My opinion of what the Angels should do this off-season
by Trott on Oct 29, 2009 11:58 AM PDT
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Print<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> Normal 0 0 1 940 5358 44 10 6580 11.1282 </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> 0 0 0 </xml><![endif]--> My opinion of what the Angels should do this off-season:
1) Offer arbitration to all of our free agents. It goes without being said that we should get draft picks for any departing free agent. The biggest risk is Guerrero accepting arbitration and getting paid way more than he deserves. But I still think he will be considered a type A free agent so the risk is worth it, especially for only one year.
2) Let Figgins depart via free agency.
A) It is time for the "give Brandon Wood a chance" era. He is out of options (meaning 25 man roster or waivers). If we were going to trade him we should of done it when he had value. I say we let him play a half to ¾ of season and see what he can do. You never know until we give him a chance. He could be good or he could flame out. If he fails we can always fill third with Izzy. Who would not be much of a downgrade from Figgins (especially in an average Figgins year)
Izzy: .283/.346/.398/69/18 (BA/OBP/SLG/Avg RBI over 162 gm/SB over 162 gm)*
Figgins: .291/.363/.388/59/48 - counting his career year.
*Izzy's stats do not include the half-year in Montreal
B) Figgins has killed us in the playoffs. Figgins career stats in the playoffs are .172/.223/.246 (BA/OBP/SLG). In 135 playoff plate appearances Figgins has scored a total of 13 runs and has 6 RBI's. He is not scoring or driving them in. The only good thing that Figgins has done in the playoffs is steal bases (35 steals) when on base.
C) Figgins had a career year on the eve of free agency. Don't expect a repeat performance.
3) Sign an outfielder.
A) Bobby Abreu has done wonders for this team in terms attitude, chemistry, and teaching the younger guys about hitting. (I think his influence far exceeds that of Mickey Hatcher and would be especially helpful to guys like Wood, Aybar, Morales, and Kendrick). I also think it is possible to get him with a relatively short-term contract (two years with an option for a third).
B) I think Guerrero really wants to stay with the Angels. I think it will be possible to sign him for a short-term deal (one to two years) for a respectable amount of money (5 to 8 million/yr). He just needs to understand that he may not be batting in the heart of the order and that he will not be playing in the outfield.
C) We should not go after Jason Bay or Matt Holliday. Holliday could not hit in the AL and Bay is hitting in Boston. It would be a mistake to sign an outfielder on the wrong side of 30 for a long-term deal. We have some pretty good prospects in the minors (Peter Bourjos in AA, and Trout/Grechuck probably in low A at the start of next season). Of course none of these players are guaranteed to make it to the Majors let alone be a star. But with another draft coming up where I envision at least a few picks in the higher rounds than previous years, lets not create a log jam in the outfield with aging, overpriced, underperforming players. If none of our young guys pan out then there will always be a FA outfielder in the market. There will be a time in the next year or two where we will need the money to lock up our young infielders to long-term deals anyways.
4) Trade GMJ for anything. I mean I would even take a bag of balls and a case of sunflower seeds (Just not Milton Bradley). If the Ninja can do it without eating his whole salary the trade will instantly be a success.
5) Sign John Lackey unless he wants more than a $100 mil.
A) If the Angels don't make a serious run at Lackey I think it will be because they know more about his medical issues that they have reported during the season.
B) As the saying goes you can never have too much pitching. A rotation of Lackey, Weaver, Saunders, Kazmir, Santana looks really nice on paper, doesn't it. The only problem with this staff is the lack of a true #1 starter. You know the type that can completely shut down good team when the time matters (during the season and playoffs). Lackey is very good, but he just falls short of the Santana/Haliday/(I hate to say it) Sabathia class. But then again he should not get that kind of money either. I think it is possible to get him for a little more that Burnett money.
C) We can't afford not to have Lackey. A rotation of Weaver, Saunders, Kazmir, Santana, plus unproven rookie pitcher does not sound good at all. One injury, which would most likely occur to someone on the staff, could easily prevent us from winning the AL west let alone making another serious run in the playoffs. Our rookies (Bell/O'Sullivan/Walden/Reckling/Ortega) all need at least one more year in the minors. And it might be a good idea to introduce some of them to the majors by having them pitch relief in the second half of the season if they progress well enough.
6) Make a serious run at Aroldis Chapman. Just because NY and Boston are chasing him does not mean he is unavailable to us. We are a big market team (I know some will hate to admit that) that may not have the monetary advantage that Boston or NY has, but we have a few social factors that can be pretty persuasive. We have a Cuban player in the majors who can help mentor him. We have a strong Latin presence within the clubhouse, management, and community. We have good weather. After he meets with the northeastern teams have him come on down to warm So Cal and eat cabrito made by Guerrero's mom in the backyard. After that half the battle is won.
7) Address our relief pitching. I would be happy if Fuentes never got another save for the Angels in his career. I can count on one hand the amount of times Fuentes had a 1-2-3 inning. In a best-case scenario Shields could come back and be the closer (I know he is not perfect), Arrendondo can turn things around to compete with Jepsen for the set up role. Fuentes can become a situational later inning type pitcher. There are definitely a lot of ifs in that plan. Another option would be to pursue Papelbon. Just writing that make me feel weird and it would take a lot of money.
8) Lock up Jared Weaver. I know this will be difficult with Boras as his agent. He is a So Cal kid who likes playing here. The longer we wait the more expensive it is going to get. He will probably have to get a little more than Ervin Santana
Just don't propose a trade in which we give San Diego a poo poo platter of type B prospects for Adrian Gonzales. If a trade is going to be made, each team will have to view it as an advantageous deal.
Lets hope the Ninja has a good off-season.
This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.
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Nice post.
I agree with pretty much all of it. Except Papelbon. The organization has enough arms to fill the pen without spending half their off-season budget on a reliever.
Great points on Lackey. If they’re confident he’ll be healthy, all the focus should be on him. Everyone else is easily replaceable.
I'll second that
I know Papelbon is good, and will bounce back from the beating we put on him, but no way can I root for the guy. Plus we’d have to give up a lot to Boston to get him. I would not want to put any Angel through that.
The HK-47 hitting droid is the finest line drive machine ever built
Great post.
And you and I have the same opinion of Bradley, pass on the clubhouse cancer.
YOU DON'T KNOW THE POWER OF THE DARKSIDE.....
agrred?
I agree with everything except one point. You commented about Jason Bay hitting in Boston as if he only has hit there. He was a 30 hr, 100 rbi man in Pittsburg, on a really crappy team. And can his defense be worse than Rivera’s? If we go after a big bat outfielder, I say we make it Bay.
Wait
And can his defense be worse than Rivera’s?
How about saying, it is worse, and it wasn’t really close last year.
Nick would be proud.
by halofan4life on Oct 29, 2009 9:18 PM PDT up reply actions
I think it goes without saying that Brandon Wood will be playing 3rd base fulltime in 2010.
Figgins will get a four year contract from a team, and we will balk instantly.
I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....
and rightfully so
on both accounts
Thank you, Nick Adenhart. You will always be remembered. #34
by howiestheman on Oct 30, 2009 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions
A few things
1) I’m sorry, what? Figgins does not have 35 playoff steals. He has FOUR. I think you looked at Ks…of which he has 35. Also, he had his career year a couple seasons ago. I’d say this was his second best.
2) I take any opportunity to be a dick…so Fuentes had 14 1-2-3 innings…including one postseason save. He also had a handful of 0.2 perfect innings. So unless you have a severely deformed hand…? But I only say that to be a dick. ;-D
3) The team needs a bigger bat in the lineup than Vlad (and his injury potential) or Wood (who can’t be counted on as a sure thing) can necessarily offer. Along with getting a good starter, this needs to be addressed as essential.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Oct 29, 2009 9:55 PM PDT reply actions
Correction
Hey you are right about the strike outs. It is actually 35 strike outs and only four steals. ( I got things a little mixed up looking at the charts at baseball-reference. com) this even strengthens the argument of Figgins not performing in the playoffs
Even though Fuentes had 14 1-2-3 ininng a majority of them occurred in the first half of the season. Correct me if I am wrong but I think he had 4 1-2-3 innings after the all star break. Be that as it may I still don’t think he is the answer at closer.
It feels like it is the curse of the Angels closer to pitch with men on base. I think it has definitely knocked 5 years off my life.
I agree that the team needs a big bat. I just don’t see any FA or players on the trading block that will make a big difference. If we get deperate enough for a big bat we end signing a guy like GMJ for way too much money. All statistacal data pointed to GMJ having an anomoly (sponsored by HGH) during that year in Texas
Yes, but Matt Holliday and Jason Bay are not GMJ
this idea that Holliday can’t hit in the A.L. is based off of 2 months of data in which he was a mediocre hitter for the A’s, followed by a month of regular Holliday-esqe hitting. This surge in hitting was following a mechanical adjustment. He didn’t struggle ANYWHERE after the adjustment…not in Oakland or St. Louis. And in the end, his OPS with the A’s (.831, with no lineup protection in a losing environment), was a career LOW, in the neighborhood of GMJ’s career HIGH that came the season before we signed him.
Unless someone wants to actually make the argument that no hitter in the national league is ever as legitimate in the American League, there’s no reason to think he can’t hit here. Is the league probably, as a whole, a little weaker? Of course. But they’re part of the MLB. They draft from the same ranks, in the same drafts. They develop in the farm systems. They trade amongst each other. Play amongst each other. Finish regularly with statistically similar league leaders and stats. It’s impossible to reason that no National League hitters would be the same player in the American League…arguments that Holliday can’t hit in the A.L. would be better focused on him not being able to hit outside Coors…a fact disproved by his stint in St. Louis this year.
And Jason Bay is a machine. He’s hit in shitty lineups, and in the A.L. His glove is a liability, but he’s a menace at the plate. And he hit AWAY from Fenway this year, too (.904 OPS). The only thing with him is his glove and his age (age 31 season is upcoming), but I don’t think his skill set, mechanics, or physique lend themselves to rapid decline.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Oct 29, 2009 11:59 PM PDT up reply actions
the AL has the DH spot
for a reason. :)
Thank you, Nick Adenhart. You will always be remembered. #34
by howiestheman on Oct 30, 2009 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Yup
and as a side note, I would argue that the DH is directly responsible for a lot of the pitcher stat-inflation when they first move over to the A.L. from the N.L., before the make an adjustment.
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Oct 30, 2009 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Offering arbitration to Vlad
means a MINIMUM salary of $12mm, according to MLB arbitration rules.
There is NO way the team will offer Vladdy arbitration. He will be lucky to end up somewhere with a contract similar to Abreu’s.
In the end, all GA was able to sign for last winter, was $2.5mm.
Trade for a big bat.
Here is a very crazy abstract thought. Adrian Gonzalez is a big bat in San Diego. It’s a known fact he is going to be traded this offseason. Why not get him. Send Rivera, O’Sullivan, Bell and one of the Rodriguez boys to the Padres. They get 2 starting pitchers, a reliver and a much needed outfielder in the swap.
I know what you are thinking, we have Kendry at first, but before this season started, the plan was to resign Tex and move Kendry to the outfield. We can still do that and have another good bat in the lineup. Just food for thought.
Why
Here is a very crazy abstract thought. Adrian Gonzalez is a big bat in San Diego. It’s a known fact he is going to be traded this offseason. Why not get him. Send Rivera, O’Sullivan, Bell and one of the Rodriguez boys to the Padres. They get 2 starting pitchers, a reliver and a much needed outfielder in the swap.
Because there is no reason to believe Jed Hoyer has suffered a severe head injury. That offer would be remembered under “and a few other teams bid as well” when the trade of Gonzales to another team is reported.
"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon
by George Kaplan on Oct 30, 2009 3:19 AM PDT up reply actions
seriously
we had enough of this last offseason. stop it. just stop it.
the Padres are more interested in locking Adrian up long term.
Thank you, Nick Adenhart. You will always be remembered. #34
by howiestheman on Oct 30, 2009 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Bosox
I keep hearing talk of Gonzalez going to Boston. Exactly what do they have to offer the Padres that is better than what we have? If the talks are true and he may be traded to Boston, then why the hell don’t we jump in and improve the offer.
by Baylorsgroove on Nov 1, 2009 1:23 AM PDT up reply actions
Because
THE PADRES DO NOT WANT TO TRADE HIM! He is one of the best players in the game, the face of their franchise, and doesn’t make all that much money. And if for whatever reason they DO trade him, we won’t have the young talent to get a deal done. Why is this so hard to understand?
Towers
He threw the gasoline on the fire with his comments last week, saying the Pads will need a payroll of $40M for the next few seasons and that it would be foolish for the team to devote almost half of that to a single player.
Of course, he wasn’t the GM of the team any longer, but it does provide some insight to how the Padres front office might be planning for the future.
"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon
by George Kaplan on Nov 1, 2009 10:09 AM PST up reply actions
Why do we need Adrian Gonzalez?
Last time I checked, that Kendall Rosales guy was pretty good. And he plays the same position I think.
"F it, let's pitch." - Ervin Santana
by Chzburger Jones on Nov 2, 2009 12:12 AM PST up reply actions
Seriously.
If we’re going to package the bulk of our young talent for one player at least let it be for a front line starting pitcher.
Morales was supposed to play Left Field
If we had signed Tex. And I don’t know about you guys, but I wouldn’t mind a guy who hit 40 Home runs, when he plays 81 games in a pitchers park and one RBI short of 100, on what was the worse team in the NL West last year.
Maybe it is just me, but I’d really like the idea of having Morales, Abreu, and Gonzalez on our team all capable of hitting near 100 RBI. with roughly 70 home runs between Gonzo, and K-Mo.
But like what others have said, are the Angels willing to give up what it would take to land Gonzo. Maybe, it wouldn’t hurt for Mike and Tony to call up Bud Black and the Padres.
RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09
I blog about the Angels at The Diamond Aces
I'm all for it
I don’t know that the Angels would be willing to give what it would take to land Gonzales. As I’ve been criticized on the board for throwing out random names to land Gonzales and it won’t work.
I think the only way to land Gonzales would be an insane amount of cheap, major league ready players. And not scrap type players, but real MLB quality players.
I’d think the list starts with Kendrick (or) Aybar, Napoli (or) Mathis, Rivera, and either Saunders or Santana. That might blow away the Padres to make that deal. But then is it worth it?
Part of me still says yes.
RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09
I blog about the Angels at The Diamond Aces
Wrong.
It starts with Morales, who is cheap for a few more years, to replace Gonzales. Then it likely goes to one or two of our young infielders, and then likely Jordan Walden to complete the deal. If they want a catcher, they’ll ask for Napoli over Mathis, but more than likely would want Conger over both of him, since he won’t be going to arbitration any time soon.
So would you trade Kendry, Wood, Conger, and Walden for Gonzales?
no.
But replace Kendry with Rivera and I’d shake your hand on that deal. For Reals.
RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09
I blog about the Angels at The Diamond Aces
Well sure
except why would they make that trade? Rivera is a nice player, but essentially an average corner outfielder, not very young and is only signed for 2 more years.
Try again.
If I'm San Diego
And I’m trying to keep my budget down and field a competitive team, I would at least consider this deal. Of course I’d expect they would want O’Sullivan or Palmer in lieu of Walden. Conger is young and cheap. Wood is fairly young and will be cheap. Rivera is a nice player and his contract is real fair.
RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09
I blog about the Angels at The Diamond Aces
Why would they
want O’Sully or Palmer over Walden? Palmer is a journeyman and Sean is basically an organizational arm who will fill in when needed. Our new Dustin Moseley, if you will. Walden is universally praised as one of our top prospects, has a big power arm, and would likely have to be included in any such deal.
Are you on crack?
Of course I’d expect they would want O’Sullivan or Palmer in lieu of Walden.
In what parallel universe would a GM elect to take Matt Palmer in lieu of Jordan Walden?
I really don’t think you’re understanding what you’re proposing. The takeaway is that you want to have Gonzalez on the Angels, and you don’t have the slightest idea how to make that happen in the real world.
"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon
by George Kaplan on Nov 3, 2009 2:36 PM PST up reply actions
OK, I'll play
Let’s assume that the random collection of names is enough to pry Gonzales away from the Padres (we both know it isn’t, but let’s assume that it is).
Gonzales is under contract through the end of 2010, with an option for 2011. Maybe the Angels get him to sign another extension, but the fact is also that the Red Sox finally divest themselves of Lowell’s deal at the end of 2010 and can shift Youklis to 3B. Kotchman can be kept to play 1B in 2011, but if the Sox really want Gonzales to play 1B, they’ll move heaven and earth to sign him, in order to attempt to make up for the loss of power in the lineup (Ortiz, Drew and Victor Martinez would all have expired deals by then) and to maintain their presence in the AL East arms race.
Assuming then that Gonzalez’s agent is smart enough to let the market determine the player’s value, it would take an overwhelming—probably financially stupid—offer from the Angels to keep Gonzalez from free agency.
Therefore, if he leaves at the end of 2011, we would have traded away a starting 2B, a starting C and a starting pitcher for two seasons’ worth of Gonzalez. (In reality, the players would have been more along the lines of Reckling, Walden and Conger [and more, like the Braves/Rangers deal for Teixeira] than those you mentioned, with the effect of completely screwing up the development timeline from the minors.)
Smart? Not really. It is fun to imagine Gonzales mashing them in Anaheim, but the reality is that it would still amount to little more than a very costly rental. The long-term effects of giving up that much talent would be felt in the Angels organization long after Gonzalez was being fitted for a Red Sox uni.
"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon
by George Kaplan on Nov 3, 2009 11:05 AM PST up reply actions
I would love to have either Holliday or Bay on my team next year
I just don’t want them on my team in 2014 or beyond.
I think both players are excellent players and would contribute.
A) As my idea of Holliday can’t hit in the AL may be exaggerated by only a two month sample so is yours with his stint in St. Louis. I would really like to see him hit outside of Coors for a year with his "new" adjustment. Unfortunately we don’t have that luxury. Also in terms of protection, if he plays with the Angels there is no Pujols.
B) Scott Boras is his agent. I bet he already has a 5 inch book detailing how signing Holliday will bring your franchise millions of dollars in revenue as long as you sign along the dotted line. I know he will be asking for a contract greater than Hunter. Is it really going to be worth it? I guess that’s for Arte to decide.
As for Jason Bay I do think he is a machine but his age and declining mobility really scare me. We should not pay a DH outfielder money. And he will be a DH too soon for me.
Another angle to mention is that GM’s have no idea how players are going to age now that there is a more stringent drug testing policy. *In NO way, shape, or form am I accusing either Jason Bay or Matt Holliday of using performance enhancing drugs**. Gone are the days where we will expect a player’s power number to increase after he turns 33/34. The fact is that performance enhancing drugs had prolonged the careers of the previous generation of players. When contracts are discussed the player is invariably compared to another player of similar statistical accomplishments. The problem lies in the fact that the statistics are FUBAR ed because we don’t know who did or did not use, and how that ultimately affected that players career. The point is that Jason Bay may decline at a lot faster rate than we would expect, because he is clean.
I would love to sign either player to a 3 year deal with an option for a 4th. But we all know that is completely unrealistic.
chapman
absolutely go after him—I think he would play for us and be great simple as that
by spc7@verizon.net on Nov 1, 2009 6:58 AM PDT reply actions
You forgot this:
BRING THE DH TO THE NL!!!!!
I love this team.
by Downing Rules on Nov 3, 2009 6:16 PM PST up reply actions
ROFLCOPTER!
They want power. We want respect...
by SenorChuckles on Nov 4, 2009 4:50 PM PST up reply actions
Sign kendry Morales to a long term contract NOW!
I agree with most of what has been said here but I see a missing piece. The Angles must sign Kendry Morales to a long term contract before he is free agent material, or see him go the way of the other 30/100 1st baseman. 5 years $50 million or so should do it or risk seeing him gone in 2.
If it helps you to sleep better at night...
When Morales’ contract is up at the end of 2010, he then has three years of arbitration before he becomes a free agent in 2014.
It would be the height of idiocy to sign him to $50M/5 when he is going to be earning arb money for the next three years otherwise. It might also be nice to see him repeat his feat of 2009 before tossing bundles of hundreds at his feet. The league will figure him out in 2010 and the mark of his growth as a player will be to see how well he reacts and adapts to the revised pitching he receives.
"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon
by George Kaplan on Nov 2, 2009 5:13 PM PST up reply actions
I agree with all these points
well done, I just wouldn’t agree about Shields closing.
by The Blake Griffin Era on Nov 3, 2009 1:10 PM PST reply actions
Just so you all know, I WILL be coming back here to throw your thoughts in your faces once the season begins and we see how things work out!
Naw, just kidding. :)
For some offseason fun, check out the Mac & Windows Space Shooter game I helped make: Insectoid
I wouldn't call either Arte or Tony
Captain Obvious so expect a move or two most think can’t be done to happen this year.
When I'm not at the stadium, I'd rather be watching my Halos back in Costa Rica!
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