Angels 97-Win Season Predicted by Rev Halofan

by Rev Halofan on Oct 4, 2009 11:08 PM PDT in Angels News

I am going to pull a ChugRichter here and toot my own horn like it is the only one in the orchestra...

I shot a video with my dog prior to opening day and predicted a 97-Win Season for the Angels in 2009. The Angels won their 97th game of the 2009 season on its final day, earlier today!

Additionally, I explained the hole in the statistical models that regularly underpredict the Angels' performance. Toot Toot...

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Rev - 1, BP - 0

Let’s just get ready to see the rest of your prediction about the post-season come true.

by HaloFanInDC on Oct 4, 2009 11:26 PM PDT reply actions

Seems reasonable

That given how often they run 1st to 3rd on the basepaths, it can’t be accounted for in any statistic. Only on a finished scorecard could we see the results of Angel baserunning.

Perhaps it is time to devise a stat that measures the number of bases reached. Similar to slugging (and yes Rev you are correct about how slugging pct is measured) but would add in stolen bases, bases advanced due to wild pitch, passed ball, balk, etc.

The problem would then become how useful of a statistic could it really be?

Beat the Angels if you can... Survive if they let you.

by blast21dave on Oct 4, 2009 11:30 PM PDT reply actions

good point about "usefulness"

it would be an outlier stat, but if they had it they would not be so cocky about how the team does not operate to their model.

by Rev Halofan on Oct 4, 2009 11:37 PM PDT up reply actions

They measure that on Baseball Reference

by mattwelch on Oct 5, 2009 5:06 AM PDT up reply actions

Not to say I told you so buttt

May 23:
Howie Kendrick
Forecast the rest of the season: .310/.340/.435.
Actual stats- .328/.369/.489 (this was before he was demoted)

June 1st- (my last analytical post I think)
Aybar is fine (before he turned it on)
Maicer is an effective player
We are panicking right now and want to make moves left and right, but take a look outside (sorry non west coasters), bask in the sun, take a deep breath and relax
“[There] will be able the Angel renaissance.” (since June 1st, 71-41)

And basically spot on about this
“I think Holliday will wind up in the about 5.5 WAR range” (actual-5.4)

But I dont mean to gloat, just wanted to point it out (I was called crazy for alot of those btw)

That'll only happen if that one prospect is the second coming of Christ and redemption for mankind can only be achieved by smacking many balls out of the yard.
-The Limey

by anaheim angels on Oct 5, 2009 12:19 AM PDT reply actions

The Pythagorean Projections

That you refer to has nothing to do in the least with OBP and SLG. Only runs scored, which does take into account going from first to third.

OBP and SLG. do factor into how many runs a team is projected to score BEFORE THE YEAR STARTS, so your point would be valid if it is concerning the reasons that we outperform our preseason projections (although, I would like to see some concrete numbers showing that we went first to third more than most other teams this year and didn’t get thrown out as much).

But it has nothing to do with the fact that we’ve surpassed our Pythagorean projection year after year since that projection is based on the runs we have ALREADY scored vs. the runs we have ALREADY allowed after a season is over. The underlying factors such as OBP, SLG., and going from first to third are completely irrelevant…

by Spird on Oct 5, 2009 12:23 AM PDT reply actions

i should have named names

pecota BANG…

by Rev Halofan on Oct 5, 2009 12:37 AM PDT up reply actions

Gotcha

Makes a lot more sense if you meant Pecota and not Pythagorean Projections. I genuinely would be interested to see how many more times we went first to third than other teams this year, at what percentage, and how many more runs we scored because of it. I haven’t been able to find those stats anywhere and don’t have time to tabulate them myself, but it would be interesting to find out if you are right.

Until then, I’m still sort of skeptical…Nonetheless, congrats on nailing the 97 wins! That is very impressive!

by Spird on Oct 5, 2009 12:45 AM PDT up reply actions

For the Pythag projections

A good reason why we over produce is because of the Scioscia way of dealing with any situation.

If the Angels are ahead by a lot, he’ll put in the bad relief pitchers until they give up enough runs that would require him to bring in his setup man or the pitcher closes the game out.
Thus Angels rarely win in a blow out, rather they win in a slim margin (this accounts for why the Angels have so many one-run wins)

If the Angels are down a lot, Soth will put in a bad reliever, who ends up giving up more runs, but Soth lets the guy stay out there to “figure it out”. So games where the Angels are down a lot, end up being down by a lot more, which leads to very few one-run games that the Angels end up losing in.

The Big Red Machine V.2 is coming this Fall 2009. Go Halos!

by Slyintine on Oct 5, 2009 12:42 AM PDT up reply actions

This is the best practical explanation for it.

And it definitely seems true. On the flip side of that though, we also put shitty pitchers in the game when we’re blowing a team out, which I confess, didn’t happen as often in past years as it did this year. Another thing that supports your point that also bears mentioning is that even when we are down 2-3 runs in the 7th or 8th inning, Soth tends to go with the 4th or 5th best reliever…

by Spird on Oct 5, 2009 12:49 AM PDT up reply actions

The Angels usually carry an extra reliever

who frankly sucks (aka Moseley) who they throw in when the game is decided, and usually give up alot of runs, turning a 6-1 or 7-1 game into a 12-1 game

That'll only happen if that one prospect is the second coming of Christ and redemption for mankind can only be achieved by smacking many balls out of the yard.
-The Limey

by anaheim angels on Oct 5, 2009 1:02 AM PDT up reply actions

Ugh...

I meant to say that we also face a lot of shitty pitchers when we are blowing teams out…so it should even out it that regard…But you’re right about how we put terrible pitchers in blowout games on either side, and probably more than other teams do it to us, which is a good at least partial explanation for the whole pyth. debacle.

by Spird on Oct 5, 2009 1:15 AM PDT up reply actions

it is because

our shitty pitchers have grit in their sh—….. oh never mind

by Rev Halofan on Oct 5, 2009 1:32 AM PDT up reply actions

I don't think the numbers would support this speculative theory

I agree that Mike tends to put in our best pitchers when the game is close, leaving our worst pitchers for situations where we are up by a lot or down by a lot, but every team does this. Second, the idea that we win an unusually high % of 1-run games was discredited, I believe, in a prior thread. Although our record in 1-run games is very good, it is consistent with our overall record, meaning we win 1-run games at the same pace as all other games.

by Brody on Oct 5, 2009 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions

I predict...

That the world will end in 2012. At least we’ll have the ASG here and a couple more fall classics before that ever happens.

Win For Adenhart - R.I.P #34

by VladdyG on Oct 5, 2009 1:48 AM PDT via mobile reply actions

I wnna see the rest of the video

where Wilma comes to the door and let’s Aybar back in but leaves you out for the rest of the night. A modern stoneage family.

Captain, there are doubt's...

by Match Day 5 on Oct 5, 2009 5:25 AM PDT reply actions

The first part of your prediction was spot-on accurate.

Now, if the 2nd part of your prediction comes true (“The Angels will win 11 post-season games”), we will need to build a Nostradamus-worthy shrine somewhere in the vicinity of the Big A to honor the Rev HaloFan…and his dog Aybar.

by sothball on Oct 5, 2009 9:20 AM PDT reply actions

that's pretty sweet

I actually had ’em at 94 wins. so kudos to you

"This is a guy who is a combination of great courage and, nuts!"- Steve Physioc

by Brian S (brianguy) on Oct 5, 2009 9:26 AM PDT reply actions

hopefully rev your last prediction comes true

Bring back Lackey

by Angelsrthebest101 on Oct 5, 2009 9:49 AM PDT reply actions

Congratulations

I didn’t have them predicted to win as many as 97, but I did have the Angels as the #1 team in the west. At this point it doesn’t matter to me how they get to the playoffs, but what they do once there. So I really hope to see this video replayed in a few weeks once “11 in the postseason” comes true.

The HK-47 hitting droid is the finest line drive machine ever built

by RallyMonkey5 on Oct 5, 2009 10:21 AM PDT reply actions

Weren’t the BtB guys trying to figure out a way to incorporate the baserunning into pythag (or add it separately or something)? Or maybe this might make a good THT Handbook article? ;-)

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!

by baetown415 on Oct 5, 2009 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions