CHONE Projections Up

Sean Smith makes two gigantic annual contributions to the baseball-loving community: his CHONE projections, historically the most accurate projection system for MLB players in the upcoming season, and his TotalZone defensive metrics, which were featured here on Halosheaven over the past two weeks. The 2010 CHONE projections are now available at Sean's website, www.baseballprojection.com. Check these out if you want to dominate your fantasy league!

3 months ago rghan 8 comments 0 recs |

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CHONE projections...

So I should take Figgy in my fantasy league (if I bothered with a fantasy league)?

Angels baseball. We do what we must, because we can -- HaloDutch

by red floyd on Nov 16, 2009 1:02 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Sweet! No Angel with a .300 BA or over 100 ribbies...

ugh….

Do it for Nick '09

by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Nov 16, 2009 1:14 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

But how many grand slams will the Angels hit next year?

Inquiring minds must know!

For some offseason fun, check out the Mac & Windows Space Shooter game I helped make: Insectoid

by AlanFalcon on Nov 16, 2009 1:38 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

$20 sez < 4

Had I owned the Pittsburgh Pirates, I could have saved America.

by Stirrups on Nov 16, 2009 2:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think it's funny

That figgins has 80 walks and 96 strikeouts…He mustve had a MAJOR lapse in his eye…even through he only plays 135 games

"Figgins' OBP is still over 40!" -Steve Physioc

by Figgi4life on Nov 16, 2009 3:15 PM PST via mobile reply actions 0 recs

Basically a copy/paste for Kendrick from 09 to 10

and Suddenly Abreu is OPSing .774, Morales damn near falls off a cliff, and no Angels hitter OPS’s over .840 in regular time?

I call a load of bullshit.

by Caseys Kiss of Death on Nov 16, 2009 3:15 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

It's funny

Everyone is rightly noting how less-than-optimal these projections are, but when I saw them, I thought, “we’re moving up in the sabermetric world!” As pessimistic as these numbers are, they are nowhere close to how low projection systems tagged our guys last year.

It’s not just Sean’s projections – no system has been optimistic about the Halos’ offensive potential for years. To go a step further, it’s not just the Angels: most systems tend to set a lower mean projections than feel right for everyone but the superstars and OBP/Slg machines. I guess it’s the nature of regression analysis, combined with the conservative nature of their designers.

by rghan on Nov 16, 2009 3:33 PM PST reply actions 0 recs