson stay healthy two seasons in a row (and can his limited power return)?  How much will Nady cost and will he be healthy?  Break the bank for Holliday?

Obviously, these numbers aren't written in stone.  They're just educated guesses at what to expect from these players, but they do provide a good base to build discussion on.

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