FanPost

Red Sox vs Angels, Game #1 Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 50000 baseball games between the Red Sox and Angels using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  For your viewing pleasure I have also listed a few other games of local interest.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 1000PM)

 

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob AccuScore
BOS LAA J.Lester vs J.Lackey BOS 51.21% 51.49% 45%

 Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts... My simulator and the Vegas odds are in good agreement that the Red Sox might be very slight favorites, but for the most part this game is a toss up.  AccuScore has their results out and are the outlier with the Angels a moderate favorite.

 

Top 20 Most Likely Scores

1 LAA 4-3
2 LAA 3-2
3 LAA 5-4
4 LAA 6-5
5 LAA 2-1
6 BOS 3-2
7 BOS 5-4
8 BOS 4-3
9 BOS 4-2
10 BOS 5-3
11 LAA 4-2
12 LAA 5-3
13 LAA 7-6
14 BOS 5-2
15 BOS 2-1
16 BOS 6-5
17 BOS 6-4
18 BOS 3-1
19 BOS 6-3
20 LAA 3-1

 

Game Pitching Results

Pitcher IP SO BB HR WHIP FIP
J.Lester 6.6 6.218 1.978 0.641 1.368 3.477
J.Lackey 6.6 5.222 1.900 0.832 1.375 4.115

 


Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups  I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
  Name wOBA Name wOBA
1 J.Ellsbury .3203 C.Figgins .3220
2 D.Pedroia .3398 B.Abreu .3310
3 J.Drew .3552 T.Hunter .3525
4 K.Youkilis .3604 V.Guerrero .3517
5 D.Ortiz .3560 J.Rivera .3256
6 J.Bay .3401 K.Morales .3447
7 M.Lowell .3335 J.Mathis .2668
8 J.Varitek .2847 H.Kendrick .3120
9 A.Gonzalez .2864 E.Aybar .3184

 

 

 



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