John Lackey: Should He Stay or Should He Go?
Pitcher John Lackey just turned 31. His forearm injuries have been babied by a confident Angels staff that took the long-term approach. They are not chronic injuries.
CC Sabathia has a 7 year, $161 Million contract
A.J. Burnett has a 5 year, $82 Million contract
There is going to be some bidding for John's services out there.
The question is not: "Should we bid for him?"
The question is "What is the absolute ceiling that the Angels should offer John Lackey?" followed by the question: "You wanna see Lackey pitching for Seattle, Boston or the Yankees with memories of being pulled in ALCS Game 5?"
0 recs |
38 comments
|
Comments
John Lackey? He hasnt won a playoff game since 2002!
ohh wait! Break the bank on this kid asap.
They want power. We want respect...
by SenorChuckles on Oct 30, 2009 1:40 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
As a rule of thumb...
…any FA pitching contract of longer than 4 years will end up being a disaster. You get 2 good years, if you’re lucky, and then the wear and tear starts to tell (e.g. Hampton, Zito). Even 4 years can be risky (e.g. Colon, Escobar).
4 yrs at $18m – take it or leave it. Probably leave it.
I see red people
by The Limey on Oct 30, 2009 4:21 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Except
Lackey is currently paid 10million and is not likely to see a decrease in salary.
My guess is he sees 14mil x 4 seasons, even as high as 60mil/4. That, or he does a 5 year deal in the 65-70 range.
by shiftyeyedgoat on Oct 30, 2009 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How much is he making this year?
The question is really how much more do we have to pay John to keep him as our ace. We have 10 million of Escobar’s money going off the books. Even if we keep Vlad we will probably pay him less.
Can we keep Lackey using some of the 10 million from Escobar (plus what we already pay him). There should be the money for 20 million a year, if that is what it takes (I don’t think that anyone is going to match Sabathia’s contract anytime soon, so I would think we are closer to Burnett’s deal than Sabathia’s, maybe 18-19 will do it). Can we use some of the money we now pay Vlad to keep him and Abreu?
I would really like to keep Oliver too, as he has been solid all year, is relatively cheap, and a dependable lefty bullpen guy is hard to find.
Check out these games:
Multiplayer Baseball: http://www.mmobaseball.com/createaccount.aspx?ref=9687
Multiplayer Football: http://goallineblitz.com/game/signup.pl?ref=16986650
by matthiasstephan on Oct 30, 2009 5:07 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Tough one...
I’m a big believer in dancin’ with the girl what done brung ya, but I’m actually leaning towards shaking Big John’s hand and wishing him well. I just think he’s going to be too expensive, and some other team is going to be in it for more than we’re willing to give him. There won’t be any hometown discount (Sosh made sure of that when he yanked Big John in Game 5), and whoever signs him, us included, is going to overpay. Not worth it…I don’t even have a price in mind, I just think that no matter where he ends up, he’s not going to be nearly as productive. I love Big John, but this free agent period for him has Barry Zito written alllllllll over it.
Thanks for the Game 7 in 2002, John. Hope an NL team signs you so we don’t have to feel too bad knockin’ you around too much.
No one, and I mean, no one comes into our house and pushes us around.
by It's A Trap! on Oct 30, 2009 5:30 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree with you about the ALCS G5 thing...
I think that was a final straw. I want Lackey back, but I think the Halos back out of this one entirely.
I love this team.
by Downing Rules on Oct 30, 2009 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just hope that NL team isn't the Doyers.
The only magic number now is #34
by Teixeira Who? on Oct 30, 2009 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
One of these days we'll have to keep somebody.
Salmon will be awfully lonely out there if the Angels ever build there own monument park.
Captain, there are doubt's...
by Match Day 5 on Oct 30, 2009 5:32 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
"We don't worry about talking, we fly flags here."
That’s John’s attitude, his fire. The two injuries have been minor and he’s a leader in this clubhouse. RE SIGN HIM!
Nick would be proud.
by halofan4life on Oct 30, 2009 6:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I want us to re-sign him, but I doubt he stays.
Happy Birthday to the ground!
by Monkeyspanked on Oct 30, 2009 6:44 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Just over
Burnett money. That seems fair to me. If Lackey does not come back, we are not as good, period. We can replace Vlad, Abreu, Figgins, and Oliver either internally or through the free agent scrap heap. There are no other Lackey’s just lying around, and a trade for a pitcher of his pedigree would be next to impossible to pull off without blowing a hole in our roster.
by dmhead on Oct 30, 2009 8:56 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
There is no free agent pitcher
who is at the caliber of Lackey. Give Lackey his Burnett offer. Maybe even slightly more. And give him a deadline. If Lackey still wants to play the market, get J.P. Ricardi’s replacement on the phone and have some serious conversations at to how we can trade for Halladay. First offer should include Napoli.
RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09
I blog about the Angels at The Diamond Aces
by Jay Cal on Oct 30, 2009 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep. There's Lackey and that's it.
I’ve said it before but I don’t really like anyone in this free agent market. They are all over-rated other than our guys. IMO. I don’t think I’d mind too much if we just stayed in-house this year.
Also it seemed last year that when our big hitters were out, (Vlad, Torii) Our offense was great. Everyone stepped up because they didn’t have anyone to lean on. Could they do it again? Could the pitchers do the same without Big John’s shadow? I think maybe they could. And with this crappy market, maybe this is the year they should try it.
Happy Birthday to the ground!
by Monkeyspanked on Oct 30, 2009 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My first priority right now would be to trade for Halladay...
Not sure he has much contract left, so it may not take a huge package. This would make Lackey expendable right away, and leave us with a hole or two to plug based on the package (Saundo, Rivera, some prospects?) which could be easily solved by re-signing figgins, Vlad, Abreu, a fifth starter, etc.
Halladay would be #1 we have been looking for. #1 Roy, #2 Weaver, #3 Kazmir, #4 Santana, #5 Doesn’t matter cuz the first four would be sick.
by Wytelitning on Oct 30, 2009 9:11 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
wow I type my reply
without reading yours.
RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09
I blog about the Angels at The Diamond Aces
by Jay Cal on Oct 30, 2009 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah that would be pretty
but when you consider the caliber of our young players/minor leagues vs. those on most other teams, we’d REALLY have to put a pretty big dent in our depth to even come close to an acceptable offer for Halladay. In his walk year, no less. So while our starting staff will be a little better (as great as Halladay is, Lackey at least holds a candle to him) our young offense will suddenly look A LOT worse.
by dmhead on Oct 30, 2009 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wouldn't it require less of a haul because it's his walk year?
I’m guessing they would now take less than what they were asking for at the deadline. He’s going somewhere this year, I would just rather go get him now than bid with everybody else at the trade deadline.
by Wytelitning on Oct 30, 2009 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I want him back
Until he leaves.
Then he can go screw himself.
Then I’ll get over it and wish him success.
What do you need a fancy suit for, Charlie, you ain't got no job to wear it to.
by clover_black on Oct 30, 2009 9:30 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
when he leaves
He’s dead to me. Technically, its where he ends up. I still cheer for Ecstein, AK, OC, GA, Percy, and Ersty.
However, Casey Kotchman is dead to me.
RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09
I blog about the Angels at The Diamond Aces
by Jay Cal on Oct 30, 2009 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
? How and why?
Poor Casey was given to Atlanta for Teix, then given to Boston for next to nothing.
He had (and still has) no say in the matter. I’m certain that if he and his 3 decades of service time in the Angels organization father had their way, he’d still be flying flags with us in Anaheim.
by shiftyeyedgoat on Oct 30, 2009 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
let's be honest
Burnett was/is highly overpaid because the Yankees wanted to make sure they were the only ones that could afford him. Neither he nor Lackey are really worth that kind of money.
However, because that’s where the bar is set, I’d say we could match it. Lackey and Burnett are eerily similar pitchers, so I can see us paying him about the same. But, really, anything over that is ridiculous, and you let him walk.
Thank you, Nick Adenhart. You will always be remembered. #34
by howiestheman on Oct 30, 2009 10:57 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I never really understand why everybody (not just fans) use prior contracts as any sort of benchmark.
So what if CC makes this or Burnett makes that? Those deals were as much a function of timing of competing needs as they were raw player value. The timing is different, so competing needs between teams are different and available funding within each team is different and the greater economy is different, etc.
Who has money to spend right now? Of those, who can afford to spend it right now on a front of the rotation pitcher who can give you 5-6 strong innings every outing? Of those, who can afford to do that right now above other needs? Of those, who currently represents stable ownership, strong team leadership, and a strong local market (to afford consistently filling out competitve teams, which appears to be something Lackey prefers)?
Whittle those down and you find Lackey’s community of buyers. From that comes Lackey’s offers. That those offers may not have a damned thing to do with how prior pitchers benefitted (or not) in other circumstances should not mean crapola. It will, I know, but it shouldn’t.
I wonder what John Lackey must think about how long Sosh left Juan Rivera in the playoff lineup?
by Stirrups on Oct 30, 2009 11:24 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The rule of thumb
you can never have too much pitching.
That said, Lackey’s bidders will be self-whittled to “Championship caliber” teams, and market-pared to teams looking to spend 13-18mil/year for the next half decade or so. I’d say that leaves around 6-7 valid contenders, of whom only 3-4 may make an offer.
by shiftyeyedgoat on Oct 30, 2009 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We lost Nolan Ryan...
…because the organization didn’t think he was all that special. Many years later the team regretted it. Lackey is the closest thing the Angels currently have to an ace. Are we going to let him go to Texas, as well? I’m not saying Lackey is Nolan Ryan, but he means a heck of a lot to this organization right now.
I don’t want to see him replaced with a couple average pitchers. But, why do I sense history repeating itself?
I'm still not over losing Tex.
by 10 27 02 on Oct 30, 2009 11:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Going home again...
This has got to be one of the most overrated factors when evaluating the free agent market. Texas can’t even make payroll and you think they’re going to offer eight figure contracts to ANYONE?
by dmhead on Oct 30, 2009 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ryan never lost his focus just because of an error or a bad call behind him.
Lackey is the big dog when everything is going his way but a little misfortune or tribulation, he turns into a poodle.
Thanks for the memories, here are some nice parting gifts. Don’t let the door hit you and the way out.
by SoCalWine on Oct 30, 2009 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
John Lackey is not Nolan Ryan...
not even close.
by Nashdiesel on Oct 30, 2009 5:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sign him
But PLEASE do not include a “no trade” clause
by mustard_man on Oct 30, 2009 1:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
He has been Mr Angel since Salmon left........
He belongs here.
Hopefully he wants to come back and he’s given a fair deal.
"Maybe Fitzy just has a horsehoe up his ass winning the two games he has, but you don’t bench someone who has a horseshoe up his ass." - Applsoss
by norcaliangelsfan on Oct 30, 2009 1:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I have to give that title to Vlad
Even though he wasn’t homegrown.
The only magic number now is #34
by Teixeira Who? on Oct 30, 2009 7:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I sure would like to keep him
Offer him the same as what Burnett is getting
Xavier Calvera
by xavier c on Oct 30, 2009 4:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
If it's about the playoffs
why wouldn’t we resign him? Who is close to being a Game 1 or Game 7 starter out of Weaver, Kazmir, Saundo, Santana? No one, I think. Lackey is not an elite pitcher like Sabathia, Lee, Halladay, etc., but he is a very solid #1, and we need him, not to win 90+ games in the regular season, but to have a good shot in the playoffs.
by BigSnyan on Oct 30, 2009 11:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

by 






















