Should the Angels make a play for Josh Johnson?

by George Kaplan on Nov 22, 2009 8:14 AM PST

The cost in prospects would be steep--almost certainly Reckling and/or Walden, plus two or three other players. Kendrick might have to be included to allow the Marlins the ability to then trade Uggla. This wouldn't be cherry-picking in any way.

The Miami Herald is reporting that talks between the Marlins and Johnson's agent broke off because the Marlins wouldn't guarantee a 4th year, while Johnson wanted something resembling what Greinke signed with the Royals ($38M/4 yrs), which would buy out the two remaining years of arbitration plus the first two of free agency.

Johnson will be just 26 when Spring Training begins, so a 4 year deal would still be within his prime years, unlike a 5 year deal for Lackey. Johnson had Tommy John surgery in 2007, and this past season represented the beginning of the time when a player is supposed to show the benefits of that procedure. It wasn't just that Johnson was 15-7 last year, but that some of his NDs were heartbreaking; he could have easily won 20 with an offense to support him. Like Kazmir, he saw some high pitch counts by the 6th or 7th innings in many of his starts, but that is often something which fixes itself as the pitcher matures and becomes a smarter player.

At 6'7" and 240, he's an imposing figure standing on the mound. The downside to being that tall is that a small quirk in delivery can make a huge problem in the outcome, so a pitching coach needs constant vigilance to ensure that the mechanics are sound.

Should the Angels make a move to lock up a young talent, knowing it will cost them talent as well? Would he become the cornerstone of a rotation for years to come? Is it smarter to pursue established starters like Halliday and Lackey, whose prime years may largely be gone, or to roll the dice on an impressive young player with huge upside?

This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.

Tweet Comment 37 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

GK

Absolutely read my mind. I get to see him a good deal out here in NL East country, and have been impressed with nearly every start. I don’t know what it would take to acquire him, but asking the Fish sure wouldn’t hurt.

1 line siggy line because I was asked nicely. Go Angels! helpfindscottajob@gmail.com

by Slasher52 on Nov 22, 2009 8:19 AM PST reply actions

Forgot to mention

Johnson is better than Kazmir (not counting the playoff debacle either).

1 line siggy line because I was asked nicely. Go Angels! helpfindscottajob@gmail.com

by Slasher52 on Nov 22, 2009 8:22 AM PST up reply actions

Isnt he busy holding a clipboard for the Buccaneers?

Pass the chocolate cake!

by norcaliangelsfan on Nov 22, 2009 8:59 AM PST reply actions

It must be hell to be a Florida sportswriter

"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon

by George Kaplan on Nov 22, 2009 12:03 PM PST up reply actions

Yes

by mustard_man on Nov 22, 2009 11:11 AM PST reply actions

Make the call!

These are the players you go after!

Hula Dula loves those nuts!

by Kyman on Nov 22, 2009 12:10 PM PST reply actions

Interesting suggestion, George

Johnson would be a welcome addition to almost any team:
Only 26 yrs old
All-Star
Career ERA+ of 126 in 76 career starts
Fangraphs estimated his value at $24.6MM last year

Florida seems to make some very shrewd trades – we will almost certainly have to give them something of significant value that still fits their budget. So, yes, it is likely we would have to part with both Walden and Reckling to accomplish this.

However, this WOULD save Arte the hassle of ~~resigning~~ re-signing Big John, thereby allowing him to pursue Chone. Which would allow Brandon to be included in this trade, instead.

Pursue him? Yes, absolutely. At any cost? No. But be prepared to give up a lot….

"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you." - Woody Hayes

by johnnyangel101 on Nov 22, 2009 1:50 PM PST reply actions

I'd give up

Walden and Kendrick. If they wanted an OF’r, I wouldn’t budge with Pettit or Bourjos, instead throwing in their choice of Willits (unlikely) or Evans (a quicker Cody Ross on the cheap?).

www.13stoploss.com

by feNOMINAL on Nov 22, 2009 1:53 PM PST reply actions

I'd give up Pettit

by Sethy on Nov 22, 2009 2:45 PM PST up reply actions

I don't think trading Kendrick would be a good idea

by ryanfea on Nov 23, 2009 1:55 PM PST up reply actions

Yeah, I want to see him hit his prime as an Angel.

They want power. We want respect...

by SenorChuckles on Nov 23, 2009 2:56 PM PST up reply actions

He would command a package as big as Felix or Halladay

rather wait til he’s a free agent

RIP Nick Adenhart

by ihearhowie2.0 on Nov 22, 2009 2:45 PM PST reply actions

More risk than Halliday, more talent than Felix

I figure he’d come somewhere in the middle.

Halliday is a known quantity—while his best seasons have likely been played, he still has something in the tank and has become a better pitcher with age.

Felix is still temperamental but I am not sold on either his durability nor his ability to rise above the level he’s at currently.

"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon

by George Kaplan on Nov 22, 2009 3:03 PM PST up reply actions

Felix absolutely dominated last year

And hes still young. I think it finally clicked for him.

If I had a choice right now between Felix and Johnson I would go for Josh in a heartbeat.

My List:

-Queeny put up betters numbers in a offensively superior league.
-Is younger.
-Hasnt had Tommy Johns.
-Has a cooler nickname.
-I would rather have Hanley from the Marlins (give them GMJ and Quinlan)

I brought sexy back, but they only gave me store credit....

by PhiSlamma on Nov 22, 2009 4:01 PM PST up reply actions

Seriously, was he talking about Felix Mantilla?

Felix Hernandez is just hitting his prime, has been fairly durable and his past inconsistencies are probably because he was a pretty young guy entering the league.

I doubt the M’s would deal him, but any contender should be willing to trade for him and lock him up for nearly a decade.

Or is Kendry perhaps the one who needs to sit?

by BBFan1 on Nov 22, 2009 5:07 PM PST up reply actions

Nope, Felix Hernandez

Yes, he was great last season. He was also 9-11 in 2008, and it is difficult to say the Mariners were demonstrably better in 2009 than in 2008.

That’s all I’m saying. We’ve all seen pitchers who had phenomenal seasons, then faded as the years went by. Sometimes, it is because of nagging injuries, sometimes it is a failure to develop and adjust as the league catches up with the pitcher.

We’ll see with Hernandez—maybe he is the next great pitcher for the five years to come.

BTW, I wouldn’t be concerned about Johnson having had a Tommy John surgery. It is quite commonplace among pitchers these days, even with pitchers having the procedure done proactively—Nick Adenhart had TJ done to him before he was drafted by the Angels.

And I fully expect the Mariners to trade Hernandez before he hits his free agency. Whether it happens this season (if the Ms go in the toilet before the trade deadline) or next Winter, it will happen.

"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon

by George Kaplan on Nov 22, 2009 6:49 PM PST up reply actions

Ya, don't think he has more talent than Felix.

by Sethy on Nov 22, 2009 4:53 PM PST up reply actions

don't trust NL pitchers

but I mean he looks real good. Pretty dominant. I like him. If a deal can be made that would be sweet

Aybar is a nowhere man, Sitting in his Nowhere Land, Making all his nowhere plans for nobody.

by princeton11loveshalos on Nov 22, 2009 3:01 PM PST reply actions

why not

I like the idea of having our oldest SP pitcher being under 30. If we could swing it without giving up someone who`s already in the rotation, I`d do it. Even if it means losing Howie. Even without Uggla we could replace HK. I like Howie, but Izzy is also dope. Guys like Walden or Bell may turn out to be great too, but at least we`d most likely get a number of good years out of Johnson.

No matter what happens from here on, it has been a great season.

by Rally Manatee on Nov 22, 2009 6:39 PM PST via mobile reply actions

If not Lackey

There has to be a fallback plan. Sheets, Pineiro, or a trade should be at the top of the list

by mustard_man on Nov 23, 2009 6:51 AM PST reply actions

Did anyone listen to the Drive on Friday?

Jeff and producer Jason were talking about perhaps sending Juan Rivera to San Francisco, who would be an upgrade over John Bowker in Left, for Matt Cain. They pointed out that Cain’s contract is up at the end of the year and the Giants couldn’t afford to to re-sign Cain and Sanchez.

RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09

I blog about the Angels at The Diamond Aces

by Jay Cal on Nov 23, 2009 10:08 AM PST up reply actions

So the Giants needs are...

OF, C, SP? Didnt they want to get rid of Rowand?

They want power. We want respect...

by SenorChuckles on Nov 23, 2009 3:01 PM PST up reply actions

Maybe I'm off

But they have a pitcher with an expiring contract who they can’t afford. If they offer him ARB and he accepts it will hurt The Giants financially. Rivera has a cheap contract and if I’m not mistaken is signed through 2012. They might be happy to trade Rivera for Cain straight up to save money. But if there is another piece we’d have to give up, perhaps either Buddie or Wilson so that Conger moves up the dept chart.

Then if we do trade Napoli to Toronto, big IF, Mathis will catch full-time with either Buddie or Wilson to back him up. And Conger moving up to AAA.

RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09

I blog about the Angels at The Diamond Aces

by Jay Cal on Nov 24, 2009 7:54 AM PST up reply actions

I know you said big IF,

but I would wanna hold onto Naps because the prospect of Vlad leaving seems as inevitable as Lackey. And Naps would make a fine DH.

Nick would be proud.

by halofan4life on Nov 24, 2009 8:14 AM PST up reply actions

True.

But worse case scenario, with all of those proposed deals, you put Abreu at DH and that would create an outfield of LF – Willits, CF – Hunter, RF – Gary Matthews Jr. Willits would could hit #9. And I might be mistaken, but at one point, wasn’t Matthews a #2 hitter for the Angels? Didn’t he bat lead off on occasion, when Figgy was hurt?

RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09

I blog about the Angels at The Diamond Aces

by Jay Cal on Nov 24, 2009 8:23 AM PST up reply actions

Matthews was signed to leadoff,

becuase Figgy wasn’t a true top of the order guy then. And that outfield adds speed, no doubt, but doesn’t improve the defense. While Matthews has a decent arm, both im and Willits take bad routes thus reducing their range. Rivera had the 2nd best UZR for LF last year at 13.6. Maybe Willits + mid level filler + mid level with high upside/top end prospect could get it done.

And going back to this:

But they have a pitcher with an expiring contract who they can’t afford.

Cain’s only 24, wouldn’t that be bringing him INTO his arbitration years?

Nick would be proud.

by halofan4life on Nov 24, 2009 8:42 AM PST up reply actions

I am not sure

Its just what I heard on the Ray-Did-E-O.

RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09

I blog about the Angels at The Diamond Aces

by Jay Cal on Nov 24, 2009 9:41 AM PST up reply actions

Cain

Cain’s only 24, wouldn’t that be bringing him INTO his arbitration years?

He has a contract paying him for 2010 with club option for 2011, totalling $10.5M. Add $2M to that figure if he starts 32 games or tosses more than 210 IP in 2010.

This deal bought out his arb years. This would be akin to the Athletics trading Haren with cheap years left on an existing deal, rather than waiting until the July deadline of his final season under contract.

It will cost players (plural) to get Cain, not just someone like Rivera.

"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon

by George Kaplan on Nov 24, 2009 9:46 AM PST up reply actions

GK -- you've got great insight

So what kind of package would land Cain?

And would you make that move?

RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09

I blog about the Angels at The Diamond Aces

by Jay Cal on Nov 24, 2009 9:47 AM PST up reply actions

I'm the last person you'd ask for advice

Frankly, I don’t know the specific needs for the Giants (though it figures they would want someone who can hit the ball out and drive in runs, other than the Panda).

Cain is intriguing, but he wouldn’t be the first priority. I think Reagins needs to exhaust his efforts on Halladay first, because he is the only game-changer out there. Plans B include guys like Cain, Johnson, Sheets and others, but presume we’re not looking for an ace but instead are seeking a cost-effective #2-5.

The devil is always in the details, and the devil in this case would be the reciprocal cost. For example, a guy like Sheets costs us nothing (not even draft picks) while Johnson or Cain would require a trade package. The Giants don’t NEED to trade Cain and the Marlins don’t NEED to trade Johnson, so it would take a steep package in return (assuming the GMs aren’t complete morons).

Halladay would be the most expensive of all, but carry the least risk and the highest reward.

"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon

by George Kaplan on Nov 24, 2009 12:58 PM PST up reply actions

Then we do agree about the posibility of a Plan B.

that Cain is a great Plan B Candidate, with Halladay obviously being the pretty girl before Prom. Off the top of my head 4 suitors, including the Angels, are making their advance at the Blue Jays.

Although I can’t remember specifically where I read it, the Giants are looking to shed payroll. My entire premise is based on that. If that assumption is wrong then forget my entire rant about Cain.

RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09

I blog about the Angels at The Diamond Aces

by Jay Cal on Nov 24, 2009 3:17 PM PST up reply actions

Giants

Although I can’t remember specifically where I read it, the Giants are looking to shed payroll.

I don’t doubt that you read that. The management of the Giants is like a psycho ex-girlfriend, who is sweet and lovey one day and cutting up your clothes the next. The ownership will tell the fans they’re interested in certain high-profile free agents and are seeking to address specific needs on the team (offense, defense, and offense).

Then, when the time comes to pull the trigger, they back off. The problem with the Giants is that, while the team has only $57M guaranteed in deals for 2010, that money goes to a total of 6 players, with more than half of it going to two (Zito and Rowand). The Giants have written deals which make the one held by GMJ seem sensible, with way too much money given to Zito, Rowand and Renteria. Zito is absolutely untradeable, with $83M owed to him over the next 5 seasons. Rowand is to get over $40M from them over the next three years, and has done absolutely nothing for the team, offensively or defensively. Renteria has $10.5M due to him for next season and the buyout of his 2011 season.

This team can’t afford much. I think they’d like to sign Linsecum to a long-term deal and buy out his arb years, but the 2nd Cy made him more expensive and they most likely won’t do anything until next winter; for 2010 he figures to get more than the $10M received by Ryan Howard and Frankie.

So, yeah, maybe it does make sense to them to trade Cain and the $10M or so he’s owed for the next two seasons and load up on good, cheap talent, saving money for Linsecum’s extension in 2011.

"He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with''~Theo Epstein, talking about Papelbon

by George Kaplan on Nov 25, 2009 4:38 AM PST up reply actions

My badness

I was unaware of the fact that his arb years were bought out. Show’s how much I pay attention to guys other than Tim Lincecum when it comes to the Giants.

Nick would be proud.

by halofan4life on Nov 24, 2009 9:05 PM PST up reply actions