Red Sox vs Angels, Game #1 Simulation
by Xeifrank on Oct 7, 2009 11:11 PM PDT
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PrintI used my simulator to simulate 50000 baseball games between the Red Sox and Angels using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. For your viewing pleasure I have also listed a few other games of local interest.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 1000PM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob | AccuScore |
| BOS | LAA | J.Lester vs J.Lackey | BOS | 51.21% | 51.49% | 45% |
Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... My simulator and the Vegas odds are in good agreement that the Red Sox might be very slight favorites, but for the most part this game is a toss up. AccuScore has their results out and are the outlier with the Angels a moderate favorite.
|
Top 20 Most Likely Scores |
|
| 1 | LAA 4-3 |
| 2 | LAA 3-2 |
| 3 | LAA 5-4 |
| 4 | LAA 6-5 |
| 5 | LAA 2-1 |
| 6 | BOS 3-2 |
| 7 | BOS 5-4 |
| 8 | BOS 4-3 |
| 9 | BOS 4-2 |
| 10 | BOS 5-3 |
| 11 | LAA 4-2 |
| 12 | LAA 5-3 |
| 13 | LAA 7-6 |
| 14 | BOS 5-2 |
| 15 | BOS 2-1 |
| 16 | BOS 6-5 |
| 17 | BOS 6-4 |
| 18 | BOS 3-1 |
| 19 | BOS 6-3 |
| 20 | LAA 3-1 |
|
Game Pitching Results |
||||||
| Pitcher | IP | SO | BB | HR | WHIP | FIP |
| J.Lester | 6.6 | 6.218 | 1.978 | 0.641 | 1.368 | 3.477 |
| J.Lackey | 6.6 | 5.222 | 1.900 | 0.832 | 1.375 | 4.115 |
Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup. The lineups I used are listed below. Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off. Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off. But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.
| Simulation Lineups | ||||
| Name | wOBA | Name | wOBA | |
| 1 | J.Ellsbury | .3203 | C.Figgins | .3220 |
| 2 | D.Pedroia | .3398 | B.Abreu | .3310 |
| 3 | J.Drew | .3552 | T.Hunter | .3525 |
| 4 | K.Youkilis | .3604 | V.Guerrero | .3517 |
| 5 | D.Ortiz | .3560 | J.Rivera | .3256 |
| 6 | J.Bay | .3401 | K.Morales | .3447 |
| 7 | M.Lowell | .3335 | J.Mathis | .2668 |
| 8 | J.Varitek | .2847 | H.Kendrick | .3120 |
| 9 | A.Gonzalez | .2864 | E.Aybar | .3184 |
This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.
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Thanks--Cool tool
Also, FEARAGHAOEGHAEWIGHAILGHAGLHAGAEWGAHGEW at the Sux having the advantage. Not that we didn’t already know that, but still. It’s painful to see it in such stark print. BUCK THE TREND! BUCK THE TREND! $#%#$t
RIP Nick Adenhart.
"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5
I wouldn't put Mathis batting 7th
Probably 9th
The Big Red Machine V.2 is coming this Fall 2009. Go Halos!
That's the lineup
you provided in the game thread earlier (with Naps in place of Mathis). I thought something looked off from the lineups of early Sept.
Beat the Angels if you can... Survive if they let you.
I'm not sure I'd have Mathis batting at all.
Naps has more power, but Mathis has the better D, Naps has the potential to open the game wide open, but Mathis has been clutch every once in a great while, f&ck it, lets play ball!!
YOU DON'T KNOW THE POWER OF THE DARKSIDE.....
Yeah, but that's the line-up the Soth is putting out there!
Mathis and all!
RIP Nick Adenhart.
"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5
Hopefully he'll surprise us and actually HIT!
Although at this point the Sosh himself could probably hit better…
RIP Nick Adenhart.
"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5
If all the baseball gods align,
Mathis will get a VERY clutch hit in the ALDS, after all, the boy is more than due.
YOU DON'T KNOW THE POWER OF THE DARKSIDE.....
OhpleaseohpleaseohpleaseOhpleaseohpleaseohpleaseOhpleaseohpleaseohpleaseOhpleaseohpleaseohpleaseOhpleaseohpleaseohplease
And let it MATTER! :-D
RIP Nick Adenhart.
"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5
if it means anything to anybody
every single game i go to, it seems mathis is in the lineup.. and every single one of those games i say “dammit, why is mathis in the lineup? he can’t hit!”..
and sure enough, every game i went to this year, mathis got at least 1 solid hit, sometimes a couple.. lets hope this streak continues, seeing how i’ll be at tomorrows game! :-)
World Series '09 - In Memory of #34 Nick Adenhart!
Does Mathis
look up into the stands to see you glowing like Redford did to Glenn Close in THE NATURAL?
Go! Go! Go! Let's do it Jeffy!
RIP Nick Adenhart.
"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5
This happened to me too
Mathis came up in the second inning and I remarked to my friend that it was basically an automatic strikeout. Of course Mathis then hit a homerun.
Naturally he was awful the rest of the game. Way to get my hopes all up!
I feel the need, the need...for speed!
A great irony in that 51.21 percent
those are the house odds of the pass-line (the initial bet) in CRAPS.
THE PLAYOFFS ARE A CRAPSHOOT!
We do better predicting on our own in the Pregame Picks...
The 2009 Pregame Picks Winner and Iron Man of Halos Heaven.com
Do me a favor...
type in “most likely winning lotto numbers” on your fancy pants future machine for me.
Interesting...
I too, saw the Accuscore thing and the vegas odds and saw that they conflicted…
I also found it interesting that the opening line was +110 for Boston (or 55%) but has since dropped to +104 (52%)…
Mathis is batting 8th not 7th right?
But as you said, that probably won’t do much to change the results…
Also interesting...
I find it also interesting that your top 5 most probable outcomes have the Halos winning by one run yet the Suxs are slightly favored…
Yes, there is a very detailed explanation of this in the Fanpost. Check out the link in the first paragraph of the Fanpost. Someone on the Cardinals blog went back and looked at all the empirical data to test a point I made about the one run scores for home teams are mostly due to the rules of baseball (think ‘walk off’). It’s a good read. Thanks for the thoughtful posts.
vr, Xei
Final comments...
Why does Ortiez have such a huge wOBA? I thought he pretty much stunk this year?
If Veritek starts I’ll buy you a beer. It’ll be Vic Martinez behind the plate.
He's been awesome since June 1
Something like .264 w/ 28 HR and a shitton of RBI. Fear him.
RIP Nick Adenhart.
"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5
Not quite "awesome"
But certainly better than a lump of crap, which is what he was for the first two months. He’s still absolutely terrible against lefties.
I feel the need, the need...for speed!
Yep apparently so...
C’mon lets BREAK THAT STREAK!
RIP Nick Adenhart.
"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5
I used to beat the Milwaukee Brewers over and over again...
with my Intellivision. In 500 game simulations, the Halos beat them each time. And I dreamed we went on to the franchise’s first world series. Too bad my Intellivision skills could not control the real team. Yount and Molitor went o’fer in every game. Ahh, I could dream, couldn’t I?
I love this team.
The stadium speakers should blare Intellivison baseball's very unique "Yer out!"
everytime a Boston hitter is out.
by Fan Since 1981 on Oct 8, 2009 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh cool, so there's no reason to actually play the games now?
Napoli IS the power bat in 2009. Watch.
Lucky #69
For those keeping score at home, an Angels 5-0 victory was the 69th most likely final score via my simulator. Nice win.
vr, Xei
Cool
I came back here to find out that exact thing!
I'm not superstitious, but I'm a little stitious.
by lightupthehalo on Oct 9, 2009 6:14 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
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