Red Sox vs Angels, Game #1 Simulation
by Xeifrank on Oct 7, 2009 11:11 PM PDT
36 comments
I used my simulator to simulate 50000 baseball games between the Red Sox and Angels using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. For your viewing pleasure I have also listed a few other games of local interest.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 1000PM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob | AccuScore |
| BOS | LAA | J.Lester vs J.Lackey | BOS | 51.21% | 51.49% | 45% |
Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... My simulator and the Vegas odds are in good agreement that the Red Sox might be very slight favorites, but for the most part this game is a toss up. AccuScore has their results out and are the outlier with the Angels a moderate favorite.
|
Top 20 Most Likely Scores |
|
| 1 | LAA 4-3 |
| 2 | LAA 3-2 |
| 3 | LAA 5-4 |
| 4 | LAA 6-5 |
| 5 | LAA 2-1 |
| 6 | BOS 3-2 |
| 7 | BOS 5-4 |
| 8 | BOS 4-3 |
| 9 | BOS 4-2 |
| 10 | BOS 5-3 |
| 11 | LAA 4-2 |
| 12 | LAA 5-3 |
| 13 | LAA 7-6 |
| 14 | BOS 5-2 |
| 15 | BOS 2-1 |
| 16 | BOS 6-5 |
| 17 | BOS 6-4 |
| 18 | BOS 3-1 |
| 19 | BOS 6-3 |
| 20 | LAA 3-1 |
|
Game Pitching Results |
||||||
| Pitcher | IP | SO | BB | HR | WHIP | FIP |
| J.Lester | 6.6 | 6.218 | 1.978 | 0.641 | 1.368 | 3.477 |
| J.Lackey | 6.6 | 5.222 | 1.900 | 0.832 | 1.375 | 4.115 |
Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup. The lineups I used are listed below. Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off. Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off. But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.
| Simulation Lineups | ||||
| Name | wOBA | Name | wOBA | |
| 1 | J.Ellsbury | .3203 | C.Figgins | .3220 |
| 2 | D.Pedroia | .3398 | B.Abreu | .3310 |
| 3 | J.Drew | .3552 | T.Hunter | .3525 |
| 4 | K.Youkilis | .3604 | V.Guerrero | .3517 |
| 5 | D.Ortiz | .3560 | J.Rivera | .3256 |
| 6 | J.Bay | .3401 | K.Morales | .3447 |
| 7 | M.Lowell | .3335 | J.Mathis | .2668 |
| 8 | J.Varitek | .2847 | H.Kendrick | .3120 |
| 9 | A.Gonzalez | .2864 | E.Aybar | .3184 |
This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.
0 recs |
36 comments
Email
Print
Comments
Thanks--Cool tool
Also, FEARAGHAOEGHAEWIGHAILGHAGLHAGAEWGAHGEW at the Sux having the advantage. Not that we didn’t already know that, but still. It’s painful to see it in such stark print. BUCK THE TREND! BUCK THE TREND! $#%#$t
RIP Nick Adenhart.
"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5
by Clutch on Oct 7, 2009 11:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't put Mathis batting 7th
Probably 9th
The Big Red Machine V.2 is coming this Fall 2009. Go Halos!
by Slyintine on Oct 7, 2009 11:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
That's the lineup
you provided in the game thread earlier (with Naps in place of Mathis). I thought something looked off from the lineups of early Sept.
Beat the Angels if you can... Survive if they let you.
by blast21dave on Oct 7, 2009 11:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure I'd have Mathis batting at all.
Naps has more power, but Mathis has the better D, Naps has the potential to open the game wide open, but Mathis has been clutch every once in a great while, f&ck it, lets play ball!!
YOU DON'T KNOW THE POWER OF THE DARKSIDE.....
by halofolife on Oct 7, 2009 11:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but that's the line-up the Soth is putting out there!
Mathis and all!
RIP Nick Adenhart.
"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5
by Clutch on Oct 7, 2009 11:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hopefully he'll surprise us and actually HIT!
Although at this point the Sosh himself could probably hit better…
RIP Nick Adenhart.
"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5
by Clutch on Oct 7, 2009 11:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If all the baseball gods align,
Mathis will get a VERY clutch hit in the ALDS, after all, the boy is more than due.
YOU DON'T KNOW THE POWER OF THE DARKSIDE.....
by halofolife on Oct 8, 2009 12:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
OhpleaseohpleaseohpleaseOhpleaseohpleaseohpleaseOhpleaseohpleaseohpleaseOhpleaseohpleaseohpleaseOhpleaseohpleaseohplease
And let it MATTER! :-D
RIP Nick Adenhart.
"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5
by Clutch on Oct 8, 2009 12:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
if it means anything to anybody
every single game i go to, it seems mathis is in the lineup.. and every single one of those games i say “dammit, why is mathis in the lineup? he can’t hit!”..
and sure enough, every game i went to this year, mathis got at least 1 solid hit, sometimes a couple.. lets hope this streak continues, seeing how i’ll be at tomorrows game! :-)
World Series '09 - In Memory of #34 Nick Adenhart!
by b0rd3rline on Oct 8, 2009 12:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does Mathis
look up into the stands to see you glowing like Redford did to Glenn Close in THE NATURAL?
by Rev Halofan on Oct 8, 2009 1:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Go! Go! Go! Let's do it Jeffy!
RIP Nick Adenhart.
"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5
by Clutch on Oct 8, 2009 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This happened to me too
Mathis came up in the second inning and I remarked to my friend that it was basically an automatic strikeout. Of course Mathis then hit a homerun.
Naturally he was awful the rest of the game. Way to get my hopes all up!
I feel the need, the need...for speed!
by Gorbachav5 on Oct 8, 2009 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A great irony in that 51.21 percent
those are the house odds of the pass-line (the initial bet) in CRAPS.
THE PLAYOFFS ARE A CRAPSHOOT!
by Rev Halofan on Oct 8, 2009 12:06 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, they say the playoffs are a crapshoot, right?
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 8, 2009 7:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We do better predicting on our own in the Pregame Picks...
The 2009 Pregame Picks Winner and Iron Man of Halos Heaven.com
by 44FAN on Oct 8, 2009 2:24 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
by WE you mean YOU
i suck at predicting the future … hope is the enemy of the sychic
by Rev Halofan on Oct 8, 2009 2:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do me a favor...
type in “most likely winning lotto numbers” on your fancy pants future machine for me.
by Doctor Wu on Oct 8, 2009 8:37 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Great work.
Who will win this series? Vegas.
by Fan Since 1981 on Oct 8, 2009 9:07 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Interesting...
I too, saw the Accuscore thing and the vegas odds and saw that they conflicted…
I also found it interesting that the opening line was +110 for Boston (or 55%) but has since dropped to +104 (52%)…
Mathis is batting 8th not 7th right?
But as you said, that probably won’t do much to change the results…
by Jietoh on Oct 8, 2009 9:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Also interesting...
I find it also interesting that your top 5 most probable outcomes have the Halos winning by one run yet the Suxs are slightly favored…
by Jietoh on Oct 8, 2009 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, there is a very detailed explanation of this in the Fanpost. Check out the link in the first paragraph of the Fanpost. Someone on the Cardinals blog went back and looked at all the empirical data to test a point I made about the one run scores for home teams are mostly due to the rules of baseball (think ‘walk off’). It’s a good read. Thanks for the thoughtful posts.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 8, 2009 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Final comments...
Why does Ortiez have such a huge wOBA? I thought he pretty much stunk this year?
If Veritek starts I’ll buy you a beer. It’ll be Vic Martinez behind the plate.
by Jietoh on Oct 8, 2009 9:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
He's been awesome since June 1
Something like .264 w/ 28 HR and a shitton of RBI. Fear him.
RIP Nick Adenhart.
"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5
by Clutch on Oct 8, 2009 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not quite "awesome"
But certainly better than a lump of crap, which is what he was for the first two months. He’s still absolutely terrible against lefties.
I feel the need, the need...for speed!
by Gorbachav5 on Oct 8, 2009 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The player projections input into the simulator are built with data over the past three calander years with most recent data weighted heavier of course. Of course the algorithm is more complicated than that, but that’s why a few bad months won’t show up as heavy.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 8, 2009 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
was 1986
really the last time we beat them at home in postseason? wow…
by SCHalo on Oct 8, 2009 10:16 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yep apparently so...
C’mon lets BREAK THAT STREAK!
RIP Nick Adenhart.
"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5
by Clutch on Oct 8, 2009 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I used to beat the Milwaukee Brewers over and over again...
with my Intellivision. In 500 game simulations, the Halos beat them each time. And I dreamed we went on to the franchise’s first world series. Too bad my Intellivision skills could not control the real team. Yount and Molitor went o’fer in every game. Ahh, I could dream, couldn’t I?
I love this team.
by Downing Rules on Oct 8, 2009 12:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The stadium speakers should blare Intellivison baseball's very unique "Yer out!"
everytime a Boston hitter is out.
by Fan Since 1981 on Oct 8, 2009 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh cool, so there's no reason to actually play the games now?
Napoli IS the power bat in 2009. Watch.
by 101halo on Oct 8, 2009 12:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
haha, yeah there is usually one person on every forum that makes that comment.
Congrats! :)
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 8, 2009 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lucky #69
For those keeping score at home, an Angels 5-0 victory was the 69th most likely final score via my simulator. Nice win.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 8, 2009 10:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Cool
I came back here to find out that exact thing!
I'm not superstitious, but I'm a little stitious.
by lightupthehalo on Oct 9, 2009 6:14 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
