Red Sox vs Angels, Game #2 Simulation

by Xeifrank on Oct 9, 2009 8:50 AM PDT Comment 13 comments

I used my simulator to simulate 50000 baseball games between the Red Sox and Angels using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 1100PM)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
BOS	LAA	J.Beckett vs J.Weaver	BOS	TBD	52.10%	48%

Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... Vegas odds weren't available when I ran this simulation last night. Feel free to post their odds (Vegas Money Line) in this thread. My simulator is handicapping Game #2 about the same as it did Game #1, with the Red Sox as the ever so slight favorite. AccuScore just flips the teams and instead gives the Angels a 52% win probability. Should be interesting to see where the Vegas line comes in and what the betting public thinks.

Top 30 Most Likely Scores
1	LAA 5-4
2	LAA 4-3
3	LAA 3-2
4	LAA 6-5
5	BOS 4-3
6	BOS 5-4
7	LAA 7-6
8	BOS 3-2
9	BOS 5-3
10	BOS 4-2
11	LAA 4-2
12	BOS 6-4
13	BOS 6-5
14	LAA 5-3
15	LAA 2-1
16	BOS 5-2
17	LAA 6-4
18	BOS 6-3
19	LAA 8-7
20	BOS 7-6
21	LAA 6-3
22	LAA 5-2
23	BOS 7-3
24	BOS 7-4
25	BOS 3-1
26	BOS 6-2
27	BOS 2-1
28	LAA 6-2
29	BOS 7-5
30	LAA 4-1

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
J.Beckett	6.7	6.006	1.388	0.869	1.345	3.718
J.Weaver	6.5	5.083	2.178	0.938	1.453	4.525

Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup. The lineups I used are listed below. Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off. Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off. But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	J.Ellsbury	.3229	C.Figgins	.3343
2	D.Pedroia	.3454	B.Abreu	.3511
3	V.Martinez	.3439	T.Hunter	.3430
4	K.Youkilis	.3704	V.Guerrero	.3678
5	D.Ortiz	.3671	J.Rivera	.3326
6	J.Bay	.3450	K.Morales	.3531
7	M.Lowell	.3373	J.Mathis	.3282
8	J.Drew	.3638	H.Kendrick	.2492
9	A.Gonzalez	.2881	E.Aybar	.3182

This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.

0 recs | Comment 13 comments

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Comments

It was announced on the radio last night

That Napoli and Izturis will replace Mathis and Kendrick in the lineup tonight. FYI.

Napoli IS the power bat in 2009. Watch.

by 101halo on Oct 9, 2009 9:29 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Ok, thanks. I won’t have a chance to rerun the sim, but it should be less than a 0.5% change at most.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 9, 2009 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

How far down the simulation line was 5-0 last night?

I read your last post, I don’t remember seeing 5-0 in the top 30. I’m glad your sims are right in predicting the winner!

The bat of Howie will rise again!

by The Furious Bat of Howie47 on Oct 9, 2009 9:58 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

69th

as posted in the other Fanpost in the comments after the game was over. :)
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 9, 2009 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I find it amusing

That the 21st and 22nd most probable results have the Dodgers winning by three runs. I suppose it doesn’t matter to me so long as the Red Sox lose.

Just kidding around. Thanks for the sim results.

by Suboptimal on Oct 9, 2009 10:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

haha, thanks for pointing out the typo. Fixed now.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 9, 2009 10:25 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I love these sims but...

If it were me programing the thing I’d weight the recent performance more heavily.

Personally, I think at this point in their respective careers, Weaver is the better starter.

Last years Beckett start was extremely frustrating for me as a fan to watch. He thru somthing like 55 pitches in the first two innings, was obviously struggling with his control and the Angels let him off the hook by swinging at every offering from the third inning on. I can’t see that happening tonight and I’m looking forward to this game.

by Jietoh on Oct 9, 2009 11:02 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Jietoh, that’s a very intersting topic and something I am definitely looking at fine tuning. But you don’t know if I have Weaver or Beckett projected as the better pitcher. I didn’t list my input projections. Those pitching numbers are the “output” numbers. For example, I could have Weaver projected as the better pitcher, but if the Red Sox offense was projected better than the Angels offense, you would see Weaver with worse numbers. I don’t have my input projection with me, but I do weight the more recent performance heavier. I guess the question becomes how heavy should you weight the most recent performance and how far back should you go. Anyways, good question. If somebody had the perfect answer (algorithm to correctly weight pitchers and hitters), they’d be rich.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 9, 2009 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ah, the old double post.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 9, 2009 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess I just assumed you had Beckett as the better pitcher because yesterday’s sim, with Lackey/Lester, you had the Sox’s favored by a smaller percentage.

As much as I hate to admit it, Lester IS the better pitcher so it follows…

by Jietoh on Oct 9, 2009 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs