The Angels Top 32 Prospect Performances, Beginning with Randal Grichuk
Time to kick off prospect season! Coverage of the 2010 top Angels' prospects begins with a look at the best statistical performances of 2009. Using the generally-accepted sabermetric assessment of a player's contributions, value-over-replacement-player ("VORP"), I ranked the Halos organization's top 32 minor league players of the year. Halosphere guru Sean Smith (baseballprojection and contributor to minorleaguesplits, baseballreference, hardballtimes, and fangraphs) gave me a peak at his 2009 Total Zone defensive calculations, which I incorporated into each player's final score. Thanks Sean! The +/- bat, +/- glove, and +/- runs saved figures are all in runs relative to the average player in the given prospect's league. I then applied positional and "value over replacement player" adjustments, which is why the +'s and -‘s don't correspond exactly with a player's ranking on the list. Simply put, guys who play everyday over a full season accrue the value they create over inferior players who would otherwise fill their spot. Guys who play skill positions - catcher, short, 2nd and 3rd - accrue more value than those who don't. Here are rankings # 32 to # 21. Numbers 11-20 and 1-10 will appear on Halos Heaven later this week.
32) Randal Grichuk, 18 - OF, Arizona Summer League.
.322/352/.551, 7 HR, 6 SB. +6 bat, +4 glove
The Halos' top pick of the '09 draft led the ASL in hits and triples, and ranked 2nd in total bases and extra base hits. BA labeled him the 5th best prospect in the ASL, trumpeting the power but expressing concerns about his glove, so it's great to see TotalZone rate him at +4 in the field.
31) Joshua Blanco, 19 - LH SP, Arizona Summer League
3 Wins, 2 Losses, 50.1 IP, 3.04 ERA, 63 K/13 BB. +11 runs saved.
The Halos drafted the 6'2" southpaw out of a Texas High School in the 6th round of the 2008 draft. Despite a solid pro debut, he was the forgotten man when the Halos brass put together the Cedar Rapids and Orem rotations. Blanco clearly mastered rookie league, but he's one of many talented arms under consideration for Cedar Rapids' 2010 rotation.
30) Bobby Wilson, 26 - C, AAA
.271/.316/.398, 8 HR. -7 bat, +9 glove
The bat regressed this year, but AAA managers still voted Wilson the best defensive catcher in the Pacific Coast League. Plus, he's got outstanding make-up and that all-around-good-guy thing going. The Halos catching situation is getting crowded, with Conger advancing to AAA and Carlos Ramirez potentially moving quickly behind him. Look for the Halos to make big decisions about their catching depth in the coming year.
29) Jean Segura, 19 - 2B, Pioneer Rookie League, AAA
.346/.392/.512, 3 HR, 11 SB. +9 bat, +0 glove
Tom Kotchman called the nineteen-year-old second baseman Orem's best position player, and told BA he might be "the best position player in the league." BA nevertheless ranked him only the league's sixth best prospect, but noted his offensive upside. TotalZone scored him just average at the keystone, so he's going to have to improve with the glove.
28) Efren Navarro, 23 - 1B, A+
.287/.360/.397, 5 HR, 3 SB. +0 bat, +10 glove
Efren Navarro is the definition of the average player. He put up a 101 OPS + in the Cal league, which would have made his bat entirely inadequate for first base had he not been so good with the glove.
27) Francisco Rodriguez, 26 - RH RP, AAA
5 wins, 4 losses, 77.1 IP, 3.96 ERA, 60 SO/40 BB. +9 runs saved.
The stats don't exactly jump off the page, but Rodriguez put in a slew of above-average innings in the unforgiving PCL. His stuff doesn't blow scouts away and his performance may have peaked this year, but let's give credit where credit is due: the Bees undoubtedly won more games with Rodriguez as a fixture in their pen. Maybe he'll get a cup of coffee next year.
26) Pil Joon Jang, 21 - RH SP, Arizona Rookie League
6 wins, 3 losses. 82.1 IP, 3.83 ERA, 72 K/10 BB. +8 runs saved.
Overshadowed by younger, flashier Fabio Martinez Mesa, Jang was the actual ace of the ASL Angels' staff, pitching more quality innings than any other starter. A 2007 scouting report described a good fastball sitting at 93 and solid slider, though I haven't seen any more recent reports. This summer was his pro debut after signing for $560,000 upon completing service with the Korean Army in September of 2008.
25) Carson Andrew, 21 - RH RP, Pioneer Rookie League
1 win, 0 losses. 50.1 IP, 2.68 ERA, 40 K/14 BB, +12 runs saved
Andrew was a 28th round pick in the June draft out of Jacksonville University. He was below average as a starter, but transitioned to the pen when Garrett Richards entered the Orem rotation. His stuff played well in relief: he put up a 1.48 ERA, induced lots of groundballs, and K'd nearly a batter an inning.
24) Gabriel Jacobo, 22 - 1B, A Ball
.257/.317/.427, 10 HR, 6 SB. +0 bat, +12 glove
The middling offensive numbers are a comedown after the .320/.338/.504 line Jacobo put up over 133 A-ball plate appearances last year, but let's focus on the positive: (1) he was a monster with the glove at first base, saving 12 runs according to TotalZone, and (2) he hit .285/.330/.488 after the All-star break. He's a solid all-around player who still has some upside left in his bat, especially if he can boost his walk rate.
23) Christopher Pettit, 24 - OF, AAA
.321/.383/.482, 8 HR, 18 SB. +14 bat, -2 glove
Ah, what might have been: Pettit carried a monster season into June, batting .371 with 27 extra-base hits, before an errant pitch broke his hamate bone. He returned in July, but was never quite the same, though he did collect his first two major league knocks in a September call-up. His ability to play a passable center could land him the 4th/5th outfielder role on the mlb club, though he'll have to show that he can overcome his platoon split against right-handed pitching (2009: 1.117 OPS against lefties / .772 OPS against righties. Career: .966 OPS against lefties / .876 OPS against righties).
22) Garret Richards, 21 - RH SP, Pioneer Rookie League
3 wins, 1 loss. 35.1 IP, 1.53 ERA, 30 K/4 BB. +15 runs saved
BA ranked Richards the fourth best prospect in the Pioneer League and labeled him a potential front-line starter due to his 93-94 mph fastball and complimentary arsenal of 3 average-to-plus offspeed pitches. His performance supported the aggressive ranking: he was an insane 15 runs above average in only 35 plus innings. Richards will likely head the Cedar Rapids rotation come April.
21) Manuel Flores, 22 - LH SP, A and High A
9 wins, 7 losses. 153.2 IP, 3.75 ERA, 93 K/26 BB. +5 runs saved.
Flores was just +5 runs above average on the season, but there's a lot of value in taking the ball every fifth day and generally going deep into games. He's a finesse lefty who's likely to hit a wall at the higher levels - indeed, he struggled in six Cal League starts to finish the season - but he still provided more quality innings than more highly-profiled rotation mates Will Smith, Ryan Chaffee, and Tyler Chatwood.
Honorable mentions:
- Matthew Sweeney ranked 31st on the list with a +14 bat and a bad-but-not-as-bad-as-expected minus 3 glove at the hot corner. He would have ranked much higher with a full season.
- Yancarlos Santiago is an intriguing DSL lefty who earned his way into the rotation midseason. He's old for the league and doesn't have a projectable frame, but did put up a decent K-rate and was +11 runs saved over 47 IP.
- Angel Castillo was a hair under average with a -4 bat, but played a great right field with a +10 glove. Fangraphs applies a much bigger park adjustment to Cedar Rapids than I did, so he'd rank higher in other systems. Regardless, there's a lot to like with his massive power and speed potential, but he still has to figure out the strikezone.
- Mark Trumbo scored +8 with the bat and +0 with the glove. Trumbo has never done well in runs-based scoring systems like this, because they don't give much credit to corner guys with less-than-stellar defense and patience, despite their ability to drive in runs. The optimist will say, "Kendry Morales never ranked highly in runs-created-based scoring systems either, and look at him now." The pessimist will say, "yeah, but Trumbo still hasn't hit .300 anywhere, and his right-handed bat puts him on the wrong side of platoon splits most of the time." You decide.
- Fabio Martinez Mesa ranks way down the list due to the shockingly high number of unearned runs he gave up (his unearned runs total a full 33% of his total runs allowed). At any rate, you'll be hearing plenty about him when organizational best prospect lists come out, so don't dwell too much on his low ranking here.
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I saw Segura's first hit in Triple A!
And because of it, I followed him via internet for the rest of the season and couldn’t believe how well he did considering that he started in Rookie Ball? Any reason for the massive jump other than he just kicks ass?
What are the chances of him staying in Triple A next year? At only 19, he has a lot of time to develop before getting a chance on the big squad. I’m definitely keeping an eye on him.
Also, what are thoughts of Freddy Sandoval’s chances at making the big leagues in the next year or two?
Do it for Nick '09
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Nov 1, 2009 3:29 PM PST reply actions
The Halos FO likes to give some of its favorite young guys a taste of full season league before the rookie leagues start up. As I recall, Buddy Boshers and Baudilio Lopez both got the same treatment in April. I bet Segura stays on the level-by-level plan. He’s young, and the Halos have tons of depth at 2B, so I’m pretty sure he heads to Cedar Rapids for 2010. He’s got to work on his D.
Would love to see Sandoval get Q’s job. Our lineup next year leans pretty heavily to the right side, so having a switch-hitting role player who can play plus D at the corners AND play a decent 2B will be valuable. He’s slightly better from the right side, but brings gap power, some patience, and good contact ability to the field. He’s similar to Shane Victorino, minus most of the SB’s.
I don't understand your last comment on Mesa.
How can “unearned runs” be considered in the total of “earned runs”? Or am I mis-interpreting what you wrote?
Sorry - the total number of unearned runs that he gave up was equal to half of the number of earned runs he gave.
They did not contribute to the sum.
It’s a bizarrely high number, and has me (1) taking another look at his very, very low hits allowed total, trying to decide whether his BAA and ERA are unduly influenced by luck with scorekeepers calling balls in play errors, or whether he’s simply unlucky according to this method of determining a player’s value; and (2) shrugging. He’s an outlier and no model of the baseball world is perfect – these rankings are just one more input into determining the value of our prospects.
Thanks for the clarification.
I did mis-read your comment. Anyway, that is a strangely high numbers of earned runs vs. unearned runs. Weird.
Hey rghan, minorleagueball.com
is putting together the Angels top 20 prospects. Has Mr. Sickels tried to contact you? If not I think you should put in some input and make sure the list is worth it.
First we had a Salmon and now we have a Trout, let's see the same results.
Saw that
And no, John has not contacted me :-) He’s been doing this a lot longer than I have, and he has his own statistical tools for analyzing performance, so I’m very eager to see his list. I’m especially curious about what he has to say about Alexia Amarista, since his performance blew away any previous scouting reports.
Oh alright.
Yeah i’m excited to see the list too.
First we had a Salmon and now we have a Trout, let's see the same results.
by angelskid2210 on Nov 2, 2009 7:03 AM PST up reply actions
Great stuff, thanks!
I saw Trumbo take infield practice for a half-hour in spring training, and based mostly on that I concluded he’ll never play 1B good enough for the majors.
They may have him play mostly in RF at Salt Lake
It will be interesting to see what his D looks like out there – maybe he peaks at Rivera-esq after a year’s worth of reps? Trumbo’s got a good arm.
Correction
Minorleaguespits.com is run by Jeff Sackmann. Sean Smith runs baseballprojection.com.
The HK-47 hitting droid is the finest line drive machine ever built
Ahh, but totalzone provides minorleaguesplits with their key defensive stats.
I’ll make the correction.
Great Job as usual
Does the fact that Grichuk is showing up so low on this list count as indicative of anything at this point (overdraft)? And would you have him higher based on growth/potential (i.e. we know what we’re getting with Bobby Wilson at this point)?
Richards also seems like a particularly intriguing prospect. Any reason why he slipped to bottom of the first if he has such great stuff?
Lastly, do you think you can do a quick blurb/overview about Mesa, particularly if he’s going to be hot discussion topic? I honestly haven’t heard much about the guy.
Would not worry about Grichuk's place on this list
He had a very good debut, showing only that he has some work to do in mastering the strike zone. He’s “low” in these rankings mainly because he was in a short season league, do did not have the time to compile counting stats like the older guys.
These numbers are also NOT age adjusted – keep in mind that he was above average with both the bat and the glove against competition averaging over two years his senior. When it comes time to do true “best prospects” lists, he’ll be right up there.
Richards slipped because he had a rotten ’09 season in college as far as performance goes. Something like a 5.50 ERA and way too many walks. The Halos drafted him based on stuff over performance, betting that they could smooth out the rough edges. So far, so good.
Fabio was a member of our very good ‘08 DSL rotation. There was actually little to separate him that year, performance wise, from Baudilio Lopez and Ariel Pena (Orangel Arenas is an older, different type of pitcher), but this year he is taking off. Mid 90’s fastball, tall projectable frame, and a promising slider. His control needs a lot of work, but he looks comparable to Ervin Santana. BA ranked him the second best prospect in the ASL, and he’s shown up high, around 9-12, on most of the preliminary Angels’ prospect rankings I’ve seen so far. He’ll get a lot of press as the offseason wears on.
How do you compile your numbers, as opposed to TotalZone?
http://sodomojo.com/
by .Taylor on Nov 1, 2009 9:24 PM PST reply actions
Offensive numbers come from a generic runs created formula, are adjusted with a simple park factor, and then compared to league average runs to get a +/- compared to average. I then do a standard replacement level adjustment (20 runs over a whole season) and a positional adjustment.
Pitching numbers come from another generic, easily accessible formula that compares a pitcher’s runs allowed per game to the league average. I apply the same park adjustments that I used for the hitters. There are some minor tweaks depending on whether the player is a starter or a reliever, and then a replacement level adjustment on top of that, but it’s actually a pretty easy process.
Catcher defense is the least scientific – I needed to publish before the catcher totalzone numbers for catchers were crunched, so based on (1) scouting reports and (2) feel for run values that baseball prospectus and other defensive metrics assign similar catchers. It’s a placeholder until I can get the totalzone score. Wilson’s, Ramirez’, and Conger’s rankings may then change somewhat, though I’m pretty sure that adjustment will be minor.
Just got the Totalzone numbers for catchers
I was one off on Wilson – he’s +9 with the glove – and 2 off for Conger, who was a bit better than the -3 glove that I used in my original rankings. I blew it on Ramirez, who put up a much better season according to Total Zone than I had imagined. In a short season, he came in at +8.
Rghan - thanks for this..........
I never really followed the minors as much before this year…..but with your reports Im truly excited to follow our drafted guys as they progress.
Keep up the great work.
Pass the chocolate cake!
by norcaliangelsfan on Nov 2, 2009 1:05 PM PST reply actions



























