Lackey and Figgins Only Angels Offered Arbitration
by Rev Halofan on Dec 1, 2009 5:21 PM PST
in Angels News
51 comments
The Angels offered arbitration to 2 of their 4 arbitration eligible free agent players, John Lackey and Chone Figgins, even though free agents Darren Oliver and Vladimir Guerrero would have brought them compensation (in the form of sandwich and 2nd round picks) should they have been offered arbitration and declined it before signing with another team.
This info is according to Mark Polishuk at MLB TRADE RUMORS.
If Lackey and Figgins sign with other teams, the Angels could reap a bounty of compensation picks in the 2010 June draft. The risk at offering Oliver and Guerrero arbitration would have been that salary raises are based on increasing the previous year's take and both players were making a peak income in 2009 based on the current market for their services. Both Guerrero and Oliver could still be signed by the Angels.
Figgins and Lackey have until Monday to accept or reject the offer of arbitration. Bet you a dollar that they both turn it down. Free agents Kelvim Escobar and Robb Quinlan performed below the compensation threshold and were not involved in this ancient offseason ritual.
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does that mean
oliver and vlad if signed elsewhere we get no comp pick?
Confidence breeds success, self-doubt breeds failure
Yep. I get the rationale on Guerrero, but not on Oliver.
Guerrero could be costly, but DO, not so much.
Oliver either re-signs, or retires
So, compensation’s not much of an issue. I think that’s the thinking.
Hope So
I believe they offered him arb last year before ultimately working out a deal, so I don’t see why they wouldn’t this year unless they have some reasonable assurance from him that he will not go elsewhere. Offering him arbitration is essentially risk free: the worst that can happen is that he’s around for one more year.
Maybe they foresee him declining over the next year and not being worth as much as they would have to pay him.
Still, doesn’t make tons of sense, though.
RIP Nick Adenhart.
"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5
But what's the risk in Option B?
So, the Angels offer him arbitration, he accepts, and they probably negotiate a deal before ever making it to arbitration, much as last year.
Or, he gets picked up by, say, Texas, who is reported to be very interested in him. Oliver was hit by the Stanford ponzi scheme and could probably use a final paycheck. He lives in Texas, and began his career in that organization. Why take the risk of the Rangers scooping him up scot-free?
The risk is overpaying for front-end bullpen guy who just had a career year at 38
I’d offer him arb, personally, since I heart draft picks, but the Angels’ thinking here isn’t insane.
Not insane, just a bad bet from both a economic...
…and game theory perspective.
I thought Victor Wang’s analysis of draft pick value earlier this year was a good one. If you consider each Type A draft pick worth $3-5M, as Wang does, then the upside is very good, while the risk is very small.
Best case scenario for him, Oliver nets $5M for one year in arbitration. Angels overpay by a million or two, perhaps. If he signs elsewhere, Halos could net twice that in draft value. But not offering arbitration at all, they get zero draft value, save only marginal cost if they re-sign him, and otherwise may encourage Oliver to shop around, no love lost.
lackey... no contest
when it comes to choosing between a leadoff hitter and a staff ace… its an easy choice
Is he an "ace"?
A career ERA nearer 4 than 3, a player on the wrong side of 30 asking for six or seven years, and two consecutive seasons of injuries putting him on the DL for 4-6 wks. If he’s an ace, there must be a relatively broad range of aces. He feels more like a Kevin Millwood type of “ace” at this point. In fact, Baseball Reference shows Kevin Millwood as the top comp for John Lackey of any historical pitcher through age 30.
If offering Kevin Millwood six-seven years at $16-18M per is a “no contest” no-brainer, maybe the recession never happened. Paying that much for a pitcher of John’s makeup looks like a fairly high risk, low reward gamble to me.
Nowhere have I seen him "asking for six or seven years," outside of this blog comment
I think the idea is that the last five years show his “true” talent level going forward, which means 30 starts per w/ an ERA of 3.5, and a bulldog mentality. I think there’s reason to doubt he’ll replicate that the next five years, but it’s within the realm of possibility.
But do you really invest in "the realm of possibility"?
Or do you consider the most realistic comps, look at recent health tendencies, and consider how a player is likely to age in his mid-thirties? You’re simply more bullish than I am on these guys. You were rather snide when I suggested Vlad could lose his Type-A status several months ago, and while Lackey retained his, Vlad became a Type B.
As far as six-to-seven years goes, much of the analysis I’ve read states that Lackey considers his opening benchmark to be Burnett’s five-year, $82.5M deal. If that’s his benchmark (already $16M+ per), then why is it unrealistic to think the market (very shallow in strong starting pitching) nets him one or two more years?
Well, you know, Millwood's a good pitcher
I agree with you that Lackey is not a super-elite pitcher. But he’s been very good for five years, and seems to have the kind of body/arm that is likely to age as well as anyone else’s. My wish in signing him is simply that it gives us a great starting 5, while retaining a team leader, while costing nothing except for money.
That said, his K rate is declining, aging is rarely a pretty process, and every pitcher on this planet is one arm injury away from making a 5-year deal look foolish.
Thanks for the links to the maybe-six-years stuff. I think it’s extremely unlikely anyone offers him 6, and if they do, bye-bye. I’d take 4 w/ a club option, knowing that it could all go pear-shaped.
Agreed, Millwood's good.
Just not Burnett money good, not at John’s age. If it only took 3-4 years and $40-50M total to sign John, count me in. But I think it will take more.
For my money, I’d rather the Angels spend on the 2011 free market crowd, which contains some really good starting pitchers. I find contracts like Escobar’s, with so much continual promise, and so much continual disappointment, to be instructional. I just think long contracts for starting pitchers in their thirties rarely pay off.
I wish the Halos would be a little more Beane-ish this off-season, and take short-contract risks on Harden types. If we’re going to tolerate injury risk, let’s keep the time window small, and the upside as high as possible. I want to see money in the bank when the market’s really good.
As for being "rather snide"...
You wrote back then:
At the moment, Vlad and Lackey are falling out of Type A status.
Based on time on the field, which they’ve been spending less and less of.
I pointed out that, actually, they’d been spending more and more time on the field. It’s true that I did not send flowers with that note, but who cares?
But more time on the field compared to what?
My comment was simply pointing out that (1) based on the Elias projections, Lackey and Vlad were nearing the pivot point of A and B, and (2) much of that was due to decreased playing time because of injuries.
Taken in the context of Elias projections (two years), yeah, they’d spent less and less time on the field, compared to previous years. You interpreted my comment in the unusually narrow sense of time spent on the field in the, say, the past month — which, sure, seemed a bit of a hair-trigger comment, and yes, a little snide in tone.
If I “cared” all that much, I wouldn’t continue to try to have productive conversation with you. I have a reasonably good memory, and while I’m not trying to win friends or enemies here, if I’m brushed back, given my mood at the minute, I may ignore it or may bark back. I take mental notes, engage the more informed posters here, and that’s the it of it.
Some context.
Word is that the Yankees probably will be willing to repeat A.J. Burnett’s $82.5 million, five-year contract for Lackey. Although, one person close to Lackey — whose offer to stay with the Angels this spring was for less than $40 million over three years on top of this year’s $10 million salary — indicated the longtime Angels right-hander sees himself in a higher echelon than Burnett.
Even then, (Moreno) might not consider any free agent looking for a contract beyond four years. Lackey is believed to have set the contract to which the New York Yankees last winter signed pitcher A.J. Burnett — five years, $82.5 million — as a starting point for his negotiations.
“A lot of people are looking for five- and six-year contracts,” Moreno said, speaking generally. “I’m not interested in making what I would consider a long-term contract unless we feel it’s for a franchise player. There are very few franchise players out there.”
ESPN:
Estimates on Lackey’s deal ranged from a low of three years, $36 million to highs of five years, $95 million and six years, $100 million. ..Three executives cited Burnett’s five-year, $82.5 million contract with the Yankees as a barometer for Lackey…
The six-year estimate has been floated in a lot of high-profile publications. It may be at the upper end of the market, but the best pitcher on the market got six years at 23M per last year. It’s not a stretch to figure Lackey may get six at 16-18M in a shallower pool.
Disagree Expo
If that leadoff hitter is CHONE FIGGINS. Don’t get me wrong - I love the mental toughness Lackey’ brings to the table and I do value his leadership. That being said, we have pitchers such as Weaver and Saunders who possess similar traits and could easily step-up to fill the role of staff ace. In fact, I can see Weaver becoming a top five pitcher in the bigs over the next two-three years. He’s almost there right now -’ that’s how much I think of Weaver. In addition, we do NOT have anyone to step in and do everything that FIGGY does for us. Those who propose moving Aybar into that slot are quite misguided in thinking he’s suited to that role. Aybar swings at far too many borderline and bad pitches and simply lacks the requisite plate discipline to be a top notch leadoff hitter. I love his overall game, but Aybar is not a leadoff hitter.
Disagree Expo
Wow. Somebody line out half of my response to you and it got moved way below — don’t know how that happened???/
Anyway, as I say below we have a couple of promising arms in Weaver and Saunders who are ready to step up and become staff leaders if necessary. That’s not to say I wouldn’t want John around — I do. His mental toughness, experience and leadership are quite valuable. That being said, Weaver could become a top 5 pitcher in MLB over the next 2-3 years (he’s very close right now).That would potentially soften the loss of Lackey. Figgins, on the other hand, would not be so easily replaced. Aybar is not suited to the leadoff spot. He lacks the requisite plate discipline and swings at far too many borderline and bad pitches to do a good job there. I like his overall game but he is NOT comparable to Chone Figgins as a leadoff hitter. He’s never been given the chance you say? I answer: there’s a reason that he hasn’t been given that chance.
those dashes function as an html strike-thru command
personally … I use three dots like Ferdinand Celine
I thought my work was being edited...
Is there a function key that does that?. I’ve never used that feature in over 800 comments so I wouldn’t start now. Perhaps I accidentally hit a key combination or function key?
He just said that the dashed become a strikethrough command.
And nobody moved your post… as we’ve repeatedly attempted to explain, simply clicking the arrow by your post will show you which post you responded to. And the indentation level also shows you which post you responded to. There are posts between yours and the one you responded to because they also responded to it, and they did so before you did.
If you don’t like the strike-through that you accidentally created, use the “preview” option before you post and you will see if you accidentally did it again, and then you can fix it before posting.
For some offseason fun, check out the Mac & Windows Space Shooter game I helped make: Insectoid
Almost inviting someone to sign Vladdie and Oliver.
Teams possibly signing Figgins and Lackey would be higher up on the food chain, meaning lower draft picks………….lower signing bonuses.
The Angels would probably not mind either of Lackey and Figgins for one more year, but not extended contracts.
Anyone know...
… if Ollie is comfortable with his salary? Perhaps he’ll be back at the same rate, and as a member of the bullpen, is selflessly allowing his raise money to go elsewhere?
Sure, a raise would be nice, but making the playoffs EVERY year for that extra raise kind of makes up for it a bit, no?
www.13stoploss.com
i think we should've offered vlad arb
regardless of how costly it would be.
worst thing that would happen is vlad comes back for another year.
"come on, eileen."
wow.
the la times blog says that it would be close to 15 mil… i didn’t know it was that high.
i take it back. i thought that it would be like 8 mil or something.
"come on, eileen."
Heard it on the Drive. $12M is the *minimum* the Angels can offer him in arb.
Angels baseball. We do what we must, because we can -- HaloDutch
I love Vlad ...
… but he GOT TO GO! Put him on the bus with Hud, Phyz, Q and … if there is room, Kazmir.
2010: The year of Angels World Domination
Yeah, I love how people see two bad playoff appearances
And automatically forget the 260 ERA+ over his regular season starts with us…which, mind you, is just ten points below Pedro Martinez in his prime…smaller sample size, sure, but screaming for Kazmir’s head is completely f—-ing ridiculous.
RIP Nick Adenhart.
"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5
by Clutch on Dec 1, 2009 7:27 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
thank you.
if i didn’t know anything about baseball, i’d think kaz was the worst pitcher on our staff and that we had so many other options or something.
"come on, eileen."
Haha, true.
RIP Nick Adenhart.
"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5
He had a great couple of games
With the Angels before the postseason. But yeah, thats one of the big reasons why we got him because he was a “good playoff pitcher”.
When Kazmir wins 17 games next year with an ERA under 3 with a ton of strikeouts
I think you’ll change your tune, lazorkorules
by ryanfea on Dec 1, 2009 7:55 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs
Kaz will win a Cy Young next year.
im calling it.
They want power. We want respect...
by SenorChuckles on Dec 1, 2009 9:52 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I'll crawl onto that tiny bandwagon.
For some offseason fun, check out the Mac & Windows Space Shooter game I helped make: Insectoid
Lackey I guess, but I'll take restocking the farm.
I like how they drafted this year so next year could be fun too. And call me optimistic, but I think our pitching staff will be fine without Lackey, if it has to be so.
Happy Birthday to the ground!
Restock the farm.
get Halladay and give GMJ a try at OF again, because i doubt we get Vlad, Bay, or Granderson this offseason. GMJ is a good dude, give the man another shot at being in the lineup everyday. I know im going to get shit for this. :(
They want power. We want respect...
Yeah, the dude's got 2 years left
If we know we ain’t gonna get shit for him anyway, what’s the harm in giving GMJ a bunch of at-bats early in the season and then DFA—ing him if/when it doesn’t work out? At worst, you get the same return on the trade you would get right now—which is to say, nothing.
RIP Nick Adenhart.
"When the Babe tries to call his shot, I hope Nick puts one in his ear."
--RallyMonkey5
I think Matthews
is a viable option to play LF if Abreu becomes a full-time DH and you’d move Rivera to Right. But if Rivera becomes trade bait in a deal for Halladay, then I guess Abreu can return to right and Matthews could remain in left.
RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09
I blog about the Angels at The Diamond Aces
Gary? Is that you?
Sometimes I wish Rex would be quiet
by gitchogritchoffmypetis on Dec 3, 2009 1:53 PM PST up reply actions
After reading the DiGiovanna article,
I glean that the Angels are in a fairly hardball negotiating stance with Vlad….We aren’t paying you $12MM, we’re not giving you three years, so we will allow you to leave without hinderance (other team forfeiting draft picks) if there is a better deal out there for you.
With Oliver’s situation, I felt that they were being respectful to him by at least making it an easier decision for another team to offer him a job if he does not like what the Angels offer him.
In both instances, I suspect the Angels made what they considered to be fair offers with absolutely clear consciences if they are refused.
I anticipate that both Lackey and Figgins are gone, meaning four draft picks plus what might be our own pick if we don’t sign any other free agents. That’s actually a lot of fairly early draft picks when you think about it.
Free Agents
meaning four draft picks plus what might be our own pick if we don’t sign any other free agents. That’s actually a lot of fairly early draft picks when you think about it.
This is only true if the team or teams that sign Lackey and Figgins finished 16th to 30th in the standings in 2009. If the Mets sign both their 1st round picks are not surrendered. Got to hope the Dodgers, Yankees or Red Sox sign them.
With regard to
worst thing that would happen is vlad comes back for another year.If the Angels had offerred Vlad arbitration then the Angels would have spent all their extra available payroll $’s on an aged DH and would not have addressed the losses of Lackey, Figgins or Oliver.
LOW PICKS
If it is a low-ranked team sigining Lackey or Figgins we do not get their FIRST round pick but we do get a sandwich pick and their 2nd round pick.
I might be in the minority
But I hope Lackey, if not signed by the Halos goes somewhere like Detroit or Baltimore. And Figgins goes to the White Sox or the Braves.
Those might net the Halos some pretty decent draft picks.
RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09
I blog about the Angels at The Diamond Aces
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